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The Sun
08-05-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Brazil central bank hikes rate to highest level in 19 years
RIO DE JANEIRO: Brazil's central bank on Wednesday hiked its benchmark interest for the sixth consecutive time, citing persistent inflation worries and heightened trade uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. The increase by the bank -- which has ignored leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's warnings that high rates stifle economic growth -- lifted the benchmark Selic rate to 14.75 percent. The half-point hike puts the rate at its highest level since July 2006. The bank's Monetary Policy Committee cited an 'adverse and particularly uncertain' global outlook, due to the economic situation and policy of the United States,' particularly its trade policy. At home, it noted that annual inflation, which it has forecast to reach 5.5 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, was well above the bank's target of 3.6 percent. A majority of the institutions and consulting firms surveyed by the financial daily Valor had expected the rate hike. Besides high inflation, economist Mauro Rochlin, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), pointed to an 'overheated labor market.' In March, prices in Brazil rose 5.48 percent compared to the same month in 2024. Analysts say persistently fast-rising prices partly explains left-wing Lula's sinking popularity. His approval rating of just 24 percent is at his lowest point in his three terms in office, according to a survey published in February by the Datafolha institute. Rising food costs have fuelled the spike in inflation, leading the government eliminate tariffs on imported products such as meat, sugar, and coffee. On some other measures, the economy has posted progress. Unemployment fell to seven percent in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest for the period since 2014, and GDP grew 3.4 percent in 2024, its strongest increase since 2021.
Washington Post
04-04-2025
- Business
- Washington Post
Once called the world's most popular politician, Brazil's Lula faces plummeting approval
RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was once called the most popular politician on Earth by then-U.S. President Barack Obama. Those times are long gone. Halfway through his latest four-year term, Lula's approval rating has plunged down to levels never before seen in any of this three administrations. Brazil's economy is growing and its unemployment is decreasing, but people are complaining about higher food prices and crime. Lula's approval rating has dropped to 24%, according to the country's most prominent pollster Datafolha in its latest February poll, which interviewed 2,007 people across Brazil with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. That is an all-time low across his time in office from 2003 to 2010, and since he took office again in 2023 . The previous record was 28% in 2005. Surveys by other firms also show a rise in discontent. And in an apparent attempt to claw back support, the government on Thursday is hosting an event in the capital, Brasilia. 'The objective is to present the achievements of the Federal Government in the first two years,' the presidential palace said in a statement this week. Lula's difficulties come against a Brazilian political landscape in upheaval, with his predecessor and bitter rival former President Jair Bolsonaro due to stand trial on charges that the right-wing politician attempted a coup . The plunge in support also comes as Lula, 79, weighs whether to run for re-election next year. For many observers, the increase in the cost of food is a top reason for Lula's fall in popularity. Food and drinks were nearly 8% more expensive in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to Brazil's national statistics agency. 'Food inflation has a direct impact on people's lives,' said Carla Beni, a professor of economics at Getulio Vargas Foundation, pointing especially to the rise of the cost of meat, a staple of Brazilians' diet. Beni said prices have soared due to the impact of climate change on crops and the strengthening of the dollar against the real. An uptick in food prices particularly affects the poor – Lula's historical support base. A poll by private firm Genial/Quaest released Wednesday showed a surge in disapproval among women, Black people and in Brazil's poorer northeast. In six months, the percentage of respondents who disapprove of Lula's administration in the northeast jumped from 26% to 46%. And more women have a poor opinion of the government than they do a positive one. 'Not only are things expensive, but we're also living in a dangerous country,' said Anderson Vianna, 45, a sales representative who lives Rio de Janeiro's low-income northern zone. 'If you have your phone in hand, you can't relax,' added the man who voted for Lula in 2002, 2006 and 2022. To reign in food inflation, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced on March 6 that the government would reduce import taxes to zero on a series of products, including meat and coffee. But the measure does not appear to have turned the public's perception of the government. João Feres, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro State University, said Lula's government has a myriad of public policies but 'the problem is communicating the results of these policies.' A blow to Lula came in January, when his government said it would increase oversight of financial transactions, including Brazil's popular instant payment system PIX. That sparked a flurry of fake news pushed by far-right politicians close to Bolsonaro, who said the government planned to impose a new tax on PIX payments. The administration denied the accusation, but ended up backtracking on the step. 'That was the first point that really damaged Lula's image,' said Paulo Feldmann, an economist at the University of Sao Paulo. Crime and violence are other top concerns. 'Since the end of restriction of movement due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it's in first place' in the ranking of Brazilians' worries, said Marcos Calliari, the country's director of pollster IPSOS. Over the weekend, the video of an influencer inadvertently filming the moment her phone was stolen at the Lollapalooza festival in Sao Paulo went viral. Almost one in 10 Brazilians had their phone stolen between July 2023 and June 2024, according to Datafolha. Lula has sharpened his tone against thieves in recent weeks. 'We will not allow criminals to take over our country,' he said on March 19. The justice ministry is planning to send a bill to Congress that would increase the maximum sentence for receiving and benefiting from stolen cellphones from eight to up to 12 years, it said in a statement on Friday. Lula's government is also preparing a wider bill on security. To woo back voters, the government is also counting on a proposal to cut taxation for the poor. Mid-March, the administration sent a bill to Congress that seeks to exempt individuals earning up to 5000 reais (around $880) per month from income tax, up from around 2,300 reais currently. If Congress approves the bill, observers say it could be a big win for Lula, though it's uncertain whether it will restore his popularity. With Lula struggling in the polls and Bolsonaro barred from running until 2030 , the next election is much more unpredictable than the previous one , Beni said. Vianna, the sales representative, said he is disappointed and is not sure he would vote for Lula again. 'We need a renewal.'
