Latest news with #HaithamAlGhais
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Will Oil Demand Hit 123 Million Barrels Per Day By 2050 As OPEC Says?
(Photo: Bob Riha, Jr.) Earlier this month, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made yet another attempt to counter energy market chatter about oil demand peaking over the medium- to long-term. At its biennial international seminar in Vienna, Austria from July 9 to 10, the oil producers' group said there was ample evidence in the market for the long-term need for black gold. This need has now reached a point of definitiveness that no one is talking about peak oil demand any more if OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2050 - a fresh assessment report on emerging energy market trends - is to be believed. In the foreword of the report, published just before the conclusion of the seminar, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said: "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," given that "oil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives." That said the producers' group actually cut its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years faced with lower growth in China, a spread of electric vehicles in key markets, and an uncertain macroeconomic climate in the OECD countries. However, it lifted its longer-term view. Crude Projections On Oil Demand That view is based on an assumption that oil will remain 'indispensable' in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring the steady output of mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage. As for the projection figures, the OPEC report forecast that oil demand will average 105 million barrels per day this year. It then expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026, and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and continue rising to as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. 'Despite a marginal decline in its share, oil is set to maintain the largest share in the energy mix in 2050, at just below 30%. The combined share of oil and gas is expected to stay above 50% between 2024 and 2050. At the same time, the share of other renewables in the energy mix increases to 13.5% in 2050, up by 10 percentage points from 2024,' the report noted further. India, along with other Asian nations, the Middle East and Africa, are set to be the 'primary sources of long-term oil demand growth.' Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, the OPEC report noted, with India alone adding 8.2 million bpd. 'China's oil demand is projected to increase by less than 2 million bpd over the same time horizon. Moreover, a large part of China's increase is expected to occur over the medium-term, with fewer demand changes expected for the rest of the forecast period.' Not Quite Some Say However, OPEC's long-term oil demand projections don't quite align with what a number of other commentators think. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to peak at 105.6 million bpd in 2029 before marginally declining as the end of the current decade approaches. Some in the industry also believe peak demand for oil is imminent this decade. Energy major BP said last year that it even may happen sooner than most people expect, including as early as this year under a specific set of circumstances, and given the rapid growth of renewable energy. Meanwhile, the Energy Institute's recent Statistical Review of World Energy 2025, a global report that was once compiled by BP until very recently, did not directly predict a peak, but noted that some regions and nations - especially China - are seeing a slowdown or plateau in oil demand. Given a 2050 horizon is more than two decades and a half away from now, predicting a peaking of oil demand or otherwise may have a direct corelation with the make-up of the global economy and varying regional productivity levels, boosted by digital tools, each year. Maxime Darmet, Senior Economist for U.S., France and the UK at Allianz Trade said: 'In the coming decades, global productivity will be shaped by the adoption of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and the enhancements and efficiencies they bring. This will likely drive up energy consumption, but also the efficient usage of energy. Countries that take the lead here would steal a march on others.' The Allianz Trade economist believes given the time horizon when it comes to predicting energy consumption and which source would dominate 25 to 30 years from now will likely be a tricky guesstimate at best. 'Look at the turmoil the global economy is currently facing in the wake of U.S. tariffs slapped by President Donald Trump. Such developments can change the trajectory of demand (and supply) of most commodities however long or short that impact is. Oil is no exception.' Furthermore, if the future of productivity, and indeed the global economy, is digital and AI driven requiring hyperscale data centers, then many including the likes of the IEA, energy majors Shell and Chevron, believe natural gas will likely be the near- to longer-term energy source that benefits. Be that as it may, few dispute that hydrocarbons will be part of the global economy and its energy mix for a while yet. Just that oil - OPEC's preferred one - might not be as dominant a source as the producers' group expects and hopes it would be. Therefore, the debate over peak oil demand and when it will occur won't be settled just yet.
