01-08-2025
Why stock market fell today: Sensex drops 586 points, Nifty below 24,600. Here are 6 reasons behind the selloff in Indian shares
Indian shares plummeted on Friday, with the Sensex and Nifty falling sharply due to global headwinds and U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. Persistent foreign fund outflows and a strengthening dollar further pressured the market. Pharma stocks also suffered following concerns over potential U.S. price regulations. Technical analysis suggests a further downside, with key support levels being closely watched by analysts.
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1) U.S. tariffs on Indian exports
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2) Persistent FII outflows
3) Weak global market cues
4) Dollar strength intensifies pressure
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5) Pharma stocks under fire
6) Technicals point to further downside
Indian shares ended in the red on Friday, dragged down by a combination of weak global cues, sustained foreign fund outflows, and renewed trade tensions after the U.S. imposed sweeping new tariffs on dozens of countries, including BSE Sensex shed 585.67 points, or 0.72%, to close at 80,599.91, while the NSE Nifty slipped 203 points, or 0.82%, to settle at 24, are six key factors that drove the market downturn:Investor sentiment soured after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a steeper-than-expected 25% tariff on Indian goods. The order affects nearly 70 countries, although India was spared from further penalties over its Russian defence and energy deals. Still, the protectionist move has heightened uncertainty around a possible US-India trade agreement."The Indian equity market extended its decline for a second day, pressured by renewed tariff threats and punitive duties that could undermine India's global trade competitiveness," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been consistent net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 5,588.91 crore on Thursday alone. Over the last nine sessions, cumulative FII selling has crossed Rs 27,000 crore, triggering widespread risk aversion in domestic has been further dampened by disappointing Q1 earnings and the growing dominance of short positions. FIIs have built record bearish bets, with short positions in index futures rising to 90%, the highest since March 2023. The long-to-short ratio dropped to a mere 0.11 at the start of the August series, while the Nifty rollover rate for July slipped to 75.71% from 79.53% in June."Investor sentiment weakened further as FIIs now hold the second-highest net short position in derivatives, reflecting elevated caution," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit markets led a broad global selloff on Friday as investors digested the impact of fresh U.S. tariffs and awaited key US jobs data. Equities in India's regional peers were under pressure, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (ex-Japan) falling 1.5%, bringing its weekly decline to around 2.7%.Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.6%, Chinese blue chips dropped 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost over 1%. South Korea and Taiwan also traded lower after the U.S. announced steep tariffs, including 25% on Indian exports, 20% on Taiwan's, 19% on Thailand's, and 15% on South Korea' downbeat sentiment extended to European equities, with the Stoxx 600 falling 1% in early trade and headed for its worst week since April. Wall Street futures also pointed to a subdued start, weighing further on investor risk appetite dollar index surged 2.5% during the week to climb above 100, marking a two-month high and its strongest weekly performance in nearly three years. The rally has exacerbated capital outflows from emerging markets, including India, and raised the cost of foreign debt."The sharp surge in the dollar index to 100 will nudge the FIIs to continue selling putting pressure on largecaps too. Investors can adopt a wait and watch strategy," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit shares came under pressure after the White House sent letters to 17 global drugmakers urging them to cut U.S. prescription prices to match international benchmarks. The letters also called for the adoption of a Most Favoured Nation (MFN) pricing model within 60 days, raising fears of increased regulatory scrutiny and margin Nifty Pharma index fell 3.3% on Friday, extending its losing streak to a third session and closing 2.9% lower for the week. Sun Pharma was the biggest drag on the Nifty 50, slipping 4.5% after Investec downgraded the stock to 'sell' from 'buy.' Other notable laggards included Aurobindo Pharma, Cipla, Lupin and Gland a technical perspective, the Nifty remains under pressure after failing to reclaim its 200-DMA on the hourly chart, despite a brief recovery on Thursday, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, adding that the index also remained below the 50-EMA on the hourly timeframe throughout Friday's session.'On the daily chart, it has broken below the recent consolidation support at 24,600. Sentiment remains weak, with the potential for the correction to extend towards 24,400–24,450. A further decline is likely if it slips below 24,400,' De Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking, said the Nifty is now approaching its next crucial support at 24,450, and a breach of this level could trigger a retest of the long-term moving average — the 200-day EMA — near 24,180. 'On the upside, the 24,800–25,000 zone is expected to act as a strong hurdle. We maintain our cautious stance and continue to recommend a hedged approach with a negative bias until clear signs of reversal emerge,' he said.
