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Asia News Network
29-07-2025
- Climate
- Asia News Network
Water scarcity in Pakistan — a geopolitical ticking time bomb
July 29, 2025 ISLAMABAD – Pakistan is currently grappling with severe urban flooding triggered by erratic and intensified rainfall events — a clear manifestation of climate change. In 2024 and 2025, the country's major cities have been lashed by record-breaking downpours, overwhelming fragile drainage systems and displacing thousands. The latest wave of flooding in 2025 has already claimed the lives of at least 242 people, with more fatalities feared as fresh storms loom. These floods, while destructive, highlight a squandered opportunity — the inability to store excess water. Limited dam storage and poor urban watershed management result in the loss of floodwaters as runoff, rather than their storage for dry spells. Climate scientists have repeatedly warned about extreme weather volatility, with floods and droughts alternating as the new normal for South Asia. Without resilient water storage infrastructure and rainwater harvesting, both urban and rural areas in Pakistan will remain trapped in a cycle of water excess followed by water scarcity. A strategic and economic threat By various measures of water availability, from the Falkenmark index — an indicator used to measure water scarcity — to the water poverty index, Pakistan currently stands as the 15th most water-stressed nation in the world. Per the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), Pakistan is predicted to slip into absolute water scarcity by 2035 — a frightening prospect for the world's fifth most populous country. According to the World Wildlife Fund-Pakistan (WWF-P), the country's annual per capita water availability has plummeted from about 5,600 cubic meters in 1947 to just 930 cubic meters in 2023 — dangerously below the level conventionally defined as water scarcity. According to Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, Pakistan's water stress is among the highest globally, underscoring that securing the resource is now a matter of national survival. Put simply: we are hurtling toward an inevitable crisis of catastrophic proportions. Water woes and climate change go hand in hand Adding to Pakistan's water crisis is the relentless pressure of climate change. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, although Pakistan contributes only a fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, it ranks among the top 10 countries most impacted by climate change. The country has faced unprecedented heatwaves in recent years — extreme temperatures that have caused water reservoirs and dams to lose up to 20 per cent of their capacity through evaporation. Meanwhile, global warming has accelerated the melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, which supplies over 75pc of the Indus River's flow. These trends threaten to destabilise the timing and volume of river waters that Pakistan has relied upon for millennia. Looking ahead, the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) stated that Pakistan's average temperature is projected to rise by 4.9°C by 2090, foretelling even greater hydrological volatility. Erratic monsoon rains and a vicious cycle of drought followed by flood have already become the new normal. The human and economic toll of this volatility is mounting. Rainfall patterns across the country have grown increasingly unpredictable, And when it rains, it often unleashes devastating downpours. The catastrophic floods of 2022 are a case in point: nearly one-third of the country was submerged, causing almost $30 billion in economic losses and 1,765 fatalities. Such climate-exacerbated disasters devastate infrastructure, displace millions, and directly undermine water infrastructure by silting up dams and contaminating freshwater supplies. In essence, climate change is amplifying Pakistan's water stress, making dry seasons drier and wet seasons wetter — a recipe for sustained crisis. Indus Waters Treaty under strain Water scarcity in Pakistan is not just a domestic issue but a regional geopolitical flashpoint. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, a model of water sharing between Pakistan and India, is now facing a severe threat. The treaty gave Pakistan exclusive rights to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers (the western rivers of the Indus basin), which together provide over 80pc of Pakistan's irrigation water and around one-third of its electricity generation capacity. For decades, this arrangement maintained a fragile peace over water. However, today a combination of factors — ranging from climbing demand and geopolitical tensions to climate-induced flow variability — are testing the limits of the treaty. A study in 2021 stated that there are signs of declining flows in the western rivers, a trend some attribute to changing weather patterns and upstream diversions. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns over India's construction of large upstream hydropower projects like Kishanganga and Ratle, fearing they could eventually diminish downstream flows. These concerns have even been taken to the World Bank indicating how contentious the issue has become. Tensions spiked further in early 2025, when India announced to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Indian occupied Kashmir. India, without presenting evidence or conducting a thorough investigation, hastily placed blame on Pakistan — following its repeated pattern of blame and making this a poor pretext to suspend the treaty. This unprecedented declaration sent shockwaves through Pakistan. The New York Times reported that if India were to unilaterally withhold or redirect waters, Pakistan's farming heartlands in Punjab and Sindh could face up to a 35pc reduction in water availability in critical growing seasons. Such a scenario is nothing short of a nightmare for a country whose economy and food supply are so deeply tied to these rivers. Fortunately, immediate disruption is constrained by geography and infrastructure — during the summer monsoon, the Indus system carries huge flows that India currently lacks the capacity to fully capture or