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Asharq Al-Awsat
3 days ago
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Araghchi, the Bomb and the Iranian Train
The United States has no interest in resorting to the military solution to resolve the dispute with Iran over its nuclear program. The use of force in the Middle East revives memories of costly experiences. President Donald Trump himself does not believe that the military solution is viable, unless all other options to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear dream run out. Iran, in turn, says it has no such dream. However, despite its repeated denials, the nuclear file continues to return to the spotlight. The lack of trust between the US and Iran is not unusual. Both countries have traded direct and indirect blows over the past decades, deepening this crisis of trust. The current Iran always views the US or 'Great Satan' as the top danger. It is aware that the US is a major power that is capable of upending balances of power in most parts of the world. Meanwhile, the US views Iran as the main backer of terrorism in the Middle East and it has accused it of having a hand in every attempt to destabilize the region. Trump's return to the White House has enflamed the crisis with Iran. He is connected to two major events in Iran's recent history: Washington's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Trump has opened the door for negotiations with Iran, but with the constant reminder that it will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, even if this ultimately means resorting to military force to prevent it from doing so. The current nuclear crisis with Iran has entered a new phase in wake of the latest International Atomic Energy Agency report that accuses Tehran of speeding up its rate of uranium enrichment. Trump's repeated statement that Tehran will not be allowed to acquire nuclear arms is accompanied by repeated signs from him that an agreement is possible with it, and soon. The US has no interest in sliding into a military confrontation with Iran. It also has no interest in Israel taking the reins in such a mission with unpredictable repercussions. In all likelihood, Iran, which has long avoided slipping into a direct confrontation with the US, will continue to walk the same path in avoiding such a costly clash. Moreover, Iran today is in no shape to become embroiled in such a test of force. The recent changes in the Middle East have not at all been in Iran's favor and they have denied it some of its most valuable cards. On this note, we have to wonder what Abbas Araghchi will feel when his plane approaches Beirut airport. Will he sense that Beirut has changed or that the region has changed, along with Iran's position in it? He knows that his mission these days is very difficult, if not impossible. The world is calling on Iran to reassure it, while he responds that it should reassure Iran instead. Araghchi is aware of what happened to the Iranian train in recent months. Syria has hopped off and there is nothing that would lead anyone to believe that it would jump back on again. What changed in Syria was not just the name of its president, but an entire way in how it treats the Syrian people, its neighbors and the world. Damascus ousted the 'way of the resistance' that the Assad regime had long relied on. The US is no longer viewed as an enemy. Syria is now being desired and is in demand. Its advice and demands are also being heard. Syria no longer hosts the officers of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps as part of the plan Qassem Soleimani spent years in drawing up, especially after he successfully persuaded Putin's Russia in saving the Assad regime from collapse. Syria no longer hosts the headquarters of Palestinian 'resistance' organizations and offers its leaders safe havens. These groups are no longer welcome in Syria, while Lebanon's Hezbollah is now viewed as an enemy. Lebanon has also changed. The naming of presidents is no longer in the hands of Hezbollah commanders. The current president of the republic was elected after vowing to achieve state monopoly over arms. The same can be said of the current prime minister. The current rule in Lebanon is based on the full implementation of United Nations Security Council resolution 1701. Any delay is full of dangers and risks wasting opportunities for reconstruction and reestablishing stability. Araghchi knows that the current nuclear crisis erupted at a very difficult time. The changes in Syria are comparable to the changes that took place in Iraq when Saddam Hussein was overthrown. Another Iraq and another Syria. Iran has not been able to make up such losses. Iraq did not hop off the Iranian train in wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and its ensuing wars, but it managed to remain outside of the storm and avoid any adventures. The Houthi missiles are not enough compensation for Iran's losses. One must pause at the situation in Gaza. The catastrophe there has not bounds and there are no limits to Israel's savagery. Hamas fought long and hard and paid hefty prices, but today, it has no other practical alternative than to seek shelter in Witkoff's proposal. Araghchi is aware of what happened to the Iranian train in wake of the Al-Aqsa operation. He knows that the countries of the region encourage building bridges with his own. Perhaps he even knows that accepting a lesser role for his country is much better than risking exposing it and its regime to a direct clash with the American military machine.
