Latest news with #Grynspan
CNBC
16-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Expect tariff 'cascade' effect across slowing global economy, top UN official warns
The leading arm of the United Nations focused on trade and development, UNCTAD, says President Trump's tariff policies are already creating new costs and disruptions in the global supply chain, and for less developed nations that trade with the U.S., the worst economic fallout hasn't hit yet. "We already see a disruption in the global supply chain," said Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary General of UNCTAD. "Many of the CEOs sit and wait, because if there is no predictability, and what you need for trade and investment is predictability and trust," she added. Earlier this year, UNCTAD released data showing global investment back at financial crisis era levels. The UN arm is also forecasting one-half a percentage point to be shaved off of global growth this year. "We are worried the high level of uncertainty is paralyzing business decisions, which is impacting trade, resulting in trade being revised downward," Grynspan said of the lowered global GDP forecast of 2.3%, down from 2.8%. "This is a lot," she said. "This is already much lower than the growth we experienced in the last decade," she added. U.S. consumer inflation increased in June, a spike attributed to higher prices on consumer goods imported from foreign countries, though the Trump administration says tariffs do not cause inflation. Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, three Asian countries that benefited from the "China Plus One" supply chain strategy that saw more manufacturing move to these countries, are seeing an impact as supply chains shift again, Grynspan said. Trump has threatened to add a 40% tariff onto any good that uses what is known as transshipment, with a product's journey starting in China but then moving to nations such as Vietnam to avoid Chinese tariffs. The layering of tariffs will cause the most economic pain for the least developed nations globally, according to the UN official, with a combination of existing tariffs and Trump tariff threats resulting in a stacking up of trade taxes that could lead to a reduction in exports of over 50%. "This is a cascade," she said. "It will affect jobs, and it will affect the stability in many countries, where even growth will be lower than the average in the world," Grynspan said. "If you take the least developed countries of the world, 46 countries that are the most vulnerable, we project that their exports could be impacted, as much as 54% down, if the tariffs are put on them," she added. Cambodia's exports to the U.S. represent more than 10% of its GDP, according to the Center for Global Development. Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could erase over $4.5 billion in Cambodian exports over the next four years, with garments and travel goods suffering the largest blows, according to research firm Datawheel, with increasing risk to Cambodia's economic and social stability. Grynspan said while it is a good sign that the Trump administration wants to negotiate trade agreements, these deals are complex and take time to complete, and the current uncertainty is impacting economic growth and investment. At the same time, another inflationary challenge for the global supply chain has picked up again, with increasing aggression of Houthis towards freight vessels in the Red Sea. Two vessels were attacked in recent weeks, resulting in the sinking of one containership. "These choke points are very important (to trade)," Grynspan said. "When they are disrupted, the whole system suffers." She said the latest attack in the Red Sea raised the war premium in marine insurance by 1% above the value of the ship, or as much as $1 million. Added fuel costs as a result of ocean carriers traversing longer routes to avoid the Red Sea adds to inflationary pressures. She said the Red Sea situation alone could add 0.6% to global prices.