store. Nevertheless, the risk is very real in drier months: India could manipulate flows, potentially causing drought-like conditions or conversely releasing water without warning to create flash floods downstream. Pakistan's vulnerability is compounded by its own limited storage capacity. The country can only store about 30 days' worth of water, far below the 120-day international benchmark for water security. With this limited capacity, Pakistan cannot effectively bank surplus rainwater or glacial melt for lean times. This precarious situation makes Pakistan highly exposed to any upstream disruptions and to any extreme weather event. Food security under threat With a heavily water-dependent agricultural sector, the implications of dwindling water supplies for food production are both immediate and severe. A study reported that approximately three-quarters of the freshwater is consumed by just four crops: wheat, sugarcane, cotton, and rice. The policies favoring these corps over the decades, have made farmers gradually shifting away from traditional, more drought-tolerant crops like millet and barley to these cash crops. This unsustainable cropping pattern is further straining groundwater and river systems. These cash crops are already experiencing the impact. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stated in a report that in recent years, cotton production plummeted by about 41pc, largely due to flood damage and waterlogging, which in turn dealt a blow to the textile industry and rural employment. Wheat yields have increased slightly, but its growth rate (under 2.5pc per year) lags behind the global average, partly because water shortages and erratic weather have hampered productivity. The 2022 floods alone destroyed 2.4 million hectares of cropland, wiping out food stocks and farmers' livelihoods overnight. In light of these challenges, the SBP recorded a slowdown in agricultural growth, attributing it to climate stress and water scarcity undermining the output of key crops. With agriculture still employing a large share of Pakistan's workforce and feeding its population, such water-driven shocks propagate a broader economic crisis. The sustained water stress could ignite a vicious cycle: poor harvests, rising food prices, rural unemployment, and ultimately threats to economic and social stability. Policy gaps and the way forward Given the gravity of the situation, one would expect a swift and robust policy response. Unfortunately, meaningful actions have been hindered by slow policy response and poor execution. The National Water Policy of 2018 and infrastructure projects like the Diamer-Bhasha dam were deemed as long-term solutions to Pakistan's water stress. While these initiatives were steps in the right direction, progress on them has been painfully slow. The key challenges in addressing are funding issues, bureaucratic red tape, and inter-provincial mistrust over water sharing. In addition to that, politically tough but crucial measures — such as installing water meters to curb waste, regulating groundwater extraction, and incentivising crop diversification — remain largely sidelined. Breaking out of this paralysis requires both institutional reform and international diplomacy. On the diplomatic front, Pakistan must take a proactive role in engaging India — and, where necessary, involve mediators like the World Bank or other international partners — to adapt and reinforce the Indus Waters Treaty. Multilateral forums could help update the treaty's frameworks, incorporating climate adaptation (such as data sharing on glacial melt and monsoon forecasts) so that the spirit of equitable water sharing endures despite new pressures. Moreover, the government urgently needs to enforce water-use regulations — for instance, by rigorously metering large consumers and clamping down on illegal wells — to prevent wasteful usage. Investing in modern irrigation techniques is equally important: moving from traditional flood irrigation to drip irrigation and other water-saving technologies can dramatically reduce agricultural water consumption. Likewise, incentivising rainwater harvesting and watershed rehabilitation would help capture rainfall and recharge aquifers rather than letting precious water simply flow out to sea. Expanding the country's water storage capacity (through both large dams and small local reservoirs) is crucial to buffer against seasonal variability; Pakistan cannot afford to remain a country that runs on a month's worth of water. Finally, farmers should be encouraged to diversify crops and adopt climate-smart agriculture — for example, by shifting incentives and support toward less water-intensive grains and developing varieties that can withstand droughts or floods. These adaptations in farming practices will be key to aligning the country's agricultural demands with its water reality. Pakistan's water scarcity truly is a ticking time bomb, but it is not one without a defuse mechanism. What is needed is the political will to act before it's too late. Delaying the policy action narrows the options and multiplies the economic and environmental costs. Adopting multi-faced solutions through the combination of institutional reforms at home and effective diplomacy abroad, we can begin to secure our water future. The challenge is immense, but the cost of inaction would be far greater. Ensuring water security is not just about avoiding droughts or floods; it is about safeguarding Pakistan's very viability as a stable and prosperous nation. Sahar Arshad Mahmood is an assistant professor at the School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS), IBA Karachi. She holds a PhD in Economics from Clark University, with a research specialisation in environmental economics. Her current research is focused on exploring the nexus between climate change, environmental economics, and sustainable economic development in Pakistan's landscape. Muhammad Salman Khalid is an assistant professor at the School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi. A Fulbright Scholar, he earned his PhD in Economics from Claremont Graduate University, California. His current research spans health economics, crime, women's empowerment, and climate change.
