Latest news with #Gardasil
Forbes
5 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Should You Buy MRK Stock At $80?
INDIA - 2025/05/20: In this photo illustration, a MERCK logo is seen displayed on a smartphone and ... More in the background. (Photo Illustration by Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Merck (NYSE:MRK) stock has experienced a significant 22% decline this year, sharply underperforming the broader S&P 500 index, which is down only 1%. This downturn can be attributed to several factors: a lowered guidance for 2025 and growing concerns about the long-term growth prospects of its blockbuster drugs, Keytruda and Gardasil. Specifically, weak sales of Gardasil in China, a critical market for the vaccine, have unsettled investors. Furthermore, Keytruda is nearing the end of its market exclusivity period in 2028, raising questions about future revenue. Despite these near-term concerns, we believe the negatives might already be priced into Merck's stock. While challenges exist, the company's current valuation appears very low. We've reached this conclusion by analyzing Merck's current valuation against its recent operating performance and its historical and current financial health. Our assessment of Merck across key parameters—Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience—indicates that the company possesses strong operating performance and financial condition. However, for investors who seek lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, MRK stock looks cheap compared to the broader market. Merck's Revenues have grown marginally over recent years. Merck's profit margins are much higher than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. Merck's balance sheet looks fine. MRK stock has seen an impact that was slightly better than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on MRK stock? Our dashboard How Low Can Merck Stock Go In A Market Crash? has a detailed analysis of how the stock performed during and after previous market crashes. In summary, Merck's performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows: • Growth: Neutral • Profitability: Very Strong • Financial Stability: Neutral • Downturn Resilience: Strong • Overall: Strong Considering Merck's very low valuation and its strong performance across key financial and operational parameters, we believe MRK stock is an attractive buy. However, it's crucial for investors to acknowledge the inherent risks. As seen during the 2008 financial crisis, MRK stock plummeted over 65% from its peak, demonstrating its susceptibility to significant downturns. Current concerns also include the potential for continued declines in Gardasil sales and a slowdown in Keytruda's sales growth as it approaches patent expiry. Should these scenarios materialize, MRK stock could experience further declines. While we view Merck's current valuation as compelling, investors should thoroughly weigh these risks against the potential upside. While MRK stock looks promising, investing in a single stock can be risky. On the other hand, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
MRK Q1 Earnings Call: Pipeline Expansion, Tariff Pressures, and Portfolio Diversification
Global pharmaceutical company Merck (NYSE:MRK) reported Q1 CY2025 results exceeding the market's revenue expectations , but sales fell by 1.6% year on year to $15.53 billion. The company expects the full year's revenue to be around $64.85 billion, close to analysts' estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.22 per share was 4% above analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy MRK? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $15.53 billion vs analyst estimates of $15.29 billion (1.6% year-on-year decline, 1.6% beat) Adjusted EPS: $2.22 vs analyst estimates of $2.14 (4% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $7.72 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.88 billion (49.7% margin, 12.2% beat) The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $64.85 billion at the midpoint Operating Margin: 37.8%, up from 35.7% in the same quarter last year Free Cash Flow Margin: 7.5%, down from 14.1% in the same quarter last year Constant Currency Revenue rose 1% year on year (12% in the same quarter last year) Market Capitalization: $190.8 billion Merck's first quarter performance was shaped by steady demand in its oncology and animal health businesses and the growing contribution from new product launches such as WinRevair and Cafaxib. Management cited a pronounced decline in Gardasil sales in China, which offset growth in other segments, while ongoing investments in U.S. manufacturing and supply chain flexibility emerged as key themes. CEO Rob Davis highlighted the company's progress on pipeline development and the ability to manage near-term headwinds through inventory planning and manufacturing localization. Looking ahead, Merck's 2025 guidance is anchored by continued momentum in its late-stage portfolio and expectations for improved growth in the second half of the year. Management acknowledged external risks, particularly from evolving U.S. tariff policies, but expressed confidence in the company's strategic positioning. CFO Caroline Litchfield emphasized that operational investments and disciplined cost management will support both innovation and Merck's ability to navigate industry challenges. Merck's leadership focused on the evolving product mix, supply chain strategy, and regulatory developments as