Will Trump's tariffs affect U.S. jobs?

The Hill

11-04-2025

On again, off again: the spectre of the potential economic fallout of tariffs has worried Americans since President Trump's inaugural address, when he proposed to 'tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens'.
Global tariffs were announced, amended or rescinded across February and March, with a number going into effect, for example, new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports went into effect mid-March.
Most recently, the President has rowed back on a package of steep tariffs he intended to levy on dozens of the country's trading partners.
5 jobs hiring across the U.S.
On April 9th, he said that nearly all of his reciprocal tariffs would be paused for 90 days. Additionally, he announced that he may consider exempting some U.S. companies altogether.
That was welcome news, but regardless, the period of uncertainty that has been fostered by tariff announcements has sent shockwaves through the U.S. and wider global economies.
Tariff announcements triggered the worst two-day loss in United States stock market history. Over one two-day period alone, $6.6 trillion in value was wiped out.
Additionally, the S&P 500, an index tracking the performance of the largest publicly-traded companies in the U.S, suffered its biggest loss since its creation in the 1950s.
Reuters says that it has been 'the most intense episode of financial market volatility since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.'
Even as April 9th's reversal brought sighs of relief, and lacklustre markets quickly rallied, fears of a recession, and job losses are still top of mind.
Job fears growing
LinkedIn news says worker confidence is lower than it was in spring of 2020, while data from the Philly Fed 's January 2025 Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations (LIFE) Survey shows that 30 percent of workers said they were concerned about their employer's ability to stay in business.
Younger and older workers are more likely to be concerned. Employees aged 18 to 35, and those aged 56 to 65 are more worried about losing their jobs.
The most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report was released at the start of April. It has some better news in that it indicates that total nonfarm payroll rose by 228,000 in March.
However, economists say the picture doesn't look quite as positive when viewed up close. For one, healthcare and social assistance accounted for a large portion of total jobs; 34 percent of March's numbers.
'At the surface level, it seems like a stable and resilient labor market. However, a closer examination of the data reveals that employers are exercising caution across nearly all sectors,' says Ger Doyle, the U.S. country manager at ManpowerGroup.
Cory Stahle, who is an economist at Indeed's Hiring Lab, also offered sobering analysis in a statement.
'The residual confidence and optimism that helped buoy the labor market through the first quarter reversed virtually overnight after this week's announcements, and there is likely no going back,' he said.
'The velocity with which these policy changes are now happening is so fast that many employers will find it challenging to find the stability needed to maintain business as usual.'
Stahle also says that 'prime-age labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio both appear to have reached a ceiling, suggesting labor supply issues could soon become a challenge for the market.'
Effects hitting home
The fact is that the effects of tariffs don't fall equally on all households and demographics.
A 2018 study by the U.S. The International Trade Commission found that tariffs disproportionately fall on both low-income groups and women.
This is because less well-off consumers tend to spend a bigger portion of their income on necessary goods. As a result, tariffs act almost as an income tax on these cohorts.
Women, too, may bear a disproportionate burden of the effects of tariffs. In particular, single-parent families are 90 percent more likely to be headed by females than males. These families also tend to spend about 40 percent of their income buying goods, which increases their exposure to the effects of tariffs.
Period of uncertainty
Uncertainty is not good for the labor market. It's likely that companies will bed-in until this period of fluctuation ends, and job creation will stall.
Right now, Manpower's Ger Doyle notes that the labor market may be 'locked in place'. He also pointed out that while U.S. business and organizations are focused on preserving the status quo, this could all change. And that, he said, could put layoffs back on the agenda.