Latest news with #GreatStay
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Workers are ‘job hugging' in a stagnant labor market, but growing resentment means they could bail as soon as the next Great Resignation comes
More employees are planning to stay at their current jobs as a stagnant labor market shakes workers' confidence they'll be able to find work elsewhere. This act of 'job hugging,' however, can exacerbate employees feeling stuck, stoking resentment toward their employers. One workplace expert said this growing discontent will lead to another Great Resignation once market conditions improve. A stagnating labor market is leading workers to hold tightly on to their jobs, even as growing workplace uncertainty stokes resentment and concern among employees, consultants warn. But while employees are staying put to weather the storm, this act of 'job hugging' may only be temporary as they prepare to flee as soon as market conditions improve. The pandemic-era 'Great Resignation' saw 47 million people quit their jobs in 2021 and 50 million more in 2022 as they looked for flexible working conditions and higher pay. As job openings and turnover returned to pre-COVID levels in 2023, the mass exodus of workers transitioned to the 'Great Stay.' Today, as tariff uncertainty threatens companies' growth plans and private equity funding slows—not to mention advancements in AI stoking employees' fears about being displaced—workers are staying put with extra anxiety. They're concerned that should they quit, they wouldn't be able to find options elsewhere, according to consulting firm Korn Ferry. This act of 'job hugging' has workers hanging on to their positions 'for dear life.' 'Given just all the activity that happened post-COVID and then some of these constant layoffs, people are waiting and sitting in seats and hoping that they have more stability,' Korn Ferry managing consultant Stacy DeCesaro told Fortune. Since 2024's fourth quarter, the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index has indicated growing employee intent to stay at their current jobs in the next six months. The consultancy also saw a 4.4-point drop in its Market Opportunity Indicator last quarter, indicating a steep decline in employee perceptions of the job market. U.S. payrolls grew by just 73,000 in July, and have expanded by an average of only 35,000 in the past three months. 'No one is wanting to leave unless they're very unhappy or miserable in their job or just feel so unsettled by the company,' DeCesaro said. Growing employee frustration Just because more employees are sticking around doesn't mean they are happy about it. A November 2024 report from Glassdoor found that 65% of employees reported feeling 'stuck' in their current positions, including 73% of those in tech roles. With fewer alternatives, sitting tight at one's job has, for many, resulted in cabin fever. 'It's no accident that trends like 'quiet quitting' are resonating now,' Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, wrote in the report. 'As workers feel stuck, pent-up resentment boils under the surface and employee disengagement rises.' On top of bleak job prospects elsewhere, employees are also grappling with a rotating door of company management, which has exacerbated feelings of discomfort and disconnect from a firm's vision, DeCesaro said. Some of her clients said they've worked under three different company presidents in the past 18 months. CEO turnover rates have reached their highest in decades, with departures jumping 12% from June 2024 to June 2025, according to data from executive placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, reaching the highest levels since the company began tracking turnover in 2002. In other cases, DeCesaro said, new management has provided hope for employees, incentivizing them to stick around that much longer, even if their workplace culture ultimately doesn't end up changing for the better. Taken together, these factors have led to the rise of 'quiet cracking,' employees reaching a breaking point and mentally checking out. The productivity dip as a result of employee disengagement cost the world economy $438 billion in 2024, according to Gallup's 2025 State of the Global Workplace report. 'Great Resignation' redux Employees may have few other career options now, but once market conditions improve, this quiet discontent will no doubt mean déjà vu for employers, DeCesaro said: Another Great Resignation is coming. 'Once the market improves, I think it's going to be super active because there's a lot of pent-up demand of like, 'I've been miserable here for a while, but I've just been waiting for a better opportunity or a better market to move,'' DeCesaro said. If employers want to ensure their workers don't leave as soon as they see other career options, they should focus on looking for opportunities to open doors of communication between management and rank-and-file workers, as well as take the time to gather and listen to workers' feedback, according to DeCesaro. With some jobs remaining entirely remote, there should be a continued effort to gather once a year or quarter to create a cohesive company culture. 'It's going to be a fruit basket turnover of talent,' DeCesaro said. 'But if you've invested in your people between now and when that happens, people are going to be reticent to leave.' This story was originally featured on Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Survey: Nearly 1 in 2 workers plan to search for a new job in the coming year
