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National Observer
20 hours ago
- Business
- National Observer
Is Canada betting big on LNG at just the wrong time?
As the tanker GasLog Glasgow sailed out of Canada's new liquefied natural gas export terminal in Kitimat, BC in late June bound for Asia with the first cargo produced by the $40 billion project, Premier David Eby cheered the benefits it would bring to his province. 'Billions of dollars in economic growth and hundreds of jobs' would be created, he said, as operations geared up at LNG Canada's processing facility, built at a site 640 kilometres north of Vancouver by a group of petro-giants led by Shell Canada. However, the project — Canada's first major LNG plant and the largest single private sector investment in the country's history — he said would also be a pioneering industrial model for developing resources and diversifying exports in the face of US tariff and annexation threats. 'First shipments of made-in-BC energy across the Pacific come at a pivotal time for our province and the country,' Eby said, with projects like Kitimat holding the potential to be the 'economic engine of a more independent Canada' as the country moves through its energy transition. But Canada's first foray into the global LNG market 15 years after Ottawa issued lead-off export licences, along with plans for a further six projects, comes as the global industry enters a period of oversupply expected to put heavy downward pressure on prices. Asia's shifting energy priorities are another factor weighing on the business case for investing billions of dollars in Canadian LNG facilities. China, the world's largest LNG buyer, is ramping up renewables and relying on domestic coal to reduce its reliance on foreign sources of fossil fuels. Other countries balk at building expensive LNG facilities and worry about trade and supply chain disruptions, and more importantly, the price. "Whether Canada will be able to capitalize on the promise of LNG is the question of the hour,' Clark Williams-Derry, an analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a US-based think tank, told Canada's National Observer. After a 'lean period' of new supply from 2021 through 2024, the trajectory for the next five years 'looks like being on track for massive oversupply,' he said. The US is expected to add 97 million tonnes a year of new capacity, followed by Qatar with another 56 million tonnes. Some LNG supply forecasts do not include dozens of LNG projects worldwide that have not yet received a final investment decision — the formal 'green light' for a project to begin construction, he said. But if approved, these projects will also compete with Canadian suppliers for market sales in the early-2030s. 'This is what Canada — which is only now coming to market with LNG Canada — is going to have to navigate: the biggest market upheaval we have ever seen,' Williams-Derry said. 'Demand for the taking' François Poirier, CEO of oil and gas infrastructure giant TC Energy, summed up the gas industry's ambitions to take Canada from minnow to major status in Asia's 270-million-tonne LNG market. Speaking to business leaders in April, he said that if the country has the political will, it could become 'the number one exporter of LNG to Asia' and help that region shed its reliance on coal-fired electricity generation. Mega-project malaise — and milestones 'We have the supply, we have a transportation cost advantage and the demand is there for the taking,' Poirier said, noting that Canada's Pacific coast LNG is closer to Asian markets than US gas shipped from ports on the Gulf of Mexico. Canada's Energy and Natural Resources Minister, Tim Hodgson, insisted last week that Canadian LNG could wrest market share away from the US, the world's top LNG producer, which itself is adding new capacity. ' I know there are buyers,' he told CTV News, without naming countries. Caroline Brouillette, executive Director of Climate Action Network Canada, rejected Hodgson's view that there is international appetite for LNG, despite the three major terminals soon to all be exporting out of BC (see panel below). 'With a global gas glut looming, this could not be further from the truth,' she said in a statement. Ottawa should shun fossil fuels and 'focus exclusively' on renewable energy, energy storage and electricity transmission projects 'based on inexpensive technologies that will make our country resilient in the long run.' Nonetheless, some analysts are predicting a surge in Asian LNG demand by 2050. Wood Mackenzie, an energy intelligence group, for one, forecasts a near doubling in demand to 510 million tonnes a year by 2050, as Asia's developing economies shift to cleaner alternatives to coal. And Mathieu Utting, an analyst with Rystad Energy, another market research house, said Canada may be 'behind the curve in the near-term' in building LNG capacity — particularly as the US forges ahead with new export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico — but expects much of that American gas to be shipped to European markets. 'The most significant growth in global LNG demand to mid-century will come from Asia and in our view, this bodes very well for Canada,' he added. Other analysts are much more pessimistic, seeing earlier hopes of an LNG bonanza for Canadian exports falling flat as a major gas glut looms on the horizon. Fauziah Marzuki, global head of gas at BNEF, an energy market research firm, said LNG oversupply could hit the global market by the early-2030s as new large projects pegged to lofty pre-pandemic gas price forecasts start to come online. 