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Scoop
09-08-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Stimulate Or Suffocate, In The Light Of Older Women's Spending?
In the wake of the recent release of labour force data (Household Labour Force Survey, HLFS, Nicola Willis bemoans 'glass half empty' view of unemployment figures, RNZ 6 August 2025), 1918-1920 National Party Leader Simon Bridges, has called for economic "stimulus" to rescue in particular the dire Auckland economy. (See Call for government to help Auckland as unemployment rises, RNZ; contrast the Minister of Finance Nicola Willis's retrospective and ongoing advocation of fiscal suffocation Dangers of Excessive Spending Highlighted, Scoop; both 7 August 2025.) My focus here is to look at the historical and recent employment rates of older women (aged over 55), and to consider the importance of their spending to the health or otherwise of the New Zealand economy. My reference is the first chart highlighted in Employment in New Zealand – especially of women – at the Age Margins, Evening Report, 7 August 2025. The chart shows that there is a huge increase in the percentage of older women who meet the official definition of employment. (This generous definition includes wage/salary workers – fulltime or part-time – self-employed workers, active employers, and people working without wages in a family business.) The data reveals a huge increase in the 'participation rate' of older women in the labour market. The age group 60-64 had a particular impetus to retire later, namely the rise in the early 1990s of the age of entitlement to New Zealand Superannuation from age 60 to age 65. But the pattern is essentially the same also for women in their late fifties and in their late sixties. The appropriate benchmark year is 1987, by time the HLFS was bedded in and before the economic consequences of the financial crash in late 1987. While the high period for employment of older women is 2022 or 2023, when jobs were plentiful, we can be sure that the actual participation rate has not fallen since 2022, and has probably continued to rise. (We can disregard participation rates published in the HLFS; they are based on definitions of unemployment which only realistically apply to men aged 30 to 60. There is much 'hidden unemployment' amongst older women.) For women aged 55-59, we see a rise in labour market activity from 43 percent to 80% in 2018 and 2023. For women aged 60-64, we see a rise in labour market activity from 18 percent to 70% in 2022. (The dip for this early-sixties age group in the late 1980s and early 1990s is unemployment masquerading as 'retirement'.) For women aged 65-69, we see a rise in labour market activity from 8 percent to 44% in 2022. For women aged over 70, we see a tenfold rise in labour market activity from 1995 to 2025. (We desperately need a '70-74' age category in the published data; this 'early-seventies' cohort is likely to now be New Zealand's fastest growing employment demographic.) Overall, this truly massive labour force participation of older women in the last thirty years has been a barely noticed social revolution. The increase of employed older women is even more dramatic than these figures look, because New Zealand's highest birth numbers were in the late 1950s and the early 1960s. These women are now in their sixties, and born with higher life-expectancies than their parents. It seems unlikely that this increased labour force participation is a result of the rise of feminism in the 1970s; an increased advocacy for paid work was one plank of that feminism. Though feminism may have played a significant but lesser role in this huge social change. It seems far more likely that the main driving force is economic pressure upon households; stresses that have increasingly required all adult household members to be attached to the labour force, rather than the pre-1980s' emphasis on an individual (typically male) 'breadwinner'. The stresses initially hit households hardest in the late 1980s through massive rises in mortgage interest rates, and in the more frequent revision of interest rates by banks during the lifespans of home loans. To that we can add an increased reliance on other forms of personal debt, such as credit cards. The ongoing stresses relate to both the increased precarity of paid work for men and women – meaning women increasingly having to make significant contributions to household budgets – and the failure of hourly wages to keep up with gross domestic product per capita. In order to be able to buy the goods and services which made up our GDP, we needed ever more hours of household labour. Older households were able to hold out for longer against these pressures, but not forever. Hence, most of the increases of labour force engagement for these households have taken place in the last thirty years. Older Women's Spending What all this means is that, in the 2020s, a critical component of consumer spending is done by older households, and in particular older women. Their spending is a major source of 'stimulus' in the 2020s' economy. It is already apparent that suburban cafes, for example, survive very much with the help of patronage from groups of older women. By and large, most policymakers worldwide have now forgotten the lessons of the Great Depression of the 1930s. One of the most important lessons was that countries which had inbuilt means to keep incomeless households spending