Latest news with #GovernmentFinanceStatistics
Irish Times
19-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Corporation tax surge a sign investors have not been put off by economic uncertainty just yet
We've all heard the stories about corporation tax , how the boom in tax receipts won't last, and how the Government would be crazy to rely on windfall taxes to fund day-to-day spending. For the moment, at least, the gravy train keeps rolling, as shown in the exchequer returns for June which were published a fortnight ago. Now we have some more detail on what's happening thanks to the Government Finance Statistics for the first three months of this year published by the Central Statistics Office on Friday. As is often the case with statistics such as these, the absolute numbers are important but it's really the change that is relevant. Those changes were almost universally positive for Ireland between January and March. At the end the quarter, total Government revenue stood at €30.9 billion, the CSO said. That was €2 billion ahead of the same time last year driven by an increase in taxes of €1.5 billion and social contributions of about €500 million. Much of the tax increase came about because of a rise in, you guessed it, corporation tax. As Grant Thornton's Peter Vale pointed out, 'a key component' of the €1.5 billion increase in taxes was corporation tax, which was 'up 25 per cent over the prior year after excluding the Apple tax case-related payments. While corporation tax figures remain volatile, they continue to trend upwards,' he added. It's a movie we've seen several times at this stage, but Vale spotted a few other wrinkles in the data that are worth noting. Namely, the sharp jump in income from capital gains tax (CGT) . CGT receipts jumped 64 per cent year-on-year. That's a big rise in anyone's language. While it's true that CGT can be lumpy – all it takes is one or two big transactions to skew the numbers – it does indicate that people are still doing deals. US president Donald Trump made his 'liberation day' tariffs announcement on April 2nd, so its impact is not included in the CSO data. Yet it didn't exactly come out of the blue. He had telegraphed the move for weeks ahead of time. Clearly not everyone has been put off by the 'heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty' that practically every company or politician seems to be citing these days. Whether that will last is another question entirely.
Business Recorder
19-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
PPI framework to be developed by end-June 2026: PBS
ISLAMABAD: The Producer Price index (PPI) framework will be developed by end of the current fiscal year (end-June 2026) and in-house work with the collaboration of the provinces has been initiated. This was revealed by sources in the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) to Business Recorder. The IMF in its 11th September 2024 document titled Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation and request for an Extended Arrangement noted that it would provide a technical assistance to PBS given that 'important shortcomings remain in the source data available for sectors accounting for around a third of GDP, while there are issues with the granularity and reliability of the Government Finance Statistics. Q3FY25: Pakistan economy posts 2.4% growth The authorities are prioritizing addressing these weaknesses, supported by Fund TA on the GFS and a new PPI index and the PBS will soon begin fieldwork for four major surveys ahead of the upcoming NA rebasing to FY26.' According to a source in PBS, through PPI the entire price chain starting from farm gate/factory gate to retail outlets will become part of the country's statistical system. PPI will determine the cost of production at the factory gate/farm gate and the price paid by the end consumer. At present PBS monitors wholesale and retail price of products but through this index actual production cost at factory gate/farm gate will be noted. 'Through this index the production price received by farmers, prices at factory gate of locally produced goods and cost of imported goods at the port will be monitored,' the source said adding that through this Index it would be easy for the government to identify the role of middlemen and hoarders the source further stated adding that 'if there are discrepancies or unusual increase or decrease in the cost of production and the end consumer price the Government can easily detect the role of middleman by monitoring the trade and transport margin.' The PBS has already started work on change of base year of National Accounts from 2015-16 to 2025-26 – the selection of the base year made by the governing council of PBS that the national accounts be rebased after every 10 years. The PBS source further noted that the new base will be implemented by 2027-28. Theoretically a base year should be relatively calm and stable year. The PBS is the National Statistical Organization (NSO) and follows 2008 System of compiling National Accounts which are well documented and vetted by the World Bank, the source added. The PBS intends to will launch fieldwork for four major surveys (including the integrated agricultural census, labor force survey, and household integrated economic survey) in July 2024, from which preliminary results are expected to become available during FY25. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The Star
22-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Don't downplay seriousness of national debt