'A lot of LNG projects got delayed by the 'pause' on export approvals in 2024 by the Biden administration,' she told Canada's National Observer. 'Some were delayed because big projects can get delayed, but either way it means there is a lot of LNG on the horizon that will soon be coming into production.' LNG production 'tidal wave' The 'flood' of LNG from new projects could collide later this decade with lower-than-expected demand from key buyers in Europe and Japan, Marzuki said. The received market wisdom that suggested voracious LNG buyers China and India would 'step in to absorb surplus output' is unlikely to happen, she said, because gas prices are generally higher than for Asian coal — while renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are getting precipitously cheaper. In China, energy security concerns are also weighing on the world's biggest LNG buyer. Beijing is ramping up renewable energy capacity and relying on domestic coal supplies to wean itself off foreign fossil fuels as it responds to a trade war with the US — undermining arguments here that Canadian gas can displace coal as Asian economies electrify. The 'tidal wave' of global LNG production coming online through to the end of the decade could see current capacity expand 40 per cent by 2029, said Williams-Derry. He points to a raft of LNG projects under construction in North America, Australia, Russia, Oman, UAE, Nigeria, Gabon, Malaysia, Indonesia, Republic of Congo and Argentina. Together they would add 175 million tonnes a year of capacity as projects become operational sometime in this decade. The US will be home to nearly half of new LNG capacity by 2030, with another 25 per cent from Qatar. 'This raises key questions: who is going to absorb this flood of new supply coming to market?' he asked. 'What will happen to LNG prices? What might this mean for the finances of the sector – not least in Canada?' What happens in Japan is important. The island nation almost single-handedly created Asia's LNG market with a surge in demand to generate electricity and offset the closure of nuclear power plants after the 2011 Fukushima earthquake. Japan's LNG imports fell after 2014 as idled nuclear power plants restarted, and the country generated more power from renewable energy sources. The declining trend in Japan, and other countries such as South Korea, will continue, Williams-Derry said. 'Our expectation is that the demand from these countries will flatline or decline over the coming years.' The softening of the Asian LNG market goes deeper than a downshift in demand from mature economies such as Japan and South Korea, Marzuki said. The level of uncertainty over LNG deliveries to China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia — all have existing gas infrastructure but dwindling domestic supplies — is high because their energy policy strategies are 'highly price sensitive,' she said. China, the world's number one LNG importer, could be counted on for steady year-on-year growth of around 7-12 million tonnes from 2015 to 2022, Williams-Derry said, but no longer. Energy transition 'bridge' to nowhere? LNG worse for climate than coal, experts say 'Most in the industry thought that China's insatiable appetite for LNG would continue,' he said, but demand has dropped 22 per cent in the last year. 'Beijing prioritized domestic gas production, pipeline imports and, of course, a lot of wind and solar as LNG has become the most expensive form of gas in China's energy mix,' Williams-Derry said. In India, the demand for LNG-fuelled power generation that propped up bullish Asian LNG market forecasts 'does not appear to be happening,' he said, putting existing Indian plants at risk of becoming stranded assets. However Asian LNG demand plays out, Marzuki said, the harsh reality is that governments could balk at buying Canadian LNG in favour of cheaper deliveries from other suppliers — or rely on low-cost domestic coal to generate electricity. 'The US, Qatar, Australia, other countries, will all be competing with Canada for these markets,' she said. 'This is where the big growth was supposed to come from.' 'Timing for Canada is a problem' The price competition will be cut-throat for Canadian LNG producers, analysts said. Emerging and developing economies that import gas would need prices at $3-5 per million British thermal units (BTU), the standard unit for measuring the heating content of fuels, to make LNG 'attractive as a large-scale alternative to renewables and coal,' the International Energy Agency said. The IEA noted export projects currently in the global pipeline need around twice that price. LNG coming out of Canada currently breaks even at $7.20-$8.70 per million BTUs, the Canadian Energy Centre, an Alberta-based pro-fossil fuel think tank, said in a recent report. But others, including Williams-Derry, see these price predictions as overly optimistic, given that the global power sector 'will always be on the look-out for other, cheaper sources of fuel than LNG.' Canadian LNG leaving from Pacific ports takes around 10 days to reach Asia — a clear advantage over US exports from the Gulf of Mexico that must travel via the Panama Canal or around the southern tip of South America, a journey that can be twice as long. But Canada's window of opportunity to grab a major slice of Asia's LNG market with this 'quick delivery' time is closing fast, if not already shuttered, Marzuki said. 'Timing is a problem for Canada,' she said, noting the LNG Canada project at Kitimat took years to reach the market after getting the green light in 2012. 'Even if you take the decision to build more LNG terminals today in BC, you still need supply to those terminals, as well as at least five years to construct them,' she said.
