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Economic Times
28-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Defence sector based mutual funds rally up to 60% in 3 months. Will the momentum continue?
Defence sector based mutual funds have rallied upto 60% in the last three months. There are around six funds in the category including active and passive and gave an average return of 57.70% in the same period. Three schemes in the category gave over 60% return. Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence ETF offered the highest return of around 60.49% in the last three months, followed by Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund which gave 60.23% return in the same period. Also Read | Defence ETFs gain 17% in one week. Should you add to your portfolio? Groww Nifty India Defence ETF and Aditya Birla SL Nifty India Defence Index Fund gave 60.12% and 59.96% returns respectively in the similar time period. Groww Nifty India Defence ETF FOF gave 59.45% return in the mentioned time period. HDFC Defence Fund, the only active fund based on the defence sector, delivered 45.93% return in the mentioned period. Experts attribute this surge to a combination of strong earnings delivery by the sector constituents, policy momentum with increased capital allocation by the Indian government and trigger coming from actual use case of India's Defence Capability in recent India-Pakistan faceoff at borders.'Key holdings in defence index funds reported strong earnings growth. The Indian defence budget allocation for FY25 has maintained a sharp focus on indigenization. Capital outlay of Rs 1.72 lakh crore continues to support new orders. Defence exports reached an all-time high of Rs 21,083 crore in FY24 (up 12% YoY), reflecting rising global demand for Indian defense manufacturing. This surge in earnings, coupled with a policy push and a favorable geopolitical backdrop, led to substantial price rerating and fund outperformance,' said Atul Shinghal, Founder and CEO, Scripbox. In addition to these factors, another expert adds that Defence funds have benefited from the recent surge in prices of defence stocks. Defence stocks have been on the rise in recent months after they were hit badly during the sell-off earlier this year. 'Many countries around the world, including India are ramping up their military capabilities, leading to increased defence spending. In India, this trend was further strengthened post the Operation Sindoor, as the Indian government plans to further improve our defence capabilities,' said Nilesh D Naik, Head of Business – Investments, the last six months, defence based passive funds returned 34% with Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence ETF being the topper as the fund delivered 34.22% return in the last six months, followed by Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund which gained 33.73% in the same Nifty India Defence ETF FOF gave 33.35% in the last six months. HDFC Defence Fund, the only active fund based on this sector, gave 15.86% return in the same period. Also Read | HDFC Defence Fund increases stake in HAL, Solar Industries, and 4 other stocks in April Despite seeing the historical stellar performance by these funds, experts don't recommend investing in these sectoral funds. Shinghal of Scripbox mentions that despite strong sector fundamentals, current valuations are stretched as the trailing P/E ratio of the Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defense Index stands at a steep 61.35x, while the P/B ratio is 13.22x—significantly higher than broader market averages. which in turn indicates that the future growth might be already priced further adds that the Sharpe Ratio is negative (-0.07), indicating poor risk-adjusted return over recent volatility, despite high absolute returns and the index has 77.5% exposure to mid and small caps, which increases vulnerability to sharp corrections during risk-off sentiment willing to allocate or have existing investments in these funds can follow the strategy Shinghal shared. He mentioned that existing investors should hold and consider profit booking in a staggered manner, new investors should avoid fresh lump-sum allocations and tactical SIPs may be considered only on 10–15% corrections, and lastly the total allocation to defence sector should be between 2-4% and should not exceed 4% of total equity the other hand, Naik advices that thematic funds such as this are typically meant for seasoned investors who have their core portfolio in place and who want to take a tactical bet based on their views on a specific sector or theme. 'With recent rally in defence stocks, many of them have now recovered significantly and are trading at close to their all time highs. While the long term defence sector story seems strong, investors should be extremely cautious while investing in such funds post this rally, given the current valuations,' he earlier analysed that in a week's time, defence sector based ETFs have gained upto 17% in one week's time. The focus on defence stocks came after reports that the Modi government has called a meeting with defence makers post the recent India-Pakistan faceoff at the stellar performance of defence funds, Shinghal comments on the outlook for the sector and mentions that while India's long-term defense growth story is intact, current valuations do not offer a favorable risk-reward for fresh allocations and investors are advised to retain moderate exposure (up to 4%), book profits where returns have exceeded expectations, and re-enter during valuation corrections or policy-driven should always choose a scheme based on risk appetite, investment horizon, and goals. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.
