Latest news with #GaryWinslett
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘A big missing part of the story' — Rust Belt vs. Sun Belt in the battle for U.S. manufacturing jobs
Foreign competition's role in the loss of Rust Belt jobs has been overstated in the political debate over U.S. manufacturing, according to Middlebury College professor Gary Winslett, who instead pointed to interstate competition, namely the rise of Southern states as favorable places for companies to put factories. Politicians from both sides of the aisle have ignored some "uncomfortable truths" as the Rust Belt has hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs over the years, according to Middlebury College professor Gary Winslett. In particular, he highlighted the narrative that China, Mexico and other countries grew their manufacturing employment via trade deals at the expense of the U.S. "It's a politically convenient tale for courting voters in key swing states, pining for the way things once were," Winslett wrote in a Washington Post op-ed on Wednesday. "The problem is that it's not true — and it is leading to some terrible policy decisions." To be sure, overall U.S. manufacturing employment has been in decline for decades. After peaking at nearly 20 million in 1979, it was at 12.8 million last month, according to Labor Department data compiled by the St. Louis Fed. And as a share of total nonfarm employment, manufacturing jobs have been in decline since 1953 as the economy has evolved to more service-oriented growth. Meanwhile, separate research from the Economic Policy Institute has shown that the U.S. lost more than 5 million manufacturing jobs from 1998 to 2021 as the trade deficit in manufactured goods with China, Japan, Mexico, the European Union, and other countries grew deeper. But Winslett see factors closer to home. "A big missing part of the story: Interstate competition," he wrote. "The Rust Belt's manufacturing decline isn't primarily about jobs going to Mexico. It's about jobs going to Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee." Citing data from the World Trade Organization, he said the Rust Belt accounted for nearly half of all U.S. manufacturing exports in 1970 vs. less than a quarter for the South. Today, those regions have switched places. In fact, Alabama, which produces more than 1 million vehicles a year, is the No. 1 auto-exporting state, after not having a single auto plant as recently as 1992, he said. Winslett attributed the role reversal to conditions in Southern states that are more business friendly, including right-to-work laws, cheaper electricity, more housing construction, lower taxes and easier permitting. Immigration has also helped the South, which now has more immigrants than any other part of the country while the Midwest has the fewest, he added. In addition, automation has contributed to the decline of manufacturing employment as well, Winslett pointed out, meaning that reshoring factories today wouldn't produce a big surge in jobs. "But even accounting for this technological shift, it is the ongoing competition between states, far more than globalization, that has reshaped American manufacturing, creating uncomfortable truths that neither party wants to acknowledge," he explained. For example, Republicans like President Donald Trump have pitched tariffs as the key to restoring Rust Belt factory jobs, without acknowledging the jobs that went to the South. On the other side, Democrats prefer to blame globalization than interstate competition and won't acknowledge deregulation, right-to-work laws, and lower energy costs, Winslett said. "Both parties prefer simple villains, whether it's China or greedy corporations," he concluded. "But what's needed isn't more warm fuzzies about the way things used to be or globalization scapegoating. It is a clear-eyed approach that understands why companies choose Alabama over Ohio and that embraces the choices made by Southern states." This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The South Stole Your Job
What if the whole Rust Belt decline narrative is wrong? "There's a popular story that politicians in both parties like to tell us: The Rust Belt was a thriving region until China, Mexico and their American business allies tore their manufacturing jobs away with lopsided trade deals," writes Gary Winslett, Middlebury College professor, in The Washington Post. But what if the whole narrative is wrong? "The Rust Belt's manufacturing decline isn't primarily about jobs going to Mexico. It's about jobs going to Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee. To put it in college football terms, the traditional Big Ten has been losing out to the Southeastern Conference." "In 1970, the Rust Belt was responsible for nearly half of all manufacturing exports while the South produced less than a quarter," continues Winslett. "Today, the roles are reversed, it is the Rust Belt that hosts less than one-fourth of all manufactured exports and the South that exports twice what the Rust Belt does." The reasons why? It's a classic tale of interstate competition, in which the South lured jobs away from the Rust Belt by simply having more pro-business laws and conditions. Right-to-work laws in southern states "created more operational flexibility and attracted capital." The Rust Belt is heavily unionized; the South isn't. The South has cheap electricity and housing, lower tax burdens, more immigrants flocking in to provide cheap labor, and easier and faster permitting processes, argues Winslett. In one sense, if more people believed this story about manufacturing decline, our political dysfunction might get even worse: Don't look at the Chinese as the ones who took your jobs…look to your own