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada can become an LNG powerhouse, but it will take innovation and determination
By Chris Cooper On a blustery afternoon last week, on the eve of Canada Day, I stood with colleagues and friends at the LNG Canada marine terminal in Kitimat, in the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation, and watched with pride as the ocean carrier GasLog Glasgow departed with the first load of liquefied natural gas produced at our brand new, state-of-the art facility. This first cargo, destined for markets overseas, was a momentous occasion for our company and our five joint venture participants, local communities and First Nations. And indeed, for British Columbia and Canada. It represented the launch of a new industry in Canada, one that has already provided tens of thousands of jobs for individuals from coast to coast to coast, myriad training and employment opportunities for young workers, economic and social benefits for people and new revenues for governments. In my current and previous roles at LNG Canada, I've been fortunate to see first-hand our project's positive impacts on local businesses, public infrastructure, hospitals, schools, non-profit organizations. As someone whose career began with an apprenticeship at the age of 16, I'm especially pleased that our direct contributions to date include more than $10 million to workforce development initiatives, and another $13 million to community investments. Meanwhile, the cumulative value of LNG Canada's contracts and subcontracts to local, Indigenous and other businesses in B.C. is already approaching $6 billion. We're honoured to be at the forefront of this new industry in Canada. Of course, it hasn't always been easy. As many observers have noted, Canada's LNG opportunity might have come sooner. As an emerging industry, we've encountered numerous challenges, including periods of regulatory uncertainty. Other factors, including our country's vast geography and rugged terrain, have been met with innovation, grit and determination. The Coastal GasLink pipeline that delivers Canadian natural gas to our facility, for example, is 670 kilometres long, and was built across two mountain ranges, across difficult river crossings, over impossibly steep slopes and through avalanche territory. A showcase in collaboration, Coastal GasLink will also transport gas to our neighbours at Cedar LNG, a Haisla-led and majority-owned LNG project now under development just down the road from us. Standing on the jetty last week, watching the first cargo leave, I was reminded that LNG Canada was barely a year into construction when suddenly faced with an unprecedented global pandemic that stretched supply chains, impacted workers and tested capacities. LNG Canada and its valued contractors persevered as a team, and got the job done as a team, safely. Let's be clear: Whatever challenges we have faced or may face in the future, we should not forget the natural advantages we enjoy here in Canada. Designed to produce 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in its initial phase, LNG Canada benefits greatly from our access to abundant, low-cost natural gas from British Columbia's vast resources; a cool northern climate that optimizes production; a deep water harbour that is ice-free all year; and a shipping distance to markets in Asia that is 50 per cent shorter than from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and avoids the Panama Canal. Add to this a highly skilled and growing workforce, and an innovative plant design that incorporates aero-derivative gas turbines and receives auxiliary electric power from BC Hydro, and we have a recipe for success. Our day has arrived, and in many respects, the timing could not be better. The world is hungry for reliable supplies of high quality, responsibly-produced lower carbon energy. Countries around the world want to decarbonize their economies, and they are looking to LNG to help them in their transition. Canada is a respected and stable exporting nation, a good trading partner and a strong alternative to countries with less predictable leadership. From a Canadian perspective, our nascent LNG industry adds much needed diversity to our export markets. We are also demonstrating — again at a time when it's really needed — that British Columbians and Canadians are capable of building big things. And we're capable of doing even more, with more LNG projects in B.C. on the way, and with LNG Canada's Phase 2 expansion that's now under consideration. We see an opportunity to build on our early Phase 1 successes and the benefits it's already providing First Nations, communities, British Columbians and Canadians. Phase 2 would potentially double our production capacity to 28 mtpa, making LNG Canada one of the