Latest news with #G7FinanceMinistersandCentralBankGovernors'Meeting
Toronto Sun
04-06-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
Bank of Canada set for interest rate decision as tariff uncertainty persists
Published Jun 04, 2025 • 1 minute read Canada Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem speaks during the close of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Banff, Alberta, on May 22, 2025. Photo by DAVE CHIDLEY / AFP via Getty Images OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada is set to make an interest rate decision today as the United States' trade dispute continues to cloud the economic outlook. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account A poll of economists provided by LSEG Data & Analytics ahead of the decision shows they expect the central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent. The central bank decided to hold its key rate steady at its last meeting in April, saying at the time that it needed more clarity on how the Canada-U.S. trade dispute would impact the economy. Statistics Canada said Friday that real gross domestic product topped expectations in the first quarter of the year as businesses rushed to get ahead of the tariff impact. The Bank of Canada said in April it would be less forward-looking for the time being and did not publish a central forecast for inflation and economic growth amid the considerable uncertainty. Annual inflation cooled to 1.7 per cent in April, dragged down by the removal of the consumer carbon price even as underlying inflationary pressures ticked higher. Columnists Sunshine Girls Crime Sunshine Girls Other Sports
Toronto Sun
23-05-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
Canada recession has already begun as trade war rages on, economists say
Published May 23, 2025 • 2 minute read Canada Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem speaks during the close of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Banff, Alberta, on May 22, 2025. Photo by DAVE CHIDLEY / AFP via Getty Images Canada's economy is likely in the early stages of a recession, according to forecasters, as unemployment rises and exports fall because of a trade war with the US. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say output will shrink 1% on an annualized basis in the second quarter and 0.1% in the third quarter, a technical recession. Exports are tumbling — they will drop 7.4% on an annualized basis in the current quarter, forecasters estimate, after President Donald Trump's tariff threats caused US importers to pull forward their shipments earlier in the year. But exporters should be able stage a modest recovery, starting later in the year. The trade dispute with Canada's closest trading partner is hitting the labor market and household consumption. Economists now say unemployment will rise to 7.2% in the second half of the year before easing in 2026. They expect inflation to run above the central bank's target, at 2.1% in the third quarter and 2.2% in the fourth. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. That puts the Bank of Canada in a difficult position, with now a less than 30% probability of a change to interest rates at its June meeting, according to Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability. 'The more we can get uncertainty down, the more we can be more forward-looking as we move forward in our monetary policy decisions,' Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday. Businesses and consumers are waiting for more clarity on what the US relationship looks like before making major decisions. That uncertainty has contributed to a notable slowdown in the housing market, with home prices and sales falling. Economists say housing starts may be weaker in the second half of 2025 than in the second quarter. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'I know Canada is keen to sit down with the US and work through our differences and come to an agreement,' Macklem said. 'If we can get that clarity, we can get back to growth. Clearly if things move in the other direction, yes, it will be worse.' RECOMMENDED VIDEO Prime Minister Mark Carney will get another chance to meet with Trump soon, with the US president set to make his first trip to Canada since returning to power when he attends the G-7 leaders' summit in Alberta in June. But Carney has warned that the long period of deepening integration between the two countries is over. Economists see gross domestic product rising 1.2% in 2025 and 1% in 2026. Those figures are in line with the previous Bloomberg survey. The survey of 34 economists was conducted from May 16 to May 21. Canada Toronto Maple Leafs Sunshine Girls Editorial Cartoons Toronto & GTA
Kuwait Times
22-05-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
Weak US economic outlook persists despite trade truce
