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The Independent
21-03-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Ballistic missile interceptors and pamphlets dropping in France: How Europe is preparing for nuclear war
The pace of re-armament in Europe is accelerating and going in many unexpected directions. The most recent was a report in the French newspaper, Le Figaro, that the French SGDSN (General Secretariat for Defence and National Security) has been preparing a new pamphlet providing advice on how the population might prepare itself for a conflict, including nuclear war. For those who can remember the 1980s, this has echoes of the (at the time derided) pamphlet issued in the UK, 'Protect And Survive'. France has not yet published and released its version – but it shows where the focus is for many European governments right now. In November, Sweden updated its advice to the population about how to prepare for a war. Called, 'In case of crisis or war', the 32-page pamphlet covers what stocks you should keep at home, public alarms and warnings in the event of a crisis, and what to do about your pet! It even has a link to the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (which published the booklet) to an interactive map for the locations of all the civil defence shelters across Sweden – most blocks of flats have one. An earlier version also had tips on guerilla warfare should an enemy invade. All of the Nordic nations, as well as the Baltic States have now issued similar guidance, and homeland defence is not some abstract concept – it is very real. Those states that border Russia, or are in close proximity to it view the actual threat with the seriousness that it deserves. As one example, last year, Sweden upped its home defence budget from SEK8.5bn (£650m) to SEK15bn (£1.15bn) over four years – and this might yet be accelerated. Quite a lot of the spending is set to be on stocks of things such as food, shelters, and medical supplies. If the same percentage of spending in Sweden on home defence was to be spent in the UK, the budget would be over £5bn annually. There is another element to preparations in the event of a conflict: air defences. Many European countries have been investing billions into advanced surface-to-air missiles, especially the US-supplied Patriot system. A key capability of the system is that it has shown that it can intercept quite a wide range of ballistic missiles, as well as advanced cruise missiles. When Ronald Reagan talked in the 1980s about creating a 'Star Wars' defence shield against Soviet missiles, he was laughed at, as the science/engineering at the time could not produce the radars, the missiles, or the command systems to undertake such complex operations. But the video of an Israeli Arrow 3 missile intercepting an Iranian ballistic missile in space or reports of HMS Diamond shooting down Houthi ballistic missiles in the Red Sea shows that a lot of aspects of Reagan's vision are now eminently achievable – albeit at a huge price. What could that be for the UK, where we have absolutely no credible surface-to-air missile defences (apart from a few destroyers, two of which are about to decamp 8,000 miles on a deployment to Asia)? Looking at air defence programmes in Germany, as well as the cash-rich Gulf States, coming up with a 'pretty good' air defence missile system in the UK that could take on many ballistic and cruise missiles would cost £15bn as a start. A more comprehensive air defence missile system? North of £25bn. Put simply, the cost of a weapon that has a good chance of intercepting a ballistic missile is not cheap – but the cost of the damage that the missile can do is even higher. 'Third Party, Fire and Theft' missile defence is acceptable, right up until casualties are suffered. But as the spectre of nuclear stand-offs looms, there is a further issue to consider: an independent European nuclear multi-layer deterrent. The MoD website says about the nuclear deterrent: 'The UK's independent nuclear deterrent has existed for over 60 years to deter the most extreme threats to our national security and way of life, helping to guarantee our safety, and that of our Nato allies.' There has always been an element of the UK deterrent being at the disposal of Nato. France has not done this for decades, although Emmanuel Macron has been much more open to Paris adopting a similar position to the UK, while still keeping the French deterrent independent. Taking the French and the UK strategic deterrents together, this would provide a more-or-less credible top-level nuclear deterrent for Euro-Nato. Where there are serious doubts is in the tactical nuclear deterrent area. The UK gave up tactical nuclear weapons (smaller yield warheads, ones that can be fired from systems as small as an artillery piece). France is now the only European country currently to have its own tactical nuclear weapons. France's non-strategic deterrent, the current ASMP-A near-hypersonic missile, is launched from Rafale fighter bombers, and is being replaced over the next five years by a longer-ranged, faster missile. Again, Macron has posed the question as to whether this part of France's deterrent – a nuclear umbrella – could be placed at Europe's service. At a recent speech at the airbase that contains the air-launched nuclear deterrent, he suggested that elements could be based closer to Germany – heading east. For the rest of European Nato, various countries have offered their air forces to carry and deliver US-supplied (and controlled) tactical nuclear bombs. Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands all have (US-dictated) aircraft dedicated to this mission. However, the political ructions of the past weeks have caused many to have doubts as to whether the USA would release these weapons if there was a crisis (Russia being the opponent) in Europe. The issue about the reliability of the USA over nuclear weapons has had echoes in the UK. In talks with MoD sources last year, raising the issue about whether Washington would release Trident nuclear missiles (the warheads are UK sovereign) to Britain was met with derision. However, whether a Royal Navy Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarine would be guaranteed access to the Trident missile stocks is now no longer a given. When people talk about the US having a 'kill switch' on the UK nuclear deterrent, there is no big red switch somewhere in the Pentagon to power down the UK's Trident missiles. However, access to the stocks could be denied, and if the UK cannot regularly rotate missiles, they would become ineffective over time. This is, in effect, the 'kill switch' people are now concerned about. The solution? Well, over tactical nuclear weapons, Poland has talked for some years now about acquiring these weapons. Put simply, the history of Poland is one of being dominated or sold out by larger powers. Warsaw is reading the lessons of Ukraine bargaining away its stock of nuclear weapons/missiles – and trust in France, Germany, and the UK was already low before the 2022 invasion. Now, trust in the USA has also taken a hit, so even offering to host US tactical nuclear weapons isn't good enough. In short order, only the UK and France could get a tactical nuclear weapons programme together – and the good news is that the two countries already share a series of test and validation tools for warheads. On top of this, the UK has announced that it is resuming the production of highly enriched uranium, the key component for new tactical nuclear weapons. It would be far from inconceivable for a new generation of tactical warheads to be built, and there are a variety of options for missiles to carry those. The 'Step Too Far' for the UK is whether the reliance on the USA for the Trident strategic missiles has ended. If reliability of the USA is now at such a low ebb, might the UK swap horses? An industrial source inside the UK's nuclear enterprise told me: 'There's, actually, never a better time than now if we are to swap Trident for the French M51 [submarine-launched ballistic missile] – we are early enough in the Dreadnought programme to achieve it.' Almost all of this would have been completely unthinkable even six months ago – that's how fast things are moving. Anyone suggesting that the UK government would need to issue a pamphlet about building your own shelter in your house would have been completely ridiculed. But look East – this is exactly what a dozen countries are doing and have been doing for over a year. The previous Conservative government did start to look at issuing advice – suggestions? – about what every household should stock up on to ensure 'resilience' against natural disasters, but also conflict: wind-up radios, head torches, water – and at the time, the wider reaction was pretty much the same as for the 1980s 'Protect And Survive' pamphlet. It is now to Starmer's government to re-visit this and take home(land) defence seriously – and also nuclear defence too.
Yahoo
20-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The European countries preparing their citizens for possible war
The French government has created a survival guide for citizens on how to cope with nationwide crises including a nuclear attack. Due to be sent out before the summer, the content of the booklet is intended 'to ensure the resilience of populations in the face of all types of crises, whether natural, technological, cyber or security'. The guide also tells citizens to 'protect yourself, but also protect the people around you'. It explains how to register as a reserve to carry out civic service if needed – be it military, digital or communal. The 30-page booklet also contains practical advice on what to do in the event of a climate disaster or industrial accident – including building up essential supplies like bottles of water, torches, batteries and first aid kids. The guide, which is expected to be distributed via official websites, social media and discussed in schools, follows the lead of other European countries. Officials from the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN), insisting that the booklet was 'absolutely not' to prepare the population for 'the prospect of war – unlike in Sweden'. However, while it does not specifically mention the threat of invasion, it comes in the shadow of Russia's ongoing war with Ukraine – and the fears that Vladimir Putin could invade other countries and escalate a wider war with the continent. So what are countries in Europe doing to prepare their citizens in case of conflict? Yahoo explains... In November last year, Sweden updated its guide on how to survive in the event of a war. The country has faced escalating threats from Russia – particularly after it joined Nato last year. However, the updated guidance did not mention Russia by name. Nevertheless, Russia would likely be the aggressor in the event of a war and citizens have been told to 'mentally prepare' for the possibility of an armed conflict. The 32-page booklet, titled 'If Crisis or War Comes', was distributed to every household and was it was updated for the first time since 2018 to include the threat of war. It includes advice on stockpiling essentials like water and canned food to last for at least a week, while also gives detailed instructions on how to shelter in the event of air raid sirens going off. Conscription is mandatory for everyone in Sweden over the age of 18, while everyone aged 16-70 is also part of Sweden's 'total defence' – and are obligated to contribute in the event of a war. The guide states: 'If Sweden is attacked, we will never surrender." Finland shares a land border with Russia that stretches over 800 miles – potentially putting the country at greater risk of a potential invasion by Putin's forces. While the country does not have a physical booklet, an online guide called 'Preparing for Incidents and Crises' was made available in November last year. The guide, which does not mention Russia by name, offers advice on how to prepare for emergencies – including military conflicts, cyberattacks, power outages and disinformation. Again, it advises citizens to stockpile food and water for at least three days, as well as pet food and an alternative energy source to deal with the sub-zero climates in the country. Finland has compulsory military or alternative services for all males over 18. Germany's 'Guide for Emergency Preparedness and Correct Action in Emergency Situations' was last updated in 2022 but does give advice for citizens at a time of war. The 48-page booklet is available both online and in physical form and says German citizens should stockpile 10 days of food and five days of water, as well as cash and medicine. Candles, torches and batteries are recommended in the event of a power cut, while there are tips on packing a 'grab bag' if people need to evacuate quickly. Last year, Germany also updated its outlines of wartime plans, including the armed forces beginning training companies on how to respond in the event of a conflict. Compulsory military service was abolished in Germany in 2011 but the debate on conscription has been brought up in the country once again due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Norway's 'You Are Part of Norway's Emergency Preparedness' was issued in 2018 and while it has not been updated since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, it is nevertheless relevant for a Nato country that shares a border with Russia. The 20-page booklet advises stockpiling food for at least a week, as well as cooking equipment and sleeping bags. It states that people should stay indoors at a time of war, unless there are evacuation orders, and securing digital devices in the event of a cyber attack. Military service is also compulsory for men and women aged 19-44. Denmark's 'Prepare for Crises' was relaunched digitally in 2024 and prepares citizens for crises like conflict, and natural disasters. Another country close to Russia physically, Denmark advises people to stockpile enough food and water for three days and keep a crisis kit containing torches, batteries, first aid and medicine. It sets out what to do if hearing a siren and advises using basements for shelter in the event of a conflict, as well as securing online accounts from cyber threats from countries like Russia. Males over 18 are also subject to compulsory military or alternative services. Lithuania is physically close to Russia and Belarus – a country aligned with Russia and sympathetic to Putin's aims. Its LT72 website was last updated in 2023 and its guide is distributed to all households and schools in the country. Again, stockpiling is key – the guide advises enough food and water for 72 hours, as well as a first aid kit, torch, money and a radio. Staying indoors are inside public shelters are recommended in the event of hearing sirens, while it also includes a section on resisting occupation. The booklet advises people to disrupt occupiers non-violently, but also recommends damaging infrastructure to disrupt takeover if people are willing. Lithuania does have military conscription and it is compulsory for selected males aged 18-23. While the UK does not have a physical guide for citizens at a time of emergency or war, there are plenty of resources online. The 'Prepare' page offers advice for people in England in how to deal with things like floods, including stockpiling three days' worth of food and water, as well as first aid kits, torches, batteries and money. The UK Emergency Alerts system sends phone warnings for life-threatening events like terror attacks or natural disasters, while the government recommends making a household plan with emergency contacts and learning first aid. Unlike some other countries, it avoids advice on conflict but there have been calls for the UK to be more like Sweden and be prepared for war. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the UK defence staff, said Britain would benefit in looking at Sweden for their lead at a time of increased risk from Russia. He told the Berlin security conference in 2024: 'We don't have some of the civil aspects or planning aspects that other countries within Nato have as part of their traditions. We are having those conversations to learn from our colleagues and see what might be appropriate for ourselves.' He added: 'The conclusions from Ukraine speak for themselves. Deterrence doesn't start at the barrel of a gun. It starts with a society that can muster a credible answer to the threat of an armed attack.'
