Latest news with #GeorgeBarros
Mint
2 days ago
- Politics
- Mint
Where Russia is advancing in Ukraine and what it hopes to gain
Russian forces ate into more Ukrainian territory in May than in almost any month since the end of 2022, as the Kremlin presses a summer offensive to create the impression in the West that victory is within its grasp. For the past two years, battlefield momentum has been incremental and costly for both sides. But Russia has managed to accelerate its rate of advance in recent months, as it did last fall, before wet, cold conditions slowed Moscow's progress. Peace talks have stalled, bringing focus back to where the war will ultimately be decided: the battlefield. Russia is seeking sufficient front-line gains to force Kyiv to consent to its demands, which essentially amount to a capitulation. Ukraine wants to hold Russia off and do enough damage to its forces to convince the Kremlin that the cost of not doing a deal is too high. Moscow is pushing on several fronts, probing for weak points and trying to capitalize on its hefty manpower advantage by forcing Ukraine to defend across the entire 600-mile front line. It will also be tougher and costlier for Ukraine to stop Russian infantry assaults now that leaves have returned to trees, obscuring the view of Kyiv's drones, which had been its first line of defense during the winter. As the Kremlin continues to pour men and materiel into Ukraine, its primary goal is to convince those in power in the West that Russia will inevitably win the war and any aid Western allies might offer to Kyiv would be wasted, said George Barros, an analyst focused on the conflict for the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. 'The center of gravity for this war is not terrain—the place where it's being decisively waged is the perception space in Western capitals," said Barros. Referring to the Russians, he added: 'If the map is moving, they're able to say, 'We're making progress. Ukraine is screwed. How many more billions are you going to spend?'" Key to Moscow's latest offensive is the eastern Ukrainian city Kostyantynivka, a crucial logistical hub on the edge of the front line. Earlier this year, Russia began moving troops attacking Pokrovsk, a city further south, toward Kostyantynivka. The shift indicated a change in the direction of its efforts but not necessarily its strategy, analysts said. Recent assaults on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk have proved that Russia is prepared to expend troops, weapons and time trying to capture cities even if they have little strategic value. The battle for Kostyantynivka is likely to be just as brutal and drawn-out, according to Barros. After a recent advance south of the city, Russia now surrounds Kostyantynivka on three sides. 'The city is rapidly transforming into a front line," said one senior lieutenant who is fighting in the area. Advances in attack-drone technology are also making it more difficult for Ukraine to keep the city supplied. Russian fiber-optic drones—which are connected by a thin electronic cable to their pilots to protect them from electric jammers—can now travel up to 25 miles, roughly twice as far as they could a year ago, putting roads connecting the city, and supply vehicles, within range. 'The strikes are frequent and increasingly precise," the senior lieutenant said. Defensive netting is effective, but hasn't been widely implemented, he said. In the north, Moscow's forces have repelled Ukrainian troops who seized parts of Russia's Kursk region after a lightning assault caught the Kremlin off guard last summer. Now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia has massed more than 50,000 troops in the area. In recent days, those forces have pushed across the border into Ukraine's Sumy region, according to open-source analysts. Villages near the border with Russia have been nearly flattened, according to one Ukrainian sergeant fighting in the area who said Russians outnumber Ukrainian troops in the region by around two-to-one. The Russians, he said, appeared to be trying to take Yunakivka, where Ukrainian troops have set up defensive positions and store equipment. 'Their actual goal is Sumy," the regional capital, which sits less than 20 miles from the border, he added. Another infantryman in the Sumy region said the Russians also have an advantage in drones, which makes moving supplies and evacuating wounded very risky. 'The pattern is familiar: The enemy wants to stretch our forces thin across a long front, drain our resources and wear us down," he said, adding that so far troop numbers meant that positions were still defensible. 'They're setting the stage," he said of the Russians. 'The pressure will only increase as the summer goes on." Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said he didn't expect Ukrainian lines to collapse but added that if Russia could get closer to Sumy, it would increase the Kremlin's leverage in negotiations. Even in areas where Russian progress has largely stalled out, Moscow's forces are continuing assaults, hoping to make Ukrainians commit troops there. Around Pokrovsk, Russia is attacking at all hours, according to one Ukrainian captain fighting in the area, even though such assaults have yielded little forward progress for months. 'They want to reach the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast—it's important to them symbolically," a Ukrainian captain in the area said. 'That's why they keep going through open fields and dying there." Ukrainian officials say Moscow is also building up troops in the nearby Zaporizhzhia region. Some Ukrainian special forces have been deployed there to help hold back a possible offensive, according to people familiar with the matter. 'We anticipate worsening conditions across all directions this summer," said the senior lieutenant in the Kostyantynivka area. 'Personnel are exhausted. There are not enough rotations. Everyone is operating at the edge of their limits." Write to Ian Lovett at and Andrew Barnett at
