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Asia Times
05-02-2025
- Politics
- Asia Times
Iran speeding up work on its nukes, two new reports say
Two conflicting reports on Iran's nuclear weapons program were disclosed this week. Both reports offer important insight into just how Tehran is speeding up work on nuclear weapons. The first report is from the New York Times which says US Intelligence has new findings on Iran's weapons program. It goes on to say that the new information was briefed to President Trump's national security team. The second report comes from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). The NCRI is an anti-regime organization that operates inside Iran. The US Intelligence briefing says that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon 'faster' although the resulting weapon will be 'cruder.' US intelligence attaches a caveat to its new information, declaring that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon. The New York Times does not explain how Iran could have embarked on a 'cruder' weapon even though no decision has been made on going ahead by Iran's Supreme Leader. The NCRI paints a different picture. It says that Iran has two important nuclear facilities, one located at Sharad, which doubles as a space launch site, and the other at Semnan, that also has space launch capabilities. Both towns are east of Tehran. Sharad is kept as a top secret facility ostensibly for launching communications satellites. NCRI says it actually operates as a nuclear weapons development facility, with most of those activities underground. The Sharad launch facility features a new solid fuel Ghaem-100, a two-stage intermediate range ballistic missile. NCRI says that 3 Ghaem-100 missiles have already been launched, and a newer version, Ghaem 105 is being prepared for testing. Ballistic missiles on road-mobile launchers during a 2021 exercise. Photo: Farsnews In October, 2024 Israel launched a retaliatory attack on Iran, knocking out important Iranian air defenses and the industrial site where Iran produces solid rocket fuel for weapons such as the Ghaem. This was a strategic move to deprive Iran of solid-fuel rockets to attack Israel. Sharad is under the command of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force. NCRI has identified the current commanders and the chief scientists involved at Sharad. The second site at Semnan officially is the Khomeini Space Launch Terminal. The site has recently been significantly expanded. The site includes a special Geophysics Group run by the Organization for Advanced Defense Research (SPND). Allegedly the Geophysics Group is tied to Tehran University and its Earthquake Seismology department, providing a cover for bomb component testing. The Semnan facility features the Simorgh liquid-fueled missile. Simorgh is similar to the North Korean UNHA-1, an intermediate range ballistic missile. Solid-fuel missiles require far less set-up time to launch, replacing the lengthy fueling process needed for older-type ballistic missiles. Both US Intelligence and the NCRI reports converge on one important aspect of weapons design and development. The US Intelligence Report suggests that Iran has not progressed rapidly enough to develop a weapon that can be launched on an intermediate range ballistic missile. Reading between the lines, that means Iran's effort at miniaturizing a small enough warhead has not yet borne fruit. A small size nuclear warhead would be fueled by plutonium (which Iranian nuclear reactors can manufacture). Plutonium bombs require a high level of engineering and special electronics to create the implosion around the plutonium core required for a successful bomb. The 'cruder' approach would be to fall back on an uranium atomic bomb, like the one used at Hiroshima, that uses highly enriched uranium and a simpler gun-type mechanism to create a chain reaction and an atomic blast. The uranium solution is likely the 'cruder' approach US intelligence is reporting. It is noteworthy that the Hiroshima bomb was never tested fully before it was used. Iran may also think it can field a uranium bomb and not have to demonstrate one by exploding it. The Hiroshima bomb was quite large, weighing 4,400 kg (9,700 lbs.). To get it into a B-29, a four engine bomber, the aircraft had to be modified so the bomb could be lifted into the belly of the plane from a special lift in the ground under the aircraft. While a uranium bomb today might be lighter than that used at Hiroshima, it likely still would be too heavy and big for a missile. Special loading mechanism for Hiroshima 'Little Boy' bomb on B-29 Superfortress. This means Iran would probably want to deploy a weapon like this on a navy ship. Back on August 2, 1939 Albert Einstein sent a letter to President Franklin Roosevelt. In that letter, Einstein pointed out that while a uranium weapon probably would be too heavy for an aircraft, it could be carried by a boat. 