Yahoo
19-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
France issues ‘survival manual' to prepare citizens for invasion
France will issue survival manuals to prepare citizens for invasion and any other 'imminent threat' to the country. A new 20-page booklet reportedly includes 63 measures to help the French in case of armed conflict, as well as natural disasters, industrial accidents or a nuclear leak. It will contain advice on how to protect 'yourself and those around you', what to do if a threat is imminent and details of how to get involved in defending your community, including signing up for reserve units or firefighting groups. The French government denies that the three-part booklet is being produced as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine, despite President Emmanuel Macron urging France and Europe to prepare to confront the 'Russian threat' and the possibility of America disengaging from the continent. If approved by François Bayrou, the prime minister, it will be sent to households before the summer, French media reported. It will also suggest putting together a 'survival kit' consisting of at least six litres of water, a dozen tins of food, batteries and a torch, as well as basic medical supplies including paracetamol, compresses and saline solution, according to Europe 1 radio, which reported the story. In case of a nuclear leak, residents should 'lock their doors'. A spokesman from the prime minister's office said: 'The purpose of this document is to ensure the resilience of populations in the face of all types of crisis, whether natural, technological, cyber or security-related,' said a spokesman from the prime minister's office. Le Figaro noted that the timing of the kit's release 'could easily suggest that the state is reacting to the unstable international situation'. However, officials from the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN), who were tasked with drawing it up, were cited as insisting that the aim was 'absolutely not' to uniquely prepare the population for 'the prospect of war – unlike in Sweden'. Late last year, the Scandinavian country sent 5 million leaflets to its inhabitants encouraging them to be prepared for a possible armed conflict. The 32-page booklet 'If Crisis or War Comes' also contains information about how to prepare for war, natural disasters and cyber or terror attacks. The updated version of a pamphlet that Sweden has issued five times since the Second World War doesn't mention Russia, Ukraine or other country by name. But it warns: 'Military threat levels are increasing. We must be prepared for the worst-case scenario – an armed attack on Sweden.' The tips include stocking up non-perishable food and water, keeping cash on hand and growing fruit and vegetables in gardens. Meanwhile, in a separate move, the government in Finland launched a website gathering information on preparedness for different crises. The Nordic neighbours have dropped decades of military non-alignment to join the US-led defence alliance Nato in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 'The security situation is serious and we all need to strengthen our resilience to face various crises and ultimately war,' said Mikael Frisell, the director of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) which sent out the brochures. In comparison, French officials reportedly said the decision to draw up the French booklet had been made in 2022 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic as part of a 'national resilience strategy' to develop the means to deal with them and 'to adapt public communication to the challenges of resilience'. Some of the booklet's leaked recommendations have already sparked mockery. Speaking on France Inter radio, comedian Matthieu Noel poked fun at its advice to 'stock up' and 'shut your doors' in case of a nuclear incident. 'Putin can drop a nuclear bomb on Paris, Ebola can hit the Cantal region, we'll be ready,' he said. He added: 'While you're at it, how about, in case of tsunami, no snorkelling?' 'The end of the world for dummies' was unlikely to raise morale in a country renowned for its propensity for moroseness and high consumption of tranquillisers, he quipped. The UK Government has not indicated it has any intention of preparing a new Protect and Survive public information campaign on what British citizens should do to protect themselves during a nuclear attack. Produced between 1974 and 1980, and intended for release in case of attack, it included a 32-page booklet that advised the public to create a 'fallout room' and 'inner refuge' to protect from radiation, as well as painting their windows white. It was later mocked as a 'charade' by critics. In 2004, the Home Office released a 'Preparing for Emergencies' campaign, which included a 22-page booklet in the wake of the Madrid train bombings that year and the spread of foot and mouth disease. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
19-03-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
France issues ‘survival manual' to prepare citizens for invasion
France will issue survival manuals to prepare citizens for invasion and any other 'imminent threat' to the country. A new 20-page booklet reportedly includes 63 measures to help the French in case of armed conflict, as well as natural disasters, industrial accidents or a nuclear leak. It will contain advice on how to protect 'yourself and those around you', what to do if a threat is imminent and details of how to get involved in defending your community, including signing up for reserve units or firefighting groups. The French government denies that the three-part booklet is being produced as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine, despite President Emmanuel Macron urging France and Europe to prepare to confront the 'Russian threat' and the possibility of America disengaging from the continent. If approved by François Bayrou, the prime minister, it will be sent to households before the summer, French media reported. It will also suggest putting together a 'survival kit' consisting of at least six litres of water, a dozen tins of food, batteries and a torch, as well as basic medical supplies including paracetamol, compresses and saline solution, according to Europe 1 radio, which reported the story. In case of a nuclear leak, residents should 'lock their doors'. A spokesman from the prime minister's office said: 'The purpose of this document is