Prime Minister and Finance Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim must cease using selective framing and misrepresenting concepts to downplay the seriousness of the national debt or to claim undue credit. The public deserves transparency, especially amid rising inflation, an increasing cost of living, and growing economic hardship. Urgently needed are concrete, revenue-generating economic policies, not a continued reliance on tax increases and subsidy reductions that add financial pressure on the rakyat. Recently, the Prime Minister stated that Malaysia's new borrowings have decreased annually, from RM100bil in 2022 to RM80bil in 2024. He also claimed that consistent efforts have been made since 2022 to reduce the fiscal deficit from 5.5% to a projected 3.8% this year. However, this narrative attempts to obscure the actual increase in overall national debt by focusing only on the decline in new borrowing. The claim of a RM20bil drop in new debt over three years does not reflect the full picture. According to the latest fiscal and debt data released by Bank Negara Malaysia, the national debt continues to rise. Official reports, such as the Government Finance Statistics and the Economic Outlook Report, show that federal government debt exceeded RM1.17tril at the end of 2023. This figure rose to RM1.6324tril in 2024 and remained high at RM1.2476tril as of the first quarter of 2025. These numbers directly contradict the Prime Minister's claims and reveal a clear attempt to present a misleading version of the national debt status by selectively using statistics. National debt cannot be assessed by focusing solely on new borrowings. The total size of the debt, the debt-to-GDP ratio, refinancing obligations, and interest liabilities are all key structural factors that must be addressed. Suggesting that borrowing slightly less this year indicates meaningful fiscal improvement underestimates the public's understanding and concern. What matters most to the people is the actual debt burden carried by the country, not how the government chooses to interpret the data. If the debt continues to grow and interest payments increase, then the Prime Minister's remarks amount to self-deception and risk eroding public trust. Despite repeated assurances of fiscal reform and financial discipline, the Unity Government has yet to demonstrate genuine progress in reducing national debt or budget deficits over the past two years. Instead, it has expanded the Sales and Services Tax (SST) and reduced subsidies, effectively shifting the fiscal burden onto the public while failing to rein in government expenditure. Balancing the national budget should not come at the expense of ordinary Malaysians. The real crisis today lies in inflation and the rising cost of living. Yet the government has failed to introduce any substantial, revenue-boosting economic policy or reform plan. What the country truly needs are forward-looking policies that raise incomes, encourage investment, and create employment opportunities. Fiscal reforms must not be used as an excuse to add to the public's burden. Malaysians do not need more political packaging. What is urgently required are real, effective solutions that provide relief and restore confidence. Saw Yee Fung MCA Youth Secretary General
Focus Malaysia
22-06-2025
- Business
- Focus Malaysia
MCA baffled by PMX's claim of RM20b national debt cut when it has surged 11.4% under Madani rule
PRIME Minister and Finance Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim must stop using selective framing and misrepresenting concepts to downplay the seriousness of the national debt situation or to claim undue credit. The public deserves transparency, particularly in the face of rising inflation, a soaring cost of living and growing economic hardship. What is urgently needed are concrete, revenue-generating economic policies, not a continued dependence on tax increases and subsidy reductions that place additional financial pressure on the rakyat. Recently, PMX stated that Malaysia's new borrowings have decreased annually from RM100 bil in 2022 to RM80 bil in 2024. He also claimed that consistent efforts have been made since 2022 to reduce the fiscal deficit from 5.5% to a projected 3.8% this year. However, such narrative attempts to obscure the actual increase in overall national debt by focusing only on the decline in new borrowing. Borrowing drops bit debt level surges The claim of a RM20 bil drop in new debt over three years does not reflect the full picture. According to the latest fiscal and debt data released by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the national debt continues to rise. Official reports such as the Government Finance Statistics and the Economic Outlook Report show that federal government debt exceeded RM1.17 tril as of end-2023. This figure rose to RM1.63 tril in 2024 and remained high at RM1.25 tril as of 1Q 2025. These numbers directly contradict PMX's claims and reveal a clear attempt to present a misleading version of the national debt status by selectively using statistics. National debt cannot be assessed by focusing solely on new borrowings. The total size of the debt, the debt-to-GDP ratio, re-financing obligations and interest liabilities are all key structural factors that must be addressed. Suggesting that borrowing slightly less this year indicates meaningful fiscal improvement underestimates the public's understanding and concern. Self-deception What matters most to the people is the actual debt burden carried by the country – not how the government chooses to interpret the data. If the debt continues to grow and interest payments increase, then PMX's remarks amount to self-deception and risk eroding public trust. Perdana Menteri Anwar Ibrahim berkata kerajaan berjaya mengurangkan jumlah hutang negara sebanyak RM20 bilion sejak mengambil alih pentadbiran pada tahun 2022. Beliau yang juga menteri kewangan berkata bermula dengan hutang berjumlah RM100 bilion, kerajaan kini menyasarkan… — Malaysiakini (BM) (@mkini_bm) June 20, 2025 Editor's Note: Kindly read comments by man-on-the-street Malaysians to the Malaysiakini post. Despite repeated assurances of fiscal reform and financial discipline, the Madani government has yet to demonstrate genuine progress in reducing national debt or budget deficits over the past two years. Instead, it has expanded the Sales and Services Tax (SST) and reduced subsidies, effectively shifting the fiscal burden onto the public while failing to rein in government expenditure. Balancing the national budget should not come at the expense of ordinary Malaysians. The real crisis today lies in inflation and the rising cost of living. Yet the government has failed to introduce any substantial, revenue-boosting economic policy or reform plan. What the country truly needs are forward-looking policies that raise incomes, encourage investment and create employment opportunities. Fiscal reforms must not be used as an excuse to add to the public's burden. Malaysians do not need more political packaging. What is urgently required are real, effective solutions that provide relief and restore confidence. – June 22, 2025 A PhD holder in theoretical economics from the Perking University and a business development actuary, Saw Yee Fung is the MCA Youth secretary general. The views expressed are solely of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Business Recorder
