Latest news with #Godec
CNBC
24-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Home price hikes are slowing more than expected
Rising supply and slowing demand in the housing market are finally causing prices to cool off, and the weakness is accelerating. Home prices nationally rose just 2.7% in April compared with the previous year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday. That is down from a 3.4% annual increase in March and is the smallest gain in nearly two years. The report is slightly back-dated, as it is a three-month running average of prices ending in April. Other more current readings of the market, such as one from Parcl Labs, shows prices nationally are now flat compared with a year ago. S&P Case-Shiller found the deceleration in prices was taking hold across the 10- and 20-city composites its index measures. Both are now substantially below their recent peaks. In addition, much of the annual increase in the April reading occurred in just the past six months, meaning prices got a boost from the spring market rather than showing up throughout the year. "What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor," said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. New York saw the biggest increase in prices, with a 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 6% and Detroit at 5.5%. This is a shift from the first years of the pandemic, when the Sun Belt was seeing huge demand and big price gains. Prices in those previously hot markets are now falling. Both Tampa and Dallas turned negative, down 2.2% and 0.2% respectively. San Francisco prices were basically flat, and both Phoenix and Miami eked out gains of just over 1%. Higher mortgage rates, which shot over 7% in April and have settled back just under that mark since then, are keeping potential monthly payments near generational highs and pricing out significant pools of buyers, especially first-timers. That share dropped to just 30% of May sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers historically make up 40% of the market. The supply of homes for sale is rising sharply, but is still below pre-pandemic levels. Just 6% of sellers are at risk of selling at a loss, according to a new report from Redfin. That is slightly higher than a year ago, but still historically low. While prices are certainly weakening, they are nowhere close to being at risk of the major declines last seen following the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession over a decade ago. "Housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared," said Godec.
Epoch Times
28-05-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
S&P Home Price Index Rises 3.4 Percent in March Amid Tight Affordability
A key housing indicator rose by 3.4 percent year over year in March, a 'slight decrease' from the 4 percent annual gain in February, S&P Global said in a May 27 On a month-over-month basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index registered a 0.8 percent increase in March before seasonal adjustments. The index 'Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025,' said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. The housing market is shifting from 'mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery,' he said. 'Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place,' he said. Among the 20 metros tracked, New York City registered the highest annual gain in March, with prices up by 8 percent. Chicago and Cleveland were the next highest. Related Stories 5/21/2025 5/21/2025 Tampa was the only metro to register a year-over-year drop, with prices dipping by 2.16 percent. The second worst-performing metro was Dallas, which saw a marginal 0.19 percent annual gain. According to Godec, while housing affordability continues to remain 'severely constrained,' affordability did not worsen during the early part of this year because borrowing costs stabilized. 'Mortgage rates hovered in the mid-6 percent range throughout March, keeping monthly payment burdens near multi-decade highs relative to incomes,' he said. 'This continued to weigh on buyer demand.' However, he said, 'persistent supply shortages helped counteract the headwinds. Many existing homeowners remained reluctant to sell and give up low pandemic-era mortgage rates, and new construction activity stayed limited—a combination that kept inventory levels extremely tight.' In a May 27 However, sales lagged during the month, resulting in the share of listings offering price cuts hitting the highest March level in six years. This trend continued in April, with 25 percent of homes listed on Zillow receiving a price cut, the post said. Buyers 'now have more homes to choose from. There are 1.2 million homes for sale in April—the most since August 2020,' Zillow said. 'A price correction is expected to result in a modest recovery in sales over the coming year.' Possible Trend Toward Affordability Housing affordability could improve this year as home prices and mortgage rates potentially decline. Redfin is predicting a 1 percent dip in prices by the end of 2025, citing higher inventory and fewer people interested in buying properties, the brokerage said in a May 22 'It's a buyer's market. That means homebuyers in many parts of the country are able to successfully negotiate prices down, especially for fixer-uppers and/or homes that aren't located in desirable neighborhoods,' it said. 'The longer the market is slow, the more sellers will come to terms with the fact that they can't sell their homes for what they could have at the height of the market.' Together with the 1 percent expected dip in home prices, wages are projected to keep rising at the current rate of roughly 4 percent, contributing to improving affordability. As for mortgage rates, the average weekly 'Mortgage rates inched up this week but continue to remain lower than one year ago,' Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, 'With more inventory for buyers to choose from than the last few years, purchase application activity continues to hold up.' Moving forward, rates are expected to drop to 6.1 percent by the end of this year, Fannie Mae said in a May 21 With lower home prices and mortgage rates predicted by year-end, many buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines could re-enter the housing market.