world's largest LNG export facilities by volume. A final investment decision will take into account factors such as overall competitiveness, affordability, pace, future greenhouse gas emissions and stakeholder needs. Our goal is to continue to design, build and operate a world-class facility at scale. With this trajectory and in continued collaboration with industry colleagues, governments, Canadian crafts and trades, local communities and First Nations, Canada has an exceptionally strong opportunity to become a top-five LNG exporting country. And that would go a long way to help Canada achieve an even more ambitious but attainable goal: to become a world energy superpower. Chris Cooper is chief executive of is LNG Canada Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Canada Standard
03-07-2025
- Health
- Canada Standard
Canada's LNG Touted-And Doubted-as 'Transition' Fuel as Doctors Sound the Alarm
Doctors and health professionals are flagging significant health risks in British Columbia and around the world as Canada's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes make their way toward Asian shores. Some analysts, meanwhile, are touting the industry milestone-and more credible voices are doubting it-as a boon for global efforts to curb the greenhouse gas emissions driving the climate emergency. LNG Canada said Monday that the vessel GasLog Glasgow has departed the northern port of Kitimat, British Columbia, full of ultra-chilled natural gas, The Canadian Press reports. LNG Canada hasn't confirmed the overall price tag for the project. But the federal government has billed it as the biggest private sector investment in Canadian history-$40 billion between the Kitimat operation, the northeast B.C. gas fields supplying it, and the pipeline in between. Shell and four Asian companies are partners in LNG Canada, the first facility to export Canadian gas across the Pacific in the ultra-chilled state using specialized tankers. A handful of other projects are either under construction or in development on the B.C. coast. "Cleaner energy around the world is what I think about when I think about LNG," Shell Canada country chair Stastia West said in an onstage interview at the Global Energy Show in Calgary in June. But "clean" was not quite the adjective the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment attached to LNG in an early July release. "The departure of this first LNG tanker marks a troubling new chapter in British Columbia's health story," family physician and CAPE President Dr. Melissa Lem said in a release. "While industry celebrates, health care professionals are bracing for the consequences of expanded fracking operations. Fracking and LNG production accelerate climate change and release harmful pollutants-including benzene, toluene, formaldehyde, and particulate matter linked with asthma, heart disease, birth defects, and childhood leukemia." Lem said northeastern B.C. communities adjacent to fracking operations "are already experiencing these impacts, with higher rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes and respiratory diseases. Indigenous communities are disproportionately affected, with studies showing elevated levels of fracking-related chemicals in household air, water, and the bodies of pregnant women compared to unexposed populations. Health care professionals are moving away from these communities with their families because of their lived experience with the local health impacts of fracking, exacerbating issues with access to care. This represents a serious environmental justice issue that demands immediate attention." "We're already seeing the health consequences of climate change in B.C. through more frequent and intense wildfires, heat domes, and flooding," added family doctor Dr. Bethany Ricker, a Nanaimo-based representative of CAPE-BC. "By expanding LNG production, we're locking in decades of these climate-related health emergencies." Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told the fossil energy show that Canadian oil and gas exports can be an "antidote" to the current geopolitical chaos, CP writes, while claiming outsized benefits from LNG as a climate solutions. View our latest digests "By moving more natural gas, we can also help countries transition away from higher emitting fuels, such as coal." Smith cited a recent study by the fossil industry-funded Fraser Institute that claimed if Canada were to double its gas production, export the additional supply to Asia, and displace coal there, it would lead to an annual emissions cut of up to 630 million tonnes annually. "That's almost 90% of Canada's total greenhouse gas emissions each year," Smith said. The primary component of natural gas, fracked or otherwise, is methane, a climate super-pollutant about 