Latest news with #Guichard
UPI
6 days ago
- Business
- UPI
May American consumer confidence rebounds after five months of decline
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in February. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo May 27 (UPI) -- The nonprofit research organization The Conference Board announced Tuesday that the confidence of American consumers in regard to current business and labor market conditions is on the rise, but notes a recession could be on the horizon. According to a press release, the Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased in May by 12.3 points to 98, up from 85.7 in April. Its Present Situation Index, which is based on the assessment of American consumers on current business and labor market conditions, also went up 4.8 points to 135.9. The Board's Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook of American consumers in relation to business, income and labor market conditions also rose 17.4 points to 72.8. Global Indicators at The Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said that consumer confidence "improved in May after five consecutive months of decline." However, as per The Conference Board, when the Expectations Index stays below 80, it often signals an imminent recession. Even so, the data indicates that consumers were more confident about potential job availability and business conditions over the next six months and had increased optimism about future income prospects. Guichard also said that consumers' outlook on stock prices improved as the market showed a positive direction in May "with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months," an increase from 37.6% in April, "and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline," which is down from 47.2% in April. "This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal," she added. The reported cutoff date for the data taken in for these scales was May 19, but around half were received after the May 12 announcement by the Trump administration that it had paused tariffs on Chinese imports. "The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards," Guichard also explained, but while Expectations Index had risen from April, "their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month."
Epoch Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Epoch Times
Tariff Pause Fuels Consumer Optimism as US Confidence Rebounds in May
Consumer confidence received a boost this month as Americans turned more optimistic following the U.S.-China tariff pause. The Conference Board's May This month's index came in better than economists had expected. Other broader sentiment indicators improved. The present situation index climbed by 4.8 points, to 135.9, and the expectations index rocketed by 17.4 points, to 72.8, approaching levels before President Donald Trump's April 2 global tariff announcement. While the bounce back had been ubiquitous earlier in the month, consumer confidence surged following the May 12 U.S.-China trade truce, says Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board. More than half of the responses came in after the announcement. Related Stories 5/22/2025 5/21/2025 U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs by 115 percent between the two economies for 90 days as negotiators discuss economic and trade policy. The better-than-expected increase was observed across all age groups, income categories, and political affiliations. 'The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows,' Guichard said in the report. Consumers' six-month outlook over business conditions, employment availability, and income prospects was rosier, Guichard noted. Write-in responses indicated that tariffs remain top of consumers' minds. Some respondents emphasized concerns that tariffs would raise prices and harm the broader economy, while others alluded to easing inflation and lower gasoline prices. The White House was pleased by the numbers. 'Despite doomsday prophesizing by the 'experts,' President Trump's America First economic agenda of tariffs, tax cuts, rapid deregulation, and domestic energy production continues to pay off,' said White House spokesperson Kush Desai in a statement. 'Today's consumer confidence report reflects multiple solid inflation and jobs reports that Americans have seen under President Trump, as well as a GDP report that showed a whopping 22 percent spike in gross domestic investment in first quarter 2025.' Advancements on the Trade Front Since trade-policy uncertainty has been the primary driver of deteriorating consumer sentiment and anxious business owners, eliminating uncertainty 'could be the most powerful catalyst for an improved growth trajectory,' says Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist for LPL Financial. 'Trade uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on consumers and businesses. Economic growth expectations would likely improve if the administration removed tariff anxiety,' Roach said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. 'For now, trade policy is the main contributor to volatility in capital markets and it appears these conditions will continue in the near term.' Over the Memorial Day long weekend, President Donald Trump announced he was delaying the 50 percent tariff on the European Union to July 9. President Donald Trump arrives on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 20, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times The president, writing in a May 27 Truth Social 'This is a positive event, and I hope that they will, finally, like my same demand to China, open up the European nations for trade with the United States of America,' Trump said. 'They will both be very happy, and successful, if they do!' During an 'I expect we'll probably see a few more deals even this week. There's some stuff very close to the finish. It's up to the president, of course,' Hassett stated. The tariff postponement, Hassett's remarks, and a surge in consumer confidence sent U.S. stocks higher to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week. The blue-chip 'The economic outlook is looking steadier with tariff increases largely paused, although growth seems to be holding in a lower gear,' said Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank, in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. 'Consumers are feeling less jittery after the tariff pause announcements.' Digesting Economic Data Over the past few months, economic indicators have sent mixed signals amid the tariff turbulence. New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods registered the largest decline since October. According to the The April reading came in slightly better than projected. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's Texas Manufacturing Index—a monthly industry survey of the sector's prevailing economic conditions—improved by It is crucial to monitor the economy's underlying health, says Chris Zaccarelli, the CIO of Northlight Asset Management. 'For now, we see an economy that is slowing and taking some time to adapt to the 'new normal' of rapid changes in trade policy, but as long as it stays out of recession, we believe the market has more room to go to the upside in the short run,' Zaccarelli said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. The next major data release will be the second estimate for first-quarter GDP on May 29. The initial estimate showed a 0.3 percent decline, the first contraction since early 2022. For now, economic observers expect no sizable changes. 'While a positive revision to the advance GDP estimate would likely benefit near-term sentiment and a deeper contraction would harm it, the result is not likely to change the economic story,' said ITR Economics economist Lauren Saidel-Baker in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.