After several years of favorable conditions for workers, with many job-hopping for better pay and benefits, the economy is once again an employer's market. Despite that, nearly half (48 percent) of those working full-time or looking for full-time employment say they're likely to search for a new job in the next 12 months, according to Bankrate's new Worker Intentions Survey. Workers today are facing a complex job market. On one hand, total nonfarm payroll employment (which includes most part-time and full-time workers) rose by 147,000 jobs in June, roughly similar to the average monthly job gain over the past year and mostly in state government or health care, and the unemployment rate has been stagnant at 4.1 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On the other hand, the number of long-term unemployed people (those unemployed for 27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000. Most other major industries, from construction to professional and business services, had limited new openings in June. This has been especially stressful for new graduates, who are currently experiencing a higher unemployment rate than the general population. The combination of low unemployment and limited openings for most industries has led to a trend called the 'Great Stay,' where workers are mostly staying put at their current roles. Bankrate's insights on job hunters White-collar jobs are limited, but many workers are looking for greener pastures 48% of workers (those working full-time or looking for full-time employment) say they're likely to search for a new job in the next 12 months. That includes 25% who say they're very likely to search for a new job. Most workers' employment situation hasn't changed much 65% of workers say their employment or career situation is about the same as it was in January 2025. 22% say it's improved, and 14% say it's worsened. Despite that, some workers are worried about their job security 27% of workers say their level of worry about their job security has worsened since January 2025. On the other hand, 42% say their level of worry about job security hasn't changed, and 15% say they're less worried. Bankrate Data Center Since 1976, Bankrate has been the go-to source for personal finance data, publishing average rates on the most popular financial products and tracking the experience of consumers nationwide. See more Workers commonly want to look for a new job, ask for a raise Sometimes, a more challenging job market can make people more cautious about asking for raises or additional flexibility at work, in an effort not to rock the boat. However, that isn't currently stopping many workers from looking for more from their current roles. More than 2 in 5 (44 percent) workers say they're likely to ask for a raise at work in the next year. 'As the job market has normalized following the period a few years ago when it was widely described as red-hot, many workers are seeking better pay or new work,' Bankrate Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick says. Additionally, 36 percent say they're likely to ask for more workplace flexibility (such as different hours or the ability to work from home/remotely more often). As employers bring workers back to the office post-COVID-19, that percentage is down from last year, when 42 percent of people planned to ask for more workplace flexibility. Separately,18 percent say they're likely to relocate for a job in the next year. As workers report having difficulty finding new roles, some actually plan to leave their job. While nearly half of workers say they plan to look for a new job, only 18 percent of workers say they're likely to quit a job in the next year, down from 25 percent in 2024. Other workers are looking to leave the rat race altogether. AI is making it easier than ever to start your own business, and white-collar jobs are becoming harder to get. Now, one-quarter (25 percent) of workers say they plan to start their own business in the next year: Source: Bankrate's Worker Intentions Survey, June 6-16, 2025Note: Percentages are of people who are employed or looking for employment Gen Z workers (ages 18-28) are the most likely generation to look for a new role in the next year. More than half (53 percent) of Gen Z workers are likely to search for a new job, compared to 49 percent of millennial workers (ages 29-44), 48 percent of Gen X workers (ages 45-60) and 1 in 4 baby boomer workers (ages 61-79). Additionally, nearly one-quarter of Gen Z workers say they're likely to quit a job in the next year, more than any other generation: Gen Z workers: 23 percent Millennial workers: 17 percent Gen X workers: 16 percent Baby boomer workers: 1 in 10 Gen Z and millennial workers are also likeliest to say they are likely to start their own business in the next year: Gen Z workers: 31 percent Millennial workers: 30 percent Gen X workers: 19 percent Baby boomer workers: 1 in 10 Also, a majority of Gen Z and millennial workers say they're likely to ask for a raise at work in the next year: Gen Z workers: 51 percent Millennial