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Sky News AU
23-06-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Iran orders closure of Strait of Hormuz - putting one-fifth of world's oil supply at risk
Iran's parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping channel through which around 20% of the world's daily oil flows. The move, which could block $1 billion in oil shipments per day, is likely to send oil prices soaring. It will come into effect pending a final decision by Iran's Supreme Council. The Supreme Council's decision must be made by tonight, according to Iran's state-run Press TV. Iran's major escalation in response to US strikes on its nuclear facilities 'will be done whenever necessary,' Email Kosari, Commander in the Revolutionary Guards, said on Sunday. The strait connecting the Gulf of Oman with the Persian Gulf is one of the world's most critical chokepoints — just 20 miles wide at its narrowest point. Shipping lanes in the strait — the area that is deep enough for ships to pass — are even narrower at less than two miles wide in each direction, making them much more vulnerable to attacks and threats of closure. The channel is shallow, making it a particular target for underwater mining, while the narrowness of the strait makes passing vessels vulnerable to attack from shore-based missiles or interception by patrol boats or helicopters. 'Iran would most likely pursue a multi-layered asymmetric strategy rather than attempting an outright naval blockade,' Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum told The Post. 'Their primary approach would involve rapidly deploying naval mines across the shipping lanes—this is their most effective tool for immediate disruption. They'd simultaneously launch anti-ship missiles from mobile coastal batteries like their Ghader and Nasir systems, targeting oil tankers from distances up to [185 miles].' Iran has no legal authority to block sea traffic through Hormuz, and any attempts by its navy to bar entry to the strait would likely be met by a strong response. Ships with the US Fifth Fleet, along with other Western navies, are patrolling the area at all times. It is bordered by Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. The bulk of all oil exported by the regional petro giants, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, all travel through this narrow waterway. Asia is likely to bear the brunt most from any closures to the waterway, with China, India, Japan and South Korea all getting most of their oil imports through the strait. China, the world's biggest buyer of Iranian oil and a critical partner that has previously used its veto power at the UN Security Council to block sanctions or resolutions against Tehran, would be particularly affected by any closure. The move would also hit Iran's own economy. 'Any closure attempt would be temporary and ultimately self-destructive. Iran depends on the strait for its own vital imports and knows that such action would trigger an overwhelming response from the US 5th Fleet, which maintains detailed operational plans for exactly this scenario,' Roman said. 'It would amount to economic suicide while alienating China, their primary oil customer. Tehran understands this calculus, which is why the threat remains more valuable as leverage than as an actual course of action.' Iran last disrupted traffic in the Persian Gulf in April last year when it seized an Israel-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, accusing the MSC Aries of violating maritime regulations. In April 2023, Iran seized a US-bound tanker, claiming the ship had struck another vessel. And in May 2022, two Greek tankers were held for six months in what was widely seen as retaliation to the confiscation of Iranian oil on a different ship by Greek and US authorities. In previous years, the Houthi militia in Yemen was able to successfully disrupt traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait leading into the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. Using the firing of missiles and drones, the Houthis were able to cut ship traffic through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden some 70% in June compared with the average levels in 2022 and 2023, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd, a unit of the world's largest shipbroker. Vessel operators have been forced instead to reroute traffic around the southern tip of Africa instead of using the Suez Canal, making journeys for ships traveling between Europe and Asia vastly more expensive and much longer. Iran's Navy was likely to employ the same tactics previously used by the Houthis, along with cyber attacks and other sabotage operations, Roman added. 'The IRGC Navy would execute their proven 'swarm' tactics, using hundreds of small, fast boats armed with missiles and explosives to overwhelm defenses,' he said. 'We'd also see extensive use of suicide drones and explosive-laden unmanned boats, tactics they've perfected through their Houthi proxies in the Red Sea. 'Iran would likely pursue several additional avenues: cyber attacks on port infrastructure and shipping navigation systems, activation of regional proxies to create multiple crisis points and stretch U.S. forces, sabotage operations against Saudi and UAE oil facilities, and potentially targeting Gulf states' desalination plants to pressure them against supporting American operations,' he added. Originally published as Iran orders closure of Strait of Hormuz - putting one-fifth of world's oil supply at risk
New York Post
14-06-2025
- Politics
- New York Post
Israel likely launched its attack on Iran after learning the Islamic Republic was close to building a nuke
