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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
4 key Senate seats Republicans aim to flip in 2026 midterms to expand their majority
Republican Sen. Tim Scott's goal in next year's midterm elections is not only to defend the GOP's 53-47 margin in the Senate, but to expand the majority. Scott, the conservative senator from South Carolina, told Fox News Digital soon after taking over late last year as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) that he aimed to increase the GOP's control in the chamber to at least 55 seats. And he's standing by his goal. "The bottom line is, I believe that we can defend our current seats while adding at least two more seats to our numbers," the NRSC chair told Fox News Digital earlier this year. This Republican Just Jumped Into Battleground Georgia's High-profile Senate Race Senate Republicans enjoyed a favorable map in the 2024 cycle as they flipped four seats from blue to red to win back the majority. Read On The Fox News App But the party in power—clearly the Republicans right now—traditionally faces political headwinds in the midterm elections. Nevertheless, a current read of the 2026 map indicates the GOP may be able to go on offense in some key states. In battleground Georgia, which President Donald Trump narrowly carried in last year's White House race, Republicans view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent up for re-election next year. Trump-backed Rnc Chair Jumps Into The Nation's 'Marquee' Senate Race They're also targeting battleground Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring at the end of next year, and swing state New Hampshire, where longtime Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen decided against seeking a fourth six-year term in the Senate. Also on the NRSC's target list is blue-leaning Minnesota, where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith isn't running for re-election. At the top of their list is Ossoff, who narrowly won election to the Senate in a January 2021 runoff contest. But Ossoff is off to a very hot fundraising start, and a GOP primary in Georgia between Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, and former college and professional football coach Derek Dooley, is starting to turn combustible. Dnc Chair Tells Fox News Digital Democrats Have Hit 'Rock Bottom' - Here's His Plan To Rebound Republicans are also confident they can flip Michigan, another battleground Trump narrowly carried last November. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, the 2024 GOP Senate nominee who lost last year's race by a razor-thin margin, has at this point cleared the Republican primary field, thanks in great part to Trump's endorsement. Democrats, meanwhile, have a very competitive primary on their hands. The primary race includes three well-known Democrats: Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who enjoys the backing of progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. With Shaheen, who made history as the first woman in the nation's history to win election as a governor and a senator, out of the running in New Hampshire, the GOP is hoping to win a Senate election in the Granite State for the first time in 16 years. They're encouraged by the gains Trump made in New Hampshire in last year's election, as he improved on his showing from four years earlier and came close to carrying the state. But four-term Rep. Chris Pappas' announcement in early April that he would run to succeed Shaheen has cleared the Democratic primary field, as of now, of any potential rivals for the party's Senate nomination. Meanwhile, a Republican primary in the state—where the GOP hasn't won a Senate race in 15 years—is heating up between former Sen. Scott Brown and state Sen. Dan Innis, with the possibility of more candidates entering the race. In Minnesota, the leading candidates in the Democratic primary to succeed Smith are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig. Former professional basketball player Royce White, who won the 2024 Senate nomination in Minnesota, and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are currently running in the GOP primary. But another Republican Senate hopeful may soon enter the field. While Republicans will work to defy political history in next year's midterms, they point to the Democratic Party's current brand issues. "Democrats have historically low approval ratings because candidates like Jon Ossoff and Chris Pappas keep prioritizing radical policies like men in women's sports, protecting sanctuary cities for criminal illegal aliens, and raising taxes on working families," NRSC communications director Joanna Rodriguez argued in a statement to Fox News. And Rodriguez touted that "Republicans are delivering on policies that keep Americans safe and let families and workers keep more of their hard-earned paychecks. Voters will reward us for it in 2026."Original article source: 4 key Senate seats Republicans aim to flip in 2026 midterms to expand their majority
CNN
6 days ago
- Politics
- CNN
How Texas' redistricting effort is having major implications across the US