to ensure the resilience of populations in the face of all types of crisis, whether natural, technological, cyber or security-related,' said a spokesman from the prime minister's office. Le Figaro noted that the timing of the kit's release 'could easily suggest that the state is reacting to the unstable international situation'. However, officials from the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN), who were tasked with drawing it up, were cited as insisting that the aim was 'absolutely not' to uniquely prepare the population for 'the prospect of war – unlike in Sweden'. Late last year, the Scandinavian country sent 5 million leaflets to its inhabitants encouraging them to be prepared for a possible armed conflict. The 32-page booklet 'If Crisis or War Comes' also contains information about how to prepare for war, natural disasters and cyber or terror attacks. The updated version of a pamphlet that Sweden has issued five times since the Second World War doesn't mention Russia, Ukraine or other country by name. But it warns: 'Military threat levels are increasing. We must be prepared for the worst-case scenario – an armed attack on Sweden.' The tips include stocking up non-perishable food and water, keeping cash on hand and growing fruit and vegetables in gardens. Meanwhile, in a separate move, the government in Finland launched a website gathering information on preparedness for different crises. The Nordic neighbours have dropped decades of military non-alignment to join the US-led defence alliance Nato in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 'The security situation is serious and we all need to strengthen our resilience to face various crises and ultimately war,' said Mikael Frisell, the director of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) which sent out the brochures. In comparison, French officials reportedly said the decision to draw up the French booklet had been made in 2022 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic as part of a 'national resilience strategy' to develop the means to deal with them and 'to adapt public communication to the challenges of resilience'. Some of the booklet's leaked recommendations have already sparked mockery. Speaking on France Inter radio, comedian Matthieu Noel poked fun at its advice to 'stock up' and 'shut your doors' in case of a nuclear incident. 'Putin can drop a nuclear bomb on Paris, Ebola can hit the Cantal region, we'll be ready,' he said. He added: 'While you're at it, how about, in case of tsunami, no snorkelling?' 'The end of the world for dummies' was unlikely to raise morale in a country renowned for its propensity for moroseness and high consumption of tranquillisers, he quipped. The UK Government has not indicated it has any intention of preparing a new Protect and Survive public information campaign on what British citizens should do to protect themselves during a nuclear attack. Produced between 1974 and 1980, and intended for release in case of attack, it included a 32-page booklet that advised the public to create a 'fallout room' and 'inner refuge' to protect from radiation, as well as painting their windows white. It was later mocked as a 'charade' by critics. In 2004, the Home Office released a 'Preparing for Emergencies' campaign, which included a 22-page booklet in the wake of the Madrid train bombings that year and the spread of foot and mouth disease.
Local France
18-03-2025
- Politics
- Local France
France to distribute crisis survival pamphlets
The French government is reportedly planning to distribute crisis survival manuals to the public. According to French daily Le Figaro , the booklets will explain how to respond to various types of crises, including industrial accidents, severe climate events, cyber attacks and even armed conflict. Le Figaro reported that France's General Secretariat for Defence and National Security has been responsible for creating the booklet. The prime minister's office told Le Figaro that the booklet was in the process of being approved by the prime minister. According to Europe 1, the booklet will be around 20 pages long and will be sent out to all French households over the summer. While the content was allegedly inspired by the manual Sweden released at the end of 2024, the French version is less focused on armed conflict and more based on offering practical advice to "face a few days independently". Advice will apparently include getting contact information for neighbours and creating a 'survival kit' of at least six litres of bottled water, a dozen cans of food and batteries, a flashlight in the event of a power outage, as well as paracetamol, compresses and saline solution, Europe 1 reported. Advertisement Overall, it is expected to be divided into three parts, with the first about 'protecting yourself and those around you' and the second about what to do if a threat is imminent (with lists of emergency numbers and radio channels and reminders to close doors and windows it the crisis is nuclear). Meanwhile, the third part is expected to offer tips on how to 'get involved' in your community (eg. enrolling in the reserves or the volunteer firefighter group). Why now? The French initiative is apparently part of a previously discussed 'National resilience strategy' from April 2022, which was developed in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic to 'prepare France, its businesses and its citizens for shocks and to withstand crises', Le Figaro reported. Nevertheless, plans to distribute a disaster-prep guide come as the French presidency ramps up its response to the international situation. Advertisement At the start of March, French President Emmanuel Macron issued a televised address, advising that the French would need to face Russia. Macron told the French that "Russia has become, at the moment I am speaking to you and for the years to come, a threat to France and Europe (...) It would be madness to remain a spectator in this world of danger." READ MORE: Macron proposes French nuclear extension and Ukraine troop deployment The government has warned that France and other European countries would need to 'rearm', with Macron calling for a boost in defence spending in France and the opening of a debate surrounding whether or not to extend France's nuclear deterrent to other European nations. The president has ruled out bringing back conscription, but said that he was looking at ways that France can 'mobilise civilians' .
