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BBC News
31-07-2025
- Science
- BBC News
Why plane turbulence dey more serious now and dey hapun more and more?
Andrew Davies bin dey go New Zealand to work as project manager for one Doctor Who exhibition. Di first part of im flight from London to Singapore no get wahala but den di plane face serious turbulence. E remember di mata as: "being on a rollercoaster na how I go fit describe am. Afta I bin land ontop my seat very hard, we just drop. My iPad hit me for head, coffee pour me for bodi. Kasala full di cabin and pipo and tins scata evriwia. Pipo bin dey cry and no fit believe wetin just hapun." Oga Davies say e be "one of di lucky ones". Oda passengers collect injuries and broken bones. Geoff Kitchen wey be 73 years die from heart attack. Death sake of turbulence no dey very common. Official numbers no dey but e dey estimated say na only four pipo don die since 1981. But as for di wound, na anoda tori. For just US, since 2009, dem don record 207 serious injuries, injuries wia pesin need to get ova two days admission for hospital for. Dis na according to di official figures from di National Transportation Safety Board show. (166 of dis pipo na crew wey fit no sidon). But as climate change dey affect atmosphere conditions, sabi pipo warn say air travel fit dey bumpier, di temperature change and shift for wind patterns for di upper atmosphere dey expected to increase di frequency and intensity of serious turbulence. Professor Paul Williams wey be atmospheric scientist for di University of Reading tok say, "we dey expect double or triple of di amount of serious turbulence around di world in di next decades. For evri 10 minutes of severe turbulence wey we dey face now, e fit increase to like 20 to 30 minutes." So if di turbulence go become more serious, e fit become more dangerous abi airlines fit find smart ways to make dia planes "turbulence-proof"? Di bumpy North Atlantic route Serious turbulence be wen di up and down movement of plane wen e dey pass disturbed air, release enough force for your bodi to carry you from your seat if you no dey wia seatbelt. E dey estimated say around 5,000 cases of serious or greater turbulence na im dey hapun yearly out of di ova 35 million flights wey dey take off worldwide. Throughout 2023, na turbulence cause almost 40% of all di severe injuries wey passengers catch bicos dem dey fly. Dis na according to di annual safety report by di International Civil Aviation Organization. Between UK and US, Canada and di Caribbean na among di areas wey don dey affected. In di last 40 years, since satellites start to dey observe di atmosphere, dem don be 55% increase for di serious turbulence ova di North Atlantic. But di amount of turbulence don dey projected say e go increase for oda areas too, dat na wetin recent studies tok. E go rise for parts of East Asia, North Africa, North Pacific, North America and di Middle East. See wetin climate change don cause Na three main causes of turbulence dey, dem be convective (clouds or thunderstorms), orographic (air flow around mountainous areas) and clear-air (changes in wind direction or speed). All of dem fit cause severe - serious - turbulence. Pesin fit avoid convective and orographic but you see dat clear air turbulence ehn, you no fit even see am, sometimes e just be like say e dey comot from nowia. Climate change na major reason for di rise of both convective and clear-air turbulence. Even though di relationship between clinate change and thunderstorms dey hard to explain, warmer atmosphere fit get more moisture and dat extreme heat and moisture go mix to make more ogbonge thunderstorms. Back to turbulence, convective turbulence na di physical process of air rising and falling for di atmosphere especially for clouds and you no go find more violent up and down drafts but di ones wey dey thunderstorm clouds. Na wetin cause di severe turbulence for Andre Davies 2024 air trip na. Report from SIngapore Transport Safety Investigation Bureau find out say di plane "bin likely dey fly ova area wey bin get developing convective activity" ova South Myanmar wey cause "19 seconds of extreme turbulence wey include drop of 178 feet in just five seconds." One study from di US wey bin dey published for di Science journal for 2014 show say 1C increase for global temperature dey increase lightning strikes by 12%. Captain Nathan Davies, wey be commercial airline pilot tok say, "I don notice more large storm cells dey spread 80 miles plus in diameter. Dis na sometin wey suppose to be rare." But e add say, di clouds dey very easy to see unless e hide behind oda clouds so dem fit just dodge dem. Clear-air turbulence fit also rise soon. Na disturbed air in and around di jet stream dey cause am. Wind speeds for di jet stream wey dey travel from west to east across di Atlantic fit change from 160mph to 250mph. Colder air dey for di north and warmer air for di south. Di difference in temperature and change in winds dey useful for airliners so dem fit use am as tailwind to take save time and fuels. But e also dey create turbulent air. "Climate change dey warm di air to di south of di jet stream more dan di air to di north so dat temperature difference dey become stronger," Prof Williams explain. "E in turn dey drive a stronger jet stream." 