Asharq Al-Awsat
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Iran... Pragmatism after the ‘Flood'
Iranian commentators appear to be relaxed about the prospects of the ongoing negotiations with the United States. Some have implied that a honeymoon period is possible with the 'Great Satan' if its intentions are sincere. They speak of a mutual need. Iran needs an agreement that would end the cycles of sanctions and accusations, while the American administration needs an achievement of the size of an agreement over Iran's nuclear deal. They say that Washington has something to offer Tehran and vice versa. They say that the world today is going through a period of reconciliations, not one of heated rhetoric that stokes tensions. Some observers have even said that Donald Trump's administration may pose an opportunity for Iran because it wants to enter Iranian markets and exploit investment opportunities there. Asked about their views, Iranian citizens say that now is not the time of costly confrontations, but cooperation and respect of interests. The participants of the American-Iranian dialogue do not hesitate in saying that the talks are beneficial and constructive and that they have taken preliminary steps that can be built upon. The talks between Washington and Tehran should have taken place amid tensions and should have been teetering on the edge of the abyss. After all, the master of the White House is Donald Trump. He is the man who tore up the previous nuclear agreement that Iran had won under Barak Obama's term. He is the same man who ordered the killing of General Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad airport. He is also the same man who just weeks ago told Iran to choose between a new deal or a possible US-backed Israeli strike. Iran does not normally succumb to such rhetoric, but it did this time. The observer has the right to wonder why Iran suddenly adopted a realistic approach. Is it seeking a truce because Trump really does follow through with his threats? Does it sense that the man who took a decision as significant as the killing of Soleimani would not think twice about giving Benjamin Netanyahu the green light to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities with inevitable American help to complete the mission? Has Tehran derived the lessons it should have from the series of wars that erupted after the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation? It could not save Hamas. It could not save Hezbollah. The scenes of Houthi positions coming under American fire speak for themselves. Has Tehran realized the extent of the loss that was Syria being taken out of the Resistance Axis after Bashar al-Assad was ousted from power? We mustn't forget about Iraq that wants to steer clear of any possible conflict. Tehran had evidently taken a decision years ago to avoid becoming embroiled in any direct confrontation with the US. I heard this myself from Iranian officials several years ago. I asked the people I met in Tehran a simple question about whether they believe a war would erupt with the US given the constant tensions between them. The answers may have been phrased differently, but they were all the same: 'You are asking about a war that will never happen.' Some did not hesitate in saying that Iran is skilled at living on the brink of war without ever being dragged into one. I asked them to elaborate on this conviction given that war is not really in the cards, and they told me to ignore the heated rhetoric. Iran knows that the American military is a mighty force that is capable of destroying any target in the world. It has no interest in colliding with a force that can take us back several decades, they told me. The American jets can inflict massive damage on our factories, air force and everything we have achieved since the revolution. With these explanations came assertions: We will never surrender to American might. We hold the cards that can exert pressure, and we know how to use them. Moreover, American knows how important Iran is and that it is impossible to replicate the Iraqi experience - toppling the regime through a ground invasion - on its territory. This does not mean that we approve of the American policy in the region, whether in Palestine or beyond. We are in a confrontation with the US, but this confrontation is taking place in the region, not inside Iran. The region will not remain an open field where America can hunt down whoever it wants against the will of the people of the region. We have allies in several places and can bank on the proxies and wars of attrition by proxy. The decision to avert a direct military confrontation with the US was present during the most difficult circumstances the region has endured. It was there when Iran was leading a major coup against the American presence in the Middle East. The suicide operations that had taken place in Beirut were aimed at undermining the American and western presence in Lebanon. Soleimani himself was in charge of depleting the American military presence in Iraq and facilitating the infiltration of 'jihadists' into Iraq. The Iranian coup was an obvious success when Syria became a solid member of the Axis of Resistance. Soleimani paved a road from Tehran to Beirut passing through Iraq and Syria. But this is now in the past. Beirut and Damascus have changed. The Houthis are taking shelter in tunnels in a war without end. The Axis was broken by Israeli barbarism, American support and technological superiority. Has Iran acknowledged that the era of coups that changed the balances of power in the region, as well as four of its maps, is over? There is no doubt that the Iran that headed towards the current negotiations with the US is taking part with fewer cards. Hamas itself has proposed a five-year truce and abandoned its desire to keep running Gaza. Hezbollah has limited options. It cannot go back to war now that Syria is under President Ahmed al-Sharaa's rule. It is also widely known that the majority of the Lebanese people oppose a return to war and support limiting the possession of weapons in their country to the state.
Saba Yemen
12-04-2025
- Politics
- Saba Yemen
Haraz tribe in Manakhah, Sa'fan declares general mobilization to confront American aggression
Sana'a - Saba: The Haraz tribes in the Manakhah and Sa'fan districts of Sana'a Governorate declared a general mobilization to confront what they described as American aggression. The announcement was made during a tribal gathering attended by several local officials. Participants condemned the war crimes committed against the Palestinian people and denounced the targeting of civilian homes in Yemen, including the home of Saleh al-Suhaili in Sana'a, considering it a flagrant violation of humanitarian laws. The tribe declared a general mobilization and called on its members to enroll in military and training courses, affirming its readiness to confront what it called "the arrogance of the Great Satan." They also renewed their support for the leader of the revolution, Abdulmalik al-Houthi, in taking the appropriate action to support Palestine and defend Yemen. A statement issued by the tribal gathering called on the tribes of the governorate and Yemen as a whole to declare a general mobilization and hold the international community responsible for its silence regarding American and Zionist crimes in Yemen and Gaza. Whatsapp Telegram Email Print more of (Local)
Japan Times
15-03-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Despite tough talk, economic woes may force Iran to bargain with Trump
For Iran's clerical leaders, engaging with the "Great Satan" to hammer out a nuclear deal and ease crippling sanctions may for once be the lesser of two evils. Though it harbors deep mistrust of the United States, and President Donald Trump in particular, Tehran is increasingly concerned that mounting public anger over economic hardships could erupt into mass protests, four Iranian officials said. That's why, despite the unyielding stance and defiant rhetoric of Iran's clerical leaders in public, there is a pragmatic willingness within Tehran's corridors of power to strike a deal with Washington, the people said.
