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Yahoo
7 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Simulated Chinese blockade of Taiwan reveals Singapore as lifeline
Simulated Chinese blockade of Taiwan reveals Singapore as lifeline By Greg Torode, Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee HONG KONG/TAIPEI (Reuters) -The exercise presented a fraught scenario: China's military had blockaded Taiwan by air and sea, and Southeast Asian countries were grappling with how to evacuate as many as 1 million of their nationals trapped on the besieged island. Over two days in April at a Singapore hotel, some 40 participants and observers in the war game, including serving and retired Asia-Pacific officials and military officers, as well as security scholars, simulated their responses to the unfolding crisis, according to four people familiar with the discussions. Hours ticked by as some players weighed unified action through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while others reached out to the mock U.S., Chinese and Japanese delegates to negotiate special air and sea corridors to extract foreign nationals. Eventually, the people said, a stark conclusion emerged: The Southeast Asian states needed a Singaporean airlift to have a chance of evacuating their people. "Nothing was moving until the Singaporeans stepped in at the 11th hour," said one participant in the event at the Jen Singapore Tanglin hotel. "They had found a way of getting their own people out, and offered to get others out, too." Reflecting its discreet and decades-old security presence inside Taiwan, where its forces train, Singapore was able to leverage access to airfields and aircraft, the person said. But the exercise ended before any detailed discussion of how Singapore had reached a deal with China to secure an evacuation route through the blockade, or how precisely it would work, three of the people told Reuters. The previously unreported exercise comes amid an escalating battle between the U.S. and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a rare window into contingency planning over Taiwan, which some Asian and Western military attaches and security analysts say is becoming increasingly necessary because an assault on the island by Beijing could draw in the U.S. and imperil other countries. While the scenario didn't reflect official policies, participants playing the roles of foreign and defence ministers worked from the known positions of at least nine governments depicted in the simulation, said the four people, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. Besides Singapore, China, Taiwan and the U.S., the rest included Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, they said. Southeast Asians account for about 94% of the almost 1 million foreign nationals resident in Taiwan, according to Taiwan's National Immigration Agency. Indonesians, Vietnamese and Filipinos make up the vast majority of those foreigners, with comparatively small numbers of Japanese and Americans. Singapore's defence ministry said it wasn't involved in the "workshop" and none of its officials attended in any capacity. Neither the defence nor foreign ministries addressed Reuters questions about Singapore's military presence in Taiwan and planning for Taiwan conflict scenarios, including evacuations. China's foreign ministry said it had "always resolutely opposed countries with whom it has diplomatic relations having any form of official relations with the Taiwan region, including military dialogue and cooperation," adding that it wasn't aware of the circumstances of the exercise. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which organised the exercise, told Reuters in a statement that participants had attended in their private capacities, and that it could not comment on "discussions, attendees, or any other elements." Taiwan's defence ministry and the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta didn't respond to questions. A Pentagon official said they were not aware of any official participation in the event by the U.S. Defense Department. "We routinely engage with allies and partners to ensure readiness for a range of contingencies, but it would be inappropriate to discuss operational planning or hypothetical evacuation scenarios," the official said. Weeks after the exercise, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a security conference in Singapore that the threat of China using force to take Taiwan was "imminent" amid intensifying air and naval operations around the island by the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army. Chinese officials have said Hegseth and other Trump administration officials are playing up "the so-called China threat", with the Chinese embassy in Singapore saying his speech was "steeped in provocations and instigation". China claims Taiwan as its territory and has never renounced the use of force to seize it. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te and his government strongly object to China's sovereignty claims, saying it is up to the island's people to decide their future. Drew Thompson, a Singapore-based security scholar, said it was vital for Southeast Asian countries to move beyond war games and contingency discussions to build meaningful, unofficial ties with Taiwan, particularly its military. These countries have diplomatic ties with Beijing and don't officially recognise Taipei. "The big takeaway here is that a plan is one thing but you need the access and the relationships to put it into play," said Thompson, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, who wasn't involved in the exercise. "Singapore has long had these ties, the Philippines is building them, but it remains an open question whether the other countries in Southeast Asia have the unofficial networks in place to meaningfully engage with Taiwan in a conflict." The Philippines foreign ministry told Reuters the government has contingency plans for a Taiwan emergency, without offering specifics. It added that Manila has "legitimate interest in Taiwan due to geographic proximity and the presence of Filipino nationals there". The foreign ministries of Indonesia and Vietnam didn't respond to requests for comment. Japan's defence ministry declined to comment. 