'E suppose worry all of us' Some passengers dey worry bicos di increase wit severe turbulence wey fit lift pesin comot from chair fit potentially bring more incidents of injury or possible death for di most severe cases. Oga Davies dey fear ova di change of more turbulence and e say no be just for am but for im pikin too. E tok say, "I dey pleased say issue wey serious like my own never hapun, but I tink say e suppose worry us". Ova one fifth of UK adults say dem dey fear to fly. Dis na according to recent YouGov survey and if di turbulence go worse, e fit make travel to be more of a nightmare for dis pipo. As Wendy Barker, wey be nervous flyer from Norfolk, tell me: "More turbulence for me mean more chance for sometin to go wrong and less chance of survival." Aircraft wings dey designed to fly through turbulent air. As Chris Keane wey be former pilot and now dey work as ground-school instructor tok, "you no go believe how flexible wing be. For 747 passenger aircraft, under 'destructive' testing, di wings go bend upwards by some 25 degrees before e break wey dey very extreme and sometin wey no go eva hapun, even for di most severe turbulence." For airlines, dem get anoda hidden concern, dat na di economic costs of more turbulence. Di hidden cost of turbulence AVTECH, wey be tech company wey dey monitor climate and temperature changes - and dey work wit di Met Office to help warn pilots of turbulence - suggest say di costs fit start from £180,000 to £1.5 million per airline yearly. Dis include di money to check and maintain di plane afta di serious turbulence, compensation costs if flight don dey diverted or delayed and costs from going to di wrong location. Eurocontrol, wey be civil-military organisation wey dey help European aviation understand di risk of climate change say, to dodge dis turbulence producing storms fit cause crowded airspace for some areas bicos of change to flight paths. E also mean extra fuel and time wey dey cause extra CO2, Di expectation be say di need to doge bad weather go rise more by 2050. How airlines dey do turbulence-proofing Forecasting turbulence don dey beta recenntly as Prof Williams say dem fit correctly forecast like 75% of clean air turbulence correctly wen you compare am to 60% twenty years ago. Capt Davies explain say before flights, most airlines go produce flight plan wey go use computer modelling take chook eye for wia turbulence fit be for di route even though e no dey 100% accurate, na good idea make pesin use oda aircraft and Air Traffic Control reports as dem dey move. Southwest Airlines for US recently decide say dem go dey end cabin service wen di plane dey 18,000ft instead of di 10,000ft dem dey use before, so di crew and passengers go don sidon and ready to land for dis level wey dem suggest say go drop di injuries turbulence dey cause by 20%. Last year sef, Korean Airlines say dem no go give passengers noodles again for economy so passengers no go burn demselves as dem don see times two turbulence since 2019. From owls to AI: extreme measures Some studies don dey look at different ways to build wings. Sabi pipo don study di way owl dey fly for windy area and find out say di wings dey act as suspension and dey stabilise di head and chest as e dey fly dia. So di study wey dem publish for di Royal Society proceedings for 2020 conclude say, dat kain wing design fit dey useful for small scale aircraft. Anoda start up for Austria wey dem dey call Turbulence Solutions claim say dem don build sensor wey go see turbulent air and alarm flap for di wing to dodge am. Di company CEO say e fit reduce moderate turbulence for light aircraft by 80%. Some dey wey dey argue say AI solve am. Fourier Adaptive Learning and Control (FALCON) na one kain technology wey dem dey research for di California Institute of Technology, wey dey learn how turbulent air dey flow across wing in real time. Dat one sef dey sense turbulence den e go come tell di flap of di wing to adjust and dodge am. But some pipo like aerospace engineer, Finlay Asher dey reason say all dis technology no go dey for big commercial planes for di next few decades. But oda sabi pipo dey reason say all dis more frequent turbulence no be big deal, las-las, wetin e mean be say dem go be more sitting down wit di seatbelt on. Top Image credit: Ivan-balvan via GETTY
BBC News
30-07-2025
- Science
- BBC News
Why plane turbulence is becoming more frequent
BBC Listen to this article being read Andrew Davies was on his way to New Zealand to work on a Doctor Who exhibition, for which he was project manager. The first leg of his flight from London to Singapore was fairly smooth. Then suddenly the plane hit severe turbulence. "Being on a rollercoaster is the only way I can describe it," he recalls. "After being pushed into my seat really hard, we suddenly dropped. My iPad hit me in the head, coffee went all over me. There was devastation in the cabin with people and debris everywhere. "People were crying and [there was] just disbelief about what had happened." Mr Davies was, he says, "one of the lucky ones". Other passengers were left with gashes and broken bones. Geoff Kitchen, who was 73, died of a heart attack. Death as a consequence of turbulence is extremely rare. There are no official figures but there are estimated to have been roughly four deaths since 1981. Injuries, however, tell a different story. In the US alone, there have been 207 severe injuries - where an individual has been admitted to hospital for more than 48 hours - since 2009, official figures from the National Transportation Safety Board show. (Of these, 166 were crew and may not have been seated.) But as climate change shifts atmospheric conditions, experts warn that air travel could become bumpier: temperature changes and shifting wind patterns in the upper