Indian Express
10-07-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4): A must-know for UPSC exam
Take a look at the essential concepts, terms, quotes, or phenomena every day and brush up your knowledge. Here's your knowledge nugget on major outcomes of FfD4. (Relevance: Important conferences and summits are important from both the Prelims and Mains perspective of the UPSC exam.) Recently, the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) was held from 30 June – 3 July in Seville, Spain. A Sevilla Commitment was adopted ahead of the start of the Conference, which laid down a path to close the $4 trillion annual SDG financing gap in developing countries. However, the USA, one of the largest economies, skipped the Conference. This Conference was supported by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), through its Financing for Sustainable Development Office, and the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). 1. Financing for development (FfD) is an ongoing process to align financial flows and policies with economic, social, and environmental priorities. In 1997, the Agenda for Development was adopted by the UN General Assembly (UNGA), which called for consideration of holding an international conference on FfD. 2. According to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin, a division of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), 'the first International Conference on Financing for Development took place in 2002 in Monterrey, Mexico. The resulting Monterrey Consensus 'resolved to address the challenges of financing for development' and 'to eradicate poverty, achieve sustained economic growth and promote sustainable development.' 3. In 2008, a follow-up conference was held in Doha, Qatar. Building on this, the third Conference on Financing for Development adopted the Addis Ababa Action Agenda in 2015. It included a policy framework to realign financial flows to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ten years after Addis Ababa, the FfD conference was held in Spain. Financing is the engine of development. And right now, this engine is sputtering. – United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres statement at opening of 4th FfD4 4. Many countries face escalating debt burdens, declining investments, decreasing international aid, and increasing trade barriers. The Conference is seen as an opportunity to close the staggering $4 trillion annual financing gap, promoting development, bringing millions of people out of poverty, and helping achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, which are currently lagging. 5. Last year, 3.3 billion people were living in countries that pay more interest on their debts than they spend on health or education, and the number will increase to 3.4 billion people this year, according to Grynspan. And developing countries will pay $947 billion to service debts this year, up from $847 billion last year. 1. Building on the 2015 Addis Ababa Action Agenda, the Sevilla Commitment reaffirms adherence to realizing sustainable development, including effectively implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals and upholding all principles enshrined in it. 2. With the approaching deadline of SDGs, the Sevilla Commitment charts a path on three fronts: catalyzing investment at scale for sustainable development, addressing the debt and development crisis, and reforming the international financial architecture. 3. Under the Sevilla Platform for Action, 'new financing mechanisms were announced to tackle unsustainable debt burdens, and additional initiatives aimed to enhance crisis response and climate resilience, expand access to social protection and support local and digital economies, among others,' according to the UN press release. 4. A Debt Swaps for Development Hub initiative led by Spain and the World Bank was launched. It aims to strengthen capacity and enhance collaboration to scale up debt swaps and lower debt service burdens. 5. Along with this, a Debt-for-Development Swap Programme by Italy that will convert 230 million Euros of debt obligations of African countries into investments in development projects and a Sevilla Forum on Debt to help countries learn from one another and coordinate their approaches in debt management and restructuring were announced. 6. Led by Brazil and Spain, an Effective Taxation of High-Net-Worth Individuals initiative was launched to ensure high-net-worth individuals pay their fair share. India had made an uncharacteristically strong criticism of the Baku agreement, calling the final agreed amount 'abysmally poor' and 'paltry'. It has been said that the lack of adequate finance was not just an abdication of responsibility by the developed countries, but also a major setback to global climate action. 1. A few days before the start of the FfD4, the World Bank published a Report titled 'Foreign Direct Investment in Retreat', pointing out that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into developing countries had fallen to $435 billion in 2023, the lowest in nearly 20 years. It warns that rising trade and investment barriers pose a 'significant threat to global efforts to mobilise financing for development. 2. According to M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group's Deputy Chief Economist, the sharp drop in FDI for developing countries 'should sound alarm bells'. Reversing the trend, Kose said, was not just an 'economic imperative' but also 'essential for job creation, sustained growth, and achieving broader development goals'. 3. According to the Report, the prolonged and widespread investment weakness in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has contributed to a large backlog of unmet infrastructure needs. 4. Weak investment growth is undermining efforts to achieve key development goals, including tackling climate change and accelerating the energy transition, and reducing poverty and inequality. By some estimates, EMDEs need to invest at least an additional 1.4 percent of GDP through 2030 just to address climate change and the energy transition. 