Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.
'With more visibility around tariffs, diminishing concerns about an economic recession, and more homes for sale, the homebuying market could see some improved optimism and more activity going forward.' Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality Chief Economist
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'Housing market headwinds continue to challenge homebuying demand, but improved for-sale supply is providing buyers with more options and helping keep softer price pressures for those looking to buy this spring. And while annual home price growth has slowed considerably, home prices this spring have held up, and gains have mostly mirrored trends seen before the pandemic. This is encouraging given the fears that consumer sentiment has faltered. Cotality's home price forecast for the coming month expects the solid home price trend to continue,' said Cotality's Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.
The Northeast, which has been an outlier in recent months and posting solid growth, had a couple of states reverse course in April. New York and Vermont posted home prices that were furthest from their peaks. Also, more markets are posting negative growth, with Hawaii, Florida, Texas, and Washington D.C. seeing price appreciation dip to -2%, -0.8%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively.
'It is important to note that the number of markets where home prices are declining has not grown notably,' explained Hepp. 'About 14 of the 100 largest markets reported annual declines, up from 12 markets last month, with the majority concentrated in Florida and Texas. Cape Coral, Florida shows the largest annual decline at 7% year over year, and prices are back at levels seen in the spring of 2022.'
Florida continues to course correct after years of explosive growth. Cotality's Office of the Chief Economist reveals that several markets in the state are seeing price declines — the state overall saw -0.8% price appreciation in April — and all five of the U.S.'s most at-risk markets are located in the Sunshine State. Florida also saw its median sales price dip below the national median to $390,000, dropping the state out of the top 20 most expensive markets.
The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released July 1, featuring data for May 2025. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: www.cotality.com/insights.
Methodology
The Cotality HPI ™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Cotality HPI Forecasts ™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.
Source: Cotality
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@Cotality.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
About Cotality
Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at www.cotality.com.
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Due to trends in tickets per creator, the Company updated its full-year revenue outlook range to $290 million to $296 million. As a result of the Company's significant reductions in operating expenses, it raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to approximately 7%, excluding non-routine items. The Company has not provided an outlook for GAAP net income (loss) or GAAP net income (loss) margin or reconciliations of expected Adjusted EBITDA to GAAP net income (loss) or expected Adjusted EBITDA margin to GAAP net income (loss) margin because GAAP net income (loss) and GAAP net income (loss) margin on a forward-looking basis are not available without unreasonable efforts due to the potential variability and complexity of the items that are excluded from Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin, such as stock-based compensation expense, foreign exchange rate gains and losses, and other non-recurring expenses. Earnings Webcast Information Event: Eventbrite Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call Date: Thursday, August 7, 2025 Time: 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time) Live Webcast Site: An archived webcast of the conference call will be accessible on Eventbrite's Investor Relations page, About Eventbrite Eventbrite is a global events marketplace that serves event creators and event-goers in nearly 180 countries. Since its inception, Eventbrite has been at the center of the experience economy, transforming the way people organize and attend events. The company was founded by Julia Hartz, Kevin Hartz, and Renaud Visage, with a vision to build a self-service platform that empowers anyone to host and discover live experiences. In 2024, Eventbrite distributed over 83 million paid tickets to over 4.7 million events, helping people find new things to do or new ways to do more of what they love. Eventbrite has also earned industry recognition as a top employer, with special designations that include a coveted spot on Fast Company's prestigious 'The World's 50 Most Innovative Companies' and 'Brands That Matter' lists, the Great Place to Work® Award in the U.S., and Inc.'s 'Best-Led Companies' honor. Learn more at Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, statements regarding the future performance of Eventbrite, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries (the 'Company'); the Company's ability to return to growth; the Company's capital structure; and the Company's expectations described under 'Business Outlook' above. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terms such as 'may,' 'will,' 'appears,' 'shall,' 'should,' 'expects,' 'plans,' 'anticipates,' 'could,' 'intends,' 'target,' 'projects,' 'contemplates,' 'believes,' 'estimates,' 'predicts,' 'potential,' or 'continue,' or the negative of these words or other similar terms or expressions that concern the Company's expectations, strategy, plans, or intentions. Such statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions, and other factors that may cause the Company's actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from results expressed or implied in this press release, including the impact of the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, including but not limited to, tariffs, expanded trade controls, taxes, conflicts around the world, inflation and changes in interest rates, and related shifts in consumer behavior and spending, and other factors more fully described in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, other filings that the Company makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these statements. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied. All forward-looking statements are based on information and estimates available to the Company at the time of this release, and are not guarantees of future performance, and reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. Except as required by law, the Company assumes no obligation to update any of the statements in this press release. Disclaimer Regarding Ticketing, Creator and Event Metrics This press release includes certain measures related to our ticketing business, such as paid tickets and paid creators. We believe that the use of these metrics is helpful to our investors as these metrics are used by management in assessing the health of our business and our operating performance. These metrics are based on what we believe to be reasonable estimates for the applicable period of measurement. There are inherent challenges in measuring these metrics, and we regularly review and may adjust our processes for calculating our internal metrics to improve their accuracy. You should not consider these metrics in isolation or as substitutes for analysis of our results of operations as reported under GAAP. Condensed Consolidated Statement of Operations (in thousands, except share and per share amounts; unaudited) Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 2024 2025 2024 Net revenue $ 72,758 $ 84,551 $ 146,591 $ 170,803 Cost of net revenue 23,651 24,611 48,057 49,643 Gross profit 49,107 59,940 98,534 121,160 Operating expenses Product development 18,161 26,057 39,098 52,741 Sales, marketing and support 20,399 24,521 41,922 45,390 General and administrative 16,887 15,816 33,578 37,053 Total operating expenses 55,447 66,394 114,598 135,184 Loss from operations (6,340 ) (6,454 ) (16,064 ) (14,024 ) Interest income 3,961 7,382 7,715 14,789 Interest expense (1,094 ) (2,806 ) (2,174 ) (5,606 ) Other income (expense), net 2,211 3,725 3,418 2,472 Income (loss) before income taxes (1,262 ) 1,847 (7,105 ) (2,369 ) Income tax provision 845 784 1,613 1,058 Net income (loss) $ (2,107 ) $ 1,063 $ (8,718 ) $ (3,427 ) Net income (loss) per share Basic $ (0.02 ) $ 0.01 $ (0.09 ) $ (0.04 ) Diluted $ (0.02 ) $ 0.01 $ (0.09 ) $ (0.04 ) Weighted-average number of shares outstanding used to compute net income (loss) per share Basic 96,114 96,142 95,442 95,557 Diluted 96,114 96,290 95,442 95,557 Expand Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (in thousands, Unaudited) Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 2024 Cash flows from operating activities Net loss $ (8,718 ) $ (3,427 ) Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation and amortization 8,257 7,242 Stock-based compensation expense 17,703 29,239 Amortization of debt discount and issuance costs 631 1,057 Unrealized (gain) loss on foreign currency exchange (3,921 ) 1,288 Accretion on short-term investments (41 ) (2,769 ) Non-cash operating lease expenses 318 273 Amortization of creator signing fees 1,006 401 Changes related to creator advances, creator signing fees, and allowance for credit losses 609 (2,920 ) Provision for chargebacks and refunds 9,597 14,559 Gain on litigation settlement — (3,927 ) Other 857 623 Changes in operating assets and liabilities Accounts receivable 878 (2,866 ) Funds receivable 13,448 19,653 Creator signing fees and creator advances (3,433 ) (3,922 ) Prepaid expenses and other assets (627 ) 1,291 Accounts payable, creators 13,933 12,852 Accounts payable (658 ) (366 ) Chargebacks and refunds reserve (9,354 ) (14,415 ) Accrued compensation and benefits 4,489 (8,988 ) Accrued taxes (1,690 ) (3,840 ) Operating lease liabilities (1,104 ) (991 ) Other accrued liabilities (284 ) (3,773 ) Net cash provided by operating activities 41,896 36,274 Cash flows from investing activities Purchases of short-term investments — (112,185 ) Maturities of short-term investments 25,000 212,002 Purchases of property and equipment (61 ) (403 ) Capitalized internal-use software development costs (1,795 ) (4,818 ) Net cash provided by investing activities 23,144 94,596 Cash flows from financing activities Repurchase of common stock — (36,508 ) Taxes paid related to net share settlement of equity awards (2,437 ) (5,776 ) Proceeds from issuance of common stock under ESPP 164 454 Net cash used in financing activities (2,273 ) (41,830 ) Effect of exchange rate changes on cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash 11,206 (2,741 ) Net increase in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash 73,973 86,299 Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash Beginning of period 464,531 489,200 End of period $ 538,504 $ 575,499 Expand About Non-GAAP Financial Measures We believe that the use of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin is helpful to investors in understanding and evaluating results of operations and useful measures for period-to-period comparisons of the company's business performance as they are metrics used by management in assessing the health of the company's business and operating performance, making operating decisions, and performing strategic planning and annual budgeting. These measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP and have limitations as an analytical tool, and you should not consider them in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of our results of operations as reported under GAAP. In addition, other companies may not calculate non-GAAP financial measures in the same manner as we calculate them, limiting their usefulness as comparative measures. You are encouraged to evaluate the adjustments and the reasons we consider them appropