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Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
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Oil price structure narrows, premiums fall as supplies rise, summer demand ends
By Florence Tan, Georgina McCartney and Robert Harvey SINGAPORE/HOUSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -Premiums for prompt benchmark oil prices globally are falling compared with those in future months on rising output from the Middle East, Latin America and Europe, just as peak summer demand ends, traders and analysts said on Thursday. Easing concerns that the U.S. could impose more sanctions on Russia and further disrupt oil supplies are also weighing on oil prices, they said. The six-month time spreads for Brent futures, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures and Middle East marker Dubai have narrowed by more than $1 a barrel in backwardation since the start of the month. Backwardation refers to a market structure where prompt prices are higher than those in future months, indicating tight supply. A narrowing of the structure indicates a market view that supplies are expected to rise. "Brent and Dubai time spreads are softening mainly on expectations of incremental OPEC+ supply from September and easing fears of Russian disruption after recent steady flows via both Baltic and Black Sea," said Shohruh Zukhritdinov, a Dubai-based oil trader. "U.S. crude supply remains stable, but refinery runs will gradually decline into the shoulder season, easing prompt tightness," he said. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday to strike a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. Citi analysts said Brent could land in the low-$60s per barrel area, if there is progress towards a U.S.-Russia deal. RISING SUPPLY, END OF SUMMER Traders are bracing for more supplies after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to increase September output, just as non-OPEC producers such as Guyana, Brazil and Norway launched new production. Peak oil demand during the Northern Hemisphere summer is also ending, cooling red-hot diesel margins in Europe and reducing the burning of crude for power in Saudi Arabia, the sources said. "We saw a lot of selling in the window, with expectation around crude demand revised down as refinery margins weaken as gasoil/diesel cracks unravel," said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group, referring to physical trade in the North Sea market. "Now that seasonal demand is going to unwind, and we cannot be sure that China will keep up elevated imports (for stockpiling), so where does the extra Saudi barrels go?" Meanwhile, spot premiums for Middle East benchmarks Dubai and Oman hovered at their lowest in more than a month for October-loading supply. [CRU/M] Still, Dubai is relatively stronger than Brent, keeping the price spread between the benchmarks - known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps - narrow and allowing Atlantic Basin supply to head to Asia. Asian refiners have already snapped up millions of barrels of oil from the United States, Africa and Europe for delivery in September and October. Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said there is still uncertainty over Russian supply with the world's third-largest oil importer India buying spot cargoes to replace Russian oil in recent weeks. "Some (Russian) Urals will go to China but the story is not over yet and there is still some tail risk over what happens to Russian (oil) that cannot clear which makes the EFS trade short term even trickier than normal," he said. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
14-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil price structure narrows, premiums fall as supplies rise, summer demand ends
By Florence Tan, Georgina McCartney and Robert Harvey SINGAPORE/HOUSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -Premiums for prompt benchmark oil prices globally are falling compared with those in future months on rising output from the Middle East, Latin America and Europe, just as peak summer demand ends, traders and analysts said on Thursday. Easing concerns that the U.S. could impose more sanctions on Russia and further disrupt oil supplies are also weighing on oil prices, they said. The six-month time spreads for Brent futures, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures and Middle East marker Dubai have narrowed by more than $1 a barrel in backwardation since the start of the month. Backwardation refers to a market structure where prompt prices are higher than those in future months, indicating tight supply. A narrowing of the structure indicates a market view that supplies are expected to rise. "Brent and Dubai time spreads are softening mainly on expectations of incremental OPEC+ supply from September and easing fears of Russian disruption after recent steady flows via both Baltic and Black Sea," said Shohruh Zukhritdinov, a Dubai-based oil trader. "U.S. crude supply remains stable, but refinery runs will gradually decline into the shoulder season, easing prompt tightness," he said. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday to strike a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. Citi analysts said Brent could land in the low-$60s per barrel area, if there is progress towards a U.S.-Russia deal. RISING SUPPLY, END OF SUMMER Traders are bracing for more supplies after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to increase September output, just as non-OPEC producers such as Guyana, Brazil and Norway launched new production. Peak oil demand during the Northern Hemisphere summer is also ending, cooling red-hot diesel margins in Europe and reducing the burning of crude for power in Saudi Arabia, the sources said. "We saw a lot of selling in the window, with expectation around crude demand revised down as refinery margins weaken as gasoil/diesel cracks unravel," said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group, referring to physical trade in the North Sea market. "Now that seasonal demand is going to unwind, and we cannot be sure that China will keep up elevated imports (for stockpiling), so where does the extra Saudi barrels go?" Meanwhile, spot premiums for Middle East benchmarks Dubai and Oman hovered at their lowest in more than a month for October-loading supply. [CRU/M] Still, Dubai is relatively stronger than Brent, keeping the price spread between the benchmarks - known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps - narrow and allowing Atlantic Basin supply to head to Asia. Asian refiners have already snapped up millions of barrels of oil from the United States, Africa and Europe for delivery in September and October. Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said there is still uncertainty over Russian supply with the world's third-largest oil importer India buying spot cargoes to replace Russian oil in recent weeks. "Some (Russian) Urals will go to China but the story is not over yet and there is still some tail risk over what happens to Russian (oil) that cannot clear which makes the EFS trade short term even trickier than normal," he said.