5. Among EMDEs, China has been the biggest receiver of FDI from 2012 to 2023, accounting for nearly one-third of these inflows. Brazil was second at 10 per cent and India third at 6 per cent, the World Bank said. 6. While data for the 2023 calendar year is the latest available at a global level, FDI into India as per Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data increased to $81.04 billion in 2024-25 from $71.28 billion in 2023-24. However, net FDI into India – which adjusts the gross FDI number by deducting the funds repatriated by foreign investors and the investments made by Indian entities abroad – fell to just $353 million in the last fiscal from $10.13 billion in 2023-24. Consider the following statements about the International Conference on Financing for Development: 1. The first International Conference on Financing for Development took place in Doha, Qatar. 2. The Sevilla Commitment was signed by the USA, UK, France, Germany, and Italy. 3. The Effective Taxation of High-Net-Worth Individuals initiative was launched by Brazil and Spain. Which of the following statements is/are incorrect? (a) 2 only (b) 1 and 2 only (c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1, 2, and 3 (Source: US skips global UN meeting aimed at raising trillions of dollars to combat poverty, 'Alarm bells' for developing nations as 2023 FDI lowest since 2005 – World Bank) Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. 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Scoop
30-06-2025
- Business
- Scoop
New UN Report Charts Path Out Of Debt Crisis Threatening Global Development
On Friday, Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed launched a new report, Confronting the Debt Crisis: 11 Actions to Unlock Sustainable Financing. She was joined by experts Mahmoud Mohieldin and Paolo Gentiloni, along with Rebeca Grynspan, Head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). A growing crisis 'Borrowing is critical for development,' Ms. Mohammed said, but today, 'borrowing is not working for many developing countries, over two-thirds of our low income countries are either in debt distress or at a high risk of it.' The crisis is accelerating, Ms. Grynspan warned. More than 3.4 billion people now live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education – 100 million more than last year. Debt service payments by developing countries have soared by $74 billion in a single year, from $847 billion to $921 billion. 'The nature of this crisis is mostly connected to the increase of debt servicing costs,' Mr. Gentiloni explained. 'Practically, the debt services costs doubled in the last ten years.' Prepared by the UN Secretary-General's Expert Group on Debt, the report reinforces the commitments put forward in the Compromiso de Sevilla, the outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development – taking place next week. A path forward The report outlines 11 actions that are both technically feasible and politically viable. Mr. Mohieldin explained that the recommendations fall under two key goals: providing meaningful debt relief and preventing future crises. It identifies three levels of action: At the multilateral level: repurpose and replenish funds to inject liquidity into the system, with targeted support for low-income countries. At the international level: establish a platform for borrowers and creditors to engage directly. At the national level: strengthen institutional capacity, improve policy coordination, manage interest rates, and bolster risk management. 'These are eleven proposals that are doable and that only need the political will of all the actors to be able to make them real,' Ms. Grynspan stressed.
Business Recorder
28-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Developing states' debt service tops $921bn: UN
UNITED NATIONS: Debt service payments by developing countries soared by $74 billion in 2024, ie, from $847 billion to $921, according to a new UN report, which points out that two-thirds of the low income nations are either in debt distress or at a high risk of it. The report, 'Confronting the Debt Crisis: 11 Actions to Unlock Sustainable Financing,' was launched on Friday by UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed. Mohammed was joined by experts Mahmoud Mohieldin and Paolo Gentiloni, along with Rebeca Grynspan, Head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Debt and climate — I 'Borrowing is critical for development,' Ms Mohammed said, but today, 'borrowing is not working for many developing countries, over two-thirds of our low income countries are either in debt distress or at a high risk of it.' The report showed a 'silent crisis' of surging debt service payments in low-income countries and charted the path out of the debt crisis threatening global development. Ms Mohammed regretted that a decade after the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), development was facing serious headwinds. On her part, Grynspan warned that the crisis was accelerating. The report showed more than 3.4 billion people now live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education, 100 million more than previous year. 'The nature of this crisis is mostly connected to the increase of debt servicing costs,' Gentiloni explained. 'Practically, the debt services costs doubled in the last 10 years.' Prepared by the UN Secretary-General's Expert Group on Debt, the report reinforced the commitments put forward in the 'Compromiso de Sevilla', which is the outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development – taking place in Sevilla, Spain, next week. The report outlines 11 actions that are both technically feasible and politically viable. Mohieldin explained that the recommendations fall under two key goals: providing meaningful debt relief and preventing future crises. It identified three levels of action including repurpose and replenish funds to inject liquidity into the system, with targeted support for low-income countries at the multilateral level. The other is establishing a platform for borrowers and creditors to engage directly at the international level: At the national level, the report recommended strengthening institutional capacity, improving policy coordination, managing interest rates and bolstering risk management. 'These are 11 proposals that are doable and that only need the political will of all the actors to be able to make them real,' Grynspan stressed.
