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Zawya
29-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Greater Bay Area Residential Market Largely Stabilized, Although Sentiment in Q2 2025 Marred by Geopolitical Risks
Logistics Portfolio Investment Transactions Gain Attention, Neighborhood Retail Assets Becoming Sought After Greater Bay Area (GBA) cities continued to extend property-related easing policies from last year through the 1H 2025 period, with a focus on alleviating financial pressure on the supply side and supporting overall residential market sentiment However, transaction activity slowed from April 2025, impacted by uncertainties from the trade tariff war, with 1H 2025 GBA primary residential sales numbers growing slightly at 3% y-o-y Total investment volume in the GBA commercial real estate (CRE) market reached RMB24.7 billion in 1H 2025, accounting for more than 31% of the overall Chinese mainland investment market The industrial/logistics sector's share of total GBA CRE investment expanded notably with several large-sized logistics portfolio deals recorded, while neighbourhood retail malls also captured interest HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach Newswire – 29 July 2025 – Global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield today published its Greater Bay Area Residential and Commercial Real Estate Investment Market 1H 202 5 Review and 2H Outlook. Local governments across GBA cities continued the real estate policies introduced last year through the 1H 2025 period to continue to support a stable market recovery, including easing restrictions on the demand side and alleviating financial pressures on the supply side. From January to March, primary residential market transaction numbers and prices demonstrated growth. Regardless, market sentiment has been weakened since April by uncertainties surrounding the trade tariff war, again prompting potential home buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, and resulting in a pause in the upward momentum in home prices. GBA primary residential sales numbers through 1H 2025 recorded mild y-o-y growth of 3%. As for the CRE investment market (large-sized deals at >RMB100 million), property owners have adjusted their expectations. The industrial/ logistics sector accounted for more than 50% of the total GBA investment consideration in 1H 2025, with several large-sized logistics portfolio deals recorded. At the same time, the market has seen increasing interest in the neighborhood retail sector, where assets with stable rental yields are gaining investors' attention. We expect to see more high-quality retail assets transacted in the second half of the year. GBA Residential Market Following the Central Government's reiteration of the need to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery in its 2025 work report, both the Central Government and GBA local governments continued to extend market-easing real estate policies from last year through the 1H 2025 period. Measures on the demand side, such as "four cancellations" and "four reductions" were extended. Authorities also focused on alleviating financial pressures on the supply side, aiming to strengthen overall market sentiment and boost buyer confidence. Key initiatives included promoting the launch of special-purpose bonds to reclaim and acquire idle land and unsold residential units. Notably, Guangzhou became the first Tier-1 city in the country to fully abolish the "three restrictions" in housing policy. The GBA primary residential market showed resilience in the Q1 period despite being the traditional off-season. Monthly transaction numbers from January to March expanded on the same period last year. However, starting from April, greater uncertainties surrounding the trade tariff war weighed on overall economic performance and dampened residential market sentiment. In turn, more potential home buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach. New home sales in April fell by 16% from March, while May and June remained largely stable. The GBA primary residential market recorded approximately 137,000 transactions in the 1H 2025 period, up slightly at 3% y-o-y, with Tier-1 cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen showing significant growth. However, comparing with the significant recovery following last year's introduction of aggressive easing policies, the 1H 2025 total transaction number was down 26% from the 2H 2024 level (Chart 1). Chart 1: GBA First-Hand Residential Sales Source: CREIS, Cushman & Wakefield In terms of home prices, primary market prices are more swayed by the quality level of newly launched projects. First-hand residential prices in the nine GBA mainland cities showed mixed performances in 1H 2025. Developers generally adopted more realistic pricing strategies to attract buyers, actively offloading inventory to improve cash flow. For secondary home prices, which better reflect current underlying trends, and using Shenzhen as an example, the Cushman & Wakefield Shenzhen mid-to-high-end secondary home price index strengthened by 4.0% from the Q4 2024 level. However, as market sentiment turned more cautious from April, overall prices experienced downward pressure and recorded a q-o-q decline of 4.4% in Q2, bringing the year-to-date adjustment to a modest -0.5% (Chart 2). Chart 2: Shenzhen Mid-to-High-End Secondary Home Price Index Source: Cushman & Wakefield Alva To, Cushman & Wakefield's Vice President, Greater China & Head of Consulting, Greater China said, "With central and local governments continuing to relax demand-side policies, and with the central government actively promoting the development of "Good Housing," we expect pent-up demand from both first-home buyers and upgraders to be further released. Through the past six months, local governments have accelerated the implementation of special-purpose bonds to reclaim and acquire idle land and unsold units, helping to alleviate developers' financial pressures and