ALBERTA: Jerome Powell (left), Chair of the US Federal Reserve, speaks with Christine Lagarde (right), President of the European Central Bank during the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Banff, Alberta, Canada, on May 20, 2025. -- AFP BENGALURU: The outlook for the US economy remains weak despite a temporary cooling of the US-China trade war, a Reuters poll of economists showed, with a debate over the country's fiscal health hanging in the balance. A 90-day truce to temporarily slash steep US-China import duties has marginally reduced US recession risks, but the fiscal outlook is worsening ahead of an imminent vote in Congress on President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill following a sovereign credit rating downgrade from Moody's on Friday. Economists in a May 14-21 Reuters poll were unanimous the Trump administration's policies have hurt the economy, with over 55 percent saying 'significantly hurt'. But after big downgrades to their growth and upgrades to inflation forecasts in April, economists kept these broadly unchanged in May. 'Moody's is likely sending a message that the proposed tax bill is fiscally profligate... unless there is an abrupt move, the risk is that by the time Washington gets serious about the US' fiscal problems, tariffs might be the only available lever to meaningfully reduce the deficit,' noted Aditya Bhave, a senior US economist at Bank of America. 'Another round of large tariff hikes would probably be more painful for the economy than a less expansionary fiscal package.' The economy, which contracted 0.3 percent last quarter largely due to a record surge in imports, is forecast to grow 1.5 percent this quarter. It would grow just 1.4 percent this year, a sharp slowdown from last year's 2.8 percent. Next year, it was forecast to expand 1.5 percent. The median probability of a US recession over the coming year did, however, decline to 35 percent from 45 percent in April. Economists barely changed their views on inflation, expected to average above the Fed's 2 percent target until at least 2027, echoing consumer expectations which are already at a multi-decade high. 'The bad news is the detente virtually locks in a slow growth, sticky inflation environment as the base case for the US economy. The effective tariff rate at 13 percent is still substantially higher than where it was coming into the year (around 2 percent)... Policy uncertainty is high and recession risks remain elevated,' said Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. Fed officials have highlighted elevated risks of a resurgence in inflation, primarily due to U.S. tariff policies and appear to be in no hurry to cut rates anytime soon. The federal funds rate has stayed in a 4.25 percent-4.50 percent range since the start of this year. Just over half of economists, 52 of 103, predicted the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would resume cutting its key interest rate next quarter, most likely in September. That was in line with interest rate futures pricing. 'The two pauses (on tariffs) add a new degree of uncertainty to the outlook for both growth and inflation,' said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial. 'FOMC participants insist on seeing all of the inflation directly attributable to tariffs before cutting rates so they might have to wait until the fourth quarter, or even early next year, before they have sufficient clarity to do anything.' — Reuters
Toronto Sun
22-05-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
G7 draft warns of 'excessive imbalances' in global economy
Published May 22, 2025 • 2 minute read Francois-Philippe Champagne (right), Minister of Finance and National Revenue, scrums as he walks at the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Banff, Alberta, Wednesday, May 21, 2025. Photo by COLE BURSTON / AFP / Getty Images Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven nations pledged to address 'excessive imbalances' in the global economy, an effort clearly aimed at China, though a draft communique seen by Bloomberg News omitted the name of the country. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account The officials said there was a need for a common understanding of how 'non-market policies and practices' undermine international economic security. They said they agreed 'on the importance of a level playing field and taking a broadly coordinated approach to address the harm caused by those who do not abide by the same rules and lack transparency.' The remarks were part of a final communique being prepared to summarize three days of meetings between officials from the G7 countries — the U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan — in Banff, Alberta. The draft calls for an analysis of 'market concentration and international supply chain resilience.' The statement also recognized an increase in so-called international low-value shipments, also referred to as 'de minimis' packages, typically from Chinese retailers such as Temu and Shein. It said these shipments have the potential to overwhelm customs and tax collection systems and to be used for smuggling illicit material, including drugs. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The draft communique, however, glossed over the acrimony and deep disagreements between the allies over the Trump administration's trade tariffs. A year ago in Italy, the group of finance chiefs reiterated a commitment to a 'free, fair, and rules-based multilateral system,' but in Banff the pledge was diluted to 'pursuing our shared policy objectives.' The statement referred to concerns flagged by international organizations when the group last met in April over how policy uncertainty was weighing on growth, but played down how those risks have evolved. 'We acknowledge that economic policy uncertainty has declined from its peak, and we will work together to achieve further progress,' the draft said. On Ukraine, the draft said the G7 nations will look at options to ramp up sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire is not reached, though it did not address specific measures like lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Some members of the bloc, including the UK, have been pushing to revisit the cap amid a lack of progress on the talks. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The draft condemns 'Russia's continued brutal war against Ukraine' and said the G7 'remains committed to unwavering support for Ukraine.' It did not include the word 'illegal,' which has been used in previous communiques to describe the invasion and has been a divisive issue during the drafting between the Europeans and the U.S. A statement from the G7 foreign ministers issued earlier this year also omitted the word. Russia's sovereign assets located in G7 jurisdictions 'will remain immobilized until Russia ends its aggression and pays for the damage it has caused Ukraine,' the draft said. It also included a section on working to rebuild Ukraine in the wake of the fighting there. Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko attended the summit as a guest of the Canadian government and addressed the assembled officials during their meetings. Sunshine Girls Columnists Sunshine Girls World Editorials