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide over the 20-year span when humanity will be scrambling to get climate change under control. And actual scientists doing real research say methane releases from fracking operations, controlled or not, can make the climate impact of gas as bad as or worse than coal. But CP says the authors of the Fraser Institute study, released in May, still maintained that LNG's claims to reduce emissions elsewhere should be factored into Canadian climate policy. "It is important to recognize that GHG emissions are global and are not confined by borders," wrote Elmira Aliakbari and Julio Mejia. "Instead of focusing on reducing domestic GHG emissions in Canada by implementing various policies that hinder economic growth, governments must shift their focus toward global GHG reductions and help the country cut emissions worldwide by expanding its LNG exports." Many experts see a murkier picture. Most credible estimates suggest that if LNG were to indeed displace coal abroad, there would be some emissions reductions, said Kent Fellows, assistant professor of economics with the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy. But the magnitude is debatable. "Will all of our natural gas exports be displacing coal? Absolutely not. Will a portion of them be displacing coal? Probably, and it's really hard to know exactly what that number is," he said. Fellows said there's a good chance Canadian supplies would supplant other sources of gas from Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East, perhaps making it a wash emissions-wise. He said the Canadian gas could actually be worse from an emissions standpoint, depending on how the competing supply moves. LNG is more energy intensive than pipeline shipment because the gas needs to be liquefied and moved on a ship. In China, every type of energy is in demand. So instead of displacing coal, LNG would likely just be added to the mix, Fellows added. "Anyone who's thinking about this as one or the other is thinking about it wrong," Fellows said. A senior analyst with Investors for Paris Compliance, which aims to hold Canadian publicly-traded companies to their net-zero promises, said he doubts a country like India would see the economic case for replacing domestically produced coal with imported Canadian gas. "Even at the lowest price of gas, it's still multiple times the price," said Michael Sambasivam. "You'd need some massive system to provide subsidies to developing countries to be replacing their coal with a fuel that isn't even really proven to be much greener." And even in that case, "it's not as if they can just flip a switch and take it in," he added. "There's a lot of infrastructure that needs to be built to take in LNG as well as to use it. You have to build import terminals. You have to refit your power terminals." Moreover, the world is not many months away from a global glut of LNG that will further erode demand for Canadian gas. "As pointed out by the IEA [last month], we are at the cusp of 'the largest capacity wave in any comparable period in the history of LNG markets,'" wrote Alexandra Scott, senior climate diplomacy expert with Italy's ECCO climate think tank, and Luca Bergamaschi, the organization's co-founding executive director. "This would have profound impact on global gas markets at a time when major gas consumers, namely Europe and China, show trends of much lower demand than expected, as both blocs electrify their economy and increase efficiency." What LNG would be competing head-to-head with, Sambasivam told CP, is renewable energy. And if there were any emissions reductions abroad as a result of the coal-to-gas switch, Sambasivam said he doesn't see why a Canadian company should get the credit. "Both parties are going to want to claim the emissions savings and you can't claim those double savings," he said. There's also a "jarring" double-standard at play, he said, as industry players have long railed against environmental reviews that factor in emissions from the production and combustion of the oil and gas a pipeline carries, saying only the negligible emissions from running the infrastructure itself should be considered. Devyani Singh, an investigative researcher at who ran for the Greens in last year's B.C. election, said arguments that LNG is a green fuel are undermined by the climate impacts of producing, liquefying, and shipping it. Methane that leaks from tanks, pipelines, and wells has been a major issue that industry, government, and environmental groups have been working to tackle. "Have we actually accounted for all the leakage along the whole pipeline? Have we accounted for the actual under-reporting of methane emissions happening in B.C. and Canada?" asked Singh. Even if LNG does have an edge over coal, thinking about it as a "transition" or "bridge" fuel at this juncture is a problem, she said. "The time for transition fuels is over," she said. "Let's just be honest-we are in a climate crisis where the time for transition fuels was over a decade ago." The main body of this report was first published by The Canadian Press on June 29, 2025. Source: The Energy Mix