atmosphere are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence. "We can expect a doubling or tripling in the amount of severe turbulence around the world in the next few decades," says Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading. "For every 10 minutes of severe turbulence experienced now, that could increase to 20 or 30 minutes." So, if turbulence does get more intense, could it become more dangerous too - or are there clever ways that airlines can better "turbulence-proof" their planes? Severe turbulence is defined as when the up and down movements of a plane going through disturbed air exert more than 1.5g-force on your body - enough to lift you out of your seat if you weren't wearing a seatbelt. Estimates show that there are around 5,000 incidents of severe-or-greater turbulence every year, out of a total of more than 35 million flights that now take off globally. Of the severe injuries caused to passengers flying throughout 2023 - almost 40% were caused by turbulence, according to the annual safety report by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The route between the UK and the US, Canada and the Caribbean is among the areas known to have been affected. Over the past 40 years, since satellites began observing the atmosphere, there has been a 55% increase in severe turbulence over the North Atlantic. But the frequency of turbulence is projected to increase in other areas too according to a recent study - among them, parts of East Asia, North Africa, North Pacific, North America and the Middle East. The knock-on effect of climate change There are three main causes of turbulence: convective (clouds or thunderstorms), orographic (air flow around mountainous areas) and clear-air (changes in wind direction or speed). Each type could bring severe turbulence. Convective and orographic are often more avoidable - it is the clear-air turbulence that, as the name might imply, cannot be seen. Sometimes it seemingly comes out of nowhere. KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV /AFP via Getty Climate change is a major factor in driving up both convective and clear-air turbulence. While the relationship between climate change and thunderstorms is complex, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture - and that extra heat and moisture combine to make more intense thunderstorms. Linking this back to turbulence — convective turbulence is created by the physical process of air rising and falling in the atmosphere, specifically within clouds. And you won't find more violent up and downdrafts than in cumulonimbus, or thunderstorm clouds. This was the cause of the severe turbulence on Andrew Davies's journey back in 2024. A report by Singapore's Transport Safety Investigation Bureau found that the plane was "likely flying over an area of developing convective activity" over south Myanmar, leading to "19 seconds of extreme turbulence that included a drop of 178 feet in just under five seconds". One study from the US published in the Science journal in 2014 showed that for 1C increase in global temperature, lightning strikes increase by 12%. Captain Nathan Davies, a commercial airline pilot, says: "I have noticed more large storm cells spreading 80 miles plus in diameter in the last few years, something you'd expect to be rare." But he adds: "The large cumulonimbus clouds are easy to spot visually unless embedded within other clouds, so we can go around them." Clear-air turbulence could also soon rise. It is caused by disturbed air in and around the jet stream, (a fast-moving wind at around six miles in the atmosphere, which is the same height as where planes cruise). Wind speeds in the jet stream travelling from west to east across the Atlantic can vary from 160mph to 250mph. There is colder air to the north and warmer air to the south: this temperature difference and change in winds is useful for airliners to use as a tailwind to save time and fuel. But it also creates the turbulent air. "Climate change is warming the air to the south of the jet stream more than the air to the north so that temperature difference is being made stronger," explains Prof Williams. "Which in turn is driving a stronger jet stream." 'It should worry us all' The increase in severe turbulence - enough to lift you out of your seat - could potentially bring more incidents of injury, or possibly death in the most severe cases. And some passengers are concerned. For Mr Davies, the prospect of more turbulence is worrying. "A lot. Not just for me, but my children too," he explains. "I'm pleased there hasn't been an incident as severe as mine but I think it should worry us all". More than a fifth of UK adults say they are scared of flying, according to a recent YouGov survey, and worsening turbulence could make journeys even more of a nightmare for these people. As Wendy Barker, a nervous flyer from Norfolk, told me: "More turbulence to me equals more chance of something going wrong and less chance of survival." Aircraft wings are, however, designed to fly through turbulent air. As Chris Keane, a former pilot and now ground-school instructor says, "you won't believe how flexible a wing is. In a 747 passenger aircraft, under 'destructive' testing, the wings are bent upwards by some 25 degrees before they snap, which is really extreme and something that will never happen, even in the most severe turbulence." For airlines, however, there is a hidden concern: that is the economic costs of more turbulence. The hidden cost of turbulence AVTECH, a tech company that