Latest news with #GermanInstituteforInternationalandSecurityAffairs
DW
15 hours ago
- Politics
- DW
Israel-Iran conflict: Where do Trump and the US stand? – DW – 06/13/2025
US President Donald Trump claims his country was not involved with Israel's attacks on Iran. At the same time, he threatens that if Tehran doesn't reach a nuclear deal with the US, attacks on Iran "will only get worse." The US government's political line after Israel's attack on Iran is clear: Washington had no part in it. "Israel took unilateral action against Iran," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement shared by the White House. "We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense … Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel." The White House social media team posted the statement on social media platform X roughly an hour after the start of Israel's attacks on Iran early Friday morning. Later, on Friday evening, Iran launched retaliatory attacks on Israel. Before that, on Thursday, the US State Department posted a warning on X about the complex security situation in the Middle East: "We remind U.S. citizens in Israel and the broader region of the continued need for caution and encourage them to monitor the news for breaking developments." The US was informed about the attack in advance. But were they really not actively involved in any way? "Everything we know so far about the logistics, for example about the hidden drones in Iran, suggests that Israel carried out the attack alone," Sascha Lohmann, senior associate and part of the America regional research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said in an interview with DW. "But we cannot completely rule out the possibility that the US helped." The deployment of 200 military jets that flew to Iran and back for example raises the question of whether the US military provided support with air-to-air refueling, according to Lohmann. Iran's nuclear program under attack Israel's attacks early Friday morning were mainly directed against military facilities and sites involved in Iran's nuclear program, such as the Natanz nuclear facility, where uranium is enriched, among other things. In addition to several leading figures in the Iranian military, at least six scientists and researchers working on Iran's nuclear program were killed. Since April 2025, Tehran and Washington had been holding talks to reach an agreement to replace the old nuclear deal with Iran, from which the US withdrew during Trump's first term in 2018. After Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Trump was quoted by Fox News reporter Bret Baier as saying that "Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb." Expert: Israel caught Iran by surprise To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video "We hope to get back to the negotiating table," Trump said according to the right-leaning TV channel. "We'll see." Trump: Attacks on Iran 'will only get worse!' Trump used much harsher language on his social media platform Truth Social. He wrote in a post that he had given Iran many chances to reach a nuclear deal with him. If that doesn't happen, Trump says he warned Iranian leadership that they're facing an attack that's much worse than anything they could imagine. "The United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world by far," Trump wrote. "Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come ― and they know how to use it." The Iranian hardliners who spoke out against a nuclear deal are "all DEAD now," Trump continued in his post, "and it will only get worse!" Meanwhile, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff warned that Iran is also capable of causing considerable damage in Israel. Further nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran unlikely The next meeting between the US and Iranian delegations on a possible new nuclear agreement was supposed to take place this Sunday in Oman, but Iran canceled it. It is also unclear how the talks will proceed in the long term. Ali Shamkhani, a close confidant and advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is said to be among those killed in Iran. According to German news magazine Spiegel, Shamkhani played an important role in the nuclear talks between the US and Iran. He is said to have been open to an agreement, but also warned that the government in Tehran could end its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and expel UN nuclear inspectors if Iran felt threatened. "As long as the conflict continues with its current intensity, it is difficult to imagine that the talks will continue," Lohmann said. This article was originally published in German
DW
16 hours ago
- Politics
- DW
Israel's attack on Iran: Where do Trump and the US stand? – DW – 06/13/2025
US President Donald Trump claims his country was not involved with Israel's attacks on Iran. At the same time, he threatens that if Tehran doesn't reach a nuclear deal with the US, attacks on Iran "will only get worse." The US government's political line after Israel's attack on Iran is clear: Washington had no part in it. "Israel took unilateral action against Iran," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement shared by the White House. "We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense … Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel." The White House social media team posted the statement on social media platform X roughly an hour after the start of Israel's attacks on Iran early Friday morning. Later, on Friday evening, Iran launched retaliatory attacks on Israel. Before that, on Thursday, the US State Department posted a warning on X about the complex security situation in the Middle East: "We remind U.S. citizens in Israel and the broader region of the continued need for caution and encourage them to monitor the news for breaking developments." The US was informed about the attack in advance. But were they really not actively involved in any way? "Everything we know so far about the logistics, for example about the hidden drones in Iran, suggests that Israel carried out the attack alone," Sascha Lohmann, senior associate and part of the America regional research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said in an interview with DW. "But we cannot completely rule out the possibility that the US helped." The deployment of 200 military jets that flew to Iran and back for example raises the question of whether the US military provided support with air-to-air refueling, according to Lohmann. Iran's nuclear program under attack Israel's attacks early Friday morning were mainly directed against military facilities and sites