'A single bomb,' Einstein told Roosevelt, 'carried by boat and exploded in a port, might very well destroy the whole port with some surrounding territory.' The NCRI report concurs that Iran does not yet have a bomb it can mount on a missile but unlike the US Intelligence report, it makes clear that the IRGC is working on a weapon that is deliverable by missile – meaning a miniaturized plutonium bomb. An interesting question is: If Iran closely cooperates with North Korea on its nuclear and missile programs, why does it not have a usable warhead? Iranian (and Syrian) collaboration with North Korea has been ongoing for years, and the North Koreans claim they have missile-deliverable nuclear warheads. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that North Korea has enough fissile material to build up to 90 nuclear warheads, but has likely assembled closer to 50. The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) says that North Korea has built around 30 fissile material cores for use in nuclear weapons, including four-to-six two-stage thermonuclear weapons. While the DIA does not say the 'fissile material cores' can be mounted on missiles, a Japanese report says that North Korea can miniaturize nuclear warheads. In September, 2007 in an audacious operation called 'Operation Outside the Box,' Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor at al-Kibar in Syria. That reactor was a carbon-copy of North Korea's Yongbyon 5 megawatt nuclear reactor, which produces plutonium for North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The North Koreans partnered with Syria and Iran for the al-Kibar project. Had the reactor been operating it would have been outside of IAEA's inspection and could have produced a significant amount of fuel for sophisticated plutonium bombs. Both reports could be right in that Iran may be trying to produce both uranium and plutonium-fueled weapons. This would track just how the US developed atomic weapons leading to Hiroshima and Nagasaki and eventually to an entire arsenal of nukes with various delivery means. The US Intelligence argument that Iran's supreme leader has not made a decision on fielding nuclear weapons seems disingenuous. The IRGC, which really runs the show in Iran, is certainly investing billions in the effort, and if anything the effort has been intensified and sped up. Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission .
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran ‘secretly building nuclear missiles that can hit Europe'
Iran is developing nuclear missiles with a range of 3,000km based on designs handed to the Islamic regime by North Korea, The Telegraph can disclose. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which has previously exposed details of Tehran's secret uranium enrichment facilities, has shared information on how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are expanding their weapons programmes. The exiled opposition group says that two sites camouflaged as communication satellite launch facilities have been used to rush the production of nuclear warheads. They are both under the control of the Organisation for Advanced Defence Research (SPND), the regime's nuclear weapons arm. Credit: Google Earth 'The Iranian mullahs are masters of lies, deception and evasion. For over two decades, they have used negotiations and the West's leniency as a means to advance their nuclear weapons programme, threatening global peace and stability,' Soona Samsami, a US representative of the NCRI, told The Telegraph. 'Tehran has never been as weak and vulnerable as it is today. The desperate Iranian regime is thus speeding up the development of nuclear weapons. 'Now is the time to hold the regime accountable for internal killings, regional warmongering, and nuclear weapons development,' she added. At the first site, known as the Shahrud missile site, about 35km from a city of the same name, SPND and IRGC Aerospace Force experts have been working on producing a nuclear warhead capable of being fitted to a Ghaem-100, solid-fuelled rocket with a range of 3,000km. Missiles with that range would allow Iran to launch nuclear strikes deep into Europe from its territory – as far as the likes Greece, and regional targets such Israel, Tehran's arch enemy. There have been at least three successful launches of the rocket, which the NCRI says 'enhances the regime's capability to deploy nuclear weapons'. The IRGC has also announced plans to test more advanced Ghaem-105 rockets in the coming months. Previous tests at the site were conducted as satellite launches as the rockets were described as 'satellite carriers' to conceal the regime's alleged nuclear missile programme, the NCRI says. Satellite images show a large concrete platform from which mobile launch vehicles can fire the rockets skywards. Nearby, there are clusters of buildings where the research is believed to be used for research purposes. Credit: Google Earth A second site, situated around 70km southeast of the city of Semnan, is being used to develop Simorgh missiles, a weapon based on North Korean designs. The designs are similar to the North Korean UNHA-1, an 18-metre tall rocket, which Pyongyang says is an expendable rocket for carrying equipment into space. Significant portions of the site are based underground to conceal the work from intelligence satellites capturing images of the area. To further obscure the military purpose of the Semnan missile site, the regime named it the Imam Khomeini site after Iran's space organisation and carried out ballistic missile launches under the