monitors climate and temperature changes - and works with the Met Office to help warn pilots of turbulence - suggests that the costs can range from £180,000 to £1.5 million per airline annually. This includes the costs of having to check and maintain aircraft after severe turbulence, compensation costs if a flight has to be diverted or delayed, and costs associated with being in the wrong location. Eurocontrol, a civil-military organisation that helps European aviation understand climate change risks, says that diverting around turbulence-producing storms can have a wider impact - for example, if lots of aircraft are having to change flight paths, airspace can get more crowded in certain areas. "[This] increases workload for pilots and air traffic controllers considerably," says a Eurocontrol spokesperson. Having to fly around storms also means extra fuel and time. In 2019 for example, Eurocontrol says bad weather "forced airlines to fly one million extra kilometres, producing 19,000 extra tonnes of CO2." With extreme weather predicted to increase, they expect flights will need to divert around bad weather such as storms and turbulence even more by 2050. "Further driving up the costs to airlines, passengers and [increasing] their carbon footprint." How airlines are turbulence-proofing Forecasting turbulence has got better in recent years and while it is not perfect, Prof Williams suggests we can correctly forecast about 75% of clear-air turbulence. "Twenty years ago it was more like 60% so thanks to better research that figure is going up and up over time," he says. Aircraft have weather radar that will pick up storms ahead. As Capt Davies explains, "Before a flight, most airlines will produce a flight plan that details areas of turbulence likely throughout the route, based on computer modelling." It is not 100% accurate, but "it gives a very good idea combined with other aircraft and Air Traffic Control reports once we are en-route". Southwest Airlines in the US recently decided to end cabin service earlier, at 18,000ft instead of the previous 10,000ft. By having the crew and passengers seated with belts on ready for landing at this altitude, Southwest Airlines suggests it will cut turbulence-related injuries by 20%. Also last year, Korean Airlines decided to stop serving noodles to its economy passengers as it had reported a doubling of turbulence since 2019, which raised the risk of passengers getting burned. From owls to AI: extreme measures Some studies have taken turbulence-proofing even further, and looked at alternative ways to build wings. Veterinarians and engineers have studied how a barn owl flies so smoothly in gusty winds, and discovered wings act like a suspension and stabilise the head and torso when flying through disturbed air. The study published in the Royal Society proceedings in 2020 concluded that "a suitably tuned, hinged-wing design could also be useful in small-scale aircraft…helping reject gusts and turbulence". Separately, a start-up in Austria called Turbulence Solutions claims to have created turbulence cancelling technology for light aircraft, where a sensor detects turbulent air and sends a signal to a flap on the wing which counteracts that turbulence. These can reduce moderate turbulence by 80% in light aircraft, according to the company's CEO. NurPhoto via Getty Then there are those arguing that AI could be a solution. Fourier Adaptive Learning and Control (FALCON) is a type of technology being researched at the California Institute of Technology that learns how turbulent air flows across a wing in real-time. It also anticipates the turbulence, giving commands to a flap on the wing which then adjusts to counteract it. However Finlay Asher, an aerospace engineer and member of Safe Landing, a community of aviation workers calling for a more sustainable future in aviation, explained that these types of technology are some time away. "[They're] unlikely to appear on large commercial aircraft within the next couple of decades." But even if turbulence does become more frequent, and more severe, experts argue this isn't cause for worry. "It's generally nothing more than annoying," says Captain Davies. But it might mean more time sitting down, with the seat-belt fastened. Andrew Davies has already learnt this the hard way: "I do get a lot more nervous and don't look forward to flying like I used to," he admits. "But I won't let it define me. "The moment I sit down, my seat belt goes on and if I do need to get up, I pick my moment - then I'm quickly back in my seat, buckled up again." Top Image credit: Ivan-balvan via GETTY BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below. Aviation accidents and incidents Singapore Air travel Climate change Technology
Yahoo
30-07-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Why plane turbulence is really becoming more frequent
Andrew Davies was on his way to New Zealand to work on a Doctor Who exhibition, for which he was project manager. The first leg of his flight from London to Singapore was fairly smooth. Then suddenly the plane hit severe turbulence. "Being on a rollercoaster is the only way I can describe it," he recalls. "After being pushed into my seat really hard, we suddenly dropped. My iPad hit me in the head, coffee went all over me. There was devastation in the cabin with people and debris everywhere. "People were crying and [there was] just disbelief about what had happened." Mr Davies was, he says, "one of the lucky ones". Other passengers were left with gashes and broken bones. Geoff Kitchen, who was 73, died of a heart attack. Death as a consequence of turbulence is extremely rare. There are no official figures but there are estimated to have been roughly four deaths since 1981. Injuries, however, tell a different story. In the US alone, there have been 207 severe injuries - where an individual has been admitted to hospital for more than 48 hours - since 2009, official figures from the National Transportation Safety Board show. (Of these, 166 were crew and may not have been seated.) But as climate change shifts atmospheric conditions, experts warn that air travel could become bumpier: temperature changes and shifting wind patterns in the upper atmosphere are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence. "We can expect a doubling or tripling in the amount of severe turbulence around the world in the next few decades," says Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading. "For every 10 minutes of severe turbulence experienced now, that could increase to 20 or 30 minutes." So, if turbulence does get more intense, could it become more dangerous too - or are there clever ways that airlines can better "turbulence-proof" their planes? The bumpy North Atlantic route Severe turbulence is defined as when the up and down movements of a plane going through disturbed air exert more than 1.5g-force on your body - enough to lift you out of your seat if you weren't wearing a seatbelt. Estimates show that there are around 5,000 incidents of severe-or-greater turbulence every year, out of a total of more than 35 million flights that now take off globally. Of the severe injuries caused to passengers flying throughout 2023 - almost 40% were caused by turbulence, according to the annual safety report by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The route between the UK and the US, Canada and the Caribbean is among the areas known to have been affected. Over the past 40 years, since satellites began observing the atmosphere, there has been a 55% increase in severe turbulence over the North Atlantic. But the frequency of turbulence is projected to increase in other areas too according to a recent study - among them, parts of East Asia, North Africa, North Pacific, North America and the Middle East. The knock-on effect of climate change There are three main causes of turbulence: convective (clouds or thunderstorms), orographic (air flow around mountainous areas) and clear-air (changes in wind direction or speed). Each type could bring severe turbulence. Convective and orographic are often more avoidable - it is the clear-air turbulence that, as the name might imply, cannot be seen. Sometimes it seemingly comes out of nowhere. Climate change is a major factor in driving up both convective and clear-air turbulence. While the relationship between climate change and thunderstorms is complex, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture - and that extra heat and moisture combine to make more intense thunderstorms. Linking this back to turbulence — convective turbulence is created by the physical process of air rising and falling in the atmosphere, specifically within clouds. And you won't find more violent up and downdrafts than in cumulonimbus, or thunderstorm clouds. This was the cause of the severe turbulence on Andrew Davies's journey back in 2024. A report by Singapore's Transport Safety Investigation Bureau found that the plane was "likely flying over an area of developing convective activity" over south Myanmar, leading to "19 seconds of extreme turbulence that included a drop of 178 feet in just under five seconds". One study from the US published in the Science journal in 2014 showed that for 1C increase in global temperature, lightning strikes increase by 12%. Captain Nathan Davies, a commercial airline pilot, says: "I have noticed more large storm cells spreading 80 miles plus in diameter in the last few years, something you'd expect to be rare." But he adds: "The large cumulonimbus clouds are easy to spot visually unless embedded within other clouds, so we can go around them." More from InDepth Boeing's 787 Dreamliner was deemed the 'safest' of planes. The whistleblowers were always less sure HS2 was doomed to be a mess, say insiders - because of a 'problem in this country' How the rise of green tech is feeding another environmental crisis Clear-air turbulence could also soon rise. It is caused by disturbed air in and around the jet stream, (a fast-moving wind at around six miles in the atmosphere, which is the same height as where planes cruise). Wind speeds in the jet stream travelling from west to east across the Atlantic can vary from 160mph to 250mph. There is colder air to the north and warmer air to the south: this temperature difference and change in winds is useful for airliners to use as a tailwind to save time and fuel. But it also creates the turbulent air. "Climate change is warming the air to the south of the jet stream more than the air to the north so that temperature difference is being made stronger," explains Prof Williams. "Which in turn is driving a stronger jet stream." 'It should worry us all' The increase in severe turbulence - enough to lift you out of your seat - could potentially bring more incidents of injury, or possibly death in the most severe cases. And some passengers are concerned. For Mr Davies, the prospect of more turbulence is worrying. "A lot. Not just for me, but my children too," he explains. "I'm pleased there hasn't been an incident as severe as mine but I think it should worry us all". More than a fifth of UK adults say they are scared of flying, according to a recent YouGov survey, and worsening turbulence could make journeys even more of a nightmare for these people. As Wendy Barker, a nervous flyer from Norfolk, told me: "More turbulence to me equals more chance of something going wrong and less chance of survival." Aircraft wings are, however, designed to fly through turbulent air. As Chris Keane, a former pilot and now ground-school instructor says, "you won't believe how flexible a wing is. In a 747 passenger aircraft, under 'destructive' testing, the wings are bent upwards by some 25 degrees before they snap, which is really extreme and something that will never happen, even in the most severe turbulence." For airlines, however, there is a hidden concern: that is the economic costs of more turbulence. The hidden cost of turbulence AVTECH, a tech company that monitors climate and temperature changes - and works with the Met Office to help warn pilots of turbulence - suggests that the costs can range from £180,000 to £1.5 million per airline annually. This includes the costs of having to check and maintain aircraft after severe turbulence, compensation costs if a flight has to be diverted or delayed, and costs associated with being in the wrong location. Eurocontrol, a civil-military organisation that helps European aviation understand climate change risks, says that diverting around turbulence-producing storms can have a wider impact - for example, if lots of aircraft are having to change flight paths, airspace can get more crowded in certain areas. "[This] increases workload for pilots and air traffic controllers considerably," says a Eurocontrol spokesperson. Having to fly around storms also means extra fuel and time. In 2019 for example, Eurocontrol says bad weather "forced airlines to fly one million extra kilometres, producing 19,000 extra tonnes of CO2." With extreme weather predicted to increase, they expect flights will need to divert around bad weather such as storms and turbulence even more by 2050. "Further driving up the costs to airlines, passengers and [increasing] their carbon footprint." How airlines are turbulence-proofing Forecasting turbulence has got better in recent years and while it is not perfect, Prof Williams suggests we can correctly forecast about 75% of clear-air turbulence. "Twenty years ago it was more like 60% so thanks to better research that figure is going up and up over time," he says. Aircraft have weather radar that will pick up storms ahead. As Capt Davies explains, "Before a flight, most airlines will produce a flight plan that details areas of turbulence likely throughout the route, based on computer modelling." It is not 100% accurate, but "it gives a very good idea combined with other aircraft and Air Traffic Control reports once we are en-route". Southwest Airlines in the US recently decided to end cabin service earlier, at 18,000ft instead of the previous 10,000ft. By having the crew and passengers seated with belts on ready for landing at this altitude, Southwest Airlines suggests it will cut turbulence-related injuries by 20%. Also last year, Korean Airlines decided to stop serving noodles to its economy passengers as it had reported a doubling of turbulence since 2019, which raised the risk of passengers getting burned. From owls to AI: extreme measures Some studies have taken turbulence-proofing even further, and looked at alternative ways to build wings. Veterinarians and engineers have studied how a barn owl flies so smoothly in gusty winds, and discovered wings act like a suspension and stabilise the head and torso when flying through disturbed air. The study published in the Royal Society proceedings in 2020 concluded that "a suitably tuned, hinged-wing design could also be useful in small-scale aircraft…helping reject gusts and turbulence". Separately, a start-up in Austria called Turbulence Solutions claims to have created turbulence cancelling technology for light aircraft, where a sensor detects turbulent air and sends a signal to a flap on the wing which counteracts that turbulence. These can reduce moderate turbulence by 80% in light aircraft, according to the company's CEO. Then there are those arguing that AI could be a solution. Fourier Adaptive Learning and Control (FALCON) is a type of technology being researched at the California Institute of Technology that learns how turbulent air flows across a wing in real-time. It also anticipates the turbulence, giving commands to a flap on the wing which then adjusts to counteract it. However Finlay Ashley, an aerospace engineer and member of Safe Landing, a community of aviation workers calling for a more sustainable future in aviation, explained that these types of technology are some time away. "[They're] unlikely to appear on large commercial aircraft within the next couple of decades." But even if turbulence does become more frequent, and more severe, experts argue this isn't cause for worry. "It's generally nothing more than annoying," says Captain Davies. But it might mean more time sitting down, with the seat-belt fastened. Andrew Davies has already learnt this the hard way: "I do get a lot more nervous and don't look forward to flying like I used to," he admits. "But I won't let it define me. "The moment I sit down, my seat belt goes on and if I do need to get up, I pick my moment - then I'm quickly back in my seat, buckled up again." Top Image credit: Ivan-balvan via GETTY BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.