The outcome of the political battle over Texas' redistricting effort is already having major implications across the country. Other Republican-dominated states are considering following Texas' lead as Democratic governors weigh their options to retaliate with their own mid-decade redistricting efforts. The Texas legislature, meanwhile, is at a standstill after House Democrats fled the state in a bid to block the Republican effort to redraw congressional districts in the GOP's favor. President Donald Trump has pushed the redistricting effort, and Gov. Greg Abbott called the 30-day special session in which the GOP unveiled proposed maps that could shift as many as five US House seats into the Republican column. Abbott is now threatening to remove the Democratic lawmakers who left the state in a bid to block the House from voting on those new maps. Here's a look at what's happening in Texas, and why it matters: Congressional district lines are required to be redrawn once a decade, after the census. But mid-decade maneuvers like the one in Texas are unusual. Texas Republicans want to pad the US House GOP majority ahead of next November's midterm elections by increasing the number of seats Democrats need to flip — currently three — to claim House control. Democrats face a much stiffer challenge in winning back the Senate. But if they win the House majority, it would give the party a foothold for Trump's final two years in office. Democrats could slow or halt the president's legislative agenda and use House committees to investigate his administration's actions, much as they did in the last two years of Trump's first term, from early 2019 to early 2021. The proposed maps unveiled last week by Texas' majority-Republican legislature would aggressively redraw the state's congressional districts to make five seats much more likely to favor GOP candidates. The new Texas map features 30 districts that Trump would have won in 2024 if the map was in place, up from 27 under the current district lines. In total, there are five more seats that Trump won by more than 10 percentage points, according to data from the Texas Legislative Council. The proposed map eliminates the seat of Rep. Greg Casar, who would likely be forced into a primary with another liberal Democrat, Rep. Lloyd Doggett, in the Austin area. Republicans also propose merging the Houston-area seat of Rep. Al Green with a vacant seat held by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died in office earlier this year. Green's district was altered more than any other sitting member in the plan. The map would also make two south Texas seats held by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez more Republican-leaning. But multiple Democrats view the seats as still in reach for the two centrist members who typically performed ahead of statewide or national Democrats. Democrats are in the minority in the Texas House, but they hold enough seats that they can deprive the chamber of the number of legislators necessary to do business under House rules. That's why many fled the state on Sunday, with most flying to Illinois and others traveling to New York, outside the reach of Texas law enforcement. The departed lawmakers could face $500-a-day fines that can't be paid with campaign funds — though the House Democrats and their supporters are already raising money to help cover those fines. Former US Rep. Beto O'Rourke told CNN his political action committee, Powered By People, which raised more than $700,000 for state House Democrats during a quorum-break in 2021, will 'raise whatever it takes, for as long as it takes, to help these Texas Democrats with their lodging, with being able to feed themselves, supporting them with these $500-a-day fines.' 'We have their backs all the way,' he said. Meanwhile, Democratic governors in deep-blue states are plotting retribution. The governors of California, Illinois, Maryland New Jersey and New York have suggested they will explore redrawing their own congressional district maps to add more Democratic-leaning seats, or left the door open to doing so. 'The gloves are off, and I say, bring it on,' New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said Monday. Once a critical swing state, increasingly red Ohio is required to redraw its congressional districts this fall because the 2022 map was struck down as unconstitutional by the state Supreme Court. The makeup of the Buckeye State's high court has changed since that ruling, and the new court is seen as much more likely to green-light a map that favors Republicans, who hold 10 of the state's 15 congressional seats. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently floated the idea of a mid-cycle redistricting in his state, too. 'I think the state malapportioned,' he told reporters in July, adding it would be 'appropriate to do a redistricting here in the mid-decade.' Punchbowl News reported the White House is pushing Missouri to redraw its districts to target one of just two Democratic-held seats, that of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, in a state where the GOP holds the other six House seats. The White House has also urged Indiana to redraw districts in which Democrats hold two of nine seats. Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan's northwest Indiana district would likely be the target if the Hoosier State were to do so. The redistricting battles cannot carry on without deadlines. In many states, including Texas, candidates must file for next year's primary ballots before the end of this year. Abbott on Monday indicated he could seek more extreme measures than daily $500 fines to try to force Democrats' hands or circumvent their quorum-break. He threatened to remove Democrats from the state House if they don't return by 4 p.m. ET, when the legislature is scheduled to convene in Austin. Abbott told Fox News that the Democratic lawmakers had 'absconded' from their responsibilities. 'I believe they have forfeited their seats in the state legislature because they're not doing the job they were elected to do,' he said. CNN's David Wright, Kaanita Iyer, Sarah Ferris and Ethan Cohen contributed to this report.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Which way will the Senate swing in 2026? Minnesota is on the table