07-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
100bps cut in policy rate
EDITORIAL: On 5 May the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the discount rate by 100 basis points — to 11 percent — a decline that was, for a change, correctly forecast by a host of analysts. The reduction is, as per the statement, attributable to the decline in core inflation, non-food and non-energy, from 8.2 percent in March to 7.4 percent in April — a decline of 0.8 percent in a single month. However, the MPC's rationale cannot be taken as a yardstick for future decisions, given that a decline of 0.4 percent in core inflation in March 2025 did not merit a reduction of even 25 basis points (February core inflation was 7.8 percent to 8.2 percent in March), which is the reason behind inaccurate forecasting by analysts. Be that as it may, consumer price index reached an enviable 0.3 percent in April compared to 0.7 percent in March, a decline that has been the source of much crowing by the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister, though 2 percent inflation is globally regarded as a desirable target as it keeps the wheels of industry well oiled. There is, however, evidence that inflation data is being manipulated, a statistic that directly impacts on the performance of the economic team leaders. This is revealed by an obvious miscalculation by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in its calculation of the sensitive price index (SPI) for the week ending 30 April 2025: a decline in petroleum prices of negative 11.62 percent has been noted in the SPI though there was no reduction as per the Prime Minister who publicly stated that even though the international petroleum prices had declined yet the government had decided not to pass it onto the public by raising the petroleum levy to keep prices stable — money that would be diverted for Balochistan development. The growth projection by the MPS has not been revised downward and remains at 2.5 to 3.5 percent irrespective of the fact that subsequent to the Trump tariffs as well as the escalating conflict in the Middle East, growth estimates have been downgraded globally. Reports also indicate that the staff-level agreement reached on the first review under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme was mainly due to the Fund staff's acknowledgement that the growth projection has to be revised downward. It is worth noting that the October 2024 document uploaded on the IMF website notes that 'important shortcomings remain in the source data available for sectors accounting for around a third of GDP while there are issues with the granularity and reliability of the Government Finance Statistics (GFS). The authorities are prioritising addressing these weaknesses, supported by Fund Technical Assistance on the GFS and a new PPI index.' The decline in the discount rate has been a long-standing demand of the business community, mainly large-scale manufacturing sector (LSM), that routinely borrows working capital with the interest charged on the borrowing defined as an input cost. From 1 July 2023 to 12 April 2024 credit to the private sector was 106 billion rupees and rose to 692 billion rupees in the comparable period this year; however, LSM growth declined from negative 0.45 percent (July-February last year) to negative 1.9 percent in the comparable period this year. This has led economists to conclude that the rise in private sector credit has been diverted away from manufacturing and into the stock market. Thus, a decline from 22 percent discount rate effective end June 2024 to 12 percent did little to render LSM growth on a positive trajectory, and it is doubtful if another percentage decline would propel growth upward. In addition, it is also relevant to note that Pakistan has one of the highest discount rates in the region (India 6 percent, Sri Lanka 8 percent, Bangladesh 10 percent), which explains why our products are uncompetitive. The MPS lightly touches on two negative indicators, lightly because it then proceeds to give it a positive twist. First, a current account surplus sourced to a rise in remittances; however, the trade deficit in March was 2183 million dollars against 3388 million dollars in April or a deficit rise of 1205 million dollars. And secondly, while acknowledging that net financial inflows (the capital account component of the balance of payments position) have remained weak though the more accurate definition would have been that net inflows have been negative yet the MPC bafflingly notes that 'on the back of the expected realisation of planned official inflows' that incidentally have yet to materialise, 'the MPC expects foreign exchange reserves to rise to 14 billion dollars.' It must be borne in mind that the man who chairs the MPC, the Governor State Bank of Pakistan, recently admitted that 16 billion dollars are planned as rollovers in the current fiscal year in which case our reserves would be 2 billion dollars less than the rollovers — not a position of strength. Therefore, the decision to reduce the discount rate by 100 basis points can be sourced to requests by the PML-N government, with a long history of linking the discount rate to LSM growth, to the Fund staff to allow the MPC to reduce the rate in an effort to jumpstart the economy. It was only after concurrence was secured that the adjustment was likely made. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
