Solana: Why THIS analytics firm expects SOL to hit $200 in May

Business Mayor

28-04-2025

Amberdata's Greg Magadini projected SOL could hit $200 in May.
Whale interest was positive but stagnant, with $160 as a key hurdle to overcome.
According to crypto options analytics firm Amberdata, there were higher odds of Solana [SOL] crossing $200 by the end of May.
In the firm's weekly market report, Greg Magadini, Amberdata's Director of Derivatives, wrote ,
'The underlying spot market is going to dictate the market for now, hence, I still think buying these $200 5/30 calls as a great way to capture the edge.'
Call options are bullish bets on an asset's future price targets (strike price). On the other hand, put options are deemed bearish bets on future price declines of the asset.
SOL — Decoding $200 price target
Source: Amberdata
According to Magadini, dealers (market makers) were going long at the Gamma Level of $200, making it a key level to watch.
Still, dealers couldn't cap SOL's likely rally from hitting the level because the asset's option market was still relatively small compared to the spot market.
Additionally, he noted that implied volatility (expected future price swings) dropped significantly compared to the past weeks. This meant buying call options now, targeting the end of May, was cheaper and a 'decent' play, reiterated Magadini.
'Volatility has come down a lot…Again, a good argument for owning the $200 calls 30-days out.'
He further pointed out that the rotation trend from ETH to SOL and pro-crypto SEC could be tailwinds for SOL's outperformance. AMBCrypto confirmed the SOL/ETH outlook.
From the beginning of this cycle in late 2023, the SOL/ETH ratio has rallied and formed an ascending channel. This meant SOL outperformed ETH over the past few months.
Source: SOL/ETH, TradingView
In April alone, SOL's price performance outpaced ETH by about 28%. The trend could remain intact for the next few months or weeks unless the channel is broken.
On the price chart, SOL saw increased whale interest, as illustrated by the Whale vs. Retail Delta indicator turning green.
However, whale positions haven't increased as much as the price approached the $160 hurdle. For bulls to target $200, the $160 resistance must be cleared.