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Opec's Secretary General calls for $18.2trln investment in O&G
The oil and gas sector needs $18.2 trillion in investments by 2050 to meet future demand, according to Haitham Al Ghais, Opec Secretary General. He stated that oil and gas are essential pillars for a stable and secure energy future, and that the world must invest now to be prepared for what lies ahead. Al Ghais made these comments in an interview with Energy Connects during the 9th Opec International Seminar, in Vienna, Austria. He pointed out that global energy demand was projected to increase by 23 per cent by 2050, with oil demand expected to reach 123 million barrels per day (bpd). He stressed that this growth necessitates substantial investments to ensure energy security, affordability, and reliability while addressing emissions from all sources. The theme of this year's seminar, 'Charting Pathways Together', underscored the importance of collective action in an increasingly fragmented energy landscape. Al Ghais highlighted Opec's commitment to unity, stating: "This is one planet we are living on. It's our planet." He called for a collaborative approach to energy issues, emphasising the need to care for the planet and work together to tackle challenges. Looking ahead, he reflected on the nearly 10-year journey of the Opec+ coalition, which will celebrate its anniversary in December 2026. He affirmed that the unity and cohesiveness within the coalition have never been stronger, with a shared goal of maintaining energy market stability, a vital aspect for the global economy. During the seminar, Al Ghais unveiled the World Oil Outlook 2025, presenting data-driven insights that challenge the narrative of an imminent decline in oil demand. He noted that the updated report indicated an increase in oil demand growth, projecting oil consumption at 123 million bpd by 2050. This reflects a shift in global policies, moving away from overly ambitious net-zero targets and recognising the ongoing necessity of oil in the energy mix, he added. Copyright 2024 Al Hilal Publishing and Marketing Group Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
OPEC expects oil demand surge in Q3, followed by tight supply-demand balance
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) anticipates a 'very strong' surge in oil demand in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, followed by a tight supply-demand balance, according to a Reuters report, citing sources. In collaboration with its allies, OPEC is set to increase oil production in response to anticipated robust demand in Q3 and a subsequent tight supply-demand balance. According to a report by Russian media RIA, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais conveyed these projections, highlighting the group's strategy to unwind years of output cuts designed to bolster the market, the report said. The OPEC+ producer group, which includes Russia, has been gradually reversing previous production cuts. OPEC+ is likely to sanction another significant output increase for September. This strategic move comes as the organisation prepares for forecasted demand growth. During a press interaction at last week's OPEC seminar in Vienna, Haitham Al Ghais projected an annual demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) by this year, driven by a strong global economy. He was quoted as saying: 'Especially in the third quarter, we are seeing very strong demand growth. And this is one of the main fundamental factors that is leading the group of eight countries to bring barrels back to the market.' Al Ghais further noted that the fourth quarter is also expected to witness substantial demand growth, leading to tighter market balances. Despite cutting its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years due to a slowdown in Chinese economic growth, OPEC has raised its longer-term outlook based on increasing consumption in developing countries. The recently published 2025 World Oil Outlook estimates that global demand will average 105mbpd this year. This is projected to grow to an average of 106.3mbpd in 2026 and then ascend to 111.6mbpd by 2029. "OPEC expects oil demand surge in Q3, followed by tight supply-demand balance" was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
OPEC projects 'very strong' third-quarter oil demand, followed by tight balance, RIA reports
Moscow: OPEC, which along with its allies is ramping up oil output, expects "very strong" oil demand in the third quarter and a tight supply-demand balance in the following months, its secretary general said, according to a Russian media report. The eight members of the OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, are unwinding years of cuts that had been aimed at supporting the market. Five sources told Reuters that OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September. Russia's RIA news agency quoted Haitham Al Ghais on Monday as telling journalists on the sidelines of last week's OPEC seminar in Vienna that the organisation expected demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day year on year in 2025 due to a strong global economy. "And that means we are seeing, especially in the third quarter, very strong demand growth," he said, according to the report. "In the fourth quarter also we're seeing good demand growth, and the balances will be tight. And this is one of the main fundamental factors that is leading for the group of eight countries to bring barrels back to the market," he added. Al Ghais' comments come as OPEC trimmed its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years last week on slowing Chinese growth, even as it lifted its longer-term view based on rising consumption in the developing world.
Zawya
14-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
OPEC projects 'very strong' third-quarter oil demand, followed by tight balance, RIA reports
MOSCOW - OPEC, which along with its allies is ramping up oil output, expects "very strong" oil demand in the third quarter and a tight supply-demand balance in the following months, its secretary general said, according to a Russian media report. The eight members of the OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, are unwinding years of cuts that had been aimed at supporting the market. Five sources told Reuters that OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September. Russia's RIA news agency quoted Haitham Al Ghais on Monday as telling journalists on the sidelines of last week's OPEC seminar in Vienna that the organisation expected demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day year on year in 2025 due to a strong global economy. "And that means we are seeing, especially in the third quarter, very strong demand growth," he said, according to the report. "In the fourth quarter also we're seeing good demand growth, and the balances will be tight. And this is one of the main fundamental factors that is leading for the group of eight countries to bring barrels back to the market," he added. Al Ghais' comments come as OPEC trimmed its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years last week on slowing Chinese growth, even as it lifted its longer-term view based on rising consumption in the developing world. Global demand will average 105 million barrels per day this year, OPEC said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook published on Thursday. It expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and then climb to 111.6 million bpd in 2029. (Reporting by Olesya Astakhova and Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Joe Bavier)