'USEFUL PERCH' Given recent drills in which Chinese vessels encircled Taiwan, some military attaches and analysts say any attempt by Beijing to seize the island could start with a blockade, which would be considered an act of war under international law. The risks are felt acutely in Singapore, a financial and shipping hub that hosts U.S. Navy ships and surveillance aircraft yet maintains strong cultural, diplomatic and economic ties with China. Singaporean forces have conducted military training in Taiwan since 1975, under an arrangement known as Project Starlight. The presence is seldom publicly acknowledged by officials in Singapore, which does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. But it remains important to Singapore's defence forces, according to seven diplomats and security scholars familiar with the matter. Singapore rotates up to 3,000 infantry troops and commandos annually through three training camps in southern Taiwan, according to five of the seven people, where the mountains and jungles replicate conditions found on the Malay Peninsula. "It gives Singapore a useful perch from which to watch both the Taiwan Strait and the top part of the South China Sea," said one Western security official. China has long objected to the arrangement. But Singapore has held fast, in part because a withdrawal would represent a change to the delicate strategic and diplomatic balance around Taiwan, three of the scholars told Reuters. Singapore's forces also train regularly in Australia, France, Brunei and the U.S. The city-state has the best-equipped military in Southeast Asia, according to an annual survey of the world's armed forces produced by the IISS. Yet an outbreak of war in Taiwan could trap Singapore's forces there or render them bargaining chips that could give China military and diplomatic leverage over Singapore, according to some analysts and military attaches. In a conflict, Southeast Asian governments would face an arduous task in evacuating their nationals from Taiwan, Ngeow Chow Bing, a Malaysia-based security scholar, wrote in a study published last year by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But, Ngeow wrote, Beijing has clear incentives to ensure that most, if not all, ASEAN members remain neutral. "If Beijing cares how it is perceived in Southeast Asia during a Taiwan crisis, it follows that Beijing would view the evacuation of Southeast Asian citizens as crucial for its own diplomatic posture," he added.
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NZ defence minister pledges more deployments, co-operation
By Greg Torode SINGAPORE (Reuters) -New Zealand is seeking to expand Asia-Pacific military deployments in its quest to show it was now "pulling our weight" with increased spending on its armed forces, the South Pacific nation's defence minister said in Singapore on Friday. Defence minister Judith Collins raised the prospect of welcoming increased warship visits to the country, deepening joint training and other cooperative efforts with its traditional defence partners including ally Australia, the United States, Singapore, Japan, Britain and the Philippines. "So we're open for business, we're back in the world and we're pulling our weight," Collins told Reuters on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue defence meeting in Singapore. The New Zealand government announced in April that it would boost defence spending by NZ$9 billion ($5 billion) over the next four years, with the aim of nearly doubling spending to 2% as a share of gross domestic product in the next eight years amid growing international tensions. The new spending is a significant boost to the defence budget of just under NZ$5 billion in 2024/25, and follows its first national security review in 2023. The review called for more military spending and stronger ties with Indo-Pacific nations to tackle issues of climate change and strategic competition between the West, and China and Russia. The USS Blue Ridge, the command ship of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, visited Wellington earlier this month and further visits from partners could be expected, Collins said. The ship was just the third U.S. warship to visit in 40 years. When asked about Chinese concerns at New Zealand's more assertive military posture, she said Beijing realised Wellington had "actually got a spine", but "I don't think China stays awake at night worrying about us." "I don't think we're any threat to China, or anyone else really," Collins said, describing relations with China, an important trading partner, as "very mature". Regional military attaches and analysts say that after years of relative neglect, New Zealand still had to improve its ability to sustainably project power given its small, ageing navy and air force but supporting its traditional relationships were key. Nuclear-free since the 1980s, New Zealand maintains an independent foreign policy but remains part of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing network with the United States, Britain, Australia and Canada. Deployments of its four new Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft are being closely watched, given how they can help other countries plug gaps in the hunt for Chinese submarines, analysts say. Collins said New Zealand and Australian pilots now had the ability to fly each other's P-8 and transport planes - a sign of growing "interoperability" in action. Collins said the P-8s had already flown up towards Canada and she expected further patrols in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. "I think you'll see quite a lot of that," she said. "We go everywhere. Everywhere where we're wanted we go, if we can."