suffered much less in the peak years – the early 1930s – of that Depression. (These countries included the United Kingdom and Sweden; they contrast with France and the United States, which were still in Depression in 1939.) France in particular could not get out of that Depression. In part because of World War One deaths and injuries, it relied very much on immigrant labour (mainly from North Africa). It also relied on female and male urban labour from people with rural connections. So, when the Depression hit, the redundant workers – having no access to benefit incomes – simply returned to either Africa or to their parents' small farms. Most of Aotearoa's older women cannot emigrate if they lose their incomes. But most of them will not be able to draw on a benefit to offset their lost wages. Some are already receiving New Zealand Superannuation, and that will rise a little as the marginal tax rates on their 'Super' will come down. What of those under 65 who lose their incomes, noting that many employed women age 55-64 live in households which pay mortgages or rent? Most will not qualify for an MSD benefit; they will be fully reliant on their partners' or adult children's wages. Some, who do qualify for benefits, will face stand-downs of several weeks or months; and time engaging with MSD that would be better spent with their grandchildren or elderly parents. One particular group of older women is those, mainly in their early sixties, who used to be able to get a 'non-qualifying spouse Superannuation benefit', ie if their partners were superannuitant pensioners with minimal other income. (With zero fanfare, one of the first things the Labour Government did, in October 2020, was to cancel these women's entitlement to what was an important form of transitional income support.) These women, grandmothers in large part, are the 'breadwinners' in their senior households. If they lose their jobs (or their 'roles' as we are now supposed to say), that means a potentially catastrophic loss of household income. (We should note as an example that the New Zealand Polytechnic sector, currently undergoing significant restructuring and financial downsizing, has a particularly important portfolio of older female employees; many of these workers have substantial institutional memory, keeping their organisations functioning more than many of the younger managers appreciate.) MSD should be focussed on helping young people to find paid work, and not having their resources logjammed by older women who would have previously had access to income support without red tape. The Laws of Stimulus The First Law of Holes, is 'stop digging'. (We note that a 'depression' is, literally, a hole.) Finance Minister Nicola Willis is digging furiously, burying alive suffocating Kiwis. The first law of stimulus is to stop public-sector retrenchment. That is the main single lesson from the near-forgotten Great Depression. The second law of stimulus is to have rights-based alternative sources of income that individuals of all ages can fall back on. The third law of stimulus is to stop pursuing a monetary policy that jacks-up interest rates; the 'cost-of-living crisis' is substantially a 'cost of jacked-up interest rates' crisis. (As I have already noted, debt is something that drives more people into the labour force; it's not just the amount of debt, it's also the cost of that debt.) We may note that New Zealand got out of the Great Depression by adopting all three laws of stimulus. And a fourth law, by using the cheap money to embark upon a very successful 'state housing' program, New Zealand recovered in 1936 to 1938 with double-digit economic growth and near-zero inflation. Some of those houses, well-built, are worth a fortune now. Fletchers and other capitalists made a fortune, too; this is the kind of stimulus which would meet Simon Bridges' business-perspective criteria. Homelessness was not acceptable to New Zealanders back then, as it seems to be now. Are we looking at a coming decade of escalating homelessness for older women? When just about every adult is 'in the labour force' – unhidden or hidden – desperately needing income while employment 'roles' are in decline, the social stresses cannot be contained forever. Younger people may revolt, turning to the underclass-politics of the street. Older people are more likely to die unseen, as too many did in July 2022 (many denied desperately-needed second-booster vaccines) when the Covid19 pandemic really hit Aotearoa New Zealand. Do any groups of influential people out there have the imagination and capacity to answer the call for humane economic revival? Or is it a case of those who would can't, and those who could don't? ------------- Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand. Keith Rankin Political Economist, Scoop Columnist Keith Rankin taught economics at Unitec in Mt Albert since 1999. An economic historian by training, his research has included an analysis of labour supply in the Great Depression of the 1930s, and has included estimates of New Zealand's GNP going back to the 1850s. Keith believes that many of the economic issues that beguile us cannot be understood by relying on the orthodox interpretations of our social science disciplines. Keith favours a critical approach that emphasises new perspectives rather than simply opposing those practices and policies that we don't like. Keith retired in 2020 and lives with his family in Glen Eden, Auckland.