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Bolsonaro trial: A political reset for Brazil?
With far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro headed for trial on coup charges, Brazilians are starting to contemplate a future without the polarizing populist in the picture. The 70-year-old risks a prison sentence of 40 years and political banishment if found guilty of seeking to wrest power from Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after divisive elections the leftist won by a whisker. With 79-year-old Lula's future also uncertain, is this the end of a political era? - A martyr? - "There is a concrete possibility that Bolsonaro will go to prison and in that sense his political future ends there," Daniela Campello, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a renowned think tank, told AFP. Even if acquitted, Bolsonaro will need to overcome a ban on him holding public office until 2030 -- imposed after he was found guilty of spreading misinformation about Brazil's voting system during the 2022 campaign he lost. The ex-army captain has insisted he will be the candidate of the political right, of which he remains the unchallenged leader, in elections in 2026. Some opinion polls show him beating Lula, who has not stated whether he will seek re-election amid concerns over his health and low approval ratings. Bolsonaro will likely campaign throughout his trial, expected to be held soon so as not to be seen to interfere with the election build-up. "Bolsonaro will go as far as he can with his candidacy to keep his support base as enthusiastic as possible," said analyst Marcio Coimbra of the Casa Politica think tank. Observers say he will likely pick his charismatic wife Michele or one of his politician sons as a running mate to continue the campaign in the event his candidacy is ruled out. "If he is convicted, he could become a martyr," said Jose Niemeyer, a professor of international relations at Brazil's Ibmec University. - Competition on the right? - Among the Brazilian right and far-right -- which together hold the majority in parliament -- challengers to Bolsonaro may start arising as he fights the charges against him, analysts say. One oft-mentioned name is that of Tarcisio de Freitas, governor of Sao Paulo state and a former minister in Bolsonaro's cabinet. Others include Romeu Zema and Ratinho Junior, the governors of Minas Gerais and Parana states. None has openly confirmed a presidential ambition, and all have publicly rallied around the boss. "Bolsonaro is Brazil's main political leader and will remain so," Freitas wrote on X this week. - Lula's loss? - While Bolsonaro's trial should be a boon for Lula, it comes as his own approval rating has dropped to just 24 percent -- the lowest across his first two terms from 2003 and 2010, and the current one that started in 2023. Public anger at high inflation is thought to be the main reason. Analysts say Brazilian voter loyalty is pretty much set in stone regardless of who heads the ticket. But if Bolsonaro disappears into the political abyss by 2026, the effect for Lula -- then 81 -- could be negative too, said Niemeyer. Many voters see his main value as being an "antidote to Bolsonaro," the Ibmec professor said, and with his rival gone, Lula may start appearing replaceable. rsr-jss/app/mlr/cb/mlm
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Bolsonaro trial: A political reset for Brazil?