Economic Times
30-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Citizens' rights to clean energy at centre of India's climate policy: Bhupender Yadav
Bhupender Yadav emphasized India's commitment to clean energy access for its citizens, acknowledging the nation's vulnerability to climate risks, ranking sixth in the Global Climate Risk Index 2025. India advocates for equity and differentiated responsibilities, urging developed nations to take the lead due to historical emissions. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads NEW DELHI: India's climate policy architecture focuses on securing the rights of 140 crore citizens to clean energy, Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav on Thursday the Annual Summit of the Confederation of Indian Industry, Yadav said India, like most countries, is also facing increasing vulnerabilities due to climate risks."India's heightened proximity to the challenges emerging from climate change can be ascertained by the fact that India ranks sixth in Global Climate Risk Index in 2025," he minister said India believes and advocates for the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective said these principles recognise that countries' efforts to combat climate change should be viewed in light of their contributions to total emissions and added that developed countries should shoulder primary responsibilities given their significant historical emissions."India realises that for emerging countries, climate considerations can cost them precious resources, slow their socio-economic growth aspirations and affect livelihood opportunities. As a major climate policy contributor and as the voice of global south, India continues to advocate for CBDR on multilateral forums," he said the government recently released Draft Framework of the Climate Finance Taxonomy to strengthen efforts to address climate change related risks and build India's climate detailing the methodology for classifying activities, projects and measures under adaptation and mitigation, the minister said, the taxonomy will contribute to India's climate commitments, strengthen its resilience building efforts and facilitate investment in adaptation said the government is also preparing the first National Adaptation Plan to enhance India's adaptative capacity, strengthen knowledge systems and reduce exposure to climate National Adaptation Plan will be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in a few months, he added.
Time of India
30-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Citizens' rights to clean energy at centre of India's climate policy: Bhupender Yadav
NEW DELHI: India's climate policy architecture focuses on securing the rights of 140 crore citizens to clean energy, Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav on Thursday said. Addressing the Annual Summit of the Confederation of Indian Industry, Yadav said India, like most countries, is also facing increasing vulnerabilities due to climate risks. "India's heightened proximity to the challenges emerging from climate change can be ascertained by the fact that India ranks sixth in Global Climate Risk Index in 2025," he added. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Pakistan: Unsold Sofas at Bargain Prices (View Current Prices) Sofas | Search Ads Search Now Undo The minister said India believes and advocates for the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Yadav said these principles recognise that countries' efforts to combat climate change should be viewed in light of their contributions to total emissions and added that developed countries should shoulder primary responsibilities given their significant historical emissions. Live Events "India realises that for emerging countries, climate considerations can cost them precious resources, slow their socio-economic growth aspirations and affect livelihood opportunities. As a major climate policy contributor and as the voice of global south, India continues to advocate for CBDR on multilateral forums," he said. Yadav said the government recently released Draft Framework of the Climate Finance Taxonomy to strengthen efforts to address climate change related risks and build India's climate resilience. By detailing the methodology for classifying activities, projects and measures under adaptation and mitigation, the minister said, the taxonomy will contribute to India's climate commitments, strengthen its resilience building efforts and facilitate investment in adaptation solutions. Yadav said the government is also preparing the first National Adaptation Plan to enhance India's adaptative capacity, strengthen knowledge systems and reduce exposure to climate risks. The National Adaptation Plan will be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in a few months, he added.