involved in Iran's nuclear program, such as the Natanz nuclear facility, where uranium is enriched, among other things. In addition to several leading figures in the Iranian military, at least six scientists and researchers working on Iran's nuclear program were killed. Since April 2025, Tehran and Washington had been holding talks to reach an agreement to replace the old nuclear deal with Iran, from which the US withdrew during Trump's first term in 2018. After Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Trump was quoted by Fox News reporter Bret Baier as saying that "Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb." Expert: Israel caught Iran by surprise To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video "We hope to get back to the negotiating table," Trump said according to the right-leaning TV channel. "We'll see." Trump: Attacks on Iran 'will only get worse!' Trump used much harsher language on his social media platform Truth Social. He wrote in a post that he had given Iran many chances to reach a nuclear deal with him. If that doesn't happen, Trump says he warned Iranian leadership that they're facing an attack that's much worse than anything they could imagine. "The United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world by far," Trump wrote. "Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come ― and they know how to use it." The Iranian hardliners who spoke out against a nuclear deal are "all DEAD now," Trump continued in his post, "and it will only get worse!" Meanwhile, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff warned that Iran is also capable of causing considerable damage in Israel. Further nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran unlikely The next meeting between the US and Iranian delegations on a possible new nuclear agreement was supposed to take place this Sunday in Oman, but Iran canceled it. It is also unclear how the talks will proceed in the long term. Ali Shamkhani, a close confidant and advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is said to be among those killed in Iran. According to German news magazine Spiegel, Shamkhani played an important role in the nuclear talks between the US and Iran. He is said to have been open to an agreement, but also warned that the government in Tehran could end its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and expel UN nuclear inspectors if Iran felt threatened. "As long as the conflict continues with its current intensity, it is difficult to imagine that the talks will continue," Lohmann said. This article was originally published in German
The Sun
a day ago
- Politics
- The Sun
Trump warns Israeli attack on Iran ‘could very well happen'
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump warned Thursday that Israel may soon strike Iran's nuclear sites, but urged the key US ally to hold off as he stressed his commitment to a diplomatic solution. Tensions have soared in the region in the last two days with Trump warning of a 'massive conflict' and drawing down US staff. Tehran meanwhile defiantly vowed to increase its output of enriched uranium -- a key sticking point in talks with Washington -- after being censured by the UN's atomic watchdog. 'I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen,' Trump told reporters at the White House when asked if an Israeli attack loomed. Trump said he believed a 'pretty good' deal on Iran's nuclear program was 'fairly close,' but said that an Israeli attack on its arch-foe could wreck the chances of an agreement. The US leader did not disclose the details of a conversation on Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but said: 'I don't want them going in, because I think it would blow it.' Trump quickly added: 'Might help it actually, but it also could blow it.' News outlet Axios reported that Trump had said the United States would not participate in any strikes. - US troops in crosshairs - Trump later appeared to want tensions dialed down in a post on social media, while insisting that Iran must 'give up hopes' of developing a nuclear weapon. 'We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue! My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran,' Trump said on his Truth Social network. Tensions have rapidly escalated in the past few days amid growing speculation that Israel could push ahead with air strikes on Iran. Trump's Middle East pointman Steve Witkoff is set to hold a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman, which has mediated efforts towards a nuclear deal so far. But Iran has also ramped up rhetorical pressure before the talks, including with a threat to strike American bases in the region if the negotiations break down and conflict erupts. 'If the talks fail, the risk of military escalation becomes much more immediate,' said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The United States on Wednesday said it was reducing embassy staff in Iraq -- long a zone of proxy conflict with Iran. Israel, which counts on US military and diplomatic support, sees the cleric-run state in Tehran as an existential threat and hit Iranian air defenses last year. Netanyahu has vowed less restraint since the unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas, which triggered the massive Israeli offensive in Gaza. - 'Non-compliance' - The United States and other Western countries, along with Israel, have repeatedly accused Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, which it has repeatedly denied. Israel again called for global action after the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused Iran on Wednesday of non-compliance with its obligations. The resolution could lay the groundwork for European countries to invoke a 'snapback' mechanism, which expires in October, that would reinstate UN sanctions eased under a 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by then US president Barack Obama. Trump pulled out of the deal in his first term and slapped Iran with sweeping sanctions. Iran's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, slammed the resolution as 'extremist' and blamed Israeli influence. In response to the resolution, Iran said it would launch a new enrichment center in a secure location. Iran would also replace 'all of these first-generation machines with sixth-generation advanced machines' at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, said Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. Iran currently enriches uranium to 60 percent, far above the 3.67-percent limit set in the 2015 deal and close, though still short, of the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead.