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The maps that show Russia's war machine is stalling
Russia's gains on the battlefield in Ukraine have slowed dramatically in recent months, largely owing to Ukraine's improved drone tactics and defences, according to Western intelligence and analysis. Russia's territorial gains amount to five times less than they were five months ago, with casualty rates rising from Moscow's attempts to break through Kyiv's defences, a senior Nato official said. Western officials and analysts say Ukraine was able to stall Russia's potentially war-winning offensive in the east of the country through a combination of improved drone tactics and defences. Moscow's advances have also been bogged down by cold winter months and combat in built-up areas. George Barros, of the Institute for the Study of War, said the length of Russia's offensive is taking its toll on its soldiers. 'When you continue fighting after the point in which you've been exhausted and the point at which your forces offensive operations are culminated, you can keep fighting, but you're going to get diminishing marginal returns. Your attrition rate is going to go higher, and you're just not going to be quite as effective,' he said. Ukrainian counter-offensives have also helped steadily erode Russia's gain. 'As we expected, Russian gains have slowed as they approached more built-up areas, like Pokrovsk, and their casualty rates have continued to be very, very high,' a senior Nato official said. 'Russia has repeatedly shown that they'll continue to accept that type of strategy – high losses in exchange for slow gains.' Russia launched what could have been a war-winning offensive last summer, capitalising on the capture of Avdiivka, a city in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. In November last year, Moscow's troops had advanced across 730.5 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, but by last month, that figure had dropped to 143 square kilometres, according to a recent update by the Ministry of Defence. 'I would note that, at the same time, Ukraine has made some small tactical gains across those same frontlines,' the Nato official said. 'They have managed to blunt Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. We're seeing similar outcomes around Kharkiv, where Ukrainian drone strikes have been quite effectively preventing Russian forces from advancing.' The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War also confirmed its analysts had seen evidence that Russia's advances had decreased month-on-month between November 2024 and last month. 'Ukrainian forces have conducted localised counterattacks in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions in recent weeks, regaining lost positions in these areas,' the think-tank wrote on Sunday in its latest battlefield update. Since the beginning of the war, drones have been the defining weapon of the conflict. At first, commercial quadcopter drones were used to gather battlefield intelligence, but as Kyiv closed the gap in long-range firepower between Russia, they adapted the drones to carry munitions. Last month, Ukraine's 59th Assault Brigade claimed in a social media post that 85 per cent of the losses inflicted by its men were with unmanned systems. Using drones alongside traditional long-range systems, such as Western-supplied artillery howitzers, has helped Ukraine effectively strike Russian forces within a 30km range. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and one of the most trusted war analysts, recently wrote: 'Drones are responsible for over 60 per cent of the daily Russian Federation casualties at this point, and are the principal means of stopping attacks in combination with mining, and traditional artillery.' Mr Barros said Ukraine's drone attacks have at times destroyed enemy vehicles up to 10 km from the 'zero line', leading to some Russian soldiers resorting to advancing on foot. Despite its advances slowing, Russia continues to grind forward as it seeks to capture as much of Ukrainian territory ahead of any peace negotiations. Vladimir Putin continues to pour resources into his armed forces for his ultimate goal of seizing the entire country – a prize Western officials insist he has not given up on. He recently signed a decree to mobilise 160,000 more troops, Russia's highest number of conscripts in 14 years. But he is not expected to be able to breach Ukraine's defences due to the heavy losses sustained by his forces. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
07-04-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
The maps that show Russia's war machine is stalling
Russia's gains on the battlefield in Ukraine have slowed dramatically in recent months, largely owing to Ukraine's improved drone tactics and defences, according to Western intelligence and analysis. Russia's territorial gains amount to five times less than they were five months ago, with casualty rates rising from Moscow's attempts to break through Kyiv's defences, a senior Nato official said. Western officials and analysts say Ukraine was able to stall Russia's potentially war-winning offensive in the east of the country through a combination of improved drone tactics and defences. Moscow's advances have also been bogged down by cold winter months and combat in built-up areas. George Barros, of the Institute for the Study of War, said the length of Russia's offensive is taking its toll on its soldiers. 'When you continue fighting after the point in which you've been exhausted and the point at which your forces offensive operations are culminated, you can keep fighting, but you're going to get diminishing marginal returns. Your attrition rate is going to go higher, and you're just not going to be quite as effective,' he said. Ukrainian counter-offensives have also helped steadily erode Russia's gain. 