With far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro headed for trial on coup charges, Brazilians are starting to contemplate a future without the polarizing populist in the picture. The 70-year-old risks a prison sentence of 40 years and political banishment if found guilty of seeking to wrest power from Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after divisive elections the leftist won by a whisker. With 79-year-old Lula's future also uncertain, is this the end of a political era? - A martyr? - "There is a concrete possibility that Bolsonaro will go to prison and in that sense his political future ends there," Daniela Campello, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a renowned think tank, told AFP. Even if acquitted, Bolsonaro will need to overcome a ban on him holding public office until 2030 -- imposed after he was found guilty of spreading misinformation about Brazil's voting system during the 2022 campaign he lost. The ex-army captain has insisted he will be the candidate of the political right, of which he remains the unchallenged leader, in elections in 2026. Some opinion polls show him beating Lula, who has not stated whether he will seek re-election amid concerns over his health and low approval ratings. Bolsonaro will likely campaign throughout his trial, expected to be held soon so as not to be seen to interfere with the election build-up. "Bolsonaro will go as far as he can with his candidacy to keep his support base as enthusiastic as possible," said analyst Marcio Coimbra of the Casa Politica think tank. Observers say he will likely pick his charismatic wife Michele or one of his politician sons as a running mate to continue the campaign in the event his candidacy is ruled out. "If he is convicted, he could become a martyr," said Jose Niemeyer, a professor of international relations at Brazil's Ibmec University. - Competition on the right? - Among the Brazilian right and far-right -- which together hold the majority in parliament -- challengers to Bolsonaro may start arising as he fights the charges against him, analysts say. One oft-mentioned name is that of Tarcisio de Freitas, governor of Sao Paulo state and a former minister in Bolsonaro's cabinet. Others include Romeu Zema and Ratinho Junior, the governors of Minas Gerais and Parana states. None has openly confirmed a presidential ambition, and all have publicly rallied around the boss. "Bolsonaro is Brazil's main political leader and will remain so," Freitas wrote on X this week. - Lula's loss? - While Bolsonaro's trial should be a boon for Lula, it comes as his own approval rating has dropped to just 24 percent -- the lowest across his first two terms from 2003 and 2010, and the current one that started in 2023. Public anger at high inflation is thought to be the main reason. Analysts say Brazilian voter loyalty is pretty much set in stone regardless of who heads the ticket. But if Bolsonaro disappears into the political abyss by 2026, the effect for Lula -- then 81 -- could be negative too, said Niemeyer. Many voters see his main value as being an "antidote to Bolsonaro," the Ibmec professor said, and with his rival gone, Lula may start appearing replaceable. rsr-jss/app/mlr/cb/mlm
Arab News
25-03-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Brazil's Supreme Court poised to decide if Bolsonaro will stand trial over coup attempt accusation
RIO DE JANEIRO: A panel of Brazil's Supreme Court justices will gather on Tuesday to determine whether former President Jair Bolsonaro and close allies will stand trial on five counts, including attempting to stage a coup. Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Bolsonaro last month with plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to his opponent and current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Part of that plan allegedly included poisoning Lula and killing Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a foe of Bolsonaro. Five Supreme Court justices – including de Moraes, the rapporteur – will meet from 9:30 a.m. local time in Brasilia to rule on the charges leveled by Gonet. If a majority votes in favor, the accused will become defendants in a criminal case. Bolsonaro and his alleged accomplices also stand accused of participating in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, damage qualified by violence and a serious threat against the state's assets, and deterioration of listed heritage. Bolsonaro has repeatedly denied wrongdoing and says that he's being politically persecuted. Under Brazilian law, a coup conviction alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years, but combined with the other charges, he could be sentenced to decades behind bars. Observers say that it's likely that the charges will be accepted. 'There is no shadow of a doubt that there are very clear elements' that crimes were committed, said Thiago Bottino, a law professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a think tank and university. 'The current tendency is that there will be a criminal trial.' Gonet filed charges against a total of 34 people in February. On Tuesday, the Supreme Court will analyze whether to accept charges against eight of them. As well as Bolsonaro, the court will vote on the accusations faced by former Defense Ministers Walter Braga Netto and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira and ex-Justice Minister Anderson Torres, among others. The court will decide on the others' fates later on. Bolsonaro has sought to shore up political support before the possible trial, including by holding a protest on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on March 16. Local media reported that around 18,000 people attended the rally, based on figures from a monitoring project linked to the University of Sao Paulo. Bolsonaro's allies had hoped to draw a crowd of 1 million, which led some analysts to say that his ability to mobilize voters is diminishing. Bolsonaro called on social media Sunday for a new demonstration on April 6, to be held on one of Sao Paulo's main arteries, Avenida Paulista. As with the protest earlier this month, the former president and his allies will push for Congress to grant amnesty to those in jail for their roles in the Jan. 8, 2023 riot, when Bolsonaro's die-hard fans stormed and trashed the Supreme Court, Presidential Palace and Congress a week after Lula took office. In his indictment of Bolsonaro and others linked to him, Gonet said that the rampage was a last-ditch attempt to hold onto power. Bolsonaro, a former military officer who was known to express nostalgia for the country's 1964-1985 dictatorship, openly defied Brazil's judicial system during his 2019-2022 term in office. He has already been banned by Brazil's top electoral court from running in elections until 2030 over abuse of power while in office and casting unfounded doubts on the country's electronic voting system.