Canada News.Net
03-07-2025
- Health
- Canada News.Net
Canada's LNG Touted-And Doubted-as 'Transition' Fuel as Doctors Sound the Alarm
Doctors and health professionals are flagging significant health risks in British Columbia and around the world as Canada's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes make their way toward Asian shores. Some analysts, meanwhile, are touting the industry milestone-and more credible voices are doubting it-as a boon for global efforts to curb the greenhouse gas emissions driving the climate emergency. LNG Canada said Monday that the vessel GasLog Glasgow has departed the northern port of Kitimat, British Columbia, full of ultra-chilled natural gas, The Canadian Press reports. LNG Canada hasn't confirmed the overall price tag for the project. But the federal government has billed it as the biggest private sector investment in Canadian history-$40 billion between the Kitimat operation, the northeast B.C. gas fields supplying it, and the pipeline in between. Shell and four Asian companies are partners in LNG Canada, the first facility to export Canadian gas across the Pacific in the ultra-chilled state using specialized tankers. A handful of other projects are either under construction or in development on the B.C. coast. "Cleaner energy around the world is what I think about when I think about LNG," Shell Canada country chair Stastia West said in an onstage interview at the Global Energy Show in Calgary in June. But "clean" was not quite the adjective the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment attached to LNG in an early July release. "The departure of this first LNG tanker marks a troubling new chapter in British Columbia's health story," family physician and CAPE President Dr. Melissa Lem said in a release. "While industry celebrates, health care professionals are bracing for the consequences of expanded fracking operations. Fracking and LNG production accelerate climate change and release harmful pollutants-including benzene, toluene, formaldehyde, and particulate matter linked with asthma, heart disease, birth defects, and childhood leukemia." Lem said northeastern B.C. communities adjacent to fracking operations "are already experiencing these impacts, with higher rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes and respiratory diseases. Indigenous communities are disproportionately affected, with studies showing elevated levels of fracking-related chemicals in household air, water, and the bodies of pregnant women compared to unexposed populations. Health care professionals are moving away from these communities with their families because of their lived experience with the local health impacts of fracking, exacerbating issues with access to care. This represents a serious environmental justice issue that demands immediate attention." "We're already seeing the health consequences of climate change in B.C. through more frequent and intense wildfires, heat domes, and flooding," added family doctor Dr. Bethany Ricker, a Nanaimo-based representative of CAPE-BC. "By expanding LNG production, we're locking in decades of these climate-related health emergencies." Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told the fossil energy show that Canadian oil and gas exports can be an "antidote" to the current geopolitical chaos, CP writes, while claiming outsized benefits from LNG as a climate solutions. View our latest digests "By moving more natural gas, we can also help countries transition away from higher emitting fuels, such as coal." Smith cited a recent study by the fossil industry-funded Fraser Institute that claimed if Canada were to double its gas production, export the additional supply to Asia, and displace coal there, it would lead to an annual emissions cut of up to 630 million tonnes annually. "That's almost 90% of Canada's total greenhouse gas emissions each year," Smith said. The primary component of natural gas, fracked or otherwise, is methane, a climate super-pollutant about 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide over the 20-year span when humanity will be scrambling to get climate change under control. And actual scientists doing real research say methane releases from fracking operations, controlled or not, can make the climate impact of gas as bad as or worse than coal. But CP says the authors of the Fraser Institute study, released in May, still maintained that LNG's claims to reduce emissions elsewhere