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump's agenda in the second half of his second term will hinge on whether Republicans can maintain control of Congress in next year's midterm elections. In the Senate, where the GOP has a slim 53-47 majority, being the party in charge is vital for the president and his ability to pass key legislation priorities and confirm nominees, including any potential Supreme Court vacancies. Heading into 2026, congressional Republicans look to keep their legislative advantage but face the challenge of precedent. Often, the party that does not hold the White House fares better in midterm congressional elections. In need of a pick-me-up after last year's bruising presidential and congressional elections, Democrats are trying to flip the upper chamber back to blue by winning a handful of states scattered from the South to the Great Lakes. More: What to expect when you're expecting a GOP trifecta For their part, Republicans trying to defend their majority in next November's races must first weather some base-splitting primaries in which established GOP incumbents hope to hold on against challengers from inside their own party. Here are 11 Senate races to watch across the country heading into the 2026 midterm elections. 1. North Carolina More: Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper announces run for Senate in a win for Democrats North Carolina's two-term senior senator, Republican Thom Tillis, announced in June that he would not be seeking reelection. His news, which Tillis called 'not a hard choice,' came as debates over Trump's sweeping tax, spending and policy bill engulfed Congress and pitted Republicans against one another. The news was music to Democrats' ears. Already a top target for the liberal party in next year's midterms, the North Carolina race was set to be one of the most competitive Senate battles in 2026, even with Tillis on the ballot. More: After Lara Trump opts out, president endorses RNC Chair Whatley for NC Senate race Now, the open seat has attracted high-profile contenders on both sides of the aisle. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, announced his campaign formally on July 28 after weeks of speculation. On the Republican side, Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law and former co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said she considered jumping in. But after she announced July 24 that she would not run for the seat, President Trump gave his backing to Republican National Committee chair and former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley. Primary elections will be held March 3. 2. Michigan In Michigan, another retiring incumbent has set the stage for a toss-up race next year. Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat, announced in January that he would not seek a third term representing the Great Lakes State in the Senate. More: Michigan's Gary Peters won't run for US Senate reelection next year His absence leaves the race open for either party's taking. Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman with Trump's endorsement, is his party's expected nominee. Rogers ran in 2024 and lost narrowly to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin. Among Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow lead the pack of 2026 candidates. Primary elections in the state will be held Aug. 4. Note to readers: If you appreciate the work we do here at The St. Cloud Times, please consider subscribing yourself or giving the gift of a subscription to someone you know. 3. Georgia Georgia's Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff must fend off a pack of conservative lawmakers to hang on to his seat in 2026. Alongside fellow Georgia Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock, Ossoff won a runnoff election in January 2021 that secured him a first term in Congress and his party a chamber majority. Once again, his race will be key in determining whether Democrats win control of the Senate. Republicans looking to unseat him include Rep. Buddy Carter, a former pharmacist who represents the Savannah area. Carter was first to throw his red hat in the ring. But others, including Rep. Mike Collins, have since joined the contest. Carter and Collins are coveting Trump's support, an endorsement that could carry weight with Georgia's deep-red electorate pockets. Georgia's primary elections are set for May 19. 4. Texas Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn stands a good chance of winning a fifth term against a Democratic challenger next November in the red-leaning Lone Star State. But first, he must make it through what is promising to be a tough primary against the state's attorney general, Ken Paxton. Cornyn has served in the Senate since 2002, but early polls showed him down double digits to Paxton. More: Texas AG Ken Paxton's wife files for divorce 'on biblical grounds' National Republicans have expressed concern that Paxton, who has faced indictments, impeachment and, more recently, a very public divorce, could cost the GOP their safely held Texas seat in a general election. Democrat and former Rep. Colin Allred, who ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, has announced his campaign for 2026. Texas state Rep. James Talarico has said he is 'seriously considering' a run as well. More: Former congressman Colin Allred launches 2026 campaign for US Senate Primary elections in the Lone Star State are set for March 3. 5. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, has also drawn a GOP challenger in his 2026 bid for reelection. Paul Dans, the original author of Project 2025, a sweeping conservative agenda to overhaul the federal government, announced his candidacy at an event in Charleston July 30. More: Lindsey Graham gets Republican challenger: Project 2025 author to announce Senate bid The primary contest will likely pit MAGA voters in the Palmetto State against one another. Though Graham has been a regular target of criticism from Trump − displeased by the lawmaker at times breaking from the GOP leader − he is now an ally to the president and has already received Trump's 'complete and total endorsement.' Dans' primary challenge will be an uphill battle. Should Graham come out on top, he is heavily favored to win a fifth term representing the Palmetto State. A pack of Democrats are vying to face Graham or Dans in the general, though South Carolina is generally considered a safely red seat. Both party primaries will be held June 9. 