Time of India
28-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Defence sector based mutual funds rally up to 60% in 3 months. Will the momentum continue?
Defence sector based mutual funds have rallied upto 60% in the last three months. There are around six funds in the category including active and passive and gave an average return of 57.70% in the same period. Three schemes in the category gave over 60% return. Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence ETF offered the highest return of around 60.49% in the last three months, followed by Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund which gave 60.23% return in the same period. Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Hoa Binh: Unsold Furniture Liquidation 2024 (Prices May Surprise You) Unsold Furniture | Search Ads Learn More Undo Also Read | Defence ETFs gain 17% in one week. Should you add to your portfolio? Groww Nifty India Defence ETF and Aditya Birla SL Nifty India Defence Index Fund gave 60.12% and 59.96% returns respectively in the similar time period. Groww Nifty India Defence ETF FOF gave 59.45% return in the mentioned time period. Live Events HDFC Defence Fund , the only active fund based on the defence sector, delivered 45.93% return in the mentioned period. Experts attribute this surge to a combination of strong earnings delivery by the sector constituents, policy momentum with increased capital allocation by the Indian government and trigger coming from actual use case of India's Defence Capability in recent India-Pakistan faceoff at borders. 'Key holdings in defence index funds reported strong earnings growth. The Indian defence budget allocation for FY25 has maintained a sharp focus on indigenization. Capital outlay of Rs 1.72 lakh crore continues to support new orders. Defence exports reached an all-time high of Rs 21,083 crore in FY24 (up 12% YoY), reflecting rising global demand for Indian defense manufacturing. This surge in earnings, coupled with a policy push and a favorable geopolitical backdrop, led to substantial price rerating and fund outperformance,' said Atul Shinghal, Founder and CEO, Scripbox. In addition to these factors, another expert adds that Defence funds have benefited from the recent surge in prices of defence stocks. Defence stocks have been on the rise in recent months after they were hit badly during the sell-off earlier this year. 'Many countries around the world, including India are ramping up their military capabilities, leading to increased defence spending. In India, this trend was further strengthened post the Operation Sindoor, as the Indian government plans to further improve our defence capabilities,' said Nilesh D Naik, Head of Business – Investments, In the last six months, defence based passive funds returned 34% with Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence ETF being the topper as the fund delivered 34.22% return in the last six months, followed by Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund which gained 33.73% in the same period. Groww Nifty India Defence ETF FOF gave 33.35% in the last six months. HDFC Defence Fund, the only active fund based on this sector, gave 15.86% return in the same period. Also Read | HDFC Defence Fund increases stake in HAL, Solar Industries, and 4 other stocks in April Despite seeing the historical stellar performance by these funds, experts don't recommend investing in these sectoral funds. Shinghal of Scripbox mentions that despite strong sector fundamentals, current valuations are stretched as the trailing P/E ratio of the Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defense Index stands at a steep 61.35x, while the P/B ratio is 13.22x—significantly higher than broader market averages. which in turn indicates that the future growth might be already priced in. He further adds that the Sharpe Ratio is negative (-0.07), indicating poor risk-adjusted return over recent volatility, despite high absolute returns and the index has 77.5% exposure to mid and small caps, which increases vulnerability to sharp corrections during risk-off sentiment phases. Those willing to allocate or have existing investments in these funds can follow the strategy Shinghal shared. He mentioned that existing investors should hold and consider profit booking in a staggered manner, new investors should avoid fresh lump-sum allocations and tactical SIPs may be considered only on 10–15% corrections, and lastly the total allocation to defence sector should be between 2-4% and should not exceed 4% of total equity exposure. On the other hand, Naik advices that thematic funds such as this are typically meant for seasoned investors who have their core portfolio in place and who want to take a tactical bet based on their views on a specific sector or theme. 'With recent rally in defence stocks, many of them have now recovered significantly and are trading at close to their all time highs. While the long term defence sector story seems strong, investors should be extremely cautious while investing in such funds post this rally, given the current valuations,' he added. ETMutualFunds earlier analysed that in a week's time, defence sector based ETFs have gained upto 17% in one week's time. The focus on defence stocks came after reports that the Modi government has called a meeting with defence makers post the recent India-Pakistan faceoff at borders. Post the stellar performance of defence funds, Shinghal comments on the outlook for the sector and mentions that while India's long-term defense growth story is intact, current valuations do not offer a favorable risk-reward for fresh allocations and investors are advised to retain moderate exposure (up to 4%), book profits where returns have exceeded expectations, and re-enter during valuation corrections or policy-driven consolidations. One should always choose a scheme based on risk appetite, investment horizon, and goals. If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.
