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Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.
Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.

Year-over-year price growth slowed to 2.0% in April 2025, with single-family detached homes still growing at 2.46% annual rate while single-family detached homes posted a 0.08% decline — the first annual decline since 2012. Markets with continued largest home price gains this spring remain in Northeast and Midwest, particularly more affordable areas surrounding large expensive metros. Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. reported negative home price growth. IRVINE, Calif., June 03, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest Cotality Home Price Index™ (HPI™) for April 2025. April posted the lowest home price growth in more than a decade. Widespread concern about personal finances, job prospects, and potential tariff impacts continues to weigh on home prices. "Housing market headwinds continue to challenge homebuying demand, but improved for-sale supply is providing buyers with more options and helping keep softer price pressures for those looking to buy this spring. And while annual home price growth has slowed considerably, home prices this spring have held up, and gains have mostly mirrored trends seen before the pandemic. This is encouraging given the fears that consumer sentiment has faltered. Cotality's home price forecast for the coming month expects the solid home price trend to continue," said Cotality's Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. The Northeast, which has been an outlier in recent months and posting solid growth, had a couple of states reverse course in April. New York and Vermont posted home prices that were furthest from their peaks. Also, more markets are posting negative growth, with Hawaii, Florida, Texas, and Washington D.C. seeing price appreciation dip to -2%, -0.8%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively. "It is important to note that the number of markets where home prices are declining has not grown notably," explained Hepp. "About 14 of the 100 largest markets reported annual declines, up from 12 markets last month, with the majority concentrated in Florida and Texas. Cape Coral, Florida shows the largest annual decline at 7% year over year, and prices are back at levels seen in the spring of 2022." Florida continues to course correct after years of explosive growth. Cotality's Office of the Chief Economist reveals that several markets in the state are seeing price declines — the state overall saw -0.8% price appreciation in April — and all five of the U.S.'s most at-risk markets are located in the Sunshine State. Florida also saw its median sales price dip below the national median to $390,000, dropping the state out of the top 20 most expensive markets. The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released July 1, featuring data for May 2025. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: Methodology The Cotality HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Cotality HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index. About Market Risk Indicators Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. About the Market Condition Indicators As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%. Source: Cotality The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@ Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources. About Cotality Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at View source version on Contacts Media Contact Charity HeadCotalityNewsmedia@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.
Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.

Business Wire

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Business Wire

Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest Cotality Home Price Index™ (HPI™) for April 2025. April posted the lowest home price growth in more than a decade. Widespread concern about personal finances, job prospects, and potential tariff impacts continues to weigh on home prices. 'With more visibility around tariffs, diminishing concerns about an economic recession, and more homes for sale, the homebuying market could see some improved optimism and more activity going forward.' Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality Chief Economist Share 'Housing market headwinds continue to challenge homebuying demand, but improved for-sale supply is providing buyers with more options and helping keep softer price pressures for those looking to buy this spring. And while annual home price growth has slowed considerably, home prices this spring have held up, and gains have mostly mirrored trends seen before the pandemic. This is encouraging given the fears that consumer sentiment has faltered. Cotality's home price forecast for the coming month expects the solid home price trend to continue,' said Cotality's Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. The Northeast, which has been an outlier in recent months and posting solid growth, had a couple of states reverse course in April. New York and Vermont posted home prices that were furthest from their peaks. Also, more markets are posting negative growth, with Hawaii, Florida, Texas, and Washington D.C. seeing price appreciation dip to -2%, -0.8%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively. 'It is important to note that the number of markets where home prices are declining has not grown notably,' explained Hepp. 'About 14 of the 100 largest markets reported annual declines, up from 12 markets last month, with the majority concentrated in Florida and Texas. Cape Coral, Florida shows the largest annual decline at 7% year over year, and prices are back at levels seen in the spring of 2022.' Florida continues to course correct after years of explosive growth. Cotality's Office of the Chief Economist reveals that several markets in the state are seeing price declines — the state overall saw -0.8% price appreciation in April — and all five of the U.S.'s most at-risk markets are located in the Sunshine State. Florida also saw its median sales price dip below the national median to $390,000, dropping the state out of the top 20 most expensive markets. The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released July 1, featuring data for May 2025. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: Methodology The Cotality HPI ™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Cotality HPI Forecasts ™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index. About Market Risk Indicators Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. About the Market Condition Indicators As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%. Source: Cotality The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@ Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources. About Cotality Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at

4 Reasons Why Florida's ‘Growth Crisis' Could Lead To Homeowner Exodus
4 Reasons Why Florida's ‘Growth Crisis' Could Lead To Homeowner Exodus