should be factored into Canadian climate policy. "It is important to recognize that GHG emissions are global and are not confined by borders," wrote Elmira Aliakbari and Julio Mejia. "Instead of focusing on reducing domestic GHG emissions in Canada by implementing various policies that hinder economic growth, governments must shift their focus toward global GHG reductions and help the country cut emissions worldwide by expanding its LNG exports." Many experts see a murkier picture. Most credible estimates suggest that if LNG were to indeed displace coal abroad, there would be some emissions reductions, said Kent Fellows, assistant professor of economics with the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy. But the magnitude is debatable. "Will all of our natural gas exports be displacing coal? Absolutely not. Will a portion of them be displacing coal? Probably, and it's really hard to know exactly what that number is," he said. Fellows said there's a good chance Canadian supplies would supplant other sources of gas from Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East, perhaps making it a wash emissions-wise. He said the Canadian gas could actually be worse from an emissions standpoint, depending on how the competing supply moves. LNG is more energy intensive than pipeline shipment because the gas needs to be liquefied and moved on a ship. In China, every type of energy is in demand. So instead of displacing coal, LNG would likely just be added to the mix, Fellows added. "Anyone who's thinking about this as one or the other is thinking about it wrong," Fellows said. A senior analyst with Investors for Paris Compliance, which aims to hold Canadian publicly-traded companies to their net-zero promises, said he doubts a country like India would see the economic case for replacing domestically produced coal with imported Canadian gas. "Even at the lowest price of gas, it's still multiple times the price," said Michael Sambasivam. "You'd need some massive system to provide subsidies to developing countries to be replacing their coal with a fuel that isn't even really proven to be much greener." And even in that case, "it's not as if they can just flip a switch and take it in," he added. "There's a lot of infrastructure that needs to be built to take in LNG as well as to use it. You have to build import terminals. You have to refit your power terminals." Moreover, the world is not many months away from a global glut of LNG that will further erode demand for Canadian gas. "As pointed out by the IEA [last month], we are at the cusp of 'the largest capacity wave in any comparable period in the history of LNG markets,'" wrote Alexandra Scott, senior climate diplomacy expert with Italy's ECCO climate think tank, and Luca Bergamaschi, the organization's co-founding executive director. "This would have profound impact on global gas markets at a time when major gas consumers, namely Europe and China, show trends of much lower demand than expected, as both blocs electrify their economy and increase efficiency." What LNG would be competing head-to-head with, Sambasivam told CP, is renewable energy. And if there were any emissions reductions abroad as a result of the coal-to-gas switch, Sambasivam said he doesn't see why a Canadian company should get the credit. "Both parties are going to want to claim the emissions savings and you can't claim those double savings," he said. There's also a "jarring" double-standard at play, he said, as industry players have long railed against environmental reviews that factor in emissions from the production and combustion of the oil and gas a pipeline carries, saying only the negligible emissions from running the infrastructure itself should be considered. Devyani Singh, an investigative researcher at who ran for the Greens in last year's B.C. election, said arguments that LNG is a green fuel are undermined by the climate impacts of producing, liquefying, and shipping it. Methane that leaks from tanks, pipelines, and wells has been a major issue that industry, government, and environmental groups have been working to tackle. "Have we actually accounted for all the leakage along the whole pipeline? Have we accounted for the actual under-reporting of methane emissions happening in B.C. and Canada?" asked Singh. Even if LNG does have an edge over coal, thinking about it as a "transition" or "bridge" fuel at this juncture is a problem, she said. "The time for transition fuels is over," she said. "Let's just be honest-we are in a climate crisis where the time for transition fuels was over a decade ago." The main body of this report was first published by The Canadian Press on June 29, 2025.
The Province
03-07-2025
- Business
- The Province
B.C. hits LNG milestone with first export shipment from Kitimat. What's next?
