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Trump's $6 Trillion Tariff Shock: Is a Global Recession About to Begin?
Trump's $6 Trillion Tariff Shock: Is a Global Recession About to Begin?

Yahoo

time01-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Trump's $6 Trillion Tariff Shock: Is a Global Recession About to Begin?

01 April 2025 - Markets are on high alert as President Trump gears up to announce sweeping new tariffs at Wednesday's Liberation Day event in the Rose Garden. According to sources close to the matter, the plan includes a blanket 20% tariff on nearly all imported goodsa dramatic shift that would mark the most aggressive overhaul of U.S. trade policy in decades. Trump says the goal is to rebalance what he calls a rigged global system, with over $6 trillion in revenue potentially redirected to U.S. households via tax rebates. While no final call has been made, the President has floated additional sector-specific hikesincluding a 25% tariff on autosand insists these tariffs will be reciprocal. Wall Street isn't buying the optimism. The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) just wrapped their worst quarter since 2022, wiping out $5 trillion in market value since mid-February. Companies deeply integrated into global supply chainslike Tesla (TSLA)are especially vulnerable, as investors anticipate retaliation from allies and rivals alike. Canada has already pledged a response, while the EU is reportedly weighing action against major U.S. tech firms. Gold just hit an all-time high as traders ditch risk for safety, and global factories are rushing to ship goods before the tariffs kick in. But the real story might just be the economic fallout. Moody's (NYSE:MCO) sees a worst-case scenario where the U.S. tips into a year-long recession, unemployment peaks at 7.3%, and five million jobs vanish by early 2027. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is now projecting just 1% GDP growth by year's end, and economists across the board are calling the plan reckless. This is the most wrongheaded economic policy we've seen from a White House in decades, said Harvard's Greg Mankiw. While the White House claims these tariffs are about restoring fairness, critics say they'll hit American consumers hardestraising prices, slashing corporate profits, and potentially setting off a global trade war. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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