workers: 50 percent Gen X workers: 39 percent Baby boomer workers: 1 in 5 Notably, among different income brackets, workers making under $50,000 per year are likelier than people in higher income brackets to search for a new job in the next year: Workers making under $50,000 per year: 58 percent Workers making between $50,000-$79,999 per year: 47 percent Workers making between $80,000-$99,999 per year: 29 percent Workers making $100,000 per year or more: 41 percent A small percentage of workers say their job situation has worsened this year Regardless of whether they're ready to jump ship, the majority (65 percent) of workers say their employment or career situation is about the same as it was in the beginning of 2025. Though 2025 is proving challenging for many workers, this trend has persisted for a while. In 2024, 57 percent of workers said their employment/career situation was about the same compared to when the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in March 2022. One in five (22 percent) say their employment or career situation has improved in 2025, and 14 percent say it's worsened: Source: Bankrate's Worker Intentions Survey, June 6-16, 2025Note: Percentages are of people who are employed or looking for employment Among workers of different political affiliations, Republicans are the likeliest (27 percent) to say their employment/career situation has improved, compared to 22 percent of Democrats and 19 percent of Independents. Meanwhile, 16 percent of Independents, 13 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans say their employment/career situation has worsened. Millennials are the most likely to feel increasingly worried about their job security Despite recent news of layoffs and a difficult job market for white-collar workers, the majority of workers aren't more worried about their job security now. About 1 in 4 (27 percent) workers are more worried about their job security since the beginning of the year. Another 42 percent of workers say their level of worry about job security hasn't changed since the beginning of the year, and 15 percent say they're less worried about their job security. Sixteen percent of workers say they've never been worried about their job security: Source: Bankrate's Worker Intentions Survey, June 6-16, 2025Note: Percentages are of people who are employed or looking for employment Of all generations, millennials are the likeliest to say they're more worried about their job security now compared to the beginning of the year: Gen Z workers: 24 percent Millennial workers: 33 percent Gen X workers: 24 percent Baby boomer workers: 1 in 5 Along party lines, Democrats and Independents are more worried about their job security than Republicans: Democrats: 31 percent Independents: 31 percent Republicans: 17 percent 3 tips when looking for a new role in today's challenging job market Today's job market isn't ideal for looking for a new role. But whether you're looking for a higher salary, better work-life balance or if you're just worried about your job security, there's a few things you can do to prepare for a job hunt. 'Most forecasters see inflation picking up and the job market weakening modestly over the next year,' Hamrick says. 'In any case, it is prudent for workers to keep their skills sharpened and their contacts activated. If one plans to look for work in the coming months or is forced into that situation by unemployment, these proactive steps should make for an easier transition.' 1. Boost your savings Before making any large life change, like starting a new job, it's important to make sure your finances — especially your savings — are up to snuff. Traditionally, a well-stocked emergency savings fund might have three to six months of expenses in it, but as more workers are unemployed for six months or more, you might want to consider keeping more than six months of expenses saved. This is also a smart move if you're concerned about your job security — the more money you have saved for emergencies, the more secure you may feel. There are a few things you can do to increase the amount you save each month: Create a budget, or update your budget if you haven't touched it in a while. Review your spending habits for unwanted expenses and places where you can cut back. See if you can cut $50 to $100 of spending per month by cutting back on unused subscriptions, cooking more at home or renegotiating your bills. Set a savings goal with a specific time period and amount, such as $5,000 in a year. This will help hold you accountable. Automate your savings by setting a recurring transfer every time you're paid. Keep your savings in a high-yield savings account, which will earn more interest than a traditional savings account, essentially offering a free boost to your savings. 