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trade expert believes negotiated deal on tariffs possible
Despite the looming escalation in the trade conflict between the EU and the United States, US trade policy expert Laura von Daniels still sees chances for a negotiated solution. "There are still certain loopholes in Trump's tariff announcements. There is room for manoeuvre, both positively and negatively," the political scientist from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin told dpa on Tuesday. While the blanket minimum 10% US tariffs on imports from all countries are unlikely to be reversed, von Daniels believes negotiations regarding the planned country-specific surcharges, which are set to take effect on Wednesday, are possible. For the EU, Trump has announced a tariff rate of 20%, while the bloc has said it wants a free trade deal with the US on industrial goods. But von Daniels also warned that the situation could worsen. Trump could impose additional tariffs on specific industries - such as the pharmaceutical sector - or try to prohibit European companies from exporting certain technologies to China. "This could lead to the collapse of another business sector," she said. At the same time, Europe's security dependence on the US significantly limits the EU's options for countermeasures, such as actions against US digital corporations, the expert added. "Trump links trade policy with security policy. He ties tariff threats to demands for higher defence spending," von Daniels explained. She suggested it is even conceivable that Trump might use NATO membership or US security guarantees for Europe as leverage. How long and how resolutely Trump continues this course could depend on whether broader protests arise in the US or whether his own voter base turns against him. According to von Daniels, initial models show that the tariffs could cost an average US household $3,000 to $5,000 annually. "Trump is harming a large portion of his own supporters," she said. It is also possible that Trump may soon distance himself from his government adviser Elon Musk, von Daniels added, as a symbolic act to appease his base. Trump could signal, "I'm listening and taking action." The president is already aware that Musk's mass layoffs and budget cuts have not been well-received among his voter base, and he has increasingly moved away from Musk's position in recent appearances.
The Guardian
25-03-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Ukraine ceasefire deal looks like a Russian wishlist tied with a US bow
The Kremlin is pressing its advantage with a White House that is impatient to show that Donald Trump is the only leader who can deliver peace in the Kremlin's war against Ukraine. At first blush, the deal agreed by US negotiators in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday offers concession on concession to the Kremlin, leaving observers to question whether Russia had given anything to secure its first offer of sanctions relief since the beginning of the war. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a moratorium on attacking each other's ships in the Black Sea – a theatre of the war where Ukraine's use of seaborne drones and special operations units had put the Russians on the defensive, largely penning the Russian fleet close to the shore. But the White House account of the agreement did not even include the fine print. In its readout, the Kremlin said that it would only implement the Black Sea ceasefire once the US delivers sanctions relief on Russian agricultural products and fertilisers, as well as delisting a major state-owned bank called Rosselkhozbank that services the Russian agricultural industry. That would be the first significant rollback of sanctions on Russia since the war began, and indicates that Moscow will seek a dual price to halt its war against Ukraine: political and military concessions from Ukraine as well as an escape from the international isolation that began after its full-scale invasion in 2022. And, so far, it looks like that is a deal that the Trump administration is willing to make. 'The 'Russian art of the deal' is selling Russian demands as Russian concessions to the Americans, and then demand sanctions relief on top,' wrote Dr Janis Kluge, a researcher who focuses on the Russian economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a thinktank. 'The demand here is that Ukraine is not allowed to attack Russian warships any more and Russia gets to inspect Ukrainian ships.' Any sanctions relief on Russia will be limited by the readiness of Europe to take similar steps – but Tuesday's deal still reflects a serious reorientation of the diplomacy around Ukraine and leaves Europe more isolated in restraining Russia. Ukraine had opposed any rollback on sanctions against the Kremlin. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he considered it to be a 'weakening of our position and the easing of sanctions' against Russia, a position that was not compatible with an 'unconditional ceasefire' against energy infrastructure and at sea. It also appears that either the White House hid the plans to ease sanctions – or US negotiators were themselves surprised by the Russian demand that limits on trade and finance be eased in order to achieve the main deliverable that the White House wants: the ability to declare even a partial ceasefire in Ukraine. 'This wasn't in the agenda before the meeting,' Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. 'The Russians, as far as we know, have raised the issue of the American assistance to transport their agricultural products … We didn't agree to that so that it would be in our common [statement].' Zelenskyy sought to sound upbeat during his remarks, and said that at least now Kyiv could appeal to the White House if Russia chose to violate the ceasefire against Ukraine in the coming month. Ukraine could also demand new sanctions against Russia if that happens, he said. But there are considerable doubts that Trump would be ready to slap further sanctions on Russia. And Steve Witkoff, his envoy, has spent 'really a lot of time in dialogue with Putin', said Zelenskyy, explaining why the White House messaging on the war sounds so much like the Kremlin narrative. In negotiations, a deal that does not work for both sides will collapse sooner or later. Tuesday's agreement – and the separate statements that have emerged – will raise further questions of whether the US can mediate a conflict in which is appears to clearly sympathise with the Kremlin.
