09-07-2025
Godolphin's late say with Notable Speech
The late emergence of a new favourite only five days shy of the running of the £600,000 (S$1.04 million) Group 1 July Cup Stakes (1,200m) on July 12 is not all that uncommon.
But when that top pick is only an eleventh hour addition, even coming across in some quarters as an afterthought, it is seen as a rarer betting drift phenomenon.
The less surprising element is the identity of the payer of the £36,000 supplementary fee.
Only the giants of the racing game like Godolphin, Coolmore or Shadwell have enough depth under their barn roofs to pull off such a stunt, and in this case it is Godolphin, who supplemented not one but two Blue Army horses for the Newmarket sprint classic.
Charlie Appleby's Notable Speech is the new first-elect at 7-2, and was joined by John & Thady Gosden's Spy Chief, a 20-1 outsider.
However, the real story is not so much the cat among the pigeons, but the stark message it has left about this year's renewal of the July Cup not being a vintage crop.
Notable Speech may be a decorated dual-Group 1 winner of the 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes last season, but none of his 10 starts has been over less than the winning distance of 1,600m.
For a noted miler and six-furlong absolute beginner to unseat first favourite Flora Of Bermuda, a two-time winner (1,000m and 1,200m) and recent third to Lazzat in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (1,200m) at Royal Ascot for Wathnan Racing, it does speak volumes about the quality of the original July Cup 14-horse field.
If that was not enough of a head-scratcher, Godolphin's only one runner before his two comrades joined the fray, Symbol Of Honour (now 6-1), was the second favourite - hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances by his own squad.
History is also against Notable Speech.
Tetratema was the last horse in 104 years to boast both the 2000 Guineas (1920) and July Cup (1921) on his honour roll.
The intrigue about Notable Speech's short odds deepens further when his recent form is factored in.
After a creditable third as the beaten favourite in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile (1,600m) at Del Mar in November, he was spelled, but his two runs since have been lacklustre - fourth in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, both Group 1 mile events.
Bloodlines are also a mismatch. Notable Speech is by Dubawi, a remarkable stallion, but more in the speed department.
Pedigree statistics reveal that his progeny have only a 15 per cent strike rate in 1,200m or less events, but around 20 per cent for any distance upwards of 1,400m up to 2,600m.
Clearly, the Godolphin think tank is not just rolling the dice for fun. It is not unprecedented to see a miler dropping back to sprints and win, even at the highest level.
Probably, the biggest incentive to plot a path less travelled for Notable Speech is the apparent lack of depth to this year's July Cup, even if some of them are no pushover.
For a start, Flora Of Bermuda was not on top of the market (now 5-1) by sheer fluke. The daughter of Dark Angel has fared well in Group 1s at Deauville, Haydock and Ascot, with her latest third to Lazzat and Satono Reve in the QEII Jubilee a real screamer.
On the other hand, last year's July Cup beaten favourite (fifth to Mill Stream) Inisherin (7-1) ran a disappointing seventh in that QEII Jubilee, but the Kevin Ryan-trained Shamardal colt scored a first-up win in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes (1,200m) after a wind op.
It would also be to every punter's peril to overlook an Aidan O'Brien runner, even if Whistlejacket is not exactly one of Ballydoyle's heavyweights. At 6-1, the No Nay Never colt, who won the Group 2 July Stakes (1,200m) at this meeting 12 months ago is value for money.
Regardless, whether there is method in the madness of Godolphin's gamble, the answer will only be known on Saturday a minute or so after 11.35pm Singapore time.
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