primary factors influencing first quarter results. The underlying performance was shaped by new product launches and ongoing demand for established therapies, while selective investments and external pressures played significant roles. New launch momentum: The recent launches of WinRevair for pulmonary arterial hypertension and Cafaxib in pneumococcal vaccines generated meaningful growth, with WinRevair's uptake driven by expanded clinical trial data and increasing patient reach in the U.S. and international markets. Gardasil sales volatility: A sharp decline in Gardasil vaccine sales in China was attributed to elevated inventories and softer demand, partially offset by stable or growing demand in the U.S., Japan, and other international markets. Management expects Japan's catch-up vaccination cohort to taper off, moderating future growth. Oncology expansion: Keytruda and other oncology assets recorded demand growth, particularly in earlier-stage cancers. Management noted new clinical and regulatory milestones, including additional indications and new dosing formulations for Keytruda, as contributors to ongoing portfolio strength. Supply chain adaptation: Merck's ongoing investments in U.S. manufacturing are designed to mitigate tariff exposure and support future launches. The company cited over $12 billion invested since 2018, with plans for more than $9 billion in further projects through 2028, focusing on 'U.S. for U.S.' supply resilience. Pipeline broadening: The late-stage pipeline now includes 20+ programs with significant commercial potential, spanning oncology, cardiometabolic, ophthalmology, and immunology, with management emphasizing the expected introduction of multiple blockbuster candidates over the next several years. Merck's outlook for the coming quarters centers on the continued integration of new products, proactive supply chain management, and ongoing investment in research and development to sustain portfolio diversification. Tariff and policy impacts: Management flagged ongoing and potential new tariffs—especially between the U.S. and China—as a risk to cost structure. The company's focus on U.S.-based manufacturing and inventory management is intended to offset near-term disruptions, but longer-term policy changes remain a source of uncertainty. Gardasil trajectory: Ongoing softness in China and the conclusion of Japan's catch-up vaccination program are expected to weigh on vaccine revenue growth, with management monitoring whether U.S. regulatory recommendations could boost domestic demand. Pipeline execution: Progress toward regulatory milestones and data readouts for late-stage pipeline programs will be critical to offsetting future revenue loss from patent expirations on major products such as Keytruda. Geoff Meacham (Citibank): Asked about Merck's strategies to mitigate new U.S. tariffs, particularly whether supply chain changes or price increases would be used. CEO Rob Davis explained the company's focus on manufacturing localization and inventory planning, stating price increases are not the preferred lever. Tim Anderson (Bank of America): Queried about long-term guidance after Keytruda's patent expiry and the potential for more granular disclosure. Rob Davis reiterated reliance on the pipeline's strength and noted there are no current plans for detailed line-by-line guidance. Luisa Hector (Berenberg): Sought clarity on regulatory developments at the FDA and HHS, especially for vaccine programs. Dr. Dean Li responded that near-term regulatory timelines remain on track despite broader agency personnel changes. Chris Schott (JPMorgan): Questioned the likelihood of Gardasil moving to a single-dose regimen in the U.S. and implications for pricing. Management emphasized the high evidentiary bar set by the FDA and the company's intention to maintain the vaccine's value proposition. Steve Scala (TD Cowen): Asked about the outlook for Gardasil growth after the end of Japan's catch-up program and whether previous long-term targets remain achievable. CFO Caroline Litchfield confirmed that the $11 billion target was withdrawn, citing China headwinds, but still expects strong growth outside China. In the next few quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) clinical trial readouts and regulatory decisions for key pipeline candidates, including new oncology and cardiometabolic therapies, (2) the impact of U.S. tariff policy changes on operating margins and supply chain strategy, and (3) the trajectory of Gardasil sales as Japan's catch-up program phases out and China demand remains uncertain. Execution on pipeline launches and mitigation of external headwinds will remain central to Merck's performance. Merck currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8.4×. At this valuation, is it a buy or sell post earnings? Find out in our free research report. Market indices reached historic highs following Donald Trump's presidential victory in November 2024, but the outlook for 2025 is clouded by new trade policies that could impact business confidence and growth. While this has caused many investors to adopt a "fearful" wait-and-see approach, we're leaning into our best ideas that can grow regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate. Take advantage of Mr. Market by checking out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years. Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
29-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Does Merck Stock Have Room For Growth?
