Latest news with #GSPC
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why investor sentiment is so bullish despite uncertainty
Markets (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) have rallied despite tariff uncertainty and recession fears. Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist and head of equities at Mariner Wealth Advisors, joins Morning Brief to explain why investor confidence has held steady and why he thinks the fundamentals still look solid. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Where is all of this positive sentiment coming from, right? Given that there are things that in normal circumstances might give investors pause including uncertainty on the tariffs and sort of the economic environment more broadly. What do you think's going on? So well it began certainly after the tariff, you know, timeout, which made a lot of sense because it looked like the tariff rates were going to be just, you know, very difficult, very high rates, could could really slow things down from an economic standpoint. Maybe lead to inflation and after the time out, um a lot of that um kind of pressure has been relieved. And success breeds, you know, confidence. So the market rallied on that, feeling like, hey, the economy continue to grow, it won't be as inflationary and maybe we'll figure this out. And uh, so the market has just surged since then and that's made people feel far more comfortable about where things are. We've maintained confidence quite frankly. So many of our peers, they reduced price targets, they dramatically increased odds of recession and we just thought that was premature, the data looked pretty good throughout. So this was a confidence psychology PE cycle. The data and earnings pretty much, you know, remained intact. Multiples just went all over the map because of this confidence that you're talking about. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
White House has a new take on the markets' mild tariff reaction
Markets (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) have been brushing off President Trump's daily tariff threats. Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul joins Market Domination host Josh Lipton to explain how the White House's read on market reactions sharply contrasts with Wall Street's view. He also discusses the president's new deal with Indonesia and what it could signal. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. markets growing less responsive to ongoing trade talks and there's different views on why that may be. For more, let's get to Yahoo Finance's Washington correspondent. That would be, of course, Ben Worskol. Ben. Hey, Josh. Yes. So this is the question, kind of one of the big questions of the month for markets is sort of why are markets shrugging off this, these tariff threats that I'm on with you pretty much every day to outline, they come kind of every day from Trump. It's a nuanced question for sure. Our colleague Josh Shafer has a smart look at the kind of China aspect of this. But what I'm looking at for a story tomorrow in Yahoo Finance is the White House view of this. And this is important for traders to know because it's essentially 180 degrees away from most of what you're going to hear on Wall Street. The White House case, which has, we've seen in evidence in recent days, and it's gotten sharper, kind of as markets continue to rise, is essentially that the signal we're getting here is that traders are okay with tariffs now. That the traders are saying that they understand what Trump is trying to do with tariffs and that the market reaction is, is, is, is, is, is reflecting that. You see a lot of skepticism from that on Wall Street, who kind of give the opposite view that traders, it's not like traders like tariffs now. They just don't believe Trump is going to follow through. But we're seeing this again and again. Treasury Secretary Scott Beson offered this morning that the markets understand what, what Trump is doing now, which is a clear contrast to April. Somebody's going to be wrong here. These are two sides, and this is, the question is kind of whether this question gets tested. The way it doesn't get tested is if Trump can follow through on different trade deals and lower rates via that route for him. We saw, we saw one pact with Indonesia today. But it does get tested if some of these, these trade deals don't go through, and then Trump is essentially empowered by this view that he, that, that, by not, by, by the market's not rising so far, maybe he can stand firm on tariffs and go forward. Put another way, does the market looking at the Taco trade essentially lessen the chance of Trump, of Trump chickening out? We're seeing some concerns on that front that maybe the markets are underpricing. You were talking about Jamie Diamond earlier. He's offered commentary on this. The markets are complacent in this. This is, this is going to be a big theme of the next few weeks as we get to this August 1st deadline. Ben, just quickly, you mentioned Indonesia there. I want your take because Trump did say he reached this deal with Indonesia. It does sound like we have, have some specifics there. Ben, what are the details? Yeah. So we have some specifics from the White House side on what this Indonesia pact brings forward today. Trump sketched it out to reporters and also on a truth social, two social posts. The headline here is a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods and from, and according to Trump, a 0% tariff on US companies trying to do business. As, as Trump put it, quote, full access to Indonesia. He added in true social that there's other aspects here, $15 billion in Indonesian purchases of US energy, four, four and a half billion dollars in American agriculture, and 50 Boeing jets. The key caveat here is that we do not have confirmation on this from the Indonesian side. This is a trend we've seen where Trump will announce a deal, and then the question is whether the other side has agreed to all the terms here. We saw a little bit of that with Vietnam. But either way, this is a clear indication that this is the sort of model he even, Trump even had a comment about this today, that this is the sort of outline of what he wants with these other deals. Essentially, somewhere around a 20% tariff on coming in, on product coming in, and then a 0% tariff on products going out. It's the sort of same parameters of what he laid out with Vietnam. So, so he's, it comes with sort of Trump is promising other trade deals again ahead of this August 1st deadline, in his view hoping to be kind of this be the, be the model going forward. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
21 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500 targets raised amid market rally: Call of the Day
