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The Independent
02-04-2025
- Sport
- The Independent
Grand National tips: Experts' best bets and 13 horses to watch on day one at Aintree
The Grand National Festival is almost here with the three-day festival at Aintree poised to provide some thrilling racing. Last year's winner I Am Maximus, trained by the legendary Willie Mullins, is back and among the main contenders eyeing up glory, while Iroko, Stumptown, Hewick, Intense Raffles and Vanillier are also heavily fancied by tipsters and experts. I Am Maximus is attempting to create history as the first runner carrying top weight to win since three-time winner Red Rum in the 1970s, while only Tiger Roll has defended the title, in 2019, since then. But before that, we'll look forward to a star-studded card on Thursday, which includes former champion hurdler Constitution Hill, who was upset at Cheltenham Festival last month, in a heavyweight clash with Lossiemouth in the Aintree Hurdle, with officials compensating for the dry conditions by watering the ground to ensure the going is good to soft. Day 1: Thursday, 3 April 1.45 Sam Turner's tips: Jango Baie – 2 points win @ 5/2 Gidleigh Park – 1 point win @ 11/2 Jango Baie pulled off one of the unlikeliest victories in the Arkle Chase seen for years when overhauling his four rivals in the dying strides to snatch a dramatic success. This step up in trip should really play to his strengths and he has a major chance of following up providing he jumps with a little more fluency than he did at Cheltenham. Gidleigh Park is reportedly a hard horse to keep right but the form of his Windsor win on easy ground took a handsome boost at the Festival when runner-up Caldwell Potter bolted up and the selection looks like another to relish the return to today's trip. 2.20 Sam Turner's tips: Puturhandstogether – 1 pt win @ 2/1 Filibustering – 1/2 pt ew @ 16/1 Winners of the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham are 0-5 in this event when attempting to follow up, but such was the manner of the gelding's victory in that fiercely contested handicap, that he could still take all the beating upped in class here. Wendrock was sixth despite not jumping either of the last two hurdles particularly cleanly so could finish a lot closer this time round, while Filibustering is worth a small each-way play with betting sites after impressing on his Kelso debut over hurdles. He reached a good level on the level and was very much at home on a flat, galloping track so Aintree should suit him. 2.55 Sam Turner's tips: Grey Dawning – 2 pts win @ 9/4 Connections of Grey Dawning have campaigned their grey son of Flemensfirth with this race in mind all season, so he narrowly gains the nod ahead of Spillane's Tower and Stage Star. A recent Kelso defeat of Iroko reads pretty well and conditions should be to the liking of the eight-year-old who appeared to get stuck in the mud in the Betfair Chase in his comeback last November. 3.30 Sam Turner's tips: Constitution Hill – 2 pts win @ 5/6 Take No Chances – 1 pt win @ 13/2 in the betting markets without Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth What to make of a horse like Constitution Hill? Brilliant on his day but, as we have seen in recent times, prone to the most calamitous blunder. The selection has reportedly undergone extensive schooling since his Cheltenham mistake and, although he has hasn't reached the heights of his 2023 Champion Hurdle success, the 2023 winner of this race did run out a comfortable winner at the expense of Lossiemouth when securing a third Christmas Hurdle success on his return, despite needing the run and is fancied to bounce back. The betting markets without the front two in the market are interesting with Wodhooh an understandably warm favourite following her Cheltenham win. However, Take No Chances finished off powerfully to take third from an uncompromising position in the race won by Lossiemouth and will probably be more conservatively ridden than Wodhooh so makes some appeal at 13/2 without the front two in the market. 4.05 Sam Turner's tips: My Drogo – 1 pt win @11/2 Milan Forth – 1/2 pt ew @ 14/1 (5 places) Not a race for the feint hearted this, but My Drogo was very well regarded in a former life with Dan Skelton – won a Grade 1 hurdle here four years ago – and remains of interest now he appears in good heart in this sphere. The presence of Will Biddick is another plus, and the selection should relish conditions. Milan Forth made a pleasing debut for Adrian Murray at Down Royal, travelling powerfully and jumping well before putting the race to bed. He looks the right type for a race of this nature and is worth supporting using the betting apps with five places on offer. 4.40 Sam Turner's tips: My Mate Mozzie – 1pt ew @ 11/2 – four places Calico – 1/2pt ew @ 11-1 – four places Cheekpieces could be the key to My Mate Mozzie producing his best and the expected strong gallop and good ground look ideal for him to deliver another big performance in a hot handicap. Calico is another well suited by spring conditions and it is worth remembering he was on the verge of chasing home Jonbon here two years ago only to tip up at the final fence. He posted a career best at Cheltenham in October on good ground and is another sure to relish an end-to-end gallop. 5.15 Sam Turner's tips: Jackie Hobbs – 1/2pt ew @ 15/2 Oldschool Outlaw – 1/2pt ew @ 25/1 Jackie Hobbs has been targeted at this event since scoring on her bumper debut at Ludlow and she did little at Ascot to dissuade the view that she should give another good account here. Her recent homework has been very encouraging. Oldschool Outlaw is a rather more left-field selection, but she was only overhauled late on at Leopardstown last month on her under rules debut and displayed a terrific attitude that day so is worth a small each-way play with betting sites offering four places or more.