Yahoo
30-07-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Why plane turbulence is really becoming more frequent
Andrew Davies was on his way to New Zealand to work on a Doctor Who exhibition, for which he was project manager. The first leg of his flight from London to Singapore was fairly smooth. Then suddenly the plane hit severe turbulence. "Being on a rollercoaster is the only way I can describe it," he recalls. "After being pushed into my seat really hard, we suddenly dropped. My iPad hit me in the head, coffee went all over me. There was devastation in the cabin with people and debris everywhere. "People were crying and [there was] just disbelief about what had happened." Mr Davies was, he says, "one of the lucky ones". Other passengers were left with gashes and broken bones. Geoff Kitchen, who was 73, died of a heart attack. Death as a consequence of turbulence is extremely rare. There are no official figures but there are estimated to have been roughly four deaths since 1981. Injuries, however, tell a different story. In the US alone, there have been 207 severe injuries - where an individual has been admitted to hospital for more than 48 hours - since 2009, official figures from the National Transportation Safety Board show. (Of these, 166 were crew and may not have been seated.) But as climate change shifts atmospheric conditions, experts warn that air travel could become bumpier: temperature changes and shifting wind patterns in the upper atmosphere are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence. "We can expect a doubling or tripling in the amount of severe turbulence around the world in the next few decades," says Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading. "For every 10 minutes of severe turbulence experienced now, that could increase to 20 or 30 minutes." So, if turbulence does get more intense, could it become more dangerous too - or are there clever ways that airlines can better "turbulence-proof" their planes? The bumpy North Atlantic route Severe turbulence is defined as when the up and down movements of a plane going through disturbed air exert more than 1.5g-force on your body - enough to lift you out of your seat if you weren't wearing a seatbelt. Estimates show that there are around 5,000 incidents of severe-or-greater turbulence every year, out of a total of more than 35 million flights that now take off globally. Of the severe injuries caused to passengers flying throughout 2023 - almost 40% were caused by turbulence, according to the annual safety report by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The route between the UK and the US, Canada and the Caribbean is among the areas known to have been affected. Over the past 40 years, since satellites began observing the atmosphere, there has been a 55% increase in severe turbulence over the North Atlantic. But the frequency of turbulence is projected to increase in other areas too according to a recent study - among them, parts of East Asia, North Africa, North Pacific, North America and the Middle East. The knock-on effect of climate change There are three main causes of turbulence: convective (clouds or thunderstorms), orographic (air flow around mountainous areas) and clear-air (changes in wind direction or speed). Each type could bring severe turbulence. Convective and orographic are often more avoidable - it is the clear-air turbulence that, as the name might imply, cannot be seen. Sometimes it seemingly comes out of nowhere. Climate change is a major factor in driving up both convective and clear-air turbulence. While the relationship between climate change and thunderstorms is complex, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture - and that extra heat and moisture combine to make more intense thunderstorms. Linking this back to turbulence — convective turbulence is created by the physical process of air rising and falling in the atmosphere, specifically within clouds. And you won't find more violent up and downdrafts than in cumulonimbus, or thunderstorm clouds. This was the cause of the severe turbulence on Andrew Davies's journey back in 2024. A report by Singapore's Transport Safety Investigation Bureau found that the plane was "likely flying over an area of developing convective activity" over south Myanmar, leading to "19 seconds of extreme turbulence that included a drop of 178 feet in just under five seconds". One study from the US published in the Science journal in 2014 showed that for 1C increase in global temperature, lightning strikes increase by 12%. Captain Nathan Davies, a commercial airline pilot, says: "I have noticed more large storm cells spreading 80 miles plus in diameter in the last few years, something you'd expect to be rare." But he adds: "The large cumulonimbus clouds are easy to spot visually unless embedded within other clouds, so we can go around them." More from InDepth Boeing's 787 Dreamliner was deemed the 'safest' of planes. The whistleblowers were always less sure HS2 was doomed to be a mess, say insiders - because of a 'problem in this country' How the rise of green tech is feeding another environmental crisis Clear-air turbulence could also soon rise. It is caused by disturbed air in and around the jet stream, (a fast-moving wind at around six miles in the atmosphere, which is the same height as where planes cruise). Wind speeds in the jet stream travelling from west to east across the Atlantic can vary from 160mph to 250mph. There is colder air to the north and warmer air to the south: this temperature difference and change in winds is useful for airliners to use as a tailwind to save time and fuel. But it also creates the turbulent air. "Climate change is warming the air to the south of the jet stream more than the air to the north so that temperature difference is being made stronger," explains Prof Williams. "Which in turn is driving a stronger jet stream." 