neighbors. But it is important to correctly identify why an entire region has seen such a decline, and maybe constituents should demand that their legislators create more favorable conditions for businesses to thrive if they want to work at those types of businesses. There is a relationship between the types of laws passed and the industries that thrive, and policymakers should be expected to understand the consequences of their actions. But there's another important point raised by Winslett: Using tariffs to try to force the reshoring of manufacturing businesses doesn't necessarily mean the Rust Belt will be reinvigorated; it's very possible business owners will choose to set up shop in the South or Sun Belt instead, citing the advantages noted above. "That hyper-automated Black & Decker factory went to North Carolina, not Pennsylvania," argues Winslett. "Manufacturing doesn't chase nostalgia; it follows the bottom line." Dissent will be squashed: "Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has fired the top two officials at the National Intelligence Council, weeks after the council wrote an assessment that contradicted President Donald Trump's rationale for invoking the Alien Enemies Act and deporting alleged Venezuelan gang members without due process," reports The Washington Post. Both Michael Collins, acting chair of the National Intelligence Council, and Maria Langan-Riekhof, his deputy, were axed by Gabbard. Since the start of his second term, President Donald Trump has been using the 1798 Alien Enemies Act (AEA) to deport Venezuelans he claims are associated with Tren de Aragua, a designated foreign terrorist organization. Trump believes the AEA allows him to deny court hearings to certain immigrants during times of "declared war" or when a foreign government has taken part in an "invasion" or "predatory incursion" and that the Venezuelan government, by directing the activities of Tren de Aragua, is threatening U.S. national security and has sent enough people here to constitute an invasion. But a memo made public last month undermined Trump's claim, as it appears intelligence agencies within the administration do not believe that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro actually directs the activities of Tren de Aragua, therefore making it hard for the AEA criteria to be met. (You may recall that I reported this in Reason Roundup at the time.) "The NIC is the top U.S. intelligence community body for analyzing classified intelligence and providing secret assessments to the president and other top policymakers," adds the Post. But how dare you disagree with, or complicate the novel legal approach of, the administration in charge. It seems like maintaining some degree of independence within the NIC, versus populating it entirely with sycophants, would be helpful. But maybe not. (Also wild that Gabbard—long an independent voice—is now so inclined to do Trump's dirty work.) After a bill that legalized marijuana was signed into law in 2021, tons of unlicensed dispensaries sprung up. For a few years, authorities sort of looked the other way (and consumers got the product they wanted). But in May of last year, New York City got serious about its enforcement efforts, shutting down 1,400 pot shops from then until now. Over the same period, the weed bureaucrats have allowed 160 licensed dispensaries to open. Now, interestingly, "the court orders that allowed the city sheriff to seal the illegal businesses with padlocks for one year have begun to expire, requiring the city to remove the locks," reports The New York Times. "The expiring sealing orders have raised the possibility that a wave of illegal stores could reopen and once again overwhelm legal operators." Excellent. It is competition that should never have been shut down by the government! For more on New York's weird war on weed, check out this documentary I produced: How the recent conclave resulted in the first American pope: "In a budget presentation on Wednesday, [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom proposed freezing the enrollment of undocumented adults in the state's version of Medicaid, known as Medi-Cal, as soon as January," reports The New York Times. "He is also seeking to charge people who remain in the program $100 a month, beginning in 2027, and eliminate long-term care and dental benefits for undocumented adults and other noncitizens. The governor estimates that those changes combined would save the state $6.5 billion by the 2028-29 fiscal year." This strikes me as extremely reasonable, and probably something that should've been pursued long ago. "Of the many things the Trump administration has done in the last 100-and-change days that have impacted free speech, the threats to law firms might be the most troubling," write Greg Lukianoff and Adam Goldstein. "Seven firms involved in cases that the Trump administration didn't like were targeted by orders and memoranda from President Trump himself in what appears to be retaliation for their involvement in those cases. Those firms face (or faced) having their government contracts reviewed, the actual or potential revocation of security clearances from their attorneys, and their attorneys' access to federal buildings limited.…The firms targeted by executive orders and memoranda seem to stand accused of…being lawyers." "Mexico's security chief confirmed Tuesday that 17 family members of cartel leaders crossed into the U.S. last week as part of a deal between a son of the former head of the Sinaloa Cartel and the Trump administration," reports the Associated Press. The gender-swapping movie executives are coming for James Bond now (but Ben Dreyfuss is here to defend his honor): The post The South Stole Your Job appeared first on