6. Maine Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is about to wrap her fifth term in the Senate, and while she has yet to formally announce her bid for reelection, many colleagues expect her to run again. Her position as one of the upper chamber's most independent voices has kept her in favor, and in office, with her left-leaning state, though Democrats still see this upcoming race as one of their top pickup opportunities if two-term Gov. Janet Mills decides to run. Collins has garnered a reputation for being one of the few congressional Republicans willing to tell Trump no. She voted against two of his major legislative priorities this summer – a sweeping tax and spending bill, as well as a $9 billion cut to public broadcasting and foreign aid funding – and has openly criticized some of the president's nominees. More: 'See you in court.' Trump, Maine governor clash in tense exchange at White House Willingness to oppose Trump typically comes with the president's full public ire – and often a MAGA-aligned primary opponent. But Collins is the only Republican senator to have won a state in which Democrats won the popular vote in 2024. Her unique position seems to, at least for now, have kept Trump from speaking out against who many view as the GOP's best chance to keep their seat in Maine. Several Democratic candidates have announced campaigns against Collins, including David Costello, who ran unsuccessfully against Maine's Independent Sen. Angus King in 2024. All eyes are most focused on Mills, the state governor who has also tussled with Trump but hasn't yet said whether she will run. Maine will have its primaries on June 9. 7. Minnesota Minnesota's Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced earlier this year that she plans to retire at the end of her term, calling the decision "entirely personal." With the state's blue tilt, Smith's seat has a good chance of staying in Democrats' hands. 'Entirely personal': Democrat Tina Smith to not seek reelection in 2026 Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Annie Craig are among the front-runners for their party's nomination. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' running mate, opted back in February not to run for the Senate. On the Republican side, former NBA player Royce White is running again after losing his bid against Sen. Amy Klobuchar in 2024. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze has also announced his campaign for the GOP nomination. The Minnesota primaries will be held Aug. 11. 8. Ohio The Buckeye State represents one of Democrats' few pickup opportunities, and even then it will not be an easy flip. Republican Sen. Jon Husted was picked by Ohio's governor to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance at the start of the year, and Husted will be on the ballot next November to keep his spot. Ohio has become reliably red in recent years, making the fight to flip it tough for Democrats. Their best shot probably is former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his bid for reelection last year to Sen. Bernie Moreno. Axios reported that Brown met with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in late July as part of the top Senate Democrat's efforts to lobby Brown to run again. 9. New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire announced she would not be seeking another term in 2026 either. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who launched his campaign in April, is widely seen as a strong contender to succeed Shaheen. More: Former GOP Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown running for Senate in New Hampshire Republican Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and former ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa in Trump's first term, is among a handful of candidates competing on the GOP side. Like Minnesota, Cook Political Report has rated New Hampshire's race leaning Democrat. 10. Iowa In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican, has the advantage, with Cook Political Report rating her race likely Republican. Three Democrats so far have launched bids in hopes of beating those odds: Nathan Sage, the former chamber of commerce director from Knoxville; state Rep. J.D. Scholten; and state Sen. Zach Wahls. More: Iowa Democratic Rep. and minor league pitcher J.D. Scholten to run against Sen. Joni Ernst Trump's sweeping tax, spending and policy bill, passed into law earlier this summer, is expected to be a defining issue in Iowa's race. Ernst was one of 50 Senate Republicans who voted in favor of the legislation, which her Democratic opponents decried as a move "to gut Medicaid for hundreds of thousands of Iowa children and families." Iowa's primary is set for June 2. 11. Nebraska Nebraska is widely seen as a Republican stronghold with incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, though there could be a surprisingly competitive race in 2026 with Independent candidate Dan Osborn jumping back into a statewide election. More: Nebraska independent Dan Osborn could be poised to shake up U.S. Senate Osborn came within 7 percentage points of beating Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, a closer-than-expected margin in the GOP-dominated state. Osborn, a former labor leader, is a registered Independent but received campaign contributions from Democrats in his last campaign (money he told NBC he did not ask for). Ricketts, a former Nebraska governor and part owner with his family of the Chicago Cubs, is running for a full term after being appointed to the job in January 2023 upon the resignation of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse. Sign up for our alerts to receive the latest updates on important news. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who will win Senate majority in 11 2026 key races, including Minnesota
Yahoo
03-08-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Which way will Senate swing in 2026? Here are 11 pivotal races that will decide.