CHONGQING, CHINA - APRIL 20: In this photo illustration, the Merck logo is displayed on a smartphone ... More screen, with the company's green-themed branding visible in the background, on April 20, 2025, in Chongqing, China. (Photo by) Merck (NYSE: MRK) recently announced its first-quarter results, exceeding Wall Street's expectations for both earnings and revenue. The company reported revenues of $15.53 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.22, surpassing consensus predictions of $15.31 billion and $2.14, respectively. This strong performance was fueled by consistent sales growth of Keytruda. However, sales of Gardasil saw a marked decline due to diminished demand in China. Despite the favorable Q1 outcomes, Merck adjusted its forecast for 2025 downwards, citing an estimated $200 million in tariff-related costs. After the earnings announcement on Friday, April 25th, Merck's (MRK) stock price rose by 4%. However, year-to-date, MRK stock has lagged behind the S&P 500 Health Care index, registering a return of -17% compared to the index's 0.2% gain. This underperformance is partly attributable to the issues encountered by its HPV vaccine, Gardasil, in China due to lower demand. If you are looking for upside potential with less volatility than that of individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception. In the first quarter, Merck's revenue of $15.53 billion reflected a 2% decrease compared to the previous year. This downturn occurred despite ongoing growth from Keytruda, which experienced a 4% year-over-year increase in sales, reaching $7.2 billion. Additionally, Merck's newer medications, Winrevair and Capvaxive, are gaining market share. In contrast, Gardasil sales suffered a significant 41% drop year-over-year to $1.3 billion, largely due to sustained weak demand in China. Merck's adjusted gross margin improved by 40 basis points to 78%, thanks to a favorable product mix. The company's adjusted earnings per share reached $2.22. It's important to mention that the first quarter of 2024 included a $0.26 per share charge related to the acquisition of Harpoon Therapeutics, which affects the year-over-year comparison of the bottom line. Looking forward, Merck maintains its revenue guidance for the entire year 2025, anticipating sales between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion. However, the firm has revised its adjusted earnings per share forecast to a range of $8.82 to $8.97, citing an estimated $200 million in incurred tariff costs to date. While Merck's first-quarter results were encouraging, the adjusted outlook indicates a slight decrease in margins and earnings. We estimate Merck's valuation at $109 per share, indicating substantial upside potential of 30% from the current trading price of $83. Currently, MRK stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times its trailing earnings per share of $7.79, which is below the stock's historical average P/E ratio of around 14 times. Taking into account the strong growth trajectory of Keytruda and the increasing momentum of Merck's new drug launches, we believe the current lower valuation multiple represents an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors. In addition, the company's recent strategic acquisitions, including Prometheus Biosciences, Acceleron Pharma, Imago BioSciences, Harpoon Therapeutics, and EyeBio, are expected to drive both revenue and earnings growth in the upcoming years. Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), generating strong returns for investors. Separately, if you seek upside with a more stable experience than an individual stock like Merck, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Yahoo
26-04-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
17 Brutally Honest Confessions From A Woman Who Got All Her Vaccinations At 18 After Being Raised By Anti-Vax Parents
Currently, the CDC recommends that children be vaccinated against potentially harmful diseases ranging from measles and tetanus to hepatitis and polio. However, vaccine hesitancy has been on the rise since COVID, and once fringe beliefs, like thinking vaccines cause autism (they don't), are becoming more mainstream. Recently, on Reddit, a woman who grew up in an anti-vax family posted an AMA, inviting users to ask her anything about her experience, and it was a really fascinating conversation. She started the thread by writing, "I was raised by hippie-dippy parents in Oregon. No vaccines, was born at home, homeschooled for 16 years, etc. I have since received all of my vaccinations." Here are some of the most interesting questions and answers: 1.Q: When did your beliefs start to differ from your parents and why? How did they react? A: I wanted to be vaccinated once I learned about my parents' decision. My parents were not happy but respected my decision because I was 18. 2.Q: So you learned you were unvaccinated at 18? A: I started to grasp the concept when I was around 14, when we went to a new pediatrician, and the doctor asked for Gardasil. My mom mentioned that I had not been vaccinated at all. 3.Q: So at what point between 14 and 18 did you start to disagree with your parents' views? What led to you thinking differently? A: I didn't really have an opinion until I started getting registered at my college, and I had to do all these crazy forms for vaccine exemptions. I took a biology course during my first semester of freshman year, and that motivated me to seek out vaccinations in addition to just being lazy and annoyed. 4.Q: Seems like the biggest annoyance to you of not being vaccinated is filling out paperwork. I understand that vaccination exemptions are inconvenient, but if it weren't for that, does it actually bother you? A: Yes, it does. After working in a nursing home where I have had residents deal with polio paralysis and cephalopathy from measles and sepsis from a shingles infection. I can certainly say that it does bother me that my parents made that decision. 5.Q: Did you get all your vaccines at once, or did you space them out? How did you feel physically after getting the polio vaccine? A: They were all spaced out. I don't remember how I felt after a certain vaccine because I got them done during a time when I was heavily using cannabis. It definitely altered my memory, but I don't ever remember having a bad reaction to any of them. 6.Q: Was it expensive to get the vaccines or covered by insurance or public health? A: It was very inexpensive for me. I actually had a professor help me pay for the more expensive ones. 7.Q: After your biology class, whats your opinion on the preservatives, stabilizers, and other ingredients used in vaccines? A: There are preservatives in literally every product we use on the market, like citric acid in food and phenoxyethanol in beauty products. Vaccines are such a small exposure, I'm not afraid of them. 8.Q: Do you wish you were vaccinated when you were younger, or are you okay with the choice your parents made? A: I wish I was because then I wouldn't have wasted so much time, like hours, filling out exemption forms for my college. I also don't appreciate the fact that I was in pain and remembered the pain from getting vaccinations. I still am icked out by needles even though I'm a nurse. 9.Q: Do you feel your parents endangered your life at all? A: Yes, in a way. I remember when we were younger we traveled to a country in the Caribbean and I don't know if it was my parents being racist or being scared, but they didn't let us play with the children in the village that we were visiting because they were paranoid that we would get whatever disease the children had. 10.Q: How do you view their choice to not vaccinate you? Has it altered your perception of them in any way? A: It was a bad decision. I definitely think they are selfish, for sure. 11.Q: What's your relationship with your parents like now, and how do they feel about the way public health is going at present? A: We still talk. We are not very close. They are both socialist hippies. I don't really talk to them about politics or public health because they are not informed, and it's not my place to educate them. 12.Q: So did you catch a lot of diseases as a child? Or something you should have been vaccinated against? A: The only disease I remember catching is Chickenpox, which was so scary. My parents took me to a pox party. It was hell. I also got the flu a few times. 13.Q: I also wasn't vaccinated until I was 18. Have your parents changed their views at all over time? My mom recently apologized to me in light of the current measles outbreak. Dad is still extremely anti-vax. I work in public health now, so that makes Thanksgiving fun, lol. A: My parents have not changed their views. I know the feeling. It can be tough to be polite, to be honest. 14.Q: When you've tried to talk to them about it, what happens? A: The conversations about vaccines rarely come up. I have tried to talk to them about it once in regard to my younger siblings. However, they are pretty resistant. When the COVID-19 vaccine was rolling out, I tried to have a serious conversation with them about it, but it ended up in a big fight, which is not worth it to me. I think it's important to meet people where they're at and support them on their journey without being forceful because that can lead to more resistance. 15.Q: How well were you homeschooled? I have a friend who homeschools their children, but I presume doesn't actually do any kind of schooling. A: We honestly were schooled okay. My mom was a teacher before she became a SAHM. I decided to go to a public high school when I entered my junior year. Both of my parents have Master's degrees, so it was always expected of us to go to college. 16.Q: Did your family's social circle also consist of anti-vaxxers? If so, have their adult children made similar decisions to proceed with getting vaccinated, or have most stayed unvaccinated? A: Absolutely. We did a homeschooling co op. I don't really speak on that level with those people, so I genuinely don't know. 17.Q: Do you think there are effective ways to try to persuade parents who are worried about the effects of vaccines, or do they have to change their own minds? A: I strongly believe in meeting people where they are at instead of harassing them about dumb decisions. All you can do is provide them with facts and let them come to their own conclusions. Can you relate to her story? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Yahoo
26-04-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
17 Brutally Honest Confessions From A Woman Who Got All Her Vaccinations At 18 After Being Raised By Anti-Vax Parents
Currently, the CDC recommends that children be vaccinated against potentially harmful diseases ranging from measles and tetanus to hepatitis and polio. However, vaccine hesitancy has been on the rise since COVID, and once fringe beliefs, like thinking vaccines cause autism (they don't), are becoming more mainstream. Recently, on Reddit, a woman who grew up in an anti-vax family posted an AMA, inviting users to ask her anything about her experience, and it was a really fascinating conversation. She started the thread by writing, "I was raised by hippie-dippy parents in Oregon. No vaccines, was born at home, homeschooled for 16 years, etc. I have since received all of my vaccinations." Here are some of the most interesting questions and answers: 1.Q: When did your beliefs start to differ from your parents and why? How did they react? A: I wanted to be vaccinated once I learned about my parents' decision. My parents were not happy but respected my decision because I was 18. 2.Q: So you learned you were unvaccinated at 18? A: I started to grasp the concept when I was around 14, when we went to a new pediatrician, and the doctor asked for Gardasil. My mom mentioned that I had not been vaccinated at all. 3.Q: So at what point between 14 and 18 did you start to disagree with your parents' views? What led to you thinking differently? A: I didn't really have an opinion until I started getting registered at my college, and I had to do all these crazy forms for vaccine exemptions. I took a biology course during my first semester of freshman year, and that motivated me to seek out vaccinations in addition to just being lazy and annoyed. 4.Q: Seems like the biggest annoyance to you of not being vaccinated is filling out paperwork. I understand that vaccination exemptions are inconvenient, but if it weren't for that, does it actually bother you? A: Yes, it does. After working in a nursing home where I have had residents deal with polio paralysis and cephalopathy from measles and sepsis from a shingles infection. I can certainly say that it does bother me that my parents made that decision. 5.Q: Did you get all your vaccines at once, or did you space them out? How did you feel physically after getting the polio vaccine? A: They were all spaced out. I don't remember how I felt after a certain vaccine because I got them done during a time when I was heavily using cannabis. It definitely altered my memory, but I don't ever remember having a bad reaction to any of them. 6.Q: Was it expensive to get the vaccines or covered by insurance or public health? A: It was very inexpensive for me. I actually had a professor help me pay for the more expensive ones. 7.Q: After your biology class, whats your opinion on the preservatives, stabilizers, and other ingredients used in vaccines? A: There are preservatives in literally every product we use on the market, like citric acid in food and phenoxyethanol in beauty products. Vaccines are such a small exposure, I'm not afraid of them. 8.Q: Do you wish you were vaccinated when you were younger, or are you okay with the choice your parents made? A: I wish I was because then I wouldn't have wasted so much time, like hours, filling out exemption forms for my college. I also don't appreciate the fact that I was in pain and remembered the pain from getting vaccinations. I still am icked out by needles even though I'm a nurse. 9.Q: Do you feel your parents endangered your life at all? A: Yes, in a way. I remember when we were younger we traveled to a country in the Caribbean and I don't know if it was my parents being racist or being scared, but they didn't let us play with the children in the village that we were visiting because they were paranoid that we would get whatever disease the children had. 10.Q: How do you view their choice to not vaccinate you? Has it altered your perception of them in any way? A: It was a bad decision. I definitely think they are selfish, for sure. 11.Q: What's your relationship with your parents like now, and how do they feel about the way public health is going at present? A: We still talk. We are not very close. They are both socialist hippies. I don't really talk to them about politics or public health because they are not informed, and it's not my place to educate them. 12.Q: So did you catch a lot of diseases as a child? Or something you should have been vaccinated against? A: The only disease I remember catching is Chickenpox, which was so scary. My parents took me to a pox party. It was hell. I also got the flu a few times. 13.Q: I also wasn't vaccinated until I was 18. Have your parents changed their views at all over time? My mom recently apologized to me in light of the current measles outbreak. Dad is still extremely anti-vax. I work in public health now, so that makes Thanksgiving fun, lol. A: My parents have not changed their views. I know the feeling. It can be tough to be polite, to be honest. 14.Q: When you've tried to talk to them about it, what happens? A: The conversations about vaccines rarely come up. I have tried to talk to them about it once in regard to my younger siblings. However, they are pretty resistant. When the COVID-19 vaccine was rolling out, I tried to have a serious conversation with them about it, but it ended up in a big fight, which is not worth it to me. I think it's important to meet people where they're at and support them on their journey without being forceful because that can lead to more resistance. 15.Q: How well were you homeschooled? I have a friend who homeschools their children, but I presume doesn't actually do any kind of schooling. A: We honestly were schooled okay. My mom was a teacher before she became a SAHM. I decided to go to a public high school when I entered my junior year. Both of my parents have Master's degrees, so it was always expected of us to go to college. 16.Q: Did your family's social circle also consist of anti-vaxxers? If so, have their adult children made similar decisions to proceed with getting vaccinated, or have most stayed unvaccinated? A: Absolutely. We did a homeschooling co op. I don't really speak on that level with those people, so I genuinely don't know. 17.Q: Do you think there are effective ways to try to persuade parents who are worried about the effects of vaccines, or do they have to change their own minds? A: I strongly believe in meeting people where they are at instead of harassing them about dumb decisions. All you can do is provide them with facts and let them come to their own conclusions. Can you relate to her story? Share your thoughts in the comments!
