5 days ago
The president who wasn't there
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In today's edition: VDL is safe, and long gone
Race to run DG COMP
Budget digest
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Ursula von der Leyen is so chilled about today's motion of censure against her Commission that she's not even here. Rather than wait for a vote that will fail to topple her, von der Leyen left Strasbourg last night for the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome where she will also meet US Senator Lindsey Graham, whose tough sanctions bill against Russia is advancing through Congress.
But that wasn't before making two concessions to the Socialists in Parliament, who had been threatening to abstain from today's midday vote. Abstaining would not bring down the Commission but could expose how little support there is for von der Leyen and the EPP in the centre of the political spectrum, and feed a narrative that the German Christian Democrat is losing her grip on the Parliament.
Last night, after negotiating directly with von der Leyen, top Socialist MEP Iratxe García said she had got a cast-iron guarantee from the Commission that the European Social Fund+ – an instrument that funds things like job training and social inclusion schemes, and is projected to be worth around €150 billion over the next seven years – will be retained in the next EU budget. Until now, the Commission had been toying with the idea of simply earmarking money as societally friendly, an idea that was a non-starter for the centre-left, according to a Socialist official.
Renew Europe will also vote down the motion rather than abstaining, but said in a press release last night that the next key moment will be von der Leyen's annual State of the Union address in September. 'It must mark a shift in leadership style – from unilateralism to partnership,' the liberals said.
Fading Support for Ukraine
Ukraine opens a high stakes Recovery Conference in Rome today, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy aiming to secure energy deals and defence investment. But Western allies admit options are dwindling, and a €100 billion EU support plan remains blocked by Hungary.
A separate summit on security guarantees, chaired by France and the UK today, is also expected to deliver little. The resulting picture, a senior NATO official told Alexandra Brzozowski, is bleak. 'Ukraine continues to show a lot of innovative spirit,' they said. 'But we are in for a stressful and difficult summer.'
Parliament backs money laundering watchlist
On Wednesday, the European Parliament approved an updated list of high-risk third countries for money laundering and terrorist financing, choosing not to oppose the European Commission's proposal. The revised list removes the UAE, Barbados, Gibraltar, Jamaica, Panama, the Philippines, Senegal, and Uganda.
The move marks a shift from last year, when MEPs strongly opposed the Commission's bid to delist Gibraltar, Panama, and the UAE, citing evidence that the countries had failed to curb sanctions circumvention, particularly in relation to Russia.
The competition to lead DG COMP
The European Commission's powerful competition authority – responsible for slapping Google and Apple with billion-euro fines, probing Big Oil, and reining in corporate power across the EU – is facing a leadership vacuum. Oliver Guersent, the French civil servant who has led DG Competition since 2020, will step down on 31 July, setting off a scramble for one of the EU's most politically sensitive posts.
Names like Anthony Whelan – acting economics advisor in von der Leyen's cabinet – and DG Energy chief Ditte Juul Jørgensen are being floated in Brussels corridors, as first reported by the FT. Whelan is seen as almost too qualified for the job. 'The president won't let him go that easily,' one senior EU official told Euractiv. Jørgensen, a former chief of staff to Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, brings the advantage of coming from a smaller member state – a factor that would ease tensions around nationality balance and reduce friction with major capitals.
A Frenchman, Guersent's exit also raises questions about the mix of nationalities at the top of the Commission. That also weakens the case for another French contender, Céline Gauer, who runs the Commission's Reform and Investment Task Force. She is widely seen as highly competent, having negotiated the recovery plans with EU capitals.
Still, there are signs that the Commission will go for a simpler option: a DG-level reshuffle rather than promoting someone still finding their feet. In that regard, Linsey McCallum is seen as a strong contender. With a proven track record as deputy director-general for antitrust, she's already navigating the most politically charged files in the building. 'She's extremely respected, has the courage to act when needed, and knows how to be political while remaining deeply respectful,' an antitrust economist noted.
MFF digest
Less than a week before the Commission presents the bulk of its 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework, virtually all parts of the proposal have been leaked.
Our chief diplomatic correspondent Alexandra Brzozowski writes that the Commission will propose combining different external action programmes and funds into a single 'Global Europe Fund', divided between six regions. It will suggest, for the first time in a budget proposal, to directly link the EU's foreign aid to recipient countries' efforts in preventing migration into the bloc.
Another key element of the EU executive's proposal will be a Ukraine fund to be incorporated into the EU budget, to guarantee long-term financing for Kyiv from 2028 to 2034. Likelihood of success on a scale from 1 to Hungary: Unlikely. Read more here.
Chief defence correspondent Aurélie Pugnet writes that defence start-ups are to get a specific fund named "DARPA" under the Horizon Europe research programme. DARPA is the name of the US Pentagon's key agency channelling billions of dollars in defence innovation, which does not have an equivalent at EU level. A European DARPA (mimicking the US agency which invests in defence innovation) could help complete the EU defence fund currently marked at €8 billion.
Euractiv's Claudie Moreau writes that the Commission is preparing to merge the Creative Europe and Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values (CERV) funding programmes. The new proposal, obtained by Euractiv, would fund culture, media, audiovisual services, and projects aimed at supporting EU values. This is a hit for cultural industries that rely heavily on Creative Europe and feared combining it with other funding objectives may dilute their own share of the EU budget. Read more.
Meanwhile, Euractiv's Jacob Wulff Wold writes that there are few details so far on the two thirds of the budget reserved for farmers and the regions. The latter have been promised a "dedicated" budget with a preserved two pillar structure of direct farmer support and rural development funds.
A Monday German parliamentary cable, seen by Euractiv, suggests only the direct payments will be truly ring-fenced within the national partnerships, with the rest of CAP and cohesion subject to 'horizontal flexibility'. But the fight may last until the final whistle on Wednesday. Around the bloc
GERMANY | German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged trouble with France over the joint next-generation fighter jet project on Wednesday, but expressed confidence that the aircraft remains needed and will get back on track. Read more.
FRANCE | The European Court of Human Rights on Wednesday rejected French far-right leader Marine Le Pen's request to suspend a Paris Criminal Court ruling that bars her from holding public office. The court found that "no imminent risk of irreparable harm to a right protected by the European Convention on Human Rights or its protocols has been established".
ITALY | Italy's Tribunal of Ministers is weighing criminal charges against Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and top officials over the government's controversial release of a Libyan general wanted by the International Criminal Court. Read more.
SPAIN | Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez ruled out resignation on Wednesday, unveiling a sweeping anti-graft strategy as his Socialist party faces mounting scrutiny over corruption allegations. Read more.
CZECHIA | Czech President Petr Pavel will present a plan for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction at Thursday's international recovery conference in Rome. The plan focuses on stabilising and modernising Ukraine's economy, attracting investment, facilitating the return of refugees, and accelerating Ukraine's EU accession path. Read more. Also on Euractiv