Yahoo

time15-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

4 Reasons Why Florida's ‘Growth Crisis' Could Lead To Homeowner Exodus

Florida has long ranked at or near the top of most desirable states to live in because of its warm climate, sunny beaches, low taxes and abundant job opportunities. But that could be changing due to a rising number of challenges facing the Sunshine State. There are 'indications' that Floridians are leaving for other destinations, according to a study from Cotality, a provider of global property information, analytics and solutions. Roughly half of outbound Floridians are headed to nearby states that share similar living costs, job opportunities and weather but without the problems. Among the top destinations are Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee. Trending Now: For You: 'Florida's rapid [home] price appreciation combined with soaring home insurance prices and the threat of hurricanes has led people to start looking at other nearby states,' said Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. 'When people leave, they are staying in the South where there is relative affordability as well as access to large employment centers.' Florida's growth story 'isn't over,' according to Cotality. But the trickle of outbound movers 'could become a flood' if the Sunshine State doesn't fix certain problems. Below are four reasons why Florida's growth crisis could lead to a homeowner exodus. Also here are the most expensive cities in Florida. Florida's median home price hit $393,500 as of October 2024 to put it above the national average, Cotality found. Prices are even higher in the state's urban centers. The median listing price in Miami reached nearly $630,000, while Tampa has also seen a surge in home prices in recent years. Those rising prices, coupled with overall inflation in the Sunshine State, has made it increasingly difficult for homeowners to afford living there. 'Migration to Florida markets resulted in strong demand for housing and some of the highest rates of home price appreciation since the onset of the pandemic,' Hepp said. Check Out: Florida is a big state with plenty of room, a sunny climate and a flat geography — all of which have made it a magnet for new home construction over the decades. But lately there have been signs of a slowdown. In 2022, new-build permitting activity fell 9.7% from the previous year — its first dip since 2009, according to Cotality. Permits fell another 7.2% in 2023. These declines were largely the result of labor shortages, rising material costs and regulatory delays. Now developers must deal with the prospect of even higher costs due to President Donald Trump's tariff plans. This has made some builders hesitant to launch new projects. As new home inventory slows, prices could rise even further. As Florida's population has ballooned, the state has struggled to keep pace in terms of building or updating roads, schools and utilities. This in turn 'threatens to erode' its quality of life, according to Cotality. Commute times in major cities are increasing, public schools are in need of modernization and even drinking water has become a 'limited resource.' This might be the biggest threat to growth in some parts of the state. Florida is far and away the 'most hurricane-prone state' in the country, according to the Florida Museum of Natural History — and those hurricanes are becoming more frequent and intense as climate change contributes to warmer oceans. Severe weather creates all kinds of headaches for homeowners, ranging from expensive repair work and soaring insurance costs to deflated property values. More From GOBankingRates Surprising Items People Are Stocking Up On Before Tariff Pains Hit: Is It Smart? These 10 Used Cars Will Last Longer Than an Average New Vehicle 5 Little-Known Ways to Make Summer Travel More Affordable 5 Cities You Need To Consider If You're Retiring in 2025 Sources Cotality, 'Florida on the brink.' This article originally appeared on 4 Reasons Why Florida's 'Growth Crisis' Could Lead To Homeowner Exodus

Charge against former Wisconsin warden in inmate deaths is reduced to a misdemeanor

time28-04-2025

Charge against former Wisconsin warden in inmate deaths is reduced to a misdemeanor