Israel launched its missile barrage on Iran this week because the theocratic regime was on the brink of building a crude nuclear device, experts said. Iran was pulling together materials 'in a secret place near Tehran to make a primitive warhead,' Beni Sabti of the Institute of National Security Studies told Fox News Digital, the likely impetus for Israel's launch of 'Operation Rising Lion' — a plan that has been ready to go since April. Tehran also recently announced that it had built and would activate a third nuclear enrichment facility — prompting the UN's atomic watchdog agency to censure Iran. 4 Israel fired airstrikes against Iran as experts say the theocratic regime was on the verge of building a nuclear device. Airbus defense and space. Experts further claim that Iran has recently continued a concerning level of weapons production. 'Iran reactivated an explosives manufacturing line, which could only be used to help that needed nuclear weapon… efforts to put the fissile material into a shape which could be used for a nuclear weapon — that was reactivated as well,' Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, told Fox. Just hours before Israel's historic strike Thursday, Iran announced the creation of a new enrichment facility, and the beefing up of existing enrichment operations, in a defiant response to a UN watchdog's report that censured the nation for shirking nonproliferation agreements. 'The President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has issued necessary directives for launching a new enrichment facility in a secure location,' the statement issued jointly by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and AEO on Thursday read. 'And replacing first-generation centrifuges at the Martyr Ali Mohammadi (Fordo) enrichment center with advanced sixth-generation machines.' Later that same day, Israel launched its onslaught — striking key nuclear infrastructure sites across Iran, including in Tehran, in an attack that targeted the 'heart' of Iran's weaponization program, according to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu revealed that Israel has been prepared to strike Iran since April — after issuing such threats for the past 20 years — and that the plans were conceived to address the 'clear and present danger to Israel's very survival.' 4 Tehran recently stated that they have built a third nuclear enrichment facility. AFP via Getty Images Earlier Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nation's nuclear watchdog, passed a resolution declaring Iran in non-compliance with nuclear non-proliferation agreements — the first resolution against Iran in 20 years. The resolution was put forth by the United States, Britain, France and Germany and passed with 19 out of 35 votes with only Russia, China and Burkina Faso voting against the condemnation. Of the remainder, 11 nations abstained and two did not vote. IAEA alleged that Iran has consistently failed to demonstrate to agency inspectors that its nuclear material was not being diverted for military use, United Nations news reported. The agency wrote in the statement that it found man-made uranium particles at three sites in Iran during inspections in 2020 and 2019 — and that the nation has repeatedly failed to explain their presence and even attempted to sanitize the facilities to forestall investigators. Iran has further stockpiled over 881 pounds of highly enriched uranium which the IAEA stated was 'of serious concern and adds to the complexity' of the issues. Iran condemned the IAEA's report and resolution as 'highly politicized and biased' and suggested the resolution was a stain on the watchdog's reputation. 4 Merrill Sherman / NY Post Design 'The move by these four countries severely undermines the credibility and standing of the IAEA, further exposing the politicized nature of the international body,' Thursday's statement from the MoFA and AEO read. President Trump is imploring Iran to make a deal on its nuclear energy program following the failure to come to terms in recent weeks. 'I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to 'just do it,' but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn't get it done,' Trump wrote on Truth Social Friday. 'Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!,' the president concluded. 4 Israel launched the airstrike on Thursday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they had been prepared to strike the neighboring country since April. X/IsraeliPM Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blasted the recently offered nuclear deal in a television address last week, calling US leaders 'arrogant' and the stipulated terms of the deal '100% against' the interests of Tehran. Keep up with today's most important news Stay up on the very latest with Evening Update. Thanks for signing up! Enter your email address Please provide a valid email address. By clicking above you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Never miss a story. Check out more newsletters A sixth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US were set to take place Sunday in Oman. Following Israel's airstrikes Thursday on Iranian nuclear sites, the IAEA issued a statement condemning the attacks. 'This development is deeply concerning. I have repeatedly stated that nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances, as it could harm both people and the environment,' IAEA Director General Mariano Grossi, said in a statement Friday. 'Such attacks have serious implications for nuclear safety, security and safeguards, as well as regional and international peace and security,' Grossi added. The agency reported it was in contact with Iranian nuclear officials and that there have been no reports of elevated radiation levels near the Natanz enrichment site, which was targeted in Thursday's bombings.