guise of satellite launches. The regime has been steadily expanding the site since around 2005, with six new structures emerging on satellite imagery over the past decade. Images shared by the NCRI show a large section of ground in the northeastern corner of the Semnan site being excavated in 2009. As progress continues, concrete foundations are seen being erected in the hole. Images from 2012 of the same section of the base show the structure entirely covered with dirt. According to the NCRI, activities by the SPND, including its geophysics department, which specialises in monitoring underground explosions from nuclear warhead productions, have intensified. Journalists were once permitted to visit the site, where they witnessed IRGC soldiers dressed in civilian clothes, but had their photographs confiscated by regime enforcers, with only a handful of selected images released. Both sites have been designated military facilities and follow strict security protocols to avoid unwanted guests discovering what work is being undertaken at them. Workers at the sites arrive at an external perimeter gate, often dozens of kilometres from the main facilities, in their private cars from Tehran and other cities. From the checkpoint, the employees are brought in by bus by the IRGC to ensure maximum security. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran's covert nuclear agency found operating out of top space program launch sites
FIRST ON FOX: A covert agency within Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, tasked with the development of Iran's nuclear program, has been found to be operating out of top sites used by Iran's space program. Iran has hidden elements of its nuclear development program under the guise of commercial enterprises, and it has been suspected of using its space program to develop technologies that could be applied to its nuclear weapons program. Fox News Digital has learned that according to information obtained by sources embedded in the Iranian regime, evidence collected over several months shows that Iran's chief nuclear development agency, the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, has been operating out two locations previously recognized as space development and launch sites. Iran Hiding Missile, Drone Programs Under Guise Of Commercial Front To Evade Sanctions "These reports, compiled from dozens of sources and thoroughly validated, indicate that in recent months, SPND has intensified its efforts to construct nuclear warheads at both the Shahrud and Semnan sites," the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) said in a report exclusively obtained by Fox News Digital. The information was obtained by individuals affiliated with the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran and given to the NCRI, an Iranian opposition organization based out of Washington, D.C., and Paris. The NCRI's deputy director of its Washington, D.C., office, Alireza Jafarzadeh, was the first to disclose to the world information about Iran's covert nuclear program in 2002. Read On The Fox News App One of the sites, the Shahroud Space Center, which has been suspected of being used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to develop intermediate-range ballistic missiles, is also now reported to have "large-scale" SPND personnel operating out of it – a move Jafarzadeh described as a "significant red flag." The Shahroud Space Center caught global attention in 2022 when Iran announced it had developed the Ghaem-100 rocket, which could be used to send low-orbit satellites into space, but also as a ballistic missile with a range of nearly 1,400 miles, greater than what was previously achieved with the Qased rocket. However, according to sources familiar with activity at the Shahroud Space Center "SPND's experts are working on a nuclear warhead for the Ghaem100 solid-fuel missile with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers [more than 1,800 miles] and a mobile launch pad." Iran Expands Weaponization Capabilities Critical For Employing Nuclear Bomb The site is under high security and personnel are apparently prohibited from driving on to the complex. Instead, they are required to park at a checkpoint at the entrance to the site, before being transported inside the complex by the IRGC. "The Ghaem-100 missile, with a mobile launchpad that enhances its military capability, was produced by the IRGC Aerospace Force and copied from North Korean missiles," the NCRI report said. "The production of the Ghaem missile was designed from the very beginning to carry a nuclear warhead. The IRGC Brigadier General Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, the father of the IRGC's missile program, personally pursued the project." It is unclear what level of nuclear payload the Ghaem-100 missile would be capable of carrying at the range of 1,800 miles, though this is still shy of the roughly 3,400 miles needed to be classified as an intercontinental missile. The second site, located in the northern city of Semnan, the Imam Khomeini Spaceport – Iran's first spaceport – made international headlines just last month when Tehran launched its heaviest-ever rocket into space carrying a payload of roughly 660 pounds, relying on a liquid propellant. According to