The Guardian
28-02-2025
- Sport
- The Guardian
Favor And Fortune can take leg one in £100,000 Cheltenham festival bonus
The £100,000 bonus on offer if the winner of Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso can follow up in any race at the Cheltenham festival has turned what is already the richest handicap hurdle in Scotland into one of the most interesting and competitive events in the immediate run-up to National Hunt's showpiece meeting, and several of the sharpest trainers in the business have runners towards the head of the market for Saturday's renewal. Foremost among those is Emmet Mullins, who announced himself as one of the shrewdest handlers around – and well in advance of his Grand National success with Noble Yeats in 2022 – when The Shunter took the Morebattle in 2021 and then followed up in the Plate, one of the festival's most competitive handicap chases, less than a fortnight later. Mullins relies this year on the mare Vischio, who joined the yard after winning a competitive race at Punchestown in November and followed up on her first start for her new trainer in a stronger race at the Dublin Racing Festival. She showed an abrupt turn of foot to go five lengths clear at Leopardstown and given her trainer's well-earned reputation for priming a handicapper, it is no surprise to see her installed as the favourite in the early betting, not least as Mullins has gone to the trouble of entering her in three handicap hurdles at the festival. Her last two runs were off 111 and 119, however, and Vischio is a stone higher in the ratings on Saturday. She might yet prove to be thrown in even off 133, but this is an intensely competitive heat and there is little value in a price of around 5-1. Tellherthename and Alnilam have similar profiles at better odds but both are potential front-runners Chae Favour And Fortune (3.30), who is entered in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, could be the one to benefit if the leaders go off too fast. He ran an eye-catching race to finish fourth in Newbury's ultra-competitive William Hill Hurdle last time, will race off the same mark on Saturday and had enough class to finish sixth in last year's Supreme Novice Hurdle. Kelso 1.10 A wind op since his chase debut could make the difference for Kidman, who travelled like the best horse last time but faded in the closing stages. Newbury 1.20 Quick Wave has gone well fresh in the past and is an interesting debutant in veterans' events returning from another extended break. Kelso 1.45 Dan Skelton's Grey Dawning is the percentage call over Iroko, a leading Grand National contender, to bounce back from a disappointing showing in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. Doncaster 2.05 Grade One company was a step too far for World Of Fortunes at Leopardstown last time but she will be tough to beat dropping back to Listed level. Kelso 2.20 Young Jack goes well at this track, William Maggs is well worth his 5lb claim and early offers of around 20-1 are worth an each-way interest. Kelso: 1.10 Kidman 1.45 Grey Dawning 2.20 Young Jack 2.55 Laganhill 3.30 Favour And Fortune (nap) 4.04 Maple 4.39 Leader In The Park. Newbury: 1.20 Quick Wave 1.55 Epinephrine 2.30 Jasmin De Grugy 3.05 Kel Raffles 3.45 Prince Quali 4.15 Ninth Loch 4.50 There Runs Mary. Doncaster: 1.30 Doctor Kildare 2.05 World Of Fortunes 2.40 Tommy's Oscar 3.15 Twig (nb) 3.55 Patriotik 4.31 Muzaafar 5.07 Norn Iron. Newcastle: 4.10 Carrados 4.45 Sharon Curly 5.15 Mighty Nebula 5.45 Three Beauz 6.15 Pop Favorite 6.45 Tomorrow Day 7.15 Hartswood. Southwell: 4.25 Moulin Booj 5.00 Fast Fred 5.30 Sid's Annie 6.00 Man Of La Mancha 6.30 Match Anthem 7.00 Mickey Mongoose 7.30 Dash Power 8.00 Horus 8.30 Ustath. Doncaster 2.40 It has been stop-start for Tommy's Oscar since has last win in April 2024, but even under top weight he could still have enough ability to be competitive over a track and trip where he was a convincing winner off just a 3lb lower mark earlier the same season. Kelso 2.55 Half the field are unbeaten over hurdles and Laganhill, a seven-year-old who did not see a track until December 2024, could continue to make up for lost time. Doncaster 3.15 Twig, runner-up in the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham last year, reverts to chasing for the first time this season with Beau Morgan taking off a useful 5lb. Newbury 3.45 A chance for Prince Quali, who looks overpriced at around 16-1, to bounce back after an uncharacteristic fall last time out.
