Latest news with #GregMagadini
Forbes
4 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Bullish Sentiment Surges As Bitcoin Open Interest Sets New Record
Investor sentiment surrounding bitcoin has spiked recently as the total notional interest in futures tied to this digital currency has climbed, reaching an all-time high over the last several days, according to market analyst Greg Magadini. The fact that open interest in these derivatives contracts rose to record levels while bitcoin prices were trending upward is a sign that markets are feeling quite bullish about the digital currency, Magadini, director of derivatives for digital asset data provider Amberdata, said via Telegram. The chart below shows bitcoin's open interest climbing to an all-time high: Past that, the open interest for futures contracts in the broader crypto market have also been showing quite a bit of strength recently, pushing to new records, Magadini added. The chart depicted below helps illustrate these developments in the overall digital currency markets: On Friday, May 30, billions of dollars' worth of bitcoin options are set to expire, according to Deribit data sourced from a recent CoinDesk article, and multiple analysts commented on the potential implications of this development. 'We can see that Friday's expiration has a large over-hang of positive dealer gamma at $110k the BTC all-time-high area,' Magadini stated via email. 'This means that option market-makers were selling BTC at this level... Which can help explain the sentiment for prices stalling out here.' The chart below illustrates this situation: 'That said looking at all expirations, peak gamma for BTC currently stands around $121k suggesting some more upside to be found, although we'll likely see price quietly move higher without a strong catalyst for an explosive move higher,' said Magadini, commenting on the digital currency's outlook. This chart helps depict the situation: Data on the gamma profile of crypto dealers Amberdata Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, also chimed in. 'Bitcoin volatility has remained near historic lows, but with the upcoming options expiry, we could see implied volatility begin to climb toward the 45 level,' he stated via email. 'Notably, the price gap below the $90,000 mark (previously identified) has now been filled, reinforcing the bullish case for continued upward momentum in the coming months,' Howard added. The analyst also weighed in on how bitcoin prices could behave over the coming months based on the digital asset's market history. 'As we move into the summer period in the Northern Hemisphere, the market liquidity typically thins, contributing to more pronounced price swings. Despite this expected increase in volatility, downside moves below $100,000 appear less probable than an advance beyond the $110,000 level,' Howard emphasized. 'Current options market data shows significant open interest in call options, reflecting a broadly bullish sentiment. Strikes at $112,000 and $115,000 for the current and upcoming expiry cycles are particularly notable, suggesting traders are positioning for further upside in Bitcoin's price trajectory,' he stated, stressing the positive outlook he has for the digital asset.
Business Mayor
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Ethereum: Why THIS analytics firm expects ETH to hit $6K in 2025
Per Amberdata, ETH could rally higher if the U.S. spot ETH ETF staking is approved. The options market is positioned for a $6K upside ETH target by December 2025. Ethereum's [ETH] recent 70% run-up from April lows may be the beginning of a larger uptrend targeting $3.5K-$6K, according to crypto options analytics firm Amberdata. In its weekly market report , Amberdata's Greg Magadini wrote, 'There's a good argument for ETH 'catching-up' as spot ETFs with staking rewards could be a catalyst for institutional participation and sentiment turns around. No reason to be 'calling tops' right now.' ETH catalysts The SEC has postponed its decision on staking applications for spot ETH ETFs from Grayscale and Hashdex, pushing the review period to between June and October. But most analysts, including Magadini, believe this extra staking yield (3% per year) could be a key catalyst for demand for spot ETH ETFs, eventually rallying ETH. In fact, the executive pointed to recent strong bullish inflows targeting $3.5K and $6K by year-end, suggesting traders are positioning for such a scenario. 'ETH block trades last week saw some very bullish flow in EOY December options. $3,500 / $6,000 call spreads traded for 30,000x contracts through 10 distinct trades. The total premium spent here was a little over $7 million.' Call options are bullish bets or protection for the upside, reflecting bullish sentiment for future price action. Puts, on the contrary, refer to the opposite and downside protection, underscoring a bearish bias. Simply put, traders expected ETH to rally between $3.5K and $6K by December 2025. On-chain data also supported the continued uptrend thesis. Since April, over 1 million ETH (about $2.38 billion) have been moved from exchanges between April and mid-May. This mirrored broader accumulation amid the renewed altcoin surge. Source: Glassnode That's a significant reduction in selling pressure that could further boost the rally. Despite the mid-term bullish outlook, ETH's short-term momentum weakened slightly at press time. According to crypto trader and analyst, Income Sharks , ETH's On Balance Volume (OBV) retreated, suggesting reduced volume that could drag the rally. Source: Income Sharks/X Besides, he added that the formation of a bearish head and shoulder pattern could drag ETH lower if validated. On the daily price chart, however, ETH flashed a golden cross, a formation that sometimes precedes massive rallies.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Solana Block Traders See SOL Extending Gains, Surpassing $200 by End-June
SOL, the native cryptocurrency of the Solana programmable blockchain has staged a sharp four-week rally, surging 85% since April 7 — more than double the pace of bitcoin (BTC) — and large options traders are positioning for further gains. The token climbed to around $176 in recent days as crypto and traditional markets embraced a greater degree of risk. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has climbed 40%, CoinDesk data show. The gains are unlikely to reverse in the near future, if block traders — primarily institutions and market participants that execute large trading orders over the counter and outside of the public order book — are correct. They have snapped up the Deribit-listed June 27 expiry SOL $200 call option in large numbers, a sign they expect the price to rise above that level before the end of the first half. "Traders also got long the $200 June expiration last week. This was the biggest block trade, trading 50,000x contracts in total for $263,000 in premium," Greg Magadini, the director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. On Deribit, one options contract represents one SOL. A call option gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market. It's like buying a lottery ticket, where the holder has the chance to make significant gains if they win, while risking only the initial amount paid for purchasing the ticket. Magadini added that these call options were snapped up at an annualized implied volatility (IV) of 84%. In other words, traders timed it perfectly, snapping up calls while they were cheap as SOL's IV typically hovers in triple digits. Data shows that the demand for the $200 call option has left market makers or dealers with a significant net negative gamma exposure at the strike price. Market makers with a net negative gamma exposure typically buy as prices rise and sell during dips, aiming to rebalance their portfolios toward a delta-neutral, or market-neutral, position. Their hedging activities often amplify market swings. So it's likely volatility will pick up as SOL potentially crosses the $200 mark.
Business Mayor
28-04-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Solana: Why THIS analytics firm expects SOL to hit $200 in May
Amberdata's Greg Magadini projected SOL could hit $200 in May. Whale interest was positive but stagnant, with $160 as a key hurdle to overcome. According to crypto options analytics firm Amberdata, there were higher odds of Solana [SOL] crossing $200 by the end of May. In the firm's weekly market report, Greg Magadini, Amberdata's Director of Derivatives, wrote , 'The underlying spot market is going to dictate the market for now, hence, I still think buying these $200 5/30 calls as a great way to capture the edge.' Call options are bullish bets on an asset's future price targets (strike price). On the other hand, put options are deemed bearish bets on future price declines of the asset. SOL — Decoding $200 price target Source: Amberdata According to Magadini, dealers (market makers) were going long at the Gamma Level of $200, making it a key level to watch. Still, dealers couldn't cap SOL's likely rally from hitting the level because the asset's option market was still relatively small compared to the spot market. Additionally, he noted that implied volatility (expected future price swings) dropped significantly compared to the past weeks. This meant buying call options now, targeting the end of May, was cheaper and a 'decent' play, reiterated Magadini. 'Volatility has come down a lot…Again, a good argument for owning the $200 calls 30-days out.' He further pointed out that the rotation trend from ETH to SOL and pro-crypto SEC could be tailwinds for SOL's outperformance. AMBCrypto confirmed the SOL/ETH outlook. From the beginning of this cycle in late 2023, the SOL/ETH ratio has rallied and formed an ascending channel. This meant SOL outperformed ETH over the past few months. Source: SOL/ETH, TradingView In April alone, SOL's price performance outpaced ETH by about 28%. The trend could remain intact for the next few months or weeks unless the channel is broken. On the price chart, SOL saw increased whale interest, as illustrated by the Whale vs. Retail Delta indicator turning green. However, whale positions haven't increased as much as the price approached the $160 hurdle. For bulls to target $200, the $160 resistance must be cleared.
Yahoo
22-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6-Month High as U.S. Economic Uncertainty Drives Market Instability
Bitcoin's price volatility has hit a six-month high, mainly due to macroeconomic concerns such as trade tensions, inflation risks, and economic uncertainty in the U.S. The cryptocurrency's 30-day volatility reached 3.6% on Wednesday, up from 1.6% a month ago, according to CoinGlass. While lower than last year's peak of 4.3%, this increase signals that Bitcoin's price fluctuations are likely to continue. Analysts, including Greg Magadini of Amberdata, attribute this to broader economic concerns, including Trump's trade policies and inflation fears. Magadini noted that this high-volatility environment will likely continue until we have further clarity on how tariffs will impact inflation and interest rates. Bitcoin's price has fallen 10% over the last month, and more than 20% from its all-time high of over $108,000 in January, according to CoinMarketCap. While Bitcoin's volatility is expected to reduce over time as the asset matures, it remains strongly correlated with the stock market, adding to its current price instability. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, recently surged to nearly 30, its highest level since August. The S&P 500 has also lost all of its gains since the 2024 elections. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledging 'unusually high' macroeconomic uncertainty. He also noted that efforts to control inflation might be delayed due to Trump's tariffs, potentially leading to higher rates for a longer period. This policy uncertainty has contributed to a more cautious investment environment, with many reducing portfolio risk. Despite Bitcoin's price decline, Grayscale's Zach Pandl pointed out that nothing has changed about its long-term outlook as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. Pandl suggested that the current pullback in Bitcoin's price could present a good entry point for new investors. Last year, Bitcoin's price surged when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, which traditionally benefits risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing liquidity. However, with the current volatility, Grayscale views this as a temporary setback in an otherwise promising future for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Sign in to access your portfolio
