The maps that show Russia's war machine is stalling
Russia's gains on the battlefield in Ukraine have slowed dramatically in recent months, largely owing to Ukraine's improved drone tactics and defences, according to Western intelligence and analysis.
Russia's territorial gains amount to five times less than they were five months ago, with casualty rates rising from Moscow's attempts to break through Kyiv's defences, a senior Nato official said.
Western officials and analysts say Ukraine was able to stall Russia's potentially war-winning offensive in the east of the country through a combination of improved drone tactics and defences.
Moscow's advances have also been bogged down by cold winter months and combat in built-up areas.
George Barros, of the Institute for the Study of War, said the length of Russia's offensive is taking its toll on its soldiers. 'When you continue fighting after the point in which you've been exhausted and the point at which your forces offensive operations are culminated, you can keep fighting, but you're going to get diminishing marginal returns. Your attrition rate is going to go higher, and you're just not going to be quite as effective,' he said.
Ukrainian counter-offensives have also helped steadily erode Russia's gain. 'As we expected, Russian gains have slowed as they approached more built-up areas, like Pokrovsk, and their casualty rates have continued to be very, very high,' a senior Nato official said. 'Russia has repeatedly shown that they'll continue to accept that type of strategy – high losses in exchange for slow gains.'
Russia launched what could have been a war-winning offensive last summer, capitalising on the capture of Avdiivka, a city in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. In November last year, Moscow's troops had advanced across 730.5 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, but by last month, that figure had dropped to 143 square kilometres, according to a recent update by the Ministry of Defence.
'I would note that, at the same time, Ukraine has made some small tactical gains across those same frontlines,' the Nato official said. 'They have managed to blunt Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. We're seeing similar outcomes around Kharkiv, where Ukrainian drone strikes have been quite effectively preventing Russian forces from advancing.'
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War also confirmed its analysts had seen evidence that Russia's advances had decreased month-on-month between November 2024 and last month.
'Ukrainian forces have conducted localised counterattacks in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions in recent weeks, regaining lost positions in these areas,' the think-tank wrote on Sunday in its latest battlefield update.
Since the beginning of the war, drones have been the defining weapon of the conflict. At first, commercial quadcopter drones were used to gather battlefield intelligence, but as Kyiv closed the gap in long-range firepower between Russia, they adapted the drones to carry munitions.
Last month, Ukraine's 59th Assault Brigade claimed in a social media post that 85 per cent of the losses inflicted by its men were with unmanned systems. Using drones alongside traditional long-range systems, such as Western-supplied artillery howitzers, has helped Ukraine effectively strike Russian forces within a 30km range.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and one of the most trusted war analysts, recently wrote: 'Drones are responsible for over 60 per cent of the daily Russian Federation casualties at this point, and are the principal means of stopping attacks in combination with mining, and traditional artillery.'
Mr Barros said Ukraine's drone attacks have at times destroyed enemy vehicles up to 10 km from the 'zero line', leading to some Russian soldiers resorting to advancing on foot.
Despite its advances slowing, Russia continues to grind forward as it seeks to capture as much of Ukrainian territory ahead of any peace negotiations. Vladimir Putin continues to pour resources into his armed forces for his ultimate goal of seizing the entire country – a prize Western officials insist he has not given up on.
He recently signed a decree to mobilise 160,000 more troops, Russia's highest number of conscripts in 14 years. But he is not expected to be able to breach Ukraine's defences due to the heavy losses sustained by his forces.
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