NZ Herald
29-07-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Inside Economics: Why the job market feels worse than the numbers look
I think, sadly, we can expect that tone to remain for the next few months at least. Next week we'll get the official unemployment rate, based on the Stats NZ Household Labour Force (HLFS) survey. This week's data was part of a monthly series that Stats NZ produces by tracking payroll filings with the IRD. It's timely data, but often prone to revision. That big one for economists arrives next Wednesday with Stats NZ's quarterly labour market data release. That will include employment and unemployment statistics from the HLFS as well as wage data from the Labour Cost Index and the Quarterly Employment Survey. After seeing the monthly employment data this week, economists at BNZ and ANZ are expecting unemployment will land at 5.3% – up from 5.1% for the March quarter – and higher than the Reserve Bank's earlier forecast of 5.2%. As expected... It's probably worth remembering that none of this is a surprise. These numbers have been widely forecast by economists. In April last year, as the job market was starting to get tough, I wrote: 'Economists expect that there will be somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 more unemployed people by this time next year.' 'Expectations are that we'll eventually see the unemployment rate peak between 5.1 and 5.7 per cent in this cycle.' And here we are. Hopefully, unemployment peaks soon, although based on the gloomy second quarter we've just had, it might not be until the end of the year. It's likely that it will peak at around 5.5% which, believe it or not, is in line with the historic average. Stats NZ's long-running Household Labour Force Survey shows the average rate has been 5.5% since 1986. The data reached an all-time high of 11.2% in September 1991 and a record low of 3.2% in March 2022. If it's just average, then why does it feel so bad? One issue is that we are coming off that record low in 2022. So the transition we're experiencing is intense, even if the endpoint isn't going to be historically unprecedented. The level of unemployment is also being flattered by the large number of Kiwis leaving the country or opting out of the workforce to return to study. The participation rate – the number of adults actively engaged in the job market – has fallen to around 70%, the lowest rate since 2020. Another factor that may be skewing the average is the number of underemployed people. The HLFS is very specific in its definition of unemployment. It only counts people who have worked no hours at all. Those who worked part-time but would like to work more hours are classified as underemployed. It seems likely that higher levels of underemployment are also flattering the topline unemployment rate. So while the official unemployment rate tends to get all the headlines, these other variables are important to factor in. Different measures Economists can also look to data from big recruitment firms like Seek. The number of published job ads is a good barometer of the labour market. June figures were released by Seek this week. BNZ economists noted that the trend in job ads had 'resumed its downward slide, declining another 1.2% in June'. Then there are the Ministry of Social Development's benefit numbers. They aren't looking too flash either. There was a total of 216,000 people on a Jobseeker benefit in June, up from 196,000 a year earlier. Confusingly, the Jobseeker benefit category now includes those we would have once called sickness beneficiaries, as well as those we'd call unemployed. When we strip out those with health conditions or disabilities, the total was 120,000, up from 114,000 in June 2024 and 99,000 in June 2023. Despite all the intricacies and variables of the different measures, one thing we can say with confidence is that the labour market does not look to be in good shape, and the trend is still getting worse. But the labour market is considered a 'lagging indicator' for the economy. In other words, it's about the last thing to turn in an economic cycle. On the way down, employment usually holds up well as the economy slows. Firms are reluctant to let good workers go, knowing how hard it can be to find staff when things get busy again. On the flip side, unemployment often peaks well after the economy has begun its recovery, as firms remain cautious about expanding and hiring new workers until they are confident that the upturn will be sustained. That perhaps offers some consolation as gloomy employment numbers continue to roll in over the next few months. It's always darkest before the dawn and all that... Bright spots Monday's job numbers weren't all bad. For starters, the monthly numbers were positive (just) at 0.1%. But economists weren't hugely impressed by that, given, these monthly figures tend to be revised down. Revisions to previous months contributed to the worse-than-expected annual result. More promising were figures that showed that the primary sector is creating jobs. The sector had its largest month-on-month rise, at 0.9%, since 2023. As Informetrics economist Matthew Allman noted: 'emerging trends in filled jobs seem to match broader trends we have been seeing in the economic recovery, with better export earnings boosting the primary sector'. But the flow-on effects are yet to hit other areas of the economy, such as manufacturing and services industries, he said. That's creating a regional divide too, as southern regions benefit from the agricultural export boom. Southland, in particular, has experienced solid job growth in recent months. Here's hoping some of that positivity flows north. The biggest hit to employment in the past year has been in the construction sector. Compared to the previous year to June, construction lost 12,169 jobs (down 6%). It's not surprising Auckland's economy is struggling. Trump's