promote supply-demand balance in the housing market. These efforts should also support potential homebuyers' confidence and, in turn, a stable recovery in the GBA residential market. In the 1H 2025 period, new home sales numbers stood out in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, indicating that high-quality residential units, in prime locations in first-tier cities, at reasonable prices continue to be sought after despite market volatility. "However, uncertainties surrounding trade tariff policies contributed to weaker sentiment in the GBA residential market in Q2, and the restoration of market confidence is expected to take time. We believe that, even if China-U.S. trade tensions show sign of easing in 2H 2025, lingering uncertainty may keep buyers cautious through the Q3 period, and residential transaction numbers are not likely to strengthen significantly. Nonetheless, fundamental housing demand from first-time homebuyers and upgraders is likely to provide continuous support to the GBA residential market. We forecast average monthly new home sales to record around 27,000 to 28,000 units in 2H 2025, bringing the full-year 2025 transaction number to approximately 300,000 units. Meanwhile, home prices are still facing downwards pressure, with a full-year price correction estimated in the range of a 0%–5% decline." GBA CRE Investment Market The GBA CRE property investment market remained resilient in the 1H 2025 period, with total investment volume reaching RMB24.7 billion, marking a 108% increase compared to the same period last year, and accounting for around 31% of total investment volume in the Chinese mainland (see Chart 3). Among the 35 transactions, 31 were at less than RMB1 billion, reflecting that investors remain cautious on big-ticket transactions. Chart 3: CRE Investment Transactions in the GBA (2020 - 1H 2025) Source: Cushman & Wakefield By property type, industrial and logistics assets accounted for the largest share of total CRE property investment in the GBA by transaction value in 1H 2025, with 14 related deals making up more than half of the total investment volume (see Chart 4). Within the industrial and logistics transactions, Tier-2 cities including Zhuhai, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, and Huizhou, recorded a combined transaction volume of RMB9.6 billion, comprising both logistics portfolios and individual warehouse deals. Dongguan, classified as a Tier-2 city, stands out as a top choice for logistics investment due to its strategic location, making it the most desirable logistics hub within the GBA and a key focus for investors. Investment interest in the neighborhood retail sector also continued to heat up in the 1H period. Assets with stable rental yields and mature operations are favored by the market, attracting a diverse range of buyers. A total of nine retail sector transactions were recorded in the GBA in 1H 2025. Chart 4: Share of Asset Type in the GBA CRE Investment Market (by Transaction Volume) Source: Cushman & Wakefield Charli Chan, Cushman & Wakefield's Deputy Managing Director, Capital Markets, China commented, "Looking ahead to 2H 2025, among the various types of investment properties, we believe the logistics and commercial sectors will continue to outperform. With the ongoing expansion of cross-border e-commerce, demand for logistics assets has remained strong and continues to attract investor attention. However, the GBA's warehouse market is expected to see a heavy new supply pipeline over the next two to three years, which will likely lead to a rise in vacancy rates and exert downward pressure on rents. Moreover, since the onset of the China–U.S. trade tensions, market sentiment has become more volatile. Logistics asset owners have become more pragmatic, allowing for greater room in price negotiations. This has helped narrow the expectation gap between buyers and sellers, potentially facilitating more transactions in logistics and warehouse facilities. We believe institutional and long-term investors will seize this opportunity to hunt for value. On the other hand, we expect to see more transactions involving high-quality commercial assets in the 2H 2025 period. Benefiting from the spillover of Hong Kong residents' spending power and a shift toward mid- to lower-end consumption, well-performing shopping centers and community retail malls are gaining market traction and interest from potential investors. However, mall owners in Tier-1 cities tend to be more reluctant to sell, whereas owners in Tier-2 cities are more pragmatic, making retail projects in mature communities the preferred investment sectors for insurance companies and real estate funds." Please click here to download photos. Photo 1: Alva To, Cushman & Wakefield's Vice President, Greater China & Head of Consulting, Greater China (Left), and Charli Chan, Cushman & Wakefield's Deputy Managing Director of Capital Markets, China (Right) Hashtag: #Cushman&Wakefield The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 52,000 employees in nearly 400 offices and 60 countries. In Greater China, a network of 23 offices serves local markets across the region. In 2023, the firm reported revenue of $9.5 billion across its core services of valuation, consulting, project & development services, capital markets, project & occupier services, industrial & logistics, retail and others. It also receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture and commitment to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), sustainability and more. For additional information, visit or follow us on LinkedIn ( Cushman & Wakefield
CNBC
30-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
We're seeing a bifurcation of commercial real estate, says Fortress Investment Group Vice Chairman
Tim Sloan, Fortress Investment Vice Chairman and Co-Head of Global Real Estate, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk private credit opportunities, commercial real estate, the investing landscape, and more.