Wall Street is raising its S&P 500 (^GSPC) targets after a sharp two-month rally, with RBC Capital Markets now calling for 6,250 by year-end. Yahoo Finance Reporter Josh Schafer explains why some strategists still expect volatility ahead amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief: Market Sunrise here. It's time now for our call of the day. Wall Street growing increasingly bullish on its full-year outlook for the S&P 500 amid a massive rally for the benchmark index over the past two months. RBC capital markets, the latest firm to boost their S&P 500 target, RBC's head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, writing in a note to clients on Sunday, they've raised their year-end target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730 with a target reflecting a roughly flat return for the rest of the year. Calvasina writes she feels neutral on equities. Now you can see on your screen here, RBC is one of nine firms now that have raised their S&P 500 target over the last several months amid this massive rally that we've seen in the market, but really what Calvasina is sort of expressing here, they think that the rally might be perhaps overextended at this point or at least see a little bit of chop. Ed Yardney of Yardney Research, who's also on our chart there at 6,500, pointed out that it's been a V-shaped recovery for stocks since April, but he wrote in a note to clients on Sunday, even his path to 6,500 doesn't look very linear right now. Yardney noted that instead of a V-shape, we might start turning into a little bit of a square root shape here where stocks have come all the way back up and maybe we go flat for a little bit. Key right now of what strategists are watching is essentially the tariff back and forth. Someone like Yardney had expected the tariff back and forth or the quote Trump tariff turmoil, as he calls it, to be over by now. But we're in the middle of July, we now have an August 1st deadline coming, and it remains unclear exactly when this is going to be solved. So for now, perhaps maybe wait and see and a little bit of chop with the market near record highs. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the stock market has shrugged off Trump's latest tariff threats
President Trump is once again turning up the tariff dial, but stocks aren't reacting nearly as strongly as they did back in April. In recent days, Trump has written letters threatening 30% duties on goods from Mexico and the European Union while also warning of 35% tariffs on Canadian imports. On Monday, he added the potential for 100% duties on goods from Russia. A few months back, similar headlines were driving the market action. Now, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) are hovering near record highs despite the news. Perhaps part of this is the so-called TACO trade, a calling card for investors to stay invested because "Trump always chickens out" on his highest tariff threats. But Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson points out that what's at play is just math. The recent tariff announcements have said nothing about China, and as our chart below from Wilson shows, that's what matters to the widest array of industries. Wilson segmented various industries into different subsectors of exposure to tariffs. Seven categories, including technology and semiconductors, have "more material risk," meaning import exposure in that group from China is more than 15% of the global total of imports. In other words, tariffs on goods from China would hurt sectors like tech more than tariffs on nearly any other country listed in Wilson's work. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet "The more material trade-related risk for equity indices would be if tariff rates on China were to increase materially from here," Wilson wrote. "China is significant not only because of the number of industries with tariff cost exposure, but also because of the market cap weighting of those industries, in aggregate." JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli estimates the effective US tariff rate has jumped to 16.9% in July from closer to 13% before President Trump began distributing letters to countries during the week of July 9. But importantly, no part of that change accounts for an increase in China tariffs. Those are estimated just shy of 50%, a far cry from the 145% once threatened. Meanwhile, there have actually been positive updates in terms of US-China trade. In a blog post late Monday night, Nvidia (NVDA) said it was applying to resume sales of its H20 GPUs in China, reversing a key headwind for the company's AI chip business. Nvidia wrote in the post that the US "assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted." Nvidia's move to once again sell H20 GPUs in China came just days after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump. Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances Fellow chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also said it is planning to resume sales of its AI chips for China that were banned in April, pending approval from the US Commerce Department. AMD shares were up nearly 7% Tuesday while Nvidia stock added over 4% to trade at a record high. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called the Nvidia announcement a "a watershed moment for Nvidia, the AI Revolution thesis, and the overall US tech industry." "Its also a major bullish tailwind for the tech sector as the green light for Nvidia will propel Street estimates to go up meaningfully over the coming years with China back in the fold," Ives said. And given that the tech sector is more than 30% of the S&P 500's market cap, the bullishness in tech is supporting the broader indexes gains. On Tuesday morning, Technology (XLK) was the only sector in the green, rising roughly 1% while the S&P 500 was essentially flat. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Nvidia may resume China sales, but this strategist is hesitant
Nvidia (NVDA) is leading the broader market higher, pushing the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) to fresh record highs, after the chipmaker signaled that it expects the US government to allow it to sell its H20 chip in China, a positive sign of progress in the ongoing trade war. New York Life Investments economist and portfolio strategist Lauren Goodwin joins Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to outline her read of Nvidia's current price action and US trade dynamics. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Opening Bid here. We're also locked in on all things Nvidia office, uh, H200 news. Those chips look like they'll be headed back to China. And I want to call up, uh, the earnings estimates for Nvidia. You can find these on the Yahoo Finance platform, but you can see how they've really fallen down, uh, versus 90 days ago. And large part, large part because of unknown related to the, uh, not only just AI demand going forward, but what will happen with this China business. We now know, Lauren, and it's likely now estimates will have to climb for Nvidia, but do they also have to climb for other companies that play, other tech companies that play in China? And then how are you thinking about the tech trade moving forward? I always hate to answer a question like this as a two-handed economist, but I think that we have to. This foundational layer of artificial intelligence is so important. There's a reason why we've seen these companies be gainers throughout the last couple of years as the AI trade has unfolded. They are so essential to moving this technology and these business processes forward that we're all looking forward to. And the news that we're seeing with respect to China is certainly positive news. Whereas an economist and a market strategist, I have some hesitation is that there's not very much that investors, or even these companies, can do to influence the major geopolitical shifts that we're seeing globally. And when we, when it comes to sales in China, or really US-China competition around this technology supply chain, I anticipate ebbs and flows in that dynamic. And so, as policymakers try to decide, you know, will the US be more open to collaboration with China and Chinese companies on these technology supply chains, or will they not, companies like Nvidia, and like many of the other magnificent seven and technology enablers, are going to be in the middle of that fray. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