Business Recorder
25-04-2025
- Climate
- Business Recorder
Warning shot from nature
There were heavy hailstorms lashing out at Islamabad and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa last Wednesday. These were no ordinary hailstorms but perhaps the severest of their kind in recent history as they pelted golf ball size hail that wantonly smashed car windscreens and house windows, creating panic among the residents of the affected areas. Though the storm only lasted a little over half an hour in Islamabad it wrought considerable damage, especially to solar panels resulting in considerable financial loss to the owners. Children playing out in the open were also frightened and ran indoors to save themselves. After the storm subsided it looked like a battle field with rows of cars whose glasses were smashed and the streets and gardens littered with hail. The news of this unusual phenomenon soon spread to the four corners of the country as in this digital age stories with pictures of this hail storm were soon circulating on digital communication channels not only within Pakistan but across the world. This was another proof that Pakistan is in the line of fire of global weather change and in fact seems to be in the forefront of this dangerous global phenomenon. I wonder how many people realize that Pakistan is ranked as the 5th most vulnerable country to climate change, according to the Global Climate Risk Index. This means that the nerve shattering experience our friends in the capital city of the country endured last Wednesday was not a freak incident but in the coming days and months it might even intensify and the country as a whole might experience increasingly severe extreme climate events of which the Islamabad storm was just a trailer. This is one message that our government has repeatedly expressed at all concerned forums and emphasized the fact that global weather changes are not fueled by countries like Pakistan but other countries who should also bear the responsibility for their actions and help Pakistan in combating the serious challenges posed by weather change and consequent events like the one in Islamabad last week. Why are hailstones called by this name? Hailstones are called hailstones because the word 'hail' refers to the phenomenon of ice falling from the sky, and 'stones' refers to the individual pieces of ice that usually are formed like small balls of ice. In ancient times these were attributed to punishment by the gods for the ill deeds of the area residents targeted by these hailstones. Now we know differently even now this is retribution from nature on our way of life that harms nature and creates misbalance between different natural forces to create such a scenario. This is in spite of warnings from those in the knowhow. The storm recently in our capital city was severe but the world has also seen much more severe and destructive hail storms. It is interesting to note and perhaps be aware that the biggest hailstone ever recorded was found in the USA in the state of Dakota in July 2010; it was 8 inches in diameter and weighed 1.9375 pounds and had a circumference of 18.625 inches. Closer to home among the heaviest hailstones on record are also hailstones that fell in Bangladesh in 1986 and weighed about 2.25 pounds each as recorded by the Guinness Book of World Records. With increased global weather changes the hailstone activity has also intensified. The European severe storms laboratory documented a range of severe weather activities, including severe hailstorms in Tuscany, Italy and Andalusia. These hailstorms like the one in Islamabad caused damage to roofs, cars and crops .Other hailstorms in Colorado, the USA, brought property damage and floods. All this is nature striking back at our wanton destruction of the environment. Pakistan that has been a victim of floods causing immense damage to crops and property is now facing other natural disasters like hail storms which might even intensify in the coming days. Already we are facing unnaturally high temperatures which are not natural for this time of the year. While we cannot control the pollution in other countries we should very seriously control pollution at our end. If you wander out on a busy road you can see nearly every other vehicle and specially the heavier traffic leaving behind a tale trail of smoke and then there are numerous other contributors like those burning waste in the open and other such active contributors to pollution in our skies. Time to wake up. Hailstorm in Islamabad was the opening shot from nature. Let us not defy it any more. (The writer is a well-known columnist) Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Arab News
24-02-2025
- Business
- Arab News
IMF, Pakistan to open $1 billion climate financing talks today
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund mission will open discussions from today, Monday, for around $1 billion in climate financing for Pakistan, an adviser to the country's finance minister said. Khurram Schehzad told Reuters last week the IMF mission will visit from February 24-28 for a 'review and discussion' of climate resilience funding. The disbursement will take place under the Fund's Resilience and Sustainability Trust, created in 2022 to provide long-term concessional cash for climate-related spending, such as adaptation and transitioning to cleaner energy. Pakistan made a formal request in October last year for around $1 billion in funding from the IMF under the trust, to address the nation's vulnerability to climate change. Pakistan's Geo News TV had earlier reported that the IMF would issue the $1 billion for climate financing this week. The country's economy is on a long path to recovery after being stabilized under a $7 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility it secured late last year. 'Another IMF mission will arrive in Pakistan in the first week of March for a first review of that facility,' Schehzad said. The Global Climate Risk Index places Pakistan among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Floods in 2022, which scientists said were aggravated by global warming, affected at least 33 million people and killed more than 1,700. The country's economic struggles and high debt burden impinged its ability to respond to the disaster.