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump's agenda in the second half of his second term will hinge on whether Republicans can maintain control of Congress in next year's midterm elections. In the Senate, where the GOP currently has a slim 53 to 47 majority, being the party in charge is vital for the president and his ability to pass key legislation priorities, confirm nominees, including any potential Supreme Court vacancies. Heading into 2026, congressional Republicans look to keep their legislative advantage but face the challenge of precedent. Often, the party that does not hold the White House – Democrats, currently – fares better in midterm congressional elections. In need of a pick me up after last year's bruising presidential and congressional elections, Democrats are trying to flip the upper chamber back to blue by winning a handful of states scattered from the South to the Great Lakes. More: What to expect when you're expecting a GOP trifecta For their part, Republicans trying to defend their majority in next November's races must first weather some base-splitting primaries, in which established GOP incumbents hope to hold on against challengers from inside their own party. Here are 11 Senate races to watch across the country heading into the 2026 midterm elections. 1. North Carolina More: Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper announces run for Senate in a win for Democrats North Carolina's two-term senior senator, Republican Thom Tillis, announced in June he would not be seeking reelection. His news, which Tillis called 'not a hard choice,' came as debates over Trump's sweeping tax, spending and policy bill engulfed Congress and pitted GOP members against one another. The news was music to Democrats' ears. Already a top target for the liberal party in next year's midterms, the North Carolina race was set to be one of the most competitive Senate battles in 2026, even with Tillis on the ballot. More: After Lara Trump opts out, president endorses RNC Chair Whatley for NC Senate race Now, the open seat has attracted high-profile contenders on both sides of the aisle. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, announced his campaign formally on July 28, following weeks of speculation. On the Republican side, Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law and former co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said she considered jumping in. However, after she announced July 24 she would not run for the seat in North Carolina, President Trump gave his backing to Republican National Committee chair and former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley. Primary elections in the state will be held March 3. 2. Michigan In Michigan, another retiring incumbent has set the stage for a toss-up race next year. Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat, announced in January he would not seek a third term representing the Great Lakes State in the Senate. More: Michigan's Gary Peters won't run for US Senate reelection next year His absence leaves the race open for either party's taking. Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman with Trump's endorsement, is his party's expected nominee. Rogers ran in 2024, narrowly losing to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin. Among Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow lead the pack of 2026 candidates. Primary elections in the state will be held Aug. 4, 2026. 3. Georgia Georgia's Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff must fend off a pack of conservative lawmakers in order to hang onto his seat in 2026. Alongside fellow Georgia Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock, Ossoff's win in a Jan. 2021 runoff election secured him a first term in Congress and his party a chamber majority. Once again, his race will be key in determining whether Democrats win control of the Senate. Republicans looking to unseat him include Rep. Buddy Carter, a former pharmacist who represents the Savannah area. Carter was first to throw his red hat in the ring. But others, including Rep. Mike Collins, have since joined the contest. Both Carter and Collins are coveting Trump's support, an endorsement that could carry weight with Georgia's deep red electorate pockets. Georgia's primary elections are set for May 19. 4. Texas Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn stands a good chance of winning a fifth term against a Democratic challenger next November, in the red-leaning Lone Star State. But first, he must make it through what is promising to be a tough primary against the state's attorney general, Ken Paxton. Cornyn has served in the Senate since 2002, but early polls showed him down double digits to Paxton. More: Texas AG Ken Paxton's wife files for divorce 'on biblical grounds' National Republicans have expressed concern that Paxton, who has faced indictments, impeachment and, more recently, a very public divorce, could cost the GOP their safely held Texas seat in a general election. Democrat and former Rep. Colin Allred, who ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, has announced his campaign for 2026. Texas state Rep. James Talarico has said he is 'seriously considering' a run as well. More: Former congressman Colin Allred launches 2026 campaign for US Senate Primary elections in the Lone Star State are scheduled for March 3. 5. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, has also drawn a GOP challenger in his 2026 bid for reelection. Paul Dans, the original author of Project 2025, a sweeping conservative agenda to overhaul the federal government, announced his entrance into the race at an event in Charleston July 30. More: Lindsey Graham gets Republican challenger: Project 2025 author to announce Senate bid The primary contest will likely pit MAGA voters in the Palmetto State against one another. Though Graham has previously been a regular target of criticism from Trump − displeased by the lawmaker at times breaking from the GOP leader − he is currently an ally to the president and has already received Trump's 'complete and total endorsement.' Dans' primary challenge will be an uphill battle. Should Graham come out on top, he is heavily favored to win a fifth term representing the Palmetto State. A pack of Democrats are vying to face Graham or Dans in the general, though South Carolina is generally considered a safely red seat. Both party primaries will be held June 9. 