Scoop
19-06-2025
- Business
- Scoop
World News In Brief: Global Investment Plunges, Hurricane Season In Haiti, Rising Cholera And Hunger In South Sudan
19 June 2025 Their latest data shows that the outlook for international investment this year 'is negative', a sharp course correction from January, when 'modest' growth seemed possible. The reasons for this range from trade tensions and tariffs whose main effect has been a 'dramatic increase in investor uncertainty', said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. She said that investment in renewable energy, water and sanitation fell by some 30 per cent and that agriculture saw a 19 per cent drop in investor confidence. Only the health sector saw an increase of nearly 20 per cent, Ms. Grynspan said, although that only accounts for 'less than $15 billion globally'. 'Very real consequences' 'Behind those numbers are very real consequences. Jobs not created,' she said. 'Infrastructure not built, sustainable development delayed. What we see here is not just a downturn. It is a pattern.' Ms. Grynspan also cited 'growing geopolitical tensions' in addition to rising trade barriers around the world as reasons for the fall in global investment for development. In critical sectors as hi-tech industries and rare earth minerals, governments are also tightening screening measures on proposed foreign investment, the UN agency noted. Supplies to limit hurricane impact in Haiti critically low The Humanitarian Country Team in Haiti warned Wednesday that funding and pre-positioned contingency supplies are critically low ahead of what is forecast to be an above-average hurricane season. Haiti is highly vulnerable to extreme weather, with 96 per cent of the population at risk. Forecasts project 12 to 19 tropical storms and up to five major hurricanes this year. The alert comes as the fragile island nation grapples with a worsening humanitarian crisis. Armed gangs control much of the country, the collapse of essential services and growing displacement have left 5.7 million people food insecure, 1.3 million displaced and 230,000 living in makeshift shelters ill-equipped to withstand severe weather. Limited preparations Humanitarian actors have pre-positioned limited stocks of essential items, but they are at a record low for a hurricane season posing such high risk. For the first time, Haiti will begin the hurricane season without pre-positioned food supplies or the financial resources necessary to initiate a rapid response. Meanwhile, UN Humanitarian Office (OCHA) is coordinating missions with UN agencies and partners to assess how to safely resume aid operations in high-need areas, following their suspension on 26 May due to insecurity. 'I am deeply concerned for communities, families, and vulnerable groups who have already been affected by violence and are living in precarious conditions,' said Ulrika Richardson, Humanitarian Coordinator in Haiti, calling for immediate support. As of mid-June, the $908 million Humanitarian Response Plan for Haiti is just 8 per cent funded. Worsening cholera and hunger in South Sudan OCHA raised the alarm on Thursday over rising malnutrition and cholera cases in war-torn South Sudan. An estimated 2.3 million children under five urgently need treatment for acute malnutrition, a 10 per cent increase since last July. This crisis is unfolding amid the world's most severe cholera outbreak this year, with almost 74,000 cases and at least 1,362 deaths reported as of 16 June. The start of the rainy season and waning immunity risk a significant surge in infections. UN response The 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for South Sudan is only 20 per cent funded. Despite limited resources and many challenges, the UN and partners have scaled up efforts, delivering vaccines and life-saving aid to contain the disease and protect the most vulnerable. 'This dire situation is a stark reminder that we need funding urgently to expand food assistance, to expand nutrition and expand health services to those who need it the most,' said UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric at the daily briefing in New York.