'It should worry us all' The increase in severe turbulence - enough to lift you out of your seat - could potentially bring more incidents of injury, or possibly death in the most severe cases. And some passengers are concerned. For Mr Davies, the prospect of more turbulence is worrying. "A lot. Not just for me, but my children too," he explains. "I'm pleased there hasn't been an incident as severe as mine but I think it should worry us all". More than a fifth of UK adults say they are scared of flying, according to a recent YouGov survey, and worsening turbulence could make journeys even more of a nightmare for these people. As Wendy Barker, a nervous flyer from Norfolk, told me: "More turbulence to me equals more chance of something going wrong and less chance of survival." Aircraft wings are, however, designed to fly through turbulent air. As Chris Keane, a former pilot and now ground-school instructor says, "you won't believe how flexible a wing is. In a 747 passenger aircraft, under 'destructive' testing, the wings are bent upwards by some 25 degrees before they snap, which is really extreme and something that will never happen, even in the most severe turbulence." For airlines, however, there is a hidden concern: that is the economic costs of more turbulence. The hidden cost of turbulence AVTECH, a tech company that monitors climate and temperature changes - and works with the Met Office to help warn pilots of turbulence - suggests that the costs can range from £180,000 to £1.5 million per airline annually. This includes the costs of having to check and maintain aircraft after severe turbulence, compensation costs if a flight has to be diverted or delayed, and costs associated with being in the wrong location. Eurocontrol, a civil-military organisation that helps European aviation understand climate change risks, says that diverting around turbulence-producing storms can have a wider impact - for example, if lots of aircraft are having to change flight paths, airspace can get more crowded in certain areas. "[This] increases workload for pilots and air traffic controllers considerably," says a Eurocontrol spokesperson. Having to fly around storms also means extra fuel and time. In 2019 for example, Eurocontrol says bad weather "forced airlines to fly one million extra kilometres, producing 19,000 extra tonnes of CO2." With extreme weather predicted to increase, they expect flights will need to divert around bad weather such as storms and turbulence even more by 2050. "Further driving up the costs to airlines, passengers and [increasing] their carbon footprint." How airlines are turbulence-proofing Forecasting turbulence has got better in recent years and while it is not perfect, Prof Williams suggests we can correctly forecast about 75% of clear-air turbulence. "Twenty years ago it was more like 60% so thanks to better research that figure is going up and up over time," he says. Aircraft have weather radar that will pick up storms ahead. As Capt Davies explains, "Before a flight, most airlines will produce a flight plan that details areas of turbulence likely throughout the route, based on computer modelling." It is not 100% accurate, but "it gives a very good idea combined with other aircraft and Air Traffic Control reports once we are en-route". Southwest Airlines in the US recently decided to end cabin service earlier, at 18,000ft instead of the previous 10,000ft. By having the crew and passengers seated with belts on ready for landing at this altitude, Southwest Airlines suggests it will cut turbulence-related injuries by 20%. Also last year, Korean Airlines decided to stop serving noodles to its economy passengers as it had reported a doubling of turbulence since 2019, which raised the risk of passengers getting burned. From owls to AI: extreme measures Some studies have taken turbulence-proofing even further, and looked at alternative ways to build wings. Veterinarians and engineers have studied how a barn owl flies so smoothly in gusty winds, and discovered wings act like a suspension and stabilise the head and torso when flying through disturbed air. The study published in the Royal Society proceedings in 2020 concluded that "a suitably tuned, hinged-wing design could also be useful in small-scale aircraft…helping reject gusts and turbulence". Separately, a start-up in Austria called Turbulence Solutions claims to have created turbulence cancelling technology for light aircraft, where a sensor detects turbulent air and sends a signal to a flap on the wing which counteracts that turbulence. These can reduce moderate turbulence by 80% in light aircraft, according to the company's CEO. Then there are those arguing that AI could be a solution. Fourier Adaptive Learning and Control (FALCON) is a type of technology being researched at the California Institute of Technology that learns how turbulent air flows across a wing in real-time. It also anticipates the turbulence, giving commands to a flap on the wing which then adjusts to counteract it. However Finlay Ashley, an aerospace engineer and member of Safe Landing, a community of aviation workers calling for a more sustainable future in aviation, explained that these types of technology are some time away. "[They're] unlikely to appear on large commercial aircraft within the next couple of decades." But even if turbulence does become more frequent, and more severe, experts argue this isn't cause for worry. "It's generally nothing more than annoying," says Captain Davies. But it might mean more time sitting down, with the seat-belt fastened. Andrew Davies has already learnt this the hard way: "I do get a lot more nervous and don't look forward to flying like I used to," he admits. "But I won't let it define me. "The moment I sit down, my seat belt goes on and if I do need to get up, I pick my moment - then I'm quickly back in my seat, buckled up again." Top Image credit: Ivan-balvan via GETTY BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. 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