'As we expected, Russian gains have slowed as they approached more built-up areas, like Pokrovsk, and their casualty rates have continued to be very, very high,' a senior Nato official said. 'Russia has repeatedly shown that they'll continue to accept that type of strategy – high losses in exchange for slow gains.' Russia launched what could have been a war-winning offensive last summer, capitalising on the capture of Avdiivka, a city in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. In November last year, Moscow's troops had advanced across 730.5 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, but by last month, that figure had dropped to 143 square kilometres, according to a recent update by the Ministry of Defence. 'I would note that, at the same time, Ukraine has made some small tactical gains across those same frontlines,' the Nato official said. 'They have managed to blunt Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. We're seeing similar outcomes around Kharkiv, where Ukrainian drone strikes have been quite effectively preventing Russian forces from advancing.' The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War also confirmed its analysts had seen evidence that Russia's advances had decreased month-on-month between November 2024 and last month. 'Ukrainian forces have conducted localised counterattacks in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions in recent weeks, regaining lost positions in these areas,' the think-tank wrote on Sunday in its latest battlefield update. Since the beginning of the war, drones have been the defining weapon of the conflict. At first, commercial quadcopter drones were used to gather battlefield intelligence, but as Kyiv closed the gap in long-range firepower between Russia, they adapted the drones to carry munitions. Last month, Ukraine's 59th Assault Brigade claimed in a social media post that 85 per cent of the losses inflicted by its men were with unmanned systems. Using drones alongside traditional long-range systems, such as Western-supplied artillery howitzers, has helped Ukraine effectively strike Russian forces within a 30km range. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and one of the most trusted war analysts, recently wrote: 'Drones are responsible for over 60 per cent of the daily Russian Federation casualties at this point, and are the principal means of stopping attacks in combination with mining, and traditional artillery.' Mr Barros said Ukraine's drone attacks have at times destroyed enemy vehicles up to 10 km from the 'zero line', leading to some Russian soldiers resorting to advancing on foot. Despite its advances slowing, Russia continues to grind forward as it seeks to capture as much of Ukrainian territory ahead of any peace negotiations. Vladimir Putin continues to pour resources into his armed forces for his ultimate goal of seizing the entire country – a prize Western officials insist he has not given up on. He recently signed a decree to mobilise 160,000 more troops, Russia's highest number of conscripts in 14 years. But he is not expected to be able to breach Ukraine's defences due to the heavy losses sustained by his forces.
Yahoo
05-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What Trump's aid freeze means for Ukraine war
President Trump's freeze on U.S. aid going to Ukraine threatens to create severe problems for Kyiv in its war against Russia, leaving the country more vulnerable to aerial attacks on population centers and key infrastructure. Experts predict the pause could be felt within a matter of weeks, depending on its scope. 'In terms of the immediate battlefield effect, this is bad,' said George Barros, an expert on the Ukraine-Russia conflict for the Institute for the Study of War. Barros said the freeze will have 'a significant effect' that will become more apparent should the suspension stretch into summer, when ammunition supplies are likely to dwindle. But the biggest gap will be felt when the Ukrainians run low on U.S.-made Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, which could happen within weeks. 'There are certain niche systems and capabilities that the United States provides Ukraine that the Ukrainians do not have an analogue for, and neither do the Europeans, particularly air defense interceptors,' he said. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow with the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said there is simply no European substitute for U.S. air defense munitions such as Patriot interceptors and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles — used to defend from incoming Kremlin drone and missile attacks on cities. Nor is there an easy replacement for long-range strike weapons such as HIMARS and ATACMS, which Ukrainian troops have used to strike targets just over the border in Russia. 'Their critical infrastructure is getting hammered by cruise and ballistic missiles,' Montgomery said. 'Without these weapons systems, more Russian stuff hits, more infrastructure is damaged. Without the long-range strike, Russia can bring contact to the enemy quicker with less risk. This [freeze] makes things worse.' Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said once air defenses are gutted, 'it will force Ukraine to make choices. Do they defend the power station? Or do they defend their F-16 center on the ground? … That's where the pinch will be felt first.' Trump on Monday directed his administration to 'pause' all military aid to Ukraine following a contentious Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week. Trump has been ramping up pressure on Kyiv to sign a critical minerals deal to repay U.S. assistance and agree to major concessions toward a peace deal with Russia. 'The President has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well,' a White House official said in a statement. 