6. Maine Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is about to wrap her fifth term in the Senate, and while she has yet to formally announce her bid for reelection, many colleagues expect her to run again. Her position as one of the upper chamber's most independent voices has kept her in favor, and in office, with her left-leaning state, though Democrats still see this upcoming race as one of their top pick-up opportunities if two-term Gov. Janet Mills decides to run. Collins has garnered a reputation for being one of the few congressional Republicans willing to tell Trump no. She voted against two of his major legislative priorities this summer – a sweeping tax and spending bill, as well as a $9 billion cut to public broadcasting and foreign aid funding – and has openly criticized some of the president's nominees. More: 'See you in court.' Trump, Maine governor clash in tense exchange at White House Willingness to oppose Trump typically comes with the president's full public ire – and often a MAGA-aligned primary opponent. However, Collins is the only Republican senator to have won a state in which Democrats won the popular vote in 2024. Her unique position seems to, at least for now, have kept Trump from speaking out against who many view as the GOP's best chance to keep their seat in Maine. Several Democratic candidates have announced campaigns against Collins, including David Costello, who ran unsuccessfully against Maine's Independent Sen. Angus King in 2024. All eyes are most focused on Mills, the state governor who has also tussled with Trump but hasn't yet said if she will run. Maine will have its primaries on June 9. 7. Minnesota Minnesota's Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced earlier this year her plan to retire at the end of her current term, calling the decision "entirely personal." With the state's blue tilt, Smith's seat has a good chance of staying in Democrats' hands. More: 'Entirely personal': Democrat Tina Smith to not seek reelection in 2026 Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Annie Craig are among the frontrunners for their party's nomination. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' running mate, opted back in February not to run for Senate. On the Republican side, former NBA player Royce White is running again, after losing his bid against Sen. Amy Klobuchar in 2024. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze has also announced his campaign for the GOP nomination. The Minnesota primaries will be held Aug. 11. 8. Ohio The Buckeye State represents one of Democrats' few pick up opportunities, and even then it will not be an easy flip. Republican Sen. Jon Husted was picked by Ohio's governor to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance at the start of the year, and Husted will be on the ballot next November to keep his spot. Ohio has become reliably red in recent years, making the fight to flip it tough for Democrats. Their best shot likely is former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his bid for reelection last year to Sen. Bernie Moreno. Axios reported that Brown met with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in late July, as part of the top Senate Democrat's efforts to lobby Brown to run again. 9. New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire announced she would not be seeking another term in 2026 either. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who launched his campaign in April, is widely seen as a strong contender to succeed Shaheen. More: Former GOP Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown running for Senate in New Hampshire Republican Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and ex-ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa under Trump's first term, is among a handful of candidates competing on the GOP side. Like Minnesota, Cook Political Report has rated New Hampshire's race leaning Democrat. 10. Iowa In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican, has the advantage, with Cook Political Report rating her race likely Republican. Three Democrats so far have launched bids in hopes of beating those odds: Nathan Sage, the former chamber of commerce director from Knoxville; state Rep. J.D. Scholten; and state Sen. Zach Wahls. More: Iowa Democratic Rep. and minor league pitcher J.D. Scholten to run against Sen. Joni Ernst Trump's sweeping tax, spending and policy bill, passed into law earlier this summer, is expected to be a defining issue in Iowa's race. Ernst was one of 50 Senate Republicans who voted in favor of the legislation, which her Democratic opponents decried as a move "to gut Medicaid for hundreds of thousands of Iowa children and families." The primary in Iowa is scheduled for June 2. 11. Nebraska Nebraska is widely seen as a Republican stronghold with incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, though there could be a surprisingly competitive race in 2026 with Independent candidate Dan Osborn jumping back into a statewide election. More: Nebraska independent Dan Osborn could be poised to shake up U.S. Senate Osborn came within seven percentage points of beating Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, a closer-than-expected margin in the GOP-dominated state. Osborn, a former labor leader, is a registered Independent but received campaign contributions from Democrats in his last campaign (money he told NBC he did not ask for). Ricketts, a former Nebraska governor and part owner with his family of the Chicago Cubs, is running for a full term after being appointed to the job in January of 2023 upon the resignation of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who will win Senate majority in 2026? These are 11 key races to watch.