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Business Standard
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Defence funds: Enter via SIP with 10-year view to manage valuation risk
The Nifty India Defence Total Return Index (TRI) has risen 27.4 per cent over the past three months, outperforming the Nifty 50 TRI, which gained 8.2 per cent. Defence-focused mutual funds have mirrored this rally. The category includes one active fund, HDFC Defence Fund, with assets under management (AUM) of ₹5,487.27 crore, and passive schemes from three fund houses — Motilal Oswal, Aditya Birla Sun Life, and Groww. These schemes manage ₹9,133.82 crore collectively. These funds invest in defence equipment and other stocks related to the defence sector. 'A look at the Nifty India Defence Index's constituents reveals that it is a highly concentrated, top-heavy index. There is also a paucity of listed names in this space,' says Kaustubh Belapurkar, director–manager research, Morningstar Investment Research India. Sound prospects Jefferies estimates India's defence sector opportunity at $100–120 billion over the next five-six years, with growth projected at 13 per cent compounded annually from financial year (FY) 2022-23 to FY2030. In FY24, domestic defence production reached a record ₹1.3 trillion. 'With the trend of protectionism in defence spreading globally, the Indian government has launched the Make in India initiative in the defence sector, which is a key driver for its growth,' says Vishal Dhawan, chief financial planner, Plan Ahead Wealth Advisors. The recent border tensions with Pakistan could lead to a spike in India's defence budget. 'This would mean higher revenues and profits for the companies in this sector,' says Abhishek Kumar, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) registered investment advisor and founder, He adds that investing in these funds may also help investors diversify their portfolios beyond traditional sectors. Concentration, valuation risk Heavy inflows have driven many defence stocks up by 60–70 per cent annually over five years, leading to expensive valuations. 'The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Nifty 50 is 22, while the Nifty India Defence Index is at 52. The price-to-book value for the two indices is 4 and 13 respectively. Thus, the Nifty Defence Index valuations are more than two-three times the Nifty 50,' says Dhawan. HDFC Defence Fund stopped accepting investments in mid-2024 — a development that investors should regard as a cautionary signal. While defence firms are winning large orders, these typically take years to convert into revenue. 'This could create a mismatch between the size of the order book and immediate profitability,' says Dhawan. Kumar highlights that these funds could take a hit if defence spending slows or due to elevated valuations. Right time to enter? Given the sharp run-up, most investors should avoid entering now. Only those with a strong fundamental view of the sector and its companies should invest. 'These investors will have to be extremely patient and must be ready to ride out a down cycle before the sector moves up again,' says Belapurkar. Dhawan adds that only experienced investors with a high risk appetite, a grasp of market cycles, and comfort with volatility and timing risk should invest. Kumar cautions that conservative or inexperienced investors, those seeking stable returns, or those with short-term goals should stay away. Exposure to these funds should be taken in the satellite portfolio and limited to 5 per cent of the equity portfolio, while the minimum horizon should be 10 years. Investments should be staggered. Tactical investors should wait for valuations to normalise.