Bloomberg
13-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Businessweek: Iran Hits Back At Israel
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: Iran fired hundreds of missiles in retaliation for Israel's airstrikes that targeted Tehran's military and nuclear infrastructure, broadening a conflict that threatens to engulf the region and roil global markets. Israel said it identified missiles launched from the Islamic Republic and reported explosions from interceptions and falling debris from incoming projectiles. An Israeli official said US forces are helping to intercept the Iranian missiles. The Iranian attack, which Tehran said entailed hundreds of ballistic missiles, is the most forceful step yet by Tehran since Israel's overnight raids killed top Iranian generals and badly damaged key military infrastructure. While it's unclear if Israel's air defenses have been pierced, markets took another hit from the surge in tensions. US stocks fell to new session lows, oil prices extended their gains above 7%, while the US dollar and gold rose. This episode features: Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum Dana Stroul, Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Jay Neveloff, Partner and Chair of Real Estate, US at Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer Elissa Sangster, Chief Executive Officer of the Forté Foundation
Fox News
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
How close was Iran to a nuclear weapon before Israel's strike on Tehran?
Israel's airstrikes on Tehran, Iran, on Friday morning marked a dramatic escalation in the proxy war between the two regional rivals, reigniting one of the most consequential questions in international security: Just how close was Iran to building a nuclear weapon? While Israeli experts have warned for years that Iran was enriching uranium at a level that put it "weeks away" from a nuclear weapon, in recent days, there has been a shift. According to Israeli intelligence sources, Iran was on the verge of assembling a crude nuclear device. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute of National Security Studies, told Fox News Digital the threat was urgent and specific: Tehran was pulling its materials together "in a secret place near Tehran to make a primitive warhead." Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, said that since the Trump administration reinitiated nuclear negotiations, Israel had been collecting fresh intelligence that raised alarm bells. "There were a few things that stood out," Roman said, referencing activity at the Times Enrichment facility. "Iran reactivated an explosives manufacturing line, which could only be used to help that needed nuclear weapon… efforts to put the fissile material into a shape which could be used for a nuclear weapon – that was reactivated as well." Roman added that these developments mirrored work Iran halted in 2003, when it froze its military nuclear program. Experts believe Iran is enriching uranium to 60%, which puts it just below the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon, and have said there is no civilian use for 60% enriched uranium. However, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate worldwide threats hearing in April Iran is not moving toward a nuclear weapon. "The IC [intelligence community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapon program that he suspended in 2003," she said. "The IC continues to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program. In the past year, we've seen an erosion in the decades-long taboo in Iran of discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus," Gabbard said. President Donald Trump on Friday noted he gave Iran a 60-day "ultimatum" to make a deal, and Friday was day 61. Nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran were scheduled for this weekend, but whether those talks will carry on as planned remains unclear. Not everyone is convinced Iran is actively building a bomb. Rosemary Kelanic, a political scientist and nuclear deterrence expert, urged caution about the narrative coming from Israeli officials. "Those in favor of this attack, including Israel, are going to do everything they can to try to make it look like Iran was on precipice of a bomb," Kelanic said. "But we need to be really critical in our thinking." U.S. intelligence assessments, she noted, have consistently judged that Iran was not pursuing an active weaponization program, even though it possessed enough enriched uranium to build a bomb. "Iran could have built a bomb back in 2022 if not earlier, and chose not to. That's the reason that I think they don't have one now." However, Kelanic warned that the Israeli strikes might push Iran to reconsider that restraint. "Their best path forward now, tragically, is to run a crash program and test a nuclear device as soon as they possibly can," she said. "Super risky to do that, but then maybe they can establish some kind of deterrence from Israel." The competing intelligence narratives reflect deep uncertainty about Iran's intentions and even more uncertainty about what comes next. While Israel argues that its strikes disrupted a dangerous escalation, critics fear they may have accelerated it. Kelanic suggested that even if the U.S. and Iran had come to a deal on Tehran's nuclear program, Israel may still have carried out strikes on Iran. "They just wouldn't trust that Iran would actually give up nuclear weapons, right?" she said. "If you think that they truly can never have it, and it's an existential threat to Israel, etc, then the only thing you can do is either completely wreck Iran as a functioning state, turn it into a failed state, unable to ever get nuclear weapons." For now, time will tell whether Israel's strikes decimate Iran's nuclear capabilities or the decades-long threat will continue.
