Latest news with #GerDoyle
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Will Trump's tariffs affect U.S. jobs?
On again, off again: the spectre of the potential economic fallout of tariffs has worried Americans since President Trump's inaugural address, when he proposed to 'tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens'. Global tariffs were announced, amended or rescinded across February and March, with a number going into effect, for example, new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports went into effect mid-March. Most recently, the President has rowed back on a package of steep tariffs he intended to levy on dozens of the country's trading partners. Executive Director, ROA, Washington Director of Policy – North America, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Washington D.C. or New York City Senior Campaigner (17-Month Fixed Term), Amnesty International USA, New York City / Washington D.C. Legislative Director, Council of Large Public Housing Authorities, Washington D.C. Director of Government Affairs, Blueprint Biosecurity, Washington D.C. On April 9th, he said that nearly all of his reciprocal tariffs would be paused for 90 days. Additionally, he announced that he may consider exempting some U.S. companies altogether. That was welcome news, but regardless, the period of uncertainty that has been fostered by tariff announcements has sent shockwaves through the U.S. and wider global economies. Tariff announcements triggered the worst two-day loss in United States stock market history. Over one two-day period alone, $6.6 trillion in value was wiped out. Additionally, the S&P 500, an index tracking the performance of the largest publicly-traded companies in the U.S, suffered its biggest loss since its creation in the 1950s. Reuters says that it has been 'the most intense episode of financial market volatility since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.' Even as April 9th's reversal brought sighs of relief, and lacklustre markets quickly rallied, fears of a recession, and job losses are still top of mind. LinkedIn news says worker confidence is lower than it was in spring of 2020, while data from the Philly Fed's January 2025 Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations (LIFE) Survey shows that 30 percent of workers said they were concerned about their employer's ability to stay in business. Younger and older workers are more likely to be concerned. Employees aged 18 to 35, and those aged 56 to 65 are more worried about losing their jobs. The most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report was released at the start of April. It has some better news in that it indicates that total nonfarm payroll rose by 228,000 in March. However, economists say the picture doesn't look quite as positive when viewed up close. For one, healthcare and social assistance accounted for a large portion of total jobs; 34 percent of March's numbers. 'At the surface level, it seems like a stable and resilient labor market. However, a closer examination of the data reveals that employers are exercising caution across nearly all sectors,' says Ger Doyle, the U.S. country manager at ManpowerGroup. Cory Stahle, who is an economist at Indeed's Hiring Lab, also offered sobering analysis in a statement. 'The residual confidence and optimism that helped buoy the labor market through the first quarter reversed virtually overnight after this week's announcements, and there is likely no going back,' he said. 'The velocity with which these policy changes are now happening is so fast that many employers will find it challenging to find the stability needed to maintain business as usual.' Stahle also says that 'prime-age labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio both appear to have reached a ceiling, suggesting labor supply issues could soon become a challenge for the market.' The fact is that the effects of tariffs don't fall equally on all households and demographics. A 2018 study by the U.S. The International Trade Commission found that tariffs disproportionately fall on both low-income groups and women. This is because less well-off consumers tend to spend a bigger portion of their income on necessary goods. As a result, tariffs act almost as an income tax on these cohorts. Women, too, may bear a disproportionate burden of the effects of tariffs. In particular, single-parent families are 90 percent more likely to be headed by females than males. These families also tend to spend about 40 percent of their income buying goods, which increases their exposure to the effects of tariffs. Uncertainty is not good for the labor market. It's likely that companies will bed-in until this period of fluctuation ends, and job creation will stall. Right now, Manpower's Ger Doyle notes that the labor market may be 'locked in place'. He also pointed out that while U.S. business and organizations are focused on preserving the status quo, this could all change. And that, he said, could put layoffs back on the agenda. Ready to buck the trend and get your job search underway? Browse thousands of jobs on The Hill Job Board Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
11-04-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Will Trump's tariffs affect U.S. jobs?