Miami Herald
7 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
May American consumer confidence rebounds after five monts of decline
May 27 (UPI) -- The nonprofit research organization The Conference Board announced Tuesday that the confidence of American consumers in regard to current business and labor market conditions is on the rise but notes a recession could be on the horizon. According to a press release, the Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased in May by 12.3 points to 98, up from 85.7 in April. Its Present Situation Index, which is based on the assessment of American consumers on current business and labor market conditions, also went up 4.8 points to 135.9. The Board's Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook of American consumers in relation to business, income and labor market conditions also rose 17.4 points to 72.8. Global Indicators at The Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said that consumer confidence "improved in May after five consecutive months of decline." However, as per The Conference Board, when the Expectations Index stays below 80, it often signals an imminent recession. Even so, the data indicates that consumers were more confident about potential job availability and business conditions over the next six months and had increased optimism about future income prospects. Guichard also said that consumers' outlook on stock prices improved as the market showed a positive direction in May "with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months," an increase from 37.6% in April, "and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline," which is down from 47.2% in April. "This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal," she added. The reported cutoff date for the data taken in for these scales was May 19, but around half were received after the May 12 announcement by the Trump administration that it had paused tariffs on Chinese imports. "The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards," Guichard also explained, but while Expectations Index had risen from April, "their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month." Copyright 2025 UPI News Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
UPI
7 days ago
- Business
- UPI
May American consumer confidence rebounds after five monts of decline
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in February. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo May 27 (UPI) -- The nonprofit research organization The Conference Board announced Tuesday that the confidence of American consumers in regard to current business and labor market conditions is on the rise but notes a recession could be on the horizon. According to a press release, the Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased in May by 12.3 points to 98, up from 85.7 in April. Its Present Situation Index, which is based on the assessment of American consumers on current business and labor market conditions, also went up 4.8 points to 135.9. The Board's Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook of American consumers in relation to business, income and labor market conditions also rose 17.4 points to 72.8. Global Indicators at The Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said that consumer confidence "improved in May after five consecutive months of decline." However, as per The Conference Board, when the Expectations Index stays below 80, it often signals an imminent recession. Even so, the data indicates that consumers were more confident about potential job availability and business conditions over the next six months and had increased optimism about future income prospects. Guichard also said that consumers' outlook on stock prices improved as the market showed a positive direction in May "with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months," an increase from 37.6% in April, "and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline," which is down from 47.2% in April. "This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal," she added. The reported cutoff date for the data taken in for these scales was May 19, but around half were received after the May 12 announcement by the Trump administration that it had paused tariffs on Chinese imports. "The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards," Guichard also explained, but while Expectations Index had risen from April, "their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month."
Fibre2Fashion
26-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Euro area LEI declines in April, CEI steady; GDP to rise at 0.9%: TCB
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the euro area declined by 1.0 per cent in April 2025 to 99.9 (2016=100), marking its second consecutive monthly drop following a 0.4 per cent fall in March. The euro area's Leading Economic Index fell 1.0 per cent in April 2025, driven by weakened consumer confidence and sector expectations post-US tariff announcement. The six-month LEI decline slowed to 2.9 per cent. The Coincident Index was unchanged in April, with 0.8 per cent growth over six months. The Conference Board forecasts 0.9 per cent euro area GDP growth for 2025. Over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI contracted by 2.9 per cent—an improvement compared to the steeper 3.7 per cent decline during the prior six-month span, the TCB said in a release. 'The euro area LEI fell at a steeper rate last month, in the wake of the US tariff announcement on April 2nd. All non-financial components weighed on the Index. In particular, consumer confidence declined while expectations in the service and manufacturing sector weakened,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the region remained unchanged in April at 110.0, after registering a 0.3 per cent increase in March. The CEI posted a 0.8 per cent rise over the latest six-month period, accelerating from 0.3 per cent growth recorded between April and October 2024. 'Taking into account the impact of US tariffs, the high level of uncertainty and the persistence of geopolitical tensions, The Conference Board projects euro area's real GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025,' Guichard added. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