The Independent
18-02-2025
- Sport
- The Independent
Cheltenham Festival ante-post tips: Mares' Hurdle may suit Scott's Ace runner
Cheltenham ante-post tips Grey Dawning – Cheltenham Gold Cup – 33/1 NRNB bet365 Golden Ace – Close Brothers Mares Hurdle – 8/1 NRNB bet365 At first glance last weekend, there didn't seem many Cheltenham Festival clues with the sole Grade 1 event staged won by Pic D'orhy - and he appears Aintree bound for the Grand National meeting. His impressive 10-length Ascot Chase defeat of Gold Cup aspirant Corbetts Cross, himself left largely unchanged in the Cheltenham odds on betting sites for the Festival feature at 16/1 (top price with bet365), took his record at 21 furlongs to a staggering 1111212111. Only Shishkin and subsequent King George winner Banbridge have ever beaten Pic D'orhy at that trip and, with a record of 8-17 right-handed, it is understandable connections may be keen to roll the dice next year and try three miles in a 2025 King George VI Chase at Kempton. The disappointment of the race was undoubtedly L'Homme Presse who may either have been feeling the effects of a grueling Cotswold Chase win or simply didn't enjoy going back right-handed. There has always been a suspicion the 10-year-old is happier going the other way round, but his stable face a race against time getting him fresh and happy prior to a possible tilt at the Gold Cup on March 14 and his Gold Cup odds on horse racing betting sites drifted to 33/1 on the back of this lacklustre showing. Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup ante-post tips: Dawning switch on the cards On that front, one horse that has been forgotten for the blue riband event is Grey Dawning who was originally being aimed at Kelso before a trip to Aintree. With the Gold Cup field dominated by the hat-trick seeking champion Galopin Des Champs, there is a thought the race may cut up, especially if second favourite Fact To File is rerouted to the Ryanair Chase. In a recent interview, trainer Dan Skelton didn't rule out a late switch for Grey Dawning if Gold Cup numbers look like being on the thin side, especially with his effort in a strongly run 2024 Turners Chase confirming his liking for Cheltenham's contours. Interestingly, Skelton took the likeable grey out of the Ryanair Chase, but left him in the Gold Cup and, with many of The Independent ratified bookmakers offering a non-runner, no bet concession on the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, the 33/1 top price with bet365 could be worth taking. If Skelton does decide to stick with Plan A then your stake will be returned, but if connections U-turn and take the Cheltenham route, Grey Dawning could easily be lining up in a seven or eight runner Gold Cup with a terrific chance of finishing in the first three and landing the place part of the bet at very least. Mares' Hurdle ante-post tip: Golden Ace catches the eye Away from Ascot, I was fortunate to be at Wincanton to watch the Kingwell Hurdle first hand, a race won in brave fashion by the Jeremy Scott-trained Golden Ace who gamely saw off Burdett Road on ground which was testing. There is little doubt the early gallop was frenetic – the first mile was completed in a significantly quicker time than any of the other three hurdle events – and Golden Ace's stamina came to the fore in the straight as she bravely found plenty off the bridle to form the middle leg of a welcome treble for her trainer. A best-priced 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle on betting apps, the daughter of Golden Horn recorded a career best on the numbers at Wincanton and connections now have a question to answer; be a bit-part player in a Champion Hurdle or a major contender in the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle, for which she is 8/1 non-runner, no bet with bet365. That could be a price worth taking too with the two mares that dominate the market, Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth, also holding entries in the Champion Hurdle and noises from both camps suggesting that might be their destination. Scott's horses have been out of form for much of the season, but recent results suggest they are a yard to keep onside now as we head into the spring. Although Golden Ace's trainer has bemoaned the fact she hasn't been seeing out the 2m4f trip that well this season, the prospect of spring ground and a healthier horse look good reasons for supporting here in this Grade 1 event on day one, especially if stakes are returned should connections choose the Champion Hurdle route. Please gamble responsibly Bettors should always follow responsible gambling practices. Even the most knowledgeable punter can lose a bet, so always stick to a budget and never chase your losses. 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