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Shedding old habits: Rethinking agricultural practices in India

India's ambitious goal to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2070 faces a significant challenge from its agriculture sector, a major GHG emitter. This issue traces back to the Green Revolution which was once a breakthrough in food production but has now become counter-productive. As per a 2014 study by the Indian Agriculture Research Institute (IARI), India's Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) have the highest global warming potential, mainly due to extensive rice cultivation. The scenario remains largely unchanged today. This can be attributed to the fact that rice, a staple crop of the country, is conventionally produced in water-flooded fields and uses large quantity of nitrogenous fertilisers, resulting in significant methane emissions. Nonetheless, Indian agriculture holds the potential to become a green solution and this calls for its transformation. The advent of the Green Revolution led to the adoption of an intensive rice-wheat cropping pattern. The favourable agro-climatic conditions, availability of natural resources, government support in the form of input subsidies for power, irrigation, and fertilisers, and assured procurement of paddy at a pre-determined price facilitated the farmers in doing so. As a result, especially the states of Punjab and Haryana in the IGP, experienced a significant increase in agricultural productivity and growth. Before the Green Revolution, the agricultural productivity of paddy in Punjab was approximately 1.51 tonne per hectare (ha) which increased by 150 per cent to 3.83 tonne/ha by 2010-11. Likewise, the agricultural productivity of paddy in Haryana was around 1.16 tonne/ha, and increased to 2.79 tonne/ha in 2010-11, indicating an increase of 140 per cent during the four decades after the Green Revolution. Over time, the side-effects of the Gree Revolution started showing up in the quality of the environment. Paddy production requires an average of 18 irrigations over a span of 135 days and is, thus, a water-guzzling crop. Its intensive cultivation has fatigued the natural resource base. Moreover, the large volume of rice production translates to a large volume of rice residue which is predominantly burnt due to limited sustainable alternative uses. The over-exploited groundwater levels, increased soil salinity, and inadequate investments in agricultural technology result in dwindling paddy yields. To ensure consistent yields and food security despite deteriorating soil quality, many paddy farmers over-apply highly subsidised fertilisers in an unscientific manner. This results in environmental degradation, including poor soil health and methane emissions instead of improving yields. The significant allocation of fertiliser subsidies for paddy production encourages indiscriminate paddy cultivation, leading to over-fertilisation. This further underscores the fiscal burden of input subsidies. Therefore, India must devise a strategy to ensure food and nutritional security without aggravating climate change or compromising crop yields. Effectively, the farmers should no longer be incentivised to produce paddy. This necessitates a paradigm shift in agricultural cropping patterns in the country, and the promotion of crop diversification can enable it. Specifically, the traditional paddy-producing states of India can diversify their cropping pattern and reduce their over-production of paddy. Alternatively, they can grow crops that are close substitutes for paddy but less resource-intensive, such as millets as they require only 5-6 irrigations in a span of 100 days. India is at the forefront of promoting millets globally. To showcase its commitment towards the same, it served millet-based dishes during the G20 meeting it hosted in 2023. Moreover, at India's behest, the United Nations declared 2023 as the International Year of Millets. These initiatives not only highlight India's rich cultural history of millets but also its position as the world's leading producer of varieties like bajra, jowar, and ragi. Millet-based meals are still utilised in religious ceremonies and festivities such as Makar Sankranti, in the states of Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Nagaland. Traditionally, millets were popular in India, but the Green Revolution coupled with the country's economic growth, development, and urbanisation shifted the focus away from millet to finer calorie-rich cereals such as rice, wheat, maize, and other commercial crops like oilseeds and pulses. However, these factors also led to a notable surge in the prevalence of health issues such as diabetes, making India one of the global epicentres of the disease. As millets have a low glycaemic index and high fibre content, they are more nutritionally dense than rice. Thus, re-introducing them in modern diets can cost-effectively resolve the grave issues of malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies in the population, besides offering other health benefits. Lately, the government of India has been propagating the production and consumption of millets, shedding light on its untapped uses for food, feed, fodder, biofuels, and brewing. For instance, in 2018, the government notified millets as 'Nutri-Cereals'. Subsequently, 2018 was celebrated as the National Year of Millets in India. Millets are also included in the Poshan Mission Abhiyan by the Ministry of Women and Child Development and promoted as part of the National Food Security Mission. Moreover, the country implements the National Mission for Millet with states such as Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh having their own Millet Missions. Consequently, while India witnessed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of millet production at 410 per cent, the aforementioned states witnessed a CAGR ranging from 61 per cent to 320 per cent between 2018-19 and 2022-23. Technical interventions such as precision agriculture and the development of drought-resistant millet varieties can support these initiatives. Additionally, food processing technologies for millet and agri-tech startups can create efficient supply chains, improving their market access and prices. As of now, 25 seed hubs and more than 500 start-ups and 350 food processing organisations have been established in the millet ecosystem of India. Scaling these initiatives across all states can ultimately drive the long-term viability of millet farming. The transition from paddy to millet production could also play a significant role in doubling farmers' income and combatting climate change. Besides, it could resolve the issue of plunging natural resources and paddy yields and mounting government subsidies for agricultural inputs. States such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka which are the top millet producers can spearhead millet production to meet its increasing demand. State-led initiatives like, the Odisha Millet Mission (2017) and the Madhya Pradesh Millet Mission (2023-25) along with national millet policies can pivot states towards millet production and consumption. Meanwhile, states such as Telangana, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar—which already contribute 40 per cent of the country's total paddy production and have safe groundwater levels as of 2022-23 – should focus on paddy production to meet total national demand. Subsequently, Punjab and Haryana which predominantly produce paddy could be encouraged to shed their old habits and shift their focus towards millets. As of 2022-23, their area under paddy production was almost nine times larger than their area under millets. Their production of paddy was also higher by at least 1.5 times, compared to their production of millet. Punjab and Haryana are also among the top contributors to paddy procurement for the central pool. Hence, the suggested change in agricultural cropping patterns could promote environmental sustainability, agricultural viability, and farmers' income security. It would also help reduce the government's huge fertiliser subsidy bill while meeting the consumers' food and nutritional needs. To effectively roll out these ideas and shrink India's carbon footprint, there is a need to design a holistic incentive mechanism for farmers to move away from paddy to millets. This can be done either by repurposing current government expenditure on paddy production and procurement or by creating new incentives for millet production.