On again, off again: the spectre of the potential economic fallout of tariffs has worried Americans since President Trump's inaugural address, when he proposed to 'tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens'. Global tariffs were announced, amended or rescinded across February and March, with a number going into effect, for example, new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports went into effect mid-March. Most recently, the President has rowed back on a package of steep tariffs he intended to levy on dozens of the country's trading partners. 5 jobs hiring across the U.S. On April 9th, he said that nearly all of his reciprocal tariffs would be paused for 90 days. Additionally, he announced that he may consider exempting some U.S. companies altogether. That was welcome news, but regardless, the period of uncertainty that has been fostered by tariff announcements has sent shockwaves through the U.S. and wider global economies. Tariff announcements triggered the worst two-day loss in United States stock market history. Over one two-day period alone, $6.6 trillion in value was wiped out. Additionally, the S&P 500, an index tracking the performance of the largest publicly-traded companies in the U.S, suffered its biggest loss since its creation in the 1950s. Reuters says that it has been 'the most intense episode of financial market volatility since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.' Even as April 9th's reversal brought sighs of relief, and lacklustre markets quickly rallied, fears of a recession, and job losses are still top of mind. Job fears growing LinkedIn news says worker confidence is lower than it was in spring of 2020, while data from the Philly Fed 's January 2025 Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations (LIFE) Survey shows that 30 percent of workers said they were concerned about their employer's ability to stay in business. Younger and older workers are more likely to be concerned. Employees aged 18 to 35, and those aged 56 to 65 are more worried about losing their jobs. The most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report was released at the start of April. It has some better news in that it indicates that total nonfarm payroll rose by 228,000 in March. However, economists say the picture doesn't look quite as positive when viewed up close. For one, healthcare and social assistance accounted for a large portion of total jobs; 34 percent of March's numbers. 'At the surface level, it seems like a stable and resilient labor market. However, a closer examination of the data reveals that employers are exercising caution across nearly all sectors,' says Ger Doyle, the U.S. country manager at ManpowerGroup. Cory Stahle, who is an economist at Indeed's Hiring Lab, also offered sobering analysis in a statement. 'The residual confidence and optimism that helped buoy the labor market through the first quarter reversed virtually overnight after this week's announcements, and there is likely no going back,' he said. 'The velocity with which these policy changes are now happening is so fast that many employers will find it challenging to find the stability needed to maintain business as usual.' Stahle also says that 'prime-age labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio both appear to have reached a ceiling, suggesting labor supply issues could soon become a challenge for the market.' Effects hitting home The fact is that the effects of tariffs don't fall equally on all households and demographics. A 2018 study by the U.S. The International Trade Commission found that tariffs disproportionately fall on both low-income groups and women. This is because less well-off consumers tend to spend a bigger portion of their income on necessary goods. As a result, tariffs act almost as an income tax on these cohorts. Women, too, may bear a disproportionate burden of the effects of tariffs. In particular, single-parent families are 90 percent more likely to be headed by females than males. These families also tend to spend about 40 percent of their income buying goods, which increases their exposure to the effects of tariffs. Period of uncertainty Uncertainty is not good for the labor market. It's likely that companies will bed-in until this period of fluctuation ends, and job creation will stall. Right now, Manpower's Ger Doyle notes that the labor market may be 'locked in place'. He also pointed out that while U.S. business and organizations are focused on preserving the status quo, this could all change. And that, he said, could put layoffs back on the agenda.
USA Today
09-03-2025
- Business
- USA Today
Stocks falter over February jobs report. Did DOGE impact hiring?