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Rise in US Home Prices Slowed in March as Buyers Pulled Back
(Bloomberg) -- Home-price gains in the US slowed in March as listings climbed without a corresponding uptick in buyer demand. UAE's AI University Aims to Become Stanford of the Gulf NYC's War on Trash Gets a Glam Squad Pacific Coast Highway to Reopen Near Malibu After January Fires A national gauge of prices was up 3.4% from a year earlier, according to data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. That was smaller than the 4% annual increase in February. The run-up in prices since the pandemic, and mortgage rates hovering near 7%, have squeezed affordability for house hunters, pushing many to the sidelines. At the same time, inventory is rising in many parts of the country. And with fewer eager buyers in the market, sellers are more willing to offer concessions. In areas where supplies remain tight, buyers are still getting dragged into bidding wars. Among 20 major cities, New York had the biggest annual price gain in March, at 8%. Prices were up 6.5% in Chicago and 5.9% in Cleveland. In places where prices fell, Tampa, Florida, had the largest decline, at 2.2%. While annual price growth continued to decelerate nationally, 'the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025,' Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. Eighteen of the 20 cities in the index had monthly increases before seasonal adjustment, signaling that price increases were widespread across the country. 'This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery,' Godec said. Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI Inside the First Stargate AI Data Center How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol AI Is Helping Executives Tackle the Dreaded Post-Vacation Inbox ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Home prices kept growing in January, but there are signs of a slowing market ahead
Home prices rose in January, but the pace of that growth slowed, reflecting a softening in the real estate market in the back half of 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, a closely watched price benchmark, jumped 4.1% from a year earlier, just ahead of December's 4% gain, according to new data released Tuesday. Home prices in 20 metro areas rose 4.7% year over year, compared with a 4.5% annual increase in December. But much of the gains nationwide came in the first half of 2024. In the second half, home prices fell slightly, on average. 'Rising mortgage rates throughout the year elevated monthly payment burdens, which, combined with already high home prices, pushed affordability to multi-decade lows in many regions,' Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. 'This likely contributed to subdued activity in the back half of the year, with both buyers and sellers exercising caution.' Home prices rose the fastest annually in the New York metro area, which saw a 7.7% annual gain. The Chicago and Boston regions saw appreciation of 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively. The Tampa area was the only region to post an annual decline. There, home prices dropped 1.5%. The second half of 2024, however, brought price declines to more markets. In that time period, only four of the 20 cities the index tracks — New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and Boston — saw any price growth. San Francisco had the steepest six-month decline, with prices down 3.4%. In Tampa, they dropped 3.2%. Read more: 2025 housing market: Is it a good time to buy a house? Mortgage rates stayed above 6% for all of last year, while home prices remained at or near record highs in much of the country. Prospective homebuyers also had little inventory to choose from in many regions. Those factors combined made 2024 the slowest year for home sales in nearly 30 years. Now, inventory levels are rising in much of the country, and home prices have fallen slightly from record highs. 'The current cycle reinforces the value of real estate as a long-duration asset, but also highlights how sensitive home prices are to changes in financing conditions and buyer affordability,' Godec said in the statement. Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter Sign in to access your portfolio