Yahoo
14-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil price structure narrows, premiums fall as supplies rise, summer demand ends
By Florence Tan, Georgina McCartney and Robert Harvey SINGAPORE/HOUSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -Premiums for prompt benchmark oil prices globally are falling compared with those in future months on rising output from the Middle East, Latin America and Europe, just as peak summer demand ends, traders and analysts said on Thursday. Easing concerns that the U.S. could impose more sanctions on Russia and further disrupt oil supplies are also weighing on oil prices, they said. The six-month time spreads for Brent futures, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures and Middle East marker Dubai have narrowed by more than $1 a barrel in backwardation since the start of the month. Backwardation refers to a market structure where prompt prices are higher than those in future months, indicating tight supply. A narrowing of the structure indicates a market view that supplies are expected to rise. "Brent and Dubai time spreads are softening mainly on expectations of incremental OPEC+ supply from September and easing fears of Russian disruption after recent steady flows via both Baltic and Black Sea," said Shohruh Zukhritdinov, a Dubai-based oil trader. "U.S. crude supply remains stable, but refinery runs will gradually decline into the shoulder season, easing prompt tightness," he said. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday to strike a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. Citi analysts said Brent could land in the low-$60s per barrel area, if there is progress towards a U.S.-Russia deal. RISING SUPPLY, END OF SUMMER Traders are bracing for more supplies after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to increase September output, just as non-OPEC producers such as Guyana, Brazil and Norway launched new production. Peak oil demand during the Northern Hemisphere summer is also ending, cooling red-hot diesel margins in Europe and reducing the burning of crude for power in Saudi Arabia, the sources said. "We saw a lot of selling in the window, with expectation around crude demand revised down as refinery margins weaken as gasoil/diesel cracks unravel," said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group, referring to physical trade in the North Sea market. "Now that seasonal demand is going to unwind, and we cannot be sure that China will keep up elevated imports (for stockpiling), so where does the extra Saudi barrels go?" Meanwhile, spot premiums for Middle East benchmarks Dubai and Oman hovered at their lowest in more than a month for October-loading supply. [CRU/M] Still, Dubai is relatively stronger than Brent, keeping the price spread between the benchmarks - known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps - narrow and allowing Atlantic Basin supply to head to Asia. Asian refiners have already snapped up millions of barrels of oil from the United States, Africa and Europe for delivery in September and October. Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said there is still uncertainty over Russian supply with the world's third-largest oil importer India buying spot cargoes to replace Russian oil in recent weeks. "Some (Russian) Urals will go to China but the story is not over yet and there is still some tail risk over what happens to Russian (oil) that cannot clear which makes the EFS trade short term even trickier than normal," he said.
Yahoo
05-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-Sliding US rig count outpaces efficiency gains, threatening onshore oil output
By Georgina McCartney HOUSTON (Reuters) -The falling number of oil and gas rigs deployed across the United States is reaching a level that would indicate onshore crude output from the world's top producer could fall in early 2026. U.S. energy companies are producing record amounts of oil, much of it from onshore shale fields. New techniques and technology, like longer lateral wells, automation and more powerful equipment, have driven productivity gains across the industry that have allowed oil companies to pump more with fewer rigs and less capital. But the number of rigs working in U.S. shale fields has almost fallen so low - and is projected to keep falling - that those improvements will not be enough to keep onshore U.S. production rising, or even steady in some basins, analysts say. The anticipated decline comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to raise oil and gas output, and as OPEC+ lifts its production targets in an attempt to take back market share from the U.S. and other rival producers. In April 2019, the last time over 1,000 rigs were consistently deployed across the U.S., oil output stood at 12.14 million barrels per day (bpd). Today, there are just 540 rigs in operation, while output has jumped to some 13.5 million bpd. Those close to the industry say that balance is fast approaching a tipping point, with analysts forecasting the rig count to fall further and U.S. onshore production to subsequently decline next year and into 2027. Lower 48 oil output is expected to fall by 200,000 bpd next year, followed by a further decline of 130,000 bpd in 2027, as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices, Wood Mackenzie analysts said. At the current rig count of 540, energy analytics firm, Novi Labs forecasts a 400,000 bpd drop in lower 48 production by the end of next year, with losses upwards of 200,000 bpd within the first few months of 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration in July also said it expects recent declines in rig counts and well completions to continue, pointing to lower crude prices. ALL EYES ON THE PERMIAN The recent decline in oil prices has prompted companies to shed rigs at an elevated rate. In the Permian basin - the largest U.S. oil field, spanning from Texas to New Mexico - some 24 rigs were dropped over a ten-week period beginning in May, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. During