Straits Times
21-05-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
G7 finance leaders try to downplay tariff disputes, find consensus
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors sit down for their first meeting at the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Banff, Alberta, Canada, May 21, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol G7 finance ministers and central bank governors sit down for their first meeting at the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Banff, Alberta, Canada, May 21, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol G7 finance ministers and central bank governors pose for a group photo during the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Banff, Alberta, Canada, May 21, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol BANFF, Alberta - Finance leaders from the Group of Seven industrialized democracies sought on Wednesday to downplay disputes over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and find some common ground to keep the forum viable as they met in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Participants said the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors were striving to issue a joint communique covering non-tariff issues, including support for Ukraine, the threat from non-market economic policies of countries including China, and combating financial crimes and drug trafficking. The finance leaders want to avoid a fracturing of the group similar to the last time Canada hosted the G7 in 2018 during Trump's first term, when his initial steel and aluminum tariffs and U.S. opposition to climate change language made a joint statement impossible. That meeting, described as the "G6 plus one," ended with Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and Italy expressing "unanimous concern and disappointment" over Trump's tariffs. Trump's tariffs are far more extensive this time, but G7 sources said there was an effort to find compromise with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. "Italy continues to work so that the final compromise communiqué can be reached. A step we consider crucial," Italian Economy and Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in a social media post. But G7 delegation sources said it remained unclear whether the leaders could agree on joint communique language. One European source said, for example, U.S. officials wanted to delete language describing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as "illegal" from the draft. Delegates will also discuss a possible lowering of the $60-a-barrel G7 price cap on Russian crude oil. "We expect a thorny discussion on the price cap," one of the officials said. The EU is pushing to lower the price level as it works on an 18th package of sanctions against Russia aimed at Russian energy and the financing of sanctions circumvention. "There is no agreement yet on the communique but it's fundamental that we get this communique. It would be serious if not agreed," a European official said. "At the end of the day, we are only seven countries." CALMING INFLUENCE A second European official said Bessent's participation in the meeting and efforts to try to find common ground provided some comfort to the group. "Bessent is the official who is the most political and flexible in the American administration," the official said. "At the dinner last night, Bessent was very open and not rigid. He talked about working for a solution." Negotiations over a joint statement were expected to continue into Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. A U.S. Treasury spokesperson declined to comment on the G7 deliberations. A U.S. source briefed on Bessent's positions said on Monday that issuing a joint statement depended on whether it served U.S. priorities. At the same time, Bessent was holding bilateral meetings with G7 counterparts and met with Germany's new Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil early on Wednesday. A German source at the G7 meeting described the discussion as an open and constructive exchange that lasted longer than planned, and the two men agreed to meet again in Washington after Bessent extended an invitation. Bessent was also meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and was expected to meet later with Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne. While that discussion is expected to focus heavily on Trump's steep new tariffs, the U.S. source said that no bilateral trade deals would be announced at the G7 meeting. Japan, Germany, France and Italy all face a potential doubling of U.S. duties to 20% or more in early July. Britain negotiated a limited trade deal that leaves it saddled with 10% U.S. tariffs on most goods, and host Canada is still struggling with Trump's separate 25% duty on many exports. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