First conceived of during different times, LNG Canada's first export shipment arrives just in time to fit Canada's political imperative to diversify trade away from the U.S. First conceived of during different times, LNG Canada's first export shipment arrives just in time to fit Canada's political imperative to diversify trade away from the U.S. Photo by rob trendiak photography B.C.'s energy sector hit a milestone this week with the first export shipment of liquefied natural gas from LNG Canada's mammoth new, $18-billion plant at Kitimat. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by top sports columnists Patrick Johnston, Ben Kuzma, J.J. Abrams and others. Plus, Canucks Report, Sports and Headline News newsletters and events. Unlimited online access to The Province and 15 news sites with one account. 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Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors The 291-metre-long LNG tanker GasLog Glasgow departed the north coast port Monday, capping off almost seven years of construction to build what has been billed as the country's biggest-ever private-sector investment at $40 billion in total, which includes $14.5 billion for the 670-kilometre pipeline from Dawson Creek to Kitimat. First conceived more than a decade ago during an earlier frenzy of speculation around the potential for a B.C. LNG industry, its completion coincides with a renewed imperative to diversify Canadian trade in light of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats. Another of B.C.'s LNG hopefuls, Woodfibre LNG CEO Luke Schauerte viewed the event as being 'transformative for LNG Canada (and) transformative for B.C. LNG.' Stay on top of the latest real estate news and home design trends. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'I think it's a market that we're absolutely part of the global energy exporter business for LNG,' Schauerte said. 'And it's providing that diversification in international markets that's so incredibly needed right now.' If all goes to plan, Woodfibre LNG, under construction at the old Woodfibre pulp mill site south of Squamish on Howe Sound, will join LNG Canada in exporting gas sometime in 2027. How much LNG is the GasLog Glasgow taking to market? LNG Canada doesn't disclose details about the 'details and ownership' of cargoes, according to a statement from a company spokesperson, but the plant's two production units, referred to in the industry as 'trains', are designed to produce 14 million tonnes of LNG a year. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. When in full production, LNG Canada estimates it will export 170 to 175 shipments per year, which will mean a vessel will leave the Kitimat terminal almost every other day. Where is first LNG shipment going? That is another detail LNG Canada isn't making public, but the shipping-traffic website Marine Traffic indicates that the GasLog Glasgow is on its way to Incheon, South Korea, where it is estimated to arrive on July 20 as its first stop. Korea's gas utility Kogas is one of the minority partners in the LNG Canada consortium, along with Japan's Mitsubishi Corp. and PetroChina. Major petroleum producer Shell holds a 40-per-cent stake, and Malaysian state-owned Petronas is the next biggest owner. Both are major producers of natural gas in B.C.'s Montney Shale region in the province's northeast. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The first version of LNG Canada's consortium submitted its application to export LNG to what was then known as the National Energy Board almost 15 years ago and received its export permit in February of 2013. The permit, which allowed for a plant to export 670 million tonnes of LNG over 25 years, touched off the development process, which involved an environmental review and benefit agreement with the Haisla First Nation. It took until September of 2018 for the LNG Canada consortium to reach a final investment decision. What are the political expectations now? LNG exports remain controversial over how they will contribute to B.C.'s carbon footprint, at a time when the province is attempting to reduce carbon emissions under its CleanBC program. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Politicians, however, reached for superlatives that leaned on the diversification theme as they provided comments for the historic first shipment. 'At a time when B.C. jobs are under attack, it's more important than ever that we get our resources to global markets and reduce our reliance on the United States,' Premier David Eby said for LNG Canada's news release marking the event. Prime Minister Mark Carney remarked that LNG Canada's completion demonstrates that, 'Canada has what the world needs.' 'With LNG Canada's first shipment to Asia, Canada is exporting its energy to reliable partners, diversifying trade and reducing global emissions — all in partnership with Indigenous peoples.' LNG Canada is the first of five LNG projects at some form of development. Carney, in his statement, repeated his ambition that with its exports, 'Canada can become the world's leading energy superpower with the strongest economy in the G7.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Haisla First Nation Chief Crystal Smith said, 'Our people, our country and the world are better off today, and will be for decades to come,' with LNG Canada. She heralded the consortium's efforts to 'build a relationship first before ever considering building a project.' The Haisla's LNG Canada partnership helped set the stage for the Haisla Nation to take ownership of its own project, Cedar LNG, along with joint-venture partner Pembina Pipeline Corp. Also under construction, it is expected to be complete in 2028. At Woodfibre, Schauerte said that in the meantime, industry participants will be watching LNG Canada's export experience as it develops. 'What we'll learn is the appetite of the international market for our product, our low carbon-intensity product,' Schauerte said. Schauerte contended that the lower emissions-profile of B.C. LNG, along with shorter shipping times to Asia and Canada's reliability as a supplier will help B.C.'s producers find a place in the market. depenner@ Read More Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks Opinion News