Japan Today
28-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Today
China's most advanced bombers seen on disputed South China Sea island
A KJ-500 early warning plane along with Y-20 transport aircraft are parked on the tarmac of an airfield on Woody Island, in the disputed Paracel archipelago, which is known in China as Xisha Islands, South China Sea, May 19, 2025. MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES/Handout via REUTERS By Greg Torode Satellite imagery shows China landed two of its most advanced bombers in the disputed Paracel islands in the South China Sea this month - a gesture that some analysts described as Beijing's latest signaling of its growing military capabilities to rivals. The deployment marks the first time the long-range H-6 bombers have landed on Woody Island in the Paracels since 2020, and the movement of the now upgraded aircraft comes amid tensions with the Philippines, operations near Taiwan and ahead of the region's biggest defense forum this weekend. "China's long-range bombers don't need to be on the Paracels so it does appear to be omni-directional signalling by Beijing - against the Philippines and against the U.S. and other things that are going on," said Collin Koh, a defence scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. French President Emmanuel Macron is due to open the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue forum in Singapore with a speech on Friday while U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will outline the Trump administration's approach to the region on Saturday. A British aircraft carrier is expected in the South China Sea on a rare deployment next month, diplomats captured two H-6 planes flying over the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal, also in the South China Sea, just ahead of Hegseth's visit to the Philippines in late March, when he reaffirmed the United States' "ironclad commitment" to its treaty ally. Regional diplomats and analysts say deployments of the jet-powered H-6 are closely scrutinised, given the way its Cold War-era airframe has been modernised to carry anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles, while some of the planes are capable of launching nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. A potential threat to U.S. bases in the region, H-6 bombers were deployed in wargames around Taiwan in October, and in July flew close to the U.S. mainland for the first time. Neither China's defence ministry nor the Philippines' maritime and national security council immediately responded to Reuters' requests for comment. China's occupation of the Paracels is disputed by Vietnam, whose foreign ministry also did not immediately respond for comment. SOVIET DESIGN Echoing the development of the U.S. B-52, the basic H-6 dates back to 1950s Soviet designs but it remains China's most advanced long-range bomber having been re-fitted with improved engines and modern flight systems along with its state-of-the-art weaponry. Images provided to Reuters by Maxar Technologies show two H-6 bombers on a runway on Woody Island on May 19. Another Maxar image on the same date show two Y-20 transport aircraft and an KJ-500 early warning plane - an aircraft that is seen as vital to China being able to control and secure increasingly complex air and sea operations. Some analysts said the planes may have first arrived on May 17 and been present until May 23. Ben Lewis, founder of open source data platform PLATracker, said they thought it was unlikely that the H-6s would be deployed long-term on Woody Island or be permanently based there. "The ability to cycle forces through the bases, especially higher level assets like the H-6, provides the PLA with a force protection mechanism," he said, referring to China's People's Liberation Army. China's Southern Theatre Command, which covers the South China Sea, maintains two regiments of the bombers, according to the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies. The bombers are generally kept at heavily fortified bases on the Chinese mainland, where they would have more protection in a conflict from U.S. attacks in conflict scenarios. The U.S. maintains jet fighter wings in Japan, including on its forward deployed aircraft carrier, and on Guam, which is also home to B-52s. China claims sovereignty over nearly all the South China Sea, including areas claimed by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. A 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal found Beijing's sweeping claims had no basis under international law, a decision China rejects. © Thomson Reuters 2025.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
Exclusive-China's most advanced bombers seen on disputed South China Sea island
By Greg Torode HONG KONG (Reuters) -Satellite imagery shows China landed two of its most advanced bombers in the disputed Paracel islands in the South China Sea this month - a gesture that some analysts described as Beijing's latest signalling of its growing military capabilities to rivals. The deployment marks the first time the long-range H-6 bombers have landed on Woody Island in the Paracels since 2020, and the movement of the now upgraded aircraft comes amid tensions with the Philippines, operations near Taiwan and ahead of the region's biggest defence forum this weekend. "China's long-range bombers don't need to be on the Paracels so it does appear to be omni-directional signalling by Beijing - against the Philippines and against the U.S. and other things that are going on," said Collin Koh, a defence scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. French President Emmanuel Macron is due to open the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue forum in Singapore with a speech on Friday while U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth will outline the Trump administration's approach to the region on Saturday. A British aircraft carrier is expected in the South China Sea on a rare deployment next month, diplomats captured two H-6 planes flying over the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal, also