tariff deadline looms Donald Trump's big tariff deadline is looming large this week and somewhat predictably threatens to rattle markets, which have been on something of a bull run in the past few weeks. It passes on Friday (Saturday NZT). President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump during a meeting at Trump Turnberry golf club on July 27, 2025 in Turnberry, Scotland. U.S. President Donald Trump is visiting his Trump Turnberry golf course, as well as Trump International Golf Links in Aberdeenshire, during a brief visit to Scotland from July 25 to 29. Photo / Getty Images The US has now done deals with Japan, the UK, Europe, and it looks to have some kind of truce with China, so that should help ease concerns. There's also a likelihood of further deadline extensions if it looks like markets are seriously melting down. Donald Trump has shown over the past few months that he is prepared to push things to the brink but will do what he has to avoid a major crash – even if that leaves him looking like he has backed down. But the deadline remains a wildcard in a week of big economic news for the US. Economists estimate that the US will likely end up with a baseline average tariff of around 15-20%. Markets seem to have accepted that so far. But, while that is an improvement over the shock and awe of Trump's Liberation Day proclamations, it still represents a major setback to global trade. We're also still waiting to see what the real-world effects of the tariffs will be. So far, the impact on US inflation has been muted. On the one hand, that is promising. Perhaps the tariffs won't be as economically damaging as everyone expected. On the other hand, the delays and deals we're yet to see the full impact of the tariffs and the positive early signs might just embolden Trump to push a bit harder. We'll also get an interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday in the US (Thursday NZT). It is not expected to cut rates, which means we can probably expect some fireworks as the President makes it clear what he thinks of that. The US also gets jobs data and GDP data this week. So all up it's looking like a big week for markets as they try to unpick the state of the United States. Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003. To sign up to my weekly newsletter, click on your user profile at and select 'My newsletters'. For a step-by-step guide, click here. If you have a burning question about the quirks or intricacies of economics send it to or leave a message in the comments section.
Scoop
01-07-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Household Labour Force Survey Population Rebase From 2023 Estimated Resident Population
This report outlines the effect of estimated resident population (ERP) revisions on the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) for the September 2018–March 2025 quarters. Key points We have revised the historical HLFS data from the September 2018 quarter to the March 2025 quarter and investigated the effects of revised national population estimates (NPE), Māori population estimates (MPE), and subnational population estimates, on our series. While there were substantive changes to high-level estimates, the effects on key rates were negligible at the national level. The main effects of the revision between the September 2018 and March 2025 quarters are set out below: overall decrease in the working-age population, from 4,335,000 to 4,297,000 in the March 2025 quarter, with both male and female working-age populations decreasing by a similar amount overall increase in the Māori working-age population, from 649,700 to 658,300 in the March 2025 quarter, with the wāhine Māori working-age population increasing more than the tāne Māori working-age population the number of employed people decreased slightly faster than the number of people in the working-age population, leading to a downward revision in the seasonally adjusted employment rate in the March 2025 quarter, from 67.2 percent to 67.1 percent the working-age population was revised downward for men and women in most age groups in the March 2025 quarter, with the only upward revisions for teenagers (aged 15–19 years, men and women) and women aged 20–24 years all regional working-age population estimates were revised down. The largest percentage decreases were in Otago (down 2.3 percent, 5,100 people) and Southland (down 2.1 percent, 1,800 people) in the March 2025 quarter. Visit our website to read this report and to download CSV files: Household Labour Force Survey population rebase from 2023 estimated resident population: Using Scoop for work? Scoop is free for personal use, but you'll need a licence for work use. This is part of our Ethical Paywall and how we fund Scoop. Join today with plans starting from less than $3 per week, plus gain access to exclusive Pro features. Join Pro Individual Find out more
Scoop
24-06-2025
- Business
- Scoop
National Labour Force Projections: 2024(Base)–2078
National labour force projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the labour force usually living in New Zealand based on assumptions about labour force participation and average hours worked, and current policy settings. Key facts National labour force projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the labour force living in Aotearoa New Zealand. All data cited here relate to June years. Data before 2024 are sourced from the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS, year ended June, unless otherwise stated). The projections indicate that: New Zealand's labour force will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow in the long-term the labour force will age, reflecting increasing labour force participation rates among males and females aged 50 years and over (50+), and the general ageing of the population. Visit our website to read this information release:
