05-07-2025
Greenhouse gas surge tied to deadly floods and fires, says expert in George
Greenhouse gases pouring into the atmosphere have all the instruments scientists use to monitor climate change flashing red.
George Herald reports that the impact will be felt on various levels, including human health, species loss, extreme weather events (such as the recent Eastern Cape floods that killed over 100 people) and catastrophic fires, such as the 2017 Knysna conflagration.
This is according to Future Climate IQ's founder Peter du Toit, who delivered a sobering presentation on the state of the climate at the Garden Route Environmental Forum Climate Change and Environmental Management Indaba at the Nelson Mandela University's George Campus on Friday, June 27.
He said the accumulation of excessive amounts of methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride in the atmosphere was primarily a result of the way we produce electricity (by burning fossils) and move around in our cars.
Looking at rising ocean temperatures, Du Toit said the oceans have 'started to boil' since the 1990s. 'That's the phrase I'll use when I talk about the oceans. The enormous amount of energy that is going into the ocean is just absolutely mind-boggling. This is a very serious situation, as the oceans have a dramatic impact on the global climate,' he said.
Du Toit explained how the rising amounts of greenhouse gases are preventing heat radiated from the Earth's surface from escaping into space as freely as it used to. Consequently, most of the excess heat is then passed back to the ocean. This, he said, has led to a significant increase in upper ocean heat content over the past few decades.
'Heat absorbed by the ocean is moved from one place to another, but it doesn't disappear.
'The heat energy eventually re-enters the rest of the Earth system by melting ice shelves, evaporating water, or directly reheating the atmosphere. Thus, heat energy in the ocean can warm the planet for decades after it was absorbed,' Du Toit explained.
He said the ocean is even heating up at depths of 2 000ft.
Rising sea levels, threat to coastal property
Water expands when it heats up. Accordingly, the warming of ocean water is also raising the global sea level. Combined with water from melting glaciers all over the planet, it poses a threat to natural ecosystems and human settlements along the coast.
While a centimetre rise in sea level might sound negligible, Du Toit explained it equates to a metre of coastal retreat. A 10cm rise in sea level, he said, would triple the frequency of flooding along the coast.
In addition, Du Toit said the loss of sea ice also sets in motion a vicious cycle of warming. 'Let's just look at what's happening about 3 000km south of us, where we're losing the ice we need as a mirror. The ice is like a mirror that reflects incoming radiation. If there's no mirror, the ocean just gets hotter and we lose more sea ice, setting in motion a vicious circle,' he said.
The Paris Agreement, signed in December 2015 during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), aims to limit the increase in the global average temperature to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Recognising the significant extent to which this would reduce the risks and impacts of climate change, the Paris Agreement put in place measures to limit the temperature increase to only 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Unfortunately, said Du Toit, we have catastrophically failed at keeping temperatures below that. Last year was the warmest year on record since 1850, with global surface temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.55 °C. He referenced the Swiss village of Blatten that was partially destroyed five weeks ago after a huge chunk of a melting glacier broke off and pummelled into the valley.
While crossing the threshold once does not mean we are there permanently, Du Toit cautioned we are dangerously close to it. He said that at the current trajectory, we will permanently cross the 1.5°C mark next year and the 2°C mark in just 12 years' time.
'There is no turning this off. This is where we're going,' he warned.
He then went on to compliment the Garden Route District Municipality's Climate Change Adaptation Response Implementation Plan as something that should be read by everyone.
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