'We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.' Senate Republicans, who are generally hawkish on Ukraine, on Tuesday defended Trump's move as a negotiating tactic, predicting it wouldn't last long. But the news has still been met with despair in Ukraine, with parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko telling Sky News that 'thousands of people will die' due to the Trump's 'catastrophic' choice. 'The mood in Ukraine is that of betrayal. The mood is that of hopelessness,' Barros said. 'Telling them, 'Congratulations, you're not getting any more weapons,' it's a very poor incentive to actually try to increase and boost recruitment numbers.' Zelensky has quickly sought to remedy the situation, on Tuesday saying Ukraine is 'ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible' to sign the minerals deal and bring a peace deal closer. 'None of us wants an endless war,' Zelensky said in a statement that did not comment directly on the aid pause. 'Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.' It's unclear what lethal aid earmarked for Ukraine will be affected by the freeze, given that there has been no official statement from the administration on how far the pause will extend and what it will touch. Trump took office with nearly $4 billion in drawdown authority for Ukraine available from previously approved congressional funding, which could now go unused. And he could move to scrap contracts Ukraine has signed with U.S. defense firms – meant to guarantee a steady flow of newly produced arms into the country for at least the next several years. Trump could also withhold training for Ukrainians on weapons maintenance, providing spare parts, or allowing European allies to transfer crucial material such as F-16 fighter jet parts. Ukraine also partners with the U.S. for intelligence and relies on Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network for communication and internet connectivity. The freeze could not come at a better time for Russia, which over the past six months has seen its military tempo decreasing as it has rapidly burned through troops and ammunition, allowing the Ukrainians to increasingly engage in counterattacks in southeastern parts of the country. With these trends, the Kremlin would likely have to face a series of very difficult decisions in how it would resource the war in the coming year, experts say, making it an ideal time to press Russia for hard concessions. With the American aid paused, however, experts said they wouldn't be surprised if the Russians started intensifying their air campaign to try to eliminate what remaining air defense interceptors the Ukrainians have. 'Depending on the intensity of the air campaign, they could run out of interceptors within a matter of days, if not weeks,' Barros said of Ukraine. Once that happens, Moscow 'can really unleash fury.' That has put the spotlight on Europe, which has rallied in support of Ukraine in recent days, with leaders meeting over the weekend to chart a path forward without the U.S. But Europe's ability to fill the gap is limited by various factors, including domestic politics. Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego who studies the war, said despite the supportive rhetoric coming from Europe, leaders will struggle to sell the public on major boosts to defense spending if it requires big sacrifices such as cuts to the social safety net. 'I'm not sure that the Europeans can fill the gap quickly enough, even if they had the political will to do so. Now, they're saying all the right things, but their political reality in Europe is quite difficult,' he said. Ukraine may be able to sustain its current level of resistance for three to six months, Slantchev said, but will eventually have to make painful battlefield decisions if Trump sticks with the freeze. 'Essentially, they will begin to lose territory, because they will have to essentially withdraw to more defensible positions. They will have to rearrange how they do this. It's going to be a lot harder for them,' he said. Trump has proven willing to quickly shift positions in foreign relations as negotiations play out, and Slantchev said the aid suspension may be an attempt to see how far he can push Ukraine toward Russia's negotiating positions. 'This is basically typical Trumpian moves to essentially force Ukraine to show … the absolute maximum they can concede, and then take this to the Russians and see if it will work,' he said. 'My belief is that it will not work, and then all bets are off.' Colin Meyn contributed. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
05-03-2025
- Business
- The Hill
What Trump's aid freeze means for Ukraine war
President Trump's freeze on U.S. aid going to Ukraine threatens to create severe problems for Kyiv in its war against Russia, leaving the country more vulnerable to aerial attacks on population centers and key infrastructure. Experts predict the pause could be felt within a matter of weeks, depending on its scope. 'In terms of the immediate battlefield effect, this is bad,' said George Barros, an expert on the Ukraine-Russia conflict for the Institute for the Study of War. Barros said the freeze will have 'a significant effect' that will become more apparent should the suspension stretch into summer, when ammunition supplies are likely to dwindle. But the biggest gap will be felt when the Ukrainians run low on U.S.-made Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, which could happen within weeks. 'There are certain niche systems and capabilities that the United States provides Ukraine that the Ukrainians do not have an analogue for, and neither do the Europeans, particularly air defense interceptors,' he said. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow with the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said there is simply no European substitute for U.S. air defense munitions such as Patriot interceptors and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles — used to defend from incoming Kremlin drone and missile attacks on cities. Nor is there an easy replacement for long-range strike weapons such as HIMARS and ATACMS, which Ukrainian troops have used to strike targets just over the border in Russia. 'Their critical infrastructure is getting hammered by cruise and ballistic missiles,' Montgomery said. 'Without these weapons systems, more Russian stuff hits, more infrastructure is damaged. Without the long-range strike, Russia can bring contact to the enemy quicker with less risk. This [freeze] makes things worse.' Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said once air defenses are gutted, 'it will force Ukraine to make choices. Do they defend the power station? Or do they defend their F-16 center on the ground? … That's where the pinch will be felt first.' Trump on Monday directed his administration to 'pause' all military aid to Ukraine following a contentious Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week. Trump has been ramping up pressure on Kyiv to sign a critical minerals deal to repay U.S. assistance and agree to major concessions toward a peace deal with Russia. 'The President has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well,' a White House official said in a statement. 'We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.' Senate Republicans, who are generally hawkish on Ukraine, on Tuesday defended Trump's move as a negotiating tactic, predicting it wouldn't last long. But the news has still been met with despair in Ukraine, with parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko telling Sky News that 'thousands of people will die' due to the Trump's 'catastrophic' choice. 'The mood in Ukraine is that of betrayal. The mood is that of hopelessness,' Barros said. 'Telling them, 'Congratulations, you're not getting any more weapons,' it's a very poor incentive to actually try to increase and boost recruitment numbers.' Zelensky has quickly sought to remedy the situation, on Tuesday saying Ukraine is 'ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible' to sign the minerals deal and bring a peace deal closer. 'None of us wants an endless war,' Zelensky said in a statement that did not comment directly on the aid pause. 'Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.' It's unclear what lethal aid earmarked for Ukraine will be affected by the freeze, given that there has been no official statement from the administration on how far the pause will extend and what it will touch. Trump took office with nearly $4 billion in drawdown authority for Ukraine available from previously approved congressional funding, which could now go unused. And he could move to scrap contracts Ukraine has signed with U.S. defense firms – meant to guarantee a steady flow of newly produced arms into the country for at least the next several years. Trump could also withhold training for Ukrainians on weapons maintenance, providing spare parts, or allowing European allies to transfer crucial material such as F-16 fighter jet parts. Ukraine also partners with the U.S. for intelligence and relies on Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network for communication and internet connectivity. The freeze could not come at a better time for Russia, which over the past six months has seen its military tempo decreasing as it has rapidly burned through troops and ammunition, allowing the Ukrainians to increasingly engage in counterattacks in southeastern parts of the country. With these trends, the Kremlin would likely have to face a series of very difficult decisions in how it would resource the war in the coming year, experts say, making it an ideal time to press Russia for hard concessions. With the American aid paused, however, experts said they wouldn't be surprised if the Russians started intensifying their air campaign to try to eliminate what remaining air defense interceptors the Ukrainians have. 'Depending on the intensity of the air campaign, they could run out of interceptors within a matter of days, if not weeks,' Barros said of Ukraine. Once that happens, Moscow 'can really unleash fury.' That has put the spotlight on Europe, which has rallied in support of Ukraine in recent days, with leaders meeting over the weekend to chart a path forward without the U.S. But Europe's ability to fill the gap is limited by various factors, including domestic politics. Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego who studies the war, said despite the supportive rhetoric coming from Europe, leaders will struggle to sell the public on major boosts to defense spending if it requires big sacrifices such as cuts to the social safety net. 'I'm not sure that the Europeans can fill the gap quickly enough, even if they had the political will to do so. Now, they're saying all the right things, but their political reality in Europe is quite difficult,' he said. Ukraine may be able to sustain its current level of resistance for three to six months, Slantchev said, but will eventually have to make painful battlefield decisions if Trump sticks with the freeze. 'Essentially, they will begin to lose territory, because they will have to essentially withdraw to more defensible positions. They will have to rearrange how they do this. It's going to be a lot harder for them,' he said. Trump has proven willing to quickly shift positions in foreign relations as negotiations play out, and Slantchev said the aid suspension may be an attempt to see how far he can push Ukraine toward Russia's negotiating positions. 'This is basically typical Trumpian moves to essentially force Ukraine to show … the absolute maximum they can concede, and then take this to the Russians and see if it will work,' he said. 'My belief is that it will not work, and then all bets are off.'