2. Understand your strengths as a job candidate to help you negotiate Job interviews are an exercise in marketing yourself. Before starting the interview process, write down three soft skills and three hard skills you bring to the table — include these in your resume, too. Soft skills could be communication, leadership, conflict management, teamwork, problem-solving or time management. Hard skills, on the other hand, could be any technical skills or certifications and degrees you've earned. Also, in your resume and in your interviews,note tangible accomplishments from the past few years. These could be new initiatives you've started, financial targets that you've met, ways you've optimized your work or other accomplishments. Understanding your skills will help you be able to better negotiate when it's time to discuss salary and benefits, either when asking for a promotion at your current role or when you're looking for your next job. Even if it's an employer's job market, you should still advocate for equitable pay and benefits. Ask for what you deserve. 'Between the moves by the federal government, rapid advances in technology including artificial intelligence, and the changing global landscape, there is a high level of uncertainty but also plenty of opportunities,' Hamrick says. 'Workers with the right skill sets and can-do attitudes will be in the best position to win.' 3. Connect with your network If there were ever a time to go through that pile of business cards in the bottom of your desk drawer, now's it. Your network, whether that's connections on LinkedIn, former employers and colleagues, fellow college alumni or others in your community, are a great resource when looking for a new role. If you're looking for your next job, label yourself as 'Open to Work' on LinkedIn and prioritize growing your network by reaching out to former colleagues or attending local networking events. Methodology This survey has been conducted using an online interview administered to members of the YouGov Plc panel of individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. The total sample size was 2,000 U.S. adults, of whom 1,005 are working full-time or currently looking for full-time employment. Fieldwork was undertaken between June 6-16, 2025. The survey was carried out online and meets rigorous quality standards. It gathered a non-probability-based sample and employed demographic quotas and weights to better align the survey sample with the broader U.S. population. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
15-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Why Employees Who Won't Quit Are a Hidden Risk
Unhappy Workers Have you ever wished one of your employees would quit so that you wouldn't need to have one of those extremely uncomfortable conversations with this person? If so, you're not alone. Many leaders have mastered the skill of avoidance. In fact, they're so good at avoiding any kind of conflict that they could teach a masterclass on this topic. A few years back, when the job market was humming, you could pray this person would leave and most likely your prayers would be answered. If your prayers weren't answered, you could help push your person along by asking a headhunter friend of yours to reach out to them to discuss a job listing that would be a step up for them. Fast forward to today and those days are a distant memory. In a reversal from the Great Resignation, we now have the Great Stay—deeply unhappy employees who refuse to leave. Economic uncertainty has resulted in a workforce that's staying put out of fear, not loyalty or employee satisfaction, which is presenting hidden risks for organization. The 'Great Stay': What the Heck is This All About? Employees, in record numbers, are remaining in jobs they dislike (or even hate) but are unwilling to leave due to high levels of anxiety about the economy and job market instability. After record-high quite rates in 2022, dubbed the 'Great Resignation', quit rates have now dropped below pre-pandemic levels. The Numbers Don't Lie Here are the facts: The Hidden Risks of Reluctant Retention When workers feel dissatisfied with their jobs, they often become complacent. They do what is needed and little more. Innovation? Forget about it. These employees are less productive and more prone to burnout. They are often verbal and can turn an engaged team into a disengaged workgroup overnight. When the economy improves (and it always does) a mass exodus could catch your company off guard and create serious damage, especially when key players are the ones leading the pack. What Bosses Can Do Address performance issues in real time: Hoping performance problems will go away on their own is not a strategy. Teach your leaders how to handle difficult conversations and hold these leaders accountable. Be proactive: Don't assume retention means satisfaction. Up your communication. Do what I call 'Time out for a Coffee' sessions. This is where you invite people into your office weekly to chat over coffee. And if you're feeling especially generous, you may want to consider serving some snacks. Do less talking and more listening, so that you can get a beat on how your people are feeling about things at work. Get to the core of the matter: Address root causes. It's no secret that employees are seeking career development, workplace flexibility, equitable compensation and strong leadership. Give people what they need, and you'll be able to turn reluctant stayers into loyal contributors. Prepare for the future: Build a solid culture where employees love to work and customers love to do business. By doing so, you'll be prepared to withstand the next wave of voluntary departures. The 'Great Stay' may look great on paper but could very well be a ticking time bomb. Ignore this phenomena at your own peril.