that period, prices plunged as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accelerated plans to increase output. Companies have been using newer, more efficient oil rigs, with improvements like autonomous drilling capabilities, more powerful horsepower, and technology that enables them to move without being taken down and rebuilt. "Right now virtually all operating rigs are the most efficient and highly upgraded rigs available. Drillers saw big efficiency gains because they upgraded to a bigger rig but there are no bigger rigs left to upgrade to," said Paul Mosvold, president and COO of Scandrill, whose company has seven rigs in the Haynesville and four in the Permian. "Now it is incremental and tweaking, whereas before it was a wholesale upgrade. Those things aren't going to make the level of efficiency gains we've seen in the last few years," Mosvold added. Energy consultancies have similar estimates for the number of rigs needed to keep production steady in the Permian Basin, ranging between 240 and 260. The Permian rig count last fell by one in the week to August 1, to 259, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes. "We have seen a 25% improvement over the last few years in rig efficiency, but the rig count has fallen over 30% over that same period. Put simply, the rig count declines have begun to outpace drilling efficiency gains," said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs. "This is a recent development," he added. Market intelligence firm Energy Aspects expects the Permian rig count to continue falling, slipping below its own modeled 255 threshold for steady production, early next year. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees that basin's rig count falling to 245 in early 2026 as prices fall due to higher OPEC+ output. EFFICIENCY GAINS AND WELL PRODUCTIVITY The Permian has been at the heart of the U.S. shale revolution, propelling the country to the top spot in the league of global oil producers. Output there is expected to reach 6.58 million bpd this month, more than triple what it produced a decade ago in August 2015, according to the EIA. In the Permian's Midland basin, oil companies have raised the number of feet drilled per month per rig, or drilling efficiency, by 25% since the first quarter of 2023, according to Novi Labs. In 2024 around 40% of laterals in Midland were over 2.5 miles long, compared with 15% in 2021. Despite improvements to drilling technologies, oil wells in the Permian basin are becoming less productive as operators have drilled through a lot of the best rock. Those less productive wells cost more to drill and are producing more unwanted byproducts such as gas and water, and less oil. The Permian's Delaware and Midland sub-basins have seen oil per foot drilled fall 8% so far in 2025 compared with last year's average, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a July note. "If the rig count drops don't turn around soon, we're going to see U.S. production declines well into 2026, including in the Permian basin," said Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones. He anticipates Permian production, which currently stands at 6.55 million bpd, to fall by 150,000 bpd to 6.25 million bpd in 2026, due to fewer rigs and completions as well as a degradation in well productivity. Declines in oil production as a result of a falling rig count will take six to nine months to show, due to the time it takes to drill and complete wells, analysts said. Novi Labs expects Permian production will fall slightly by the end of the year, before dipping into the sub-6.5 million bpd range in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026 at 6.55 million bpd. The EIA projects output to average 6.53 million bpd in 2025, before edging down to 6.5 million bpd in 2026. "In 2020, when the rig count fell, operators drilled the best rock they were ever going to have. That high-quality inventory doesn't exist in that quantity anymore, and operators won't be able to do that again to the same degree," said Novi Labs' Myers. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil futures, options trade at record levels in Q2 as investors navigate volatility
By Georgina McCartney HOUSTON (Reuters) -Total oil futures and options lots traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) hit record highs in the second quarter, as U.S. President Donald Trump waged a trade war and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalated. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Significant volatility in the second quarter had global benchmark Brent crude futures dropping to a four-year low of $60.23 a barrel on May 5 and then surging to $78.85 on June 19, the highest since January, according to data from LSEG. CONTEXT On April 2, Trump unveiled sweeping import tariffs. Retaliatory measures by China stoked recession worries and sparked a sell-off on April 4. In May, producer group OPEC+ expedited output hikes, boosting global supply and driving Brent prices down by May 5 to their lowest since February 2021. Then, the war between Israel and Iran kept investors on edge and pushed Brent to a six-month high on June 19. BY THE NUMBERS Investors traded a total of 219,323,730 of oil futures and options to June from April, up from the previous record of 181,520,640 lots in the first quarter 2025. The new record included 99,541,065 lots of Brent futures and 20,333,728 lots of Brent options. Traders also moved 30,056,174 lots of West Texas Intermediate (Cushing) futures and options, and 3,211,194 lots of Midland WTI (HOU) Futures. KEY QUOTE "I think hedging activity played a role, when prices dropped to $60 a barrel in Brent, oil consumers such as airlines started to hedge, and when prices spiked in mid-June, oil producing companies decided to hedge," said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. "At the same time, investors looked to either hold growth concerns positions in oil (short) or inflation concerns positions in oil (long) due to the tariffs," Staunovo added.