JUNEAU, Wis. -- Prosecutors have reduced a felony misconduct charge against a former Wisconsin prison warden implicated in two inmate deaths to a misdemeanor as part of a plea deal, online court records indicated Monday. Hepp was charged with felony misconduct in office in June 2024 in the deaths of Cameron Williams and Donald Maier at the Waupun Correctional Institution, the state's oldest maximum security facility. He announced his retirement days before he was charged. Online court records show prosecutors reduced the misconduct charge Monday to violating state-county institution laws. The misconduct charge carried a maximum sentence of three-and-a-half years in prison and $10,000 in fines. The violation count is a misdemeanor punishable by up to 30 days in jail and $500 in fines. Hepp was due to appear in Dodge County Circuit Court on Monday afternoon for a joint plea-sentencing hearing. Online records show a plea agreement was filed Monday morning and Hepp was given a guilty plea questionnaire, a form that asks defendants if they knowingly and voluntarily plead guilty. Hepp's attorney, Michael Steinle, did not return a message from The Associated Press on Monday morning. Eight members of Hepp's staff were charged in June with abuse or misconduct in the deaths. Online court records show charges were dismissed against one of them this month and another pleaded guilty in September to a reduced count of misdemeanor violating laws governing a penal institution and was assessed a $250 fine. Cases are pending against the remaining six staffers. Williams died of a stroke at the prison in October 2023. His body was not discovered for at least 12 hours. Maier died of dehydration and malnutrition in February 2024. According to court documents, Williams told an inmate advocate three days before he died that he needed to go to a hospital but no action was taken. He had fallen in the shower two days earlier and had to crawl into his cell. A day before that he collapsed on the way back to his cell but neither fall was documented. No one checked on him the night he died. Maier had severe mental health problems but either refused or wasn't given his medication in the eight days leading up to his death, according to court documents. Another inmate told investigators guards turned off Maier's water after he flooded his cell. Guards said they turned water off and on for Maier, but investigators said no one told him when it was on and no one gave him food in the four days before his death. Asked if prison workers understand the water shut-off policy, Hepp told investigators that policies go out via email but he doesn't think anyone at any prison reads them. He said no American jail documents an inmate's every meal. The prison, with a stone exterior and high, castle-like guard towers, opened in 1854 and has long been a target for closure. Seven inmates, including Williams and Maier, have died there since 2023. One killed himself, one died of a fentanyl overdose and one died of what investigators suspect was suicide. Two more deaths are under investigation. A federal investigation into smuggling at the prison has so far netted at least one former employee who pleaded guilty to smuggling cellphones and drugs in exchange for money. Inmates have filed a class-action lawsuit alleging inhumane conditions and a lack of health care. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has rejected calls to shutter the facility, despite the problems. He has said he wants broader criminal justice reform and a plan to house the facility's roughly 1,700 inmates.

Charge against former Wisconsin warden in inmate deaths is reduced to a misdemeanor
Charge against former Wisconsin warden in inmate deaths is reduced to a misdemeanor

Yahoo

time28-04-2025

  • Yahoo

Charge against former Wisconsin warden in inmate deaths is reduced to a misdemeanor

JUNEAU, Wis. (AP) — Prosecutors have reduced a felony misconduct charge against a former Wisconsin prison warden implicated in two inmate deaths to a misdemeanor as part of a plea deal, online court records indicated Monday. Hepp was charged with felony misconduct in office in June 2024 in the deaths of Cameron Williams and Donald Maier at the Waupun Correctional Institution, the state's oldest maximum security facility. He announced his retirement days before he was charged. Online court records show prosecutors reduced the misconduct charge Monday to violating state-county institution laws. The misconduct charge carried a maximum sentence of three-and-a-half years in prison and $10,000 in fines. The violation count is a misdemeanor punishable by up to 30 days in jail and $500 in fines. Hepp was due to appear in Dodge County Circuit Court on Monday afternoon for a joint plea-sentencing hearing. Online records show a plea agreement was filed Monday morning and Hepp was given a guilty plea questionnaire, a form that asks defendants if they knowingly and voluntarily plead guilty. Hepp's attorney, Michael Steinle, did not return a message from The Associated Press on Monday morning. Warden's staff charged in deaths Eight members of Hepp's staff were charged in June with abuse or misconduct in the deaths. Online court records show charges were dismissed against one of them this month and another pleaded guilty in September to a reduced count of misdemeanor violating laws governing a penal institution and was assessed a $250 fine. Cases are pending against the remaining six staffers. Williams died of a stroke at the prison in October 2023. His body was not discovered for at least 12 hours. Maier died of dehydration and malnutrition in February 2024. According to court documents, Williams told an inmate advocate three days before he died that he needed to go to a hospital but no action was taken. He had fallen in the shower two days earlier and had to crawl into his cell. A day before that he collapsed on the way back to his cell but neither fall was documented. No one checked on him the night he died. Maier had severe mental health problems but either refused or wasn't given his medication in the eight days leading up to his death, according to court documents. Another inmate told investigators guards turned off Maier's water after he flooded his cell. Guards said they turned water off and on for Maier, but investigators said no one told him when it was on and no one gave him food in the four days before his death. Asked if prison workers understand the water shut-off policy, Hepp told investigators that policies go out via email but he doesn't think anyone at any prison reads them. He said no American jail documents an inmate's every meal. Multiple inmates have died at Waupun since 2023 The prison, with a stone exterior and high, castle-like guard towers, opened in 1854 and has long been a target for closure. Seven inmates, including Williams and Maier, have died there since 2023. One killed himself, one died of a fentanyl overdose and one died of what investigators suspect was suicide. Two more deaths are under investigation. A federal investigation into smuggling at the prison has so far netted at least one former employee who pleaded guilty to smuggling cellphones and drugs in exchange for money. Inmates have filed a class-action lawsuit alleging inhumane conditions and a lack of health care. Wisconsin's governor won't close the prison Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has rejected calls to shutter the facility, despite the problems. He has said he wants broader criminal justice reform and a plan to house the facility's roughly 1,700 inmates.

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