Qatar Tribune
21-05-2025
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Qatar's real estate sector resilient, says minister
QNA Doha Minister of Municipality and Chairman of Qatari Diar Real Estate Investment Company HE Abdullah bin Hamad bin Abdullah Al Attiyah emphasised that real estate remains among the resilient economic sectors despite the challenges, considering that understanding local culture and consumer behaviour is the basis for successful real estate investment. During his participation in a high-level panel of discussion on 'Global Real Estate Horizons: Navigating Growth and Demand' at Qatar Economic Forum 2025, the minister noted that 'real estate is not measured solely by quantity, but also by quality and location'. He considered real estate investment to be viewed as owning a work of art, requiring knowledge of when, where, and how to invest. He added that real estate is affected by the economy, but it remains a means of protecting wealth and hedging against currency fluctuations. 'Even when interest rates rise, people don't stop living there, which drives growth in the rental market,' he emphasized, adding that demand for real estate remains strong despite the challenges. He pointed to the massive tourism project in the Simaisma area, which includes an entertainment city called the Land of Legends in Qatar. He pointed out that the IMD World Smart Cities Ranking placed Qatar first in infrastructure, stressing that this constitutes a strong foundation for expanding the tourism sector, particularly family tourism, in line with the country's vision. The minister addressed the international real estate investment market, saying that capital is available, but it must be directed selectively and thoughtfully. He noted that cross-border investments registered a 57 percent increase in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting investor caution, not a lack of capital. He discussed global real estate transaction figures, noting that it showed signs of recovery. The value of transactions in the United States reached $93 billion (up 37 percent), in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa $55 billion (up 41 percent), and in Asia $36 billion, which was up 20 percent compared to 2024. He highlighted that artificial intelligence represents an exceptional breakthrough, noting that the Middle East is best prepared to invest in it, thanks to the availability of modern infrastructure, the world's cheapest energy, and advanced data systems. In response to questions from the audience about regional competition in the entertainment and tourism sectors, he stressed that Gulf countries do not view each other as competitors, but rather as a single, integrated system, adding that Gulf states complement each other. He noted that, when they build, they do not create one amusement park next to another. Rather, they look at what has been achieved and build on it. He cited the tourism coordination council, and that all of them benefit from the boom in Saudi Arabia. He also stressed that Dubai was a partner, not a competitor. A tourist visits Qatar, then heads to Dubai or Saudi Arabia, and this was complementary. He pointed out that Qatar was one of the safest countries in the world, with high-quality schools. Qatar is building on these values to provide a different and safer lifestyle, and this is what Qatar is showcasing in its smart cities. Concluding his remarks, the minister addressed Qatar National Vision 2030, saying that the country's urban intersections are among the most prepared globally for the use of artificial intelligence. He emphasized that the Gulf countries, particularly Qatar, have a unique opportunity to lead the use of artificial intelligence in urban planning and smart cities, enhancing the sustainability of development and accelerating its pace.
Qatar Tribune
21-05-2025
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Real estate future lies in adapting to AI, data centre sustainability
QNA DOHA Participants in the Qatar Economic Forum 2025, powered by Bloomberg, discussed the future of the real estate sector amid global economic shifts, technological advancements, and changing patterns of investment and residential demand. During a panel discussion titled 'Global Real Estate Horizons: Navigating Growth and Demand,' participants emphasized that real estate will remain a key pillar of global investment. However, its success will depend on investors' ability to adapt to transformations and shift flexibly toward emerging sectors such as healthcare, data centers, and sustainable energy. In this context, CEO of Related Companies Jeff T. Blau said that venture capital is still available but needs to be allocated more selectively. He noted that cross-border investments dropped by 57 percent in Q1 2025, reflecting global caution. However, he also pointed to signs of clear recovery in major markets. Blau added that in the US alone, real estate transactions reached USD 93 billion in Q1 2025, a 37 percent increase compared to the same period last year. In Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), the figure reached USD 55 billion, a 41 percent increase. In Asia, it stood at USD 36 billion, up by 20 percent. He said that investing in data centers and modern office spaces has become a priority driven by the rise of artificial intelligence, but warned that this opportunity is time-sensitive and must be seized wisely. For his part, CapitaLand Investment Group CEO Chee Koon Lee said that regional integration among Arabian Gulf countries is a key attraction, noting that tourists often travel between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai as a single destination. Lee also stressed that the real estate environment in the Gulf, especially in terms of safety, quality of education, and infrastructure, constitutes a long-term draw. He added that Gulf nations possess advanced digital infrastructure.
