21-03-2025
March Madness: Xavier vs. Illinois odds, picks and predictions
The 11th-seeded Xavier Musketeers (22-11) and sixth-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) meet in an NCAA Tournament first-round game in the Midwest Region Friday. Tip-off from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Xavier vs. Illinois odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Xavier shook off a slow start to take down the Texas Longhorns 86-80 in a First Four game on Wednesday night, outscoring the Longhorns 47-33 in the second half. The Musketeers covered as a 2.5-point favorite as the Over (151.5) hit. G Marcus Foster led the charge with 22 points and 8 rebounds as Xavier has now won at least 1 game in its last 6 trips to the NCAA Tournament.
Illinois returns to the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight year after last season's Elite 8 run. The Fighting Illini finished the regular season strong with 3 straight wins, including 2 over ranked opponents, before tying for seventh in the Big Ten. Their conference tournament run ended with an 88-65 loss to the Maryland Terrapins in the quarterfinals. Freshman G Kasparas Jakucionis leads 5 players averaging in double figures at 15 points per game (PPG).
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll
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Xavier vs. Illinois odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:36 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Xavier +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Illinois -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
: Xavier +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Illinois -160 (bet $160 to win $100) Against the spread (ATS) : Xavier +3.5 (-115) | Illinois -3.5 (-105)
: Xavier +3.5 (-115) | Illinois -3.5 (-105) Over/Under (O/U): 160.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Xavier vs. Illinois picks and predictions
Prediction
Xavier 82, Illinois 79
BET XAVIER (+135).
Momentum is huge in college basketball, and Xavier has plenty of it. The Musketeers showed their toughness with a comeback win over Texas in the First Four, making it 8 wins in their last 9 games. They've also covered the spread in 7 of those. Experience matters in March, and they've got it with fifth-year senior F Zach Freemantle leading the way at 17.3 PPG. Xavier can score too, putting up 78 PPG—second-best in the Big East.
Illinois might be the Big Ten's top-scoring team at 83.8 PPG, but they've struggled against good defenses—Maryland held them to just 65 in the Big Ten Tournament. Plus, their top 3 scorers are either freshmen, or playing in their first year of college ball. That's a lot of inexperience to lean on in a high-pressure game.
With Xavier playing great basketball, having the edge in experience, and consistently covering spreads, I like them to keep it rolling. Taking the Musketeers at plus odds on the moneyline feels like the right move.
PASS.
You may feel more comfortable taking them plus the points, that's understandable. I'd take the better odds on the moneyline.
BET OVER 160.5 (-105).
Both teams know how to score, which makes the Over worth a look. Illinois has hit the Over in 7 of its last 10 games, while Xavier has gone Over in 11 of its last 14 contests. The Musketeers put up 78 PPG, and the Fighting Illini haven't been great defensively, giving up 74.6 PPG — 14th in the Big Ten.
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