in the South China Sea, just ahead of Hegseth's visit to the Philippines in late March, when he reaffirmed the United States' "ironclad commitment" to its treaty ally. Regional diplomats and analysts say deployments of the jet-powered H-6 are closely scrutinised, given the way its Cold War-era airframe has been modernised to carry anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles, while some of the planes are capable of launching nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. A potential threat to U.S. bases in the region, H-6 bombers were deployed in wargames around Taiwan in October, and in July flew close to the U.S. mainland for the first time. Neither China's defence ministry nor the Philippines' maritime and national security council immediately responded to Reuters' requests for comment. China's occupation of the Paracels is disputed by Vietnam, whose foreign ministry also did not immediately respond for comment. SOVIET DESIGN Echoing the development of the U.S. B-52, the basic H-6 dates back to 1950s Soviet designs but it remains China's most advanced long-range bomber having been re-fitted with improved engines and modern flight systems along with its state-of-the-art weaponry. Images provided to Reuters by Maxar Technologies show two H-6 bombers on a runway on Woody Island on May 19. Another Maxar image on the same date show two Y-20 transport aircraft and an KJ-500 early warning plane - an aircraft that is seen as vital to China being able to control and secure increasingly complex air and sea operations. Some analysts said the planes may have first arrived on May 17 and been present until May 23. Ben Lewis, founder of open source data platform PLATracker, said they thought it was unlikely that the H-6s would be deployed long-term on Woody Island or be permanently based there. "The ability to cycle forces through the bases, especially higher level assets like the H-6, provides the PLA with a force protection mechanism," he said, referring to China's People's Liberation Army. China's Southern Theatre Command, which covers the South China Sea, maintains two regiments of the bombers, according to the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies. The bombers are generally kept at heavily fortified bases on the Chinese mainland, where they would have more protection in a conflict from U.S. attacks in conflict scenarios. The U.S. maintains jet fighter wings in Japan, including on its forward deployed aircraft carrier, and on Guam, which is also home to B-52s. China claims sovereignty over nearly all the South China Sea, including areas claimed by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. A 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal found Beijing's sweeping claims had no basis under international law, a decision China rejects.
Japan Today
28-05-2025
- Business
- Japan Today
Asia boosts weapons buys, military research as security outlook darkens
FILE PHOTO: A mock model of the FFM "Upgraded Mogami" class is displayed during the Defence Security Equipment International (DSEI) Japan at Makuhari Messe in Chiba, east of Tokyo, Japan May 21, 2025. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo By Greg Torode and Jun Yuan Yong Spending on weapons and research is spiking among some Asian countries as they respond to a darkening security outlook by broadening their outside industrial partnerships while trying to boost their own defense industries, a new study has found. The annual Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment released on Wednesday by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said outside industrial help remains vital even as regional nations ultimately aim for self-reliance. "Recent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with worsening U.S.-China strategic competition and deterioration of the Asia-Pacific security landscape, may lead to a rising tide of defense-industrial partnerships," it read. "Competitive security dynamics over simmering flashpoints ... feed into the need to develop military capabilities to address them." Spending on defense procurement and research and development rose $2.7 billion between 2022 and 2024, it showed, to reach $10.5 billion among Southeast Asia's key nations of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The spike comes even as the nations spent an average of 1.5% of GDP on defense in 2024, a figure that has kept relatively constant over the last decade. The study, released ahead of this weekend's annual Shangri-La Dialogue defense meeting in Singapore, said Asia-Pacific nations still rely on imports for most key weapons and equipment. Such items range from submarines and combat aircraft to drones, missiles and advanced electronics for surveillance and intelligence gathering. The informal Singapore gathering of global defense and military officials is expected to be dominated by uncertainties stemming from the protracted Ukraine conflict, Trump administration security policies and regional tension over Taiwan and the disputed busy waterway of the South China Sea. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are increasingly active and making inroads, the study said, though European companies have a prominent and expanding regional presence, via technology transfer, joint ventures and licenced assembly deals. The UAE now operates a diversified network of collaborators, such as China's NORINCO weapons giant and rival India's Hindustan Aeronautics. Joint development operations are not always easy, the study said, offering lessons from India's two-decade collaboration with Russia to produce the BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missile. While the feared weapon is fielded by India, exports have been hampered by lack of a clear strategy, with deliveries to its first third-party customer, the Philippines, starting only in 2024, the study added. Closer Russia-China ties could further complicate the weapon's development, particularly if Moscow chooses to prioritize ties with Beijing to develop a hypersonic version of the missile. © Thomson Reuters 2025.