Stocks falter over February jobs report. Did DOGE impact hiring? Show Caption Hide Caption Which federal workers are out of a job? The Trump administration has cut thousands of federal roles across various agencies, including the CDC and Forest Service. Here's who's been impacted. Employers added 151,000 jobs in February, a solid but unspectacular number, the Labor Department reported Friday, providing a snapshot of a labor market that has recovered from January's bitter cold and has not yet felt the full brunt of the Department of Government Efficiency. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. Economists had forecast employers would add 160,000 to 170,000 jobs in February, up from 125,000 in January, signaling a strong month of gains. Labor officials had first reported 143,000 new jobs in January, but on Friday, they revised that figure downward. Forecasts had suggested the unemployment rate would remain at 4%, a historically low figure. "Today's jobs report reflects a market trying to balance itself as consumer confidence falls and economic uncertainty persists," said Ger Doyle, U.S. country manager at ManpowerGroup. "It's a tense time, and many (employers) are still waiting to see how things unfold before making their next move.' Stocks opened higher Friday morning, then drifted downward, as investors digested an employment report that had fallen short of expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.8% at midday. The S&P 500 was down 1%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 1.4%. Those numbers left the market with little to celebrate at the end of a brutal week on Wall Street. "February's weak job growth is particularly disappointing since it came after the bad weather and wildfires of January cleared," said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. "Ordinarily, the job market bounces back quickly from weather or natural disasters, but not this time." Employment inched up in February in health care, transportation and financial activities, among other sectors. Federal employment declined by 10,000, reflecting the first cuts by the federal Department of Government Efficiency under the new Trump administration. Speaking in the Oval Office on Friday, President Donald Trump rolled out his own job numbers and cited two overarching goals for his administration: to favor private sector jobs over government positions, and to prioritize "native-born Americans" over immigrants. The February report captures an economy in transition. It comes too soon to measure most of the massive federal job cuts unleashed by Trump and adviser Elon Musk. The survey period centers on the week of Feb. 12, before many of those cuts were announced. Instead, the job numbers give a glimpse 'of the labor market after two full weeks of the Trump administration, and likely serve as a continued reminder that President Trump inherited a solid labor market,' said Daniel Hornung, former deputy director of the National Economic Council, speaking before the report's release. Given the turbulence of recent weeks, analysts said, any positive job tidings are welcome news. 'A steady-as-she-goes job market would be akin to a win in these uncertain times,' said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. 'Hiring has recently been slowing, and consumers are increasingly pressured by high prices and restrictive interest rates, and worry is building, as seen in measures of consumer confidence.' Consumer confidence, measured by the nonprofit Conference Board, registered its largest monthly decline since 2021 in February. Jobs report comes at an uncertain time for employers Businesses are struggling to plan for the future, and they may be delaying investment and hiring plans out of uncertainty about Trump's unpredictable trade policies, said Kevin Rinz, senior fellow and research advisor at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. More broadly, Rinz said, 'uncertainty driven by recent White House policies and the associated theatrics is creating economic headwinds.' The February jobs report delivered a final monthly read on the labor market before the newest wave of tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China, enacted on Tuesday (and, in some cases, swiftly dialed back). Many economists expect the import taxes to seed inflation, and some envision layoffs. 'The economy has already gotten off to a poor start this year because of an unusually cold January, LA wildfires and surge in policy uncertainty,' said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. 'The tariffs will likely only fan concerns that the poor start to the year could morph into something worse.' U.S. employers in January added 143,000 jobs. The January report was taken in the week of Jan. 12 and reflected labor-market performance before Trump took office, on Jan. 20. Still, payroll gains for the previous two months were revised up by 100,000. Other job reports paint a bleaker picture of the economy Another jobs report, released Thursday by the career consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, painted a bleaker picture. U.S. employers announced 172,000 job cuts in the full month of February, the consultancy reported, the highest total for that month since 2009 when the nation was mired in the Great Recession. The February figure is more than double the number of job cuts announced in February 2024. The federal government announced 62,000 job cuts across 17 agencies in February, Challenger reported. By contrast, the feds announced 151 job cuts in the first two months of 2024. 'Private companies announced plans to shed thousands of jobs last month, particularly in retail and technology,' said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. 'With the impact of the Department of Government Efficiency actions, as well as canceled government contracts, fear of trade wars, and bankruptcies, job cuts soared in February.' Another analysis, released Wednesday, showed sluggish job creation in the private sector. Private firms added 77,000 workers in February, down from 186,000 in January, according to ADP, a human resources management company. 'Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,' said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. 'Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.' (This story was updated to add new information.)