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Skepticism About College Is Hard to Shake
This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. College-graduation ceremonies are expressions of joy, but also of relief. As photos are taken, tassels turned, hugs exchanged, the hope is that all of the hard work, and the money, will have been worth it. But many Americans aren't convinced that it is. Confidence in the institution of higher education has fallen sharply over the past decade, and among political groups, Republicans show the most skepticism. A 2024 Pew Research Center report noted that only one in four Americans says 'it's extremely or very important to have a four-year college degree in order to get a well-paying job in today's economy.' The fact that finding a job has gotten more difficult for recent graduates hasn't done much to inspire faith in higher education. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in late April that the unemployment rate for recent grads is at 5.8 percent (compared with the overall unemployment rate of 4.2 percent), its highest since July 2021. Some challenges in finding a job after graduation are more about the economic patterns of the past few years than they are about the deficiencies of college. In 2021, America was going through the 'Great Resignation,' when many people were quitting jobs to find better pay or better working conditions elsewhere. But after inflation rose dramatically that same year and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2022, demand cooled for white-collar industry jobs such as those in technology and consulting. Now 'the Great Resignation has become what some people call the 'Great Stay,'' my colleague Derek Thompson told me. 'We're still adding jobs, but there's not as many openings for the musical chairs of the economy as there used to be.' The years immediately following the pandemic were also a time of major wage growth for traditionally low-wage industries, such as retail and hospitality, which employ a large share of workers with less formal education. But this growth may not last throughout a worker's life: In general, earnings for low-wage jobs that do not require a college degree tend to stagnate over time. 'Wages grow faster for more-educated workers because college is a gateway to professional occupations, such as business and engineering, in which workers learn new skills, get promoted, and gain managerial experience,' the economist David Deming explained in The Atlantic in 2023. If we take the recent unemployment stats as a result of specific post-pandemic trends, they shouldn't necessarily spook people into giving up on college. But questions about the benefit of a college degree far precede the pandemic. Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates that the earnings gap between college graduates and high-school graduates stopped widening around 2010 and has been fairly consistent ever since. The experts I spoke with were clear: The college wage premium is still high—in other words, college graduates make more money on average than nongraduates. In fact, the latest data suggest that the median salary for college graduates aged 22–27 is 50 percent higher than high-school graduates of the same age. But this premium doesn't appear to be going up. Part of this story is the fact that employers have found it easier in recent years to hire high-school graduates to do the same entry-level work as college graduates. As the San Francisco Bank researchers note, this may be because we've seen a relative slowdown in the invention of new technologies that favor college graduates who are educated in using them, like desktop computers did in the 1980s. And although it's too soon to tell the effect that generative AI is having on the job market for new grads, this tech seems likely to introduce the opposite dynamic: Instead of putting college graduates at an advantage, it could decrease the number of entry-level jobs that require more formal education. The college wage premium is still high, which means that it's still beneficial to get a degree. But for whom, exactly? A new working paper from Zachary Bleemer, an assistant professor of economics at Princeton, and Sarah Quincy, an assistant professor of economics at Vanderbilt, found that for the first half of the 20th century, college offered the same added wage value for students from both high- and low-income backgrounds. That changed after the 1960s: Since then, the overall return on college has grown, and the relative value of college for lower-income kids has steadily declined. Some of this is because lower-income students have become less likely than higher-income students to enroll in traditional four-year colleges, instead opting for community or for-profit colleges. Another reason, Bleemer told me, is that in recent decades, many states have chosen to invest more in their flagship schools than in the local public universities, where a large share of their students are enrolled. As the gaps between these schools have widened, Bleemer said, 'the relative value of college for the lower-income kids that predominantly go to these local public institutions has fallen.' What a student chooses to major in also matters: Higher-income students have become more likely to earn degrees in computer science and engineering in recent years. As universities have become more selective about which students they admit to these degree programs, 'lower-income kids are increasingly left out of those very high-wage disciplines,' he said. Bleemer had the same note of caution as the other experts I spoke with: Although the relative value of college for low-income students has fallen, 'it's still way bigger than zero.' He pointed me to studies from several states that show the value of college to the long-run