the NCRI report, Iran is using this technology to develop liquid-fuel propellants, like the Simorgh rocket with a range of more than 1,800 miles, used for launching heavier satellites into space – but with the capability of carrying nuclear warheads. Iran Launches Rocket With Heaviest-ever Payload Into Space Amid Heightened Concern Over Nuclear Program Liquid fuel enables a missile to have greater propulsive thrust, power and control. Though it is heavier than solid fuel and requires more complex technologies. "Creating a Space Command of the IRGC's Aerospace Force has served to camouflage the development of nuclear warheads under the guise of launching satellites while additionally giving the regime independent communications necessary for guiding the nuclear warheads," Jafarzadeh told Fox News Digital. The International Atomic Energy Agency earlier this month warned that Iran has developed some 440 pounds of near-weapons grade uranium that has been enriched to the 60% purity threshold – shy of the 90% purity levels needed to develop a nuclear bomb. Though only some 92 pounds of weapons-grade uranium is reportedly required to create one nuclear bomb, meaning Iran, if it further enriched its uranium, could possess enough material to develop five nuclear bombs. However, Jafarzadeh warned that the international community needs to be paying attention to Iran's activities beyond enriching uranium. "It is naïve to only focus on calculating the amount or purity of enriched uranium without concentrating on the construction of the nuclear bomb or its delivery system," he said. "All are integral components of giving Iran's mullahs an atomic bomb."Original article source: Iran's covert nuclear agency found operating out of top space program launch sites
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran ‘building nuclear missiles with 3,000km range at sites disguised as satellite launch bases'
Iran is developing nuclear missiles with a range of 3,000km based on designs handed to the Islamic regime by North Korea, The Telegraph can disclose. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which has previously exposed details of Tehran's top secret uranium enrichment facilities, has shared information on how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are expanding their weapons programmes. The exiled opposition group say that two sites camouflaged as communication satellite launch facilities have been used to rush the production of nuclear warheads. They are both under the control of the Organisation for Advanced Defence Research (SPND), the regime's nuclear weapons arm. Credit: Google Earth 'The Iranian mullahs are masters of lies, deception, and evasion. For over two decades, they have used negotiations and the West's leniency as a means to advance their nuclear weapons programme, threatening global peace and stability,' Soona Samsami, a US representative of the NCRI, told The Telegraph. 'Tehran has never been as weak and vulnerable as it is today. The desperate Iranian regime is thus speeding up the development of nuclear weapons.' 'Now is the time to hold the regime accountable for internal killings, regional warmongering, and nuclear weapons development,' she added. At the first site, known as the Shahrud missile site, about 35km from a city of the same name, SPND and IRGC Aerospace Force experts have been working on producing a nuclear warhead capable of being fitted to a Ghaem-100, solid-fuelled rocket with a range of 3,000km. Missiles with that range would allow Iran to launch nuclear strikes deep into Europe from its territory – as far as the likes of Italy, Greece, Poland and Slovakia, and regional targets such Israel, Tehran's arch enemy. There have been at least three successful launches of the rocket, which the NCRI says 'enhances the regime's capability to deploy nuclear weapons'. The IRGC has also announced plans to test more advanced Ghaem-105 rockets in the coming months. Previous tests at the site were conducted as satellite launches as the rockets were described as 'satellite carriers' to conceal the regime's alleged nuclear missile programme, the NCRI says. Satellite images show a large concrete platform from which mobile launch vehicles can fire the rockets skywards. Nearby, there are clusters of buildings where the research is believed to be used for research purposes. Credit: Google Earth A second site, situated around 70km southeast of the city of Semnan, is being used to develop Simorgh missiles, a weapon based on North Korean designs. The designs are similar to the North Korean UNHA-1, an 18-metre tall rocket, which Pyongyang says is an expendable rocket for carrier equipment into space. Significant portions of the site are based underground to conceal the work from intelligence satellites capturing images of the area. To further obscure the military purpose of the Semnan missile site, the regime named it the Imam Khomeini site after Iran's space organisation and carried out ballistic missile launches under the guise of satellite launches. The regime has been steadily expanding the site since around 2005, with six new structures emerging on satellite imagery over the last decade. Images shared by the NCRI show a large section of ground in the northeastern corner of the Semnan