outcomes of students who were just at the margins of being permitted to enroll in their state's public higher-education system—particularly those with lower incomes. The research shows that college-going is valuable for those kids—'far more valuable than the tuition costs' they accrue, Bleemer said. Even though the numbers make the case for college, much of Americans' distrust in higher education has nothing to do with return on investment. Some of their skepticism is rooted in the realities of a difficult job market, but another portion is rooted in broader political views and abstract notions about the perils of academia. These doubts may also have a basis in Americans' lack of faith in institutions, and in one another. Colleges can't solve those problems by themselves. But schools, and the governments that fund them, do have a role in earning that trust back—in strengthening universities' reputation as places for learning, discovering oneself, and finding abundant opportunity. More state and federal investment in higher education could help. As the Trump administration attempts to strip schools of federal funding, though, it's becoming clear that setting up colleges to better serve students is not a national priority. Related: The college backlash is going too far. (From 2023) Something alarming is happening to the job market. Here are three new stories from The Atlantic. A high IQ makes you an outsider, not a genius. The David Frum Show: Why are the media so afraid of Trump? No one can offer any hope, George Packer argues. Today's News Donald Trump's 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have kicked in. The Congressional Budget Office released an analysis estimating that the tax bill working its way through Congress will increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade. It also estimated that an additional 10.9 million people will lose health insurance by 2034 because of cuts and new eligibility rules in the bill. President Trump said that Vladimir Putin told him he plans to respond to Ukraine's major drone attack on Russian airfields. More From The Atlantic Archivists aren't ready for the 'very online' era. A Ukrainian crime caper that undermines expectations Big Tech's AI endgame is coming into focus. Evening Read Mount Everest's Xenon-Gas Controversy Will Last Forever By Alex Hutchinson It was a travesty—two travesties, actually, separate but inextricably linked. In May 1953, Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay became the first people to reach the summit of Mount Everest, a challenge that had killed more than a dozen people in the preceding decades and that scientists had once declared impossible. The catch: They breathed canisters of pure oxygen, an aid that the Everest pioneer George Mallory—one of those who died on the mountain—had once dismissed as 'a damnable heresy.' Read the full article. Culture Break Look. Spend time with photos of a spectacular eruption at Mount Etna. Read. These five books will redirect your attention when you need it. Play our daily crossword. Isabel Fattal contributed to this newsletter. When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic. Article originally published at The Atlantic
Atlantic
04-06-2025
- Business
- Atlantic
America's College Crisis
This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. College-graduation ceremonies are expressions of joy, but also of relief. As photos are taken, tassels turned, hugs exchanged, the hope is that all of the hard work, and the money, will have been worth it. But many Americans aren't convinced that it is. Confidence in the institution of higher education has fallen sharply over the past decade, and among political groups, Republicans show the most skepticism. A 2024 Pew Research Center report noted that only one in four Americans says 'it's extremely or very important to have a four-year college degree in order to get a well-paying job in today's economy.' The fact that finding a job has gotten more difficult for recent graduates hasn't done much to inspire faith in higher education. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in late April that the unemployment rate for recent grads is at 5.8 percent (compared with the overall unemployment rate of 4.2 percent), its highest since July 2021. Some challenges in finding a job after graduation are more about the economic patterns of the past few years than they are about the deficiencies of college. In 2021, America was going through the 'Great Resignation,' when many people were quitting jobs to find better pay or better working conditions elsewhere. But after inflation rose dramatically that same year and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2022, demand cooled for white-collar industry jobs such as those in technology and consulting. Now 'the Great Resignation has become what some people call the 'Great Stay,'' my colleague Derek Thompson told me. 'We're still adding jobs, but there's not as many openings for the musical chairs of the economy as there used to be.' The years immediately following the pandemic were also a time of major wage growth for traditionally low-wage industries, such as retail and hospitality,which employ a large share of workers with less formal education. But this growth may not last throughout a worker's life: In general, earnings for low-wage jobs that do not require a college degree tend to stagnate over time. 'Wages grow faster for more-educated workers because college is a gateway to professional occupations, such as business and engineering, in which workers learn new skills, get promoted, and gain managerial experience,' the economist David Deming explained in The Atlantic in 2023. If we take the recent unemployment stats as a result of specific post-pandemic trends, they shouldn't necessarily spook people into giving up on college. But questions about the benefit of a college degree far precede the pandemic. Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates that the earnings gap between college graduates and high-school graduates stopped widening around 2010 and has been fairly consistent ever since. The experts I spoke with were clear: The college wage premium is still high—in other words, college graduates make more money on average than nongraduates. In fact, the latest data suggest that the median salary for college graduates aged 22–27 is 50 percent higher than high-school graduates of the same age. But this premium doesn't appear to be going up. Part of this story is the fact that employers have found it easier in recent years to hire high-school graduates to do the same entry-level work as college graduates. As the San Francisco Bank researchers note, this may be because we've seen a relative slowdown in the invention of new technologies that favor college graduates who are educated in using them, like desktop computers did in the 1980s. And although it's too soon to tell the effect that generative AI is having on the job market for new grads, this tech seems likely to introduce the opposite dynamic: Instead of putting college graduates at an advantage, it could decrease the number of entry-level jobs that require more formal education. The college wage premium is still high, which means that it's still beneficial to get a degree. But for whom, exactly? A new working paper from Zachary Bleemer, an assistant professor of economics at Princeton, and Sarah Quincy, an assistant professor of economics at Vanderbilt, found that for the first half of the 20th century, college offered the same added wage value for students from both high- and low-income backgrounds. That changed after the 1960s: Since then, the overall return on college has grown, and the relative value of college for lower-income kids has steadily declined. Some of this is because lower-income students have become less likely than higher-income students to enroll in traditional four-year colleges, instead opting for community or for-profit colleges. Another reason, Bleemer told me, is that in recent decades, many states have chosen to invest more in their flagship schools than in the local public universities, where a large share of their students are enrolled. As the gaps between these schools have widened, Bleemer said, 'the relative value of college for the lower-income kids that predominantly go to these local public institutions has fallen.' What a student chooses to major in also matters: Higher-income students have become more likely to earn degrees in computer science and engineering in recent years. As universities have become more selective about which students they admit to these degree programs, 'lower-income kids are increasingly left out of those very high-wage disciplines,' he said. Bleemer had the same note of caution as the other experts I spoke with: Although the relative value of college for low-income students has fallen, 'it's still way bigger than zero.' He pointed me to studies from several states that show the value of college to the long-run outcomes of students who were just at the margins of being permitted to enroll in their state's public higher-education system—particularly those with lower incomes. The research shows that college-going is valuable for those kids—'far more valuable than the tuition costs' they accrue, Bleemer said. Even though the numbers make the case for college, much of Americans' distrust in higher education has nothing to do with return on investment. Some of their skepticism is rooted in the realities of a difficult job market, but another portion is rooted in broader political views and abstract notions about the perils of academia. These doubts may also have a basis in Americans' lack of faith in institutions, and in one another. Colleges can't solve those problems by themselves. But schools, and the governments that fund them, do have a role in earning that trust back—in strengthening universities' reputation as places for learning, discovering oneself, and finding abundant opportunity. More state and federal investment in higher education could help. As the Trump administration attempts to strip schools of federal funding, though, it's becoming clear that setting up colleges to better benefit students is not a national priority. Here are three new stories from The Atlantic. Today's News Donald Trump's 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have kicked in. The Congressional Budget Office released an analysis estimating that the tax bill working its way through Congress will increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade. It also estimated that an additional 10.9 million people will lose health insurance by 2034 because of cuts and new eligibility rules in the bill. President Trump said that Vladimir Putin told him he plans to respond to Ukraine's major drone attack on Russian airfields. Evening Read Mount Everest's Xenon-Gas Controversy Will Last Forever It was a travesty—two travesties, actually, separate but inextricably linked. In May 1953, Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay became the first people to reach the summit of Mount Everest, a challenge that had killed more than a dozen people in the preceding decades and that scientists had once declared impossible. The catch: They breathed canisters of pure oxygen, an aid that the Everest pioneer George Mallory—one of those who died on the mountain—had once dismissed as 'a damnable heresy.' Look. Spend time with photos of a spectacular eruption at Mount Etna. Read. These five books will redirect your attention when you need it. Play our daily crossword. Isabel Fattal contributed to this newsletter.