site being excavated in 2009. As progress continues concrete foundations could be seen being erected in the hole. Images from 2012 of the same section of the base show the structure entirely covered with dirt. According to the NCRI, activities by the SPND, including its geophysics department, which specialises in monitoring underground explosions from nuclear warhead productions, have intensified. Journalists were once permitted to visit the site, where they witnessed IRGC soldiers dressed in civilian clothes, but had their photographs confiscated by regime enforcers, with only a handful of selected images released. Both sites have been designated military facilities and follow strict security protocols to avoid unwanted guests discovering what work is being undertaken at them. Workers at the sites arrive at an external perimeter gate, often dozens of kilometres from the main facilities, in their private cars from Tehran and other cities. From the checkpoint, the employees are bussed in by the IRGC to ensure maximum security. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
31-01-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Iran ‘building nuclear missiles with 3,000km range at sites disguised as satellite launch bases'
Iran is The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which has previously exposed details of Tehran's top secret uranium enrichment facilities, has shared information on how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are The exiled opposition group say that two sites camouflaged as communication satellite launch facilities have been used to rush the production of nuclear warheads. They are both under the control of the Organisation for Advanced Defence Research (SPND), the regime's nuclear weapons arm. 'The Iranian mullahs are masters of lies, deception, and evasion. For over two decades, they have used negotiations and the West's leniency as a means to advance their nuclear weapons programme, 'Tehran has never been as weak and vulnerable as it is today. The desperate Iranian regime is thus speeding up the development of nuclear weapons.' 'Now is the time to hold the regime accountable for internal killings, regional warmongering, and nuclear weapons development,' she added. At the first site, known as the Shahrud missile site, about 35km from a city of the same name, SPND and IRGC Aerospace Force experts have been working on producing a nuclear warhead capable of being fitted to a Ghaem-100, solid-fuelled rocket with a range of 3,000km. Missiles with that range would allow Iran to launch nuclear strikes deep into Europe from its territory – as far as the likes of Italy, Greece, Poland and Slovakia, and There have been at least three successful launches of the rocket, which the NCRI says 'enhances the regime's capability to deploy nuclear weapons'. The IRGC has also announced plans to test more advanced Ghaem-105 rockets in the coming months. Previous tests at the site were conducted as satellite launches as the rockets were described as 'satellite carriers' to conceal the regime's alleged nuclear missile programme, the NCRI says. Satellite images show a large concrete platform from which mobile launch vehicles can fire the rockets skywards. Nearby, there are clusters of buildings where the research is believed to be used for research purposes. A second site, situated around 70km southeast of the city of Semnan, is being used to develop Simorgh missiles, a weapon based on North Korean designs. The designs are similar to the North Korean UNHA-1, an 18-metre tall rocket, which Pyongyang says is an expendable rocket for carrier equipment into space. Significant portions of the site are based underground to conceal the work from intelligence satellites capturing images of the area. To further obscure the military purpose of the Semnan missile site, the regime named it the Imam Khomeini site after Iran's space organisation and carried out ballistic missile launches under the guise of satellite launches. The regime has been steadily expanding the site since around 2005, with six new structures emerging on satellite imagery over the last decade. Images shared by the NCRI show a large section of ground in the northeastern corner of the Semnan site being excavated in 2009. As progress continues concrete foundations could be seen being erected in the hole. Images from 2012 of the same section of the base show the structure entirely covered with dirt. According to the NCRI, activities by the SPND, including its geophysics department, which specialises in monitoring underground explosions from nuclear warhead productions, have intensified. Journalists were once permitted to visit the site, where they witnessed IRGC soldiers dressed in civilian clothes, but had their photographs confiscated by regime enforcers, with only a handful of selected images released. Both sites have been designated military facilities and follow strict security protocols to avoid unwanted guests discovering what work is being undertaken at them. Workers at the sites arrive at an external perimeter gate, often dozens of kilometres from the main facilities, in their private cars from Tehran and other cities. From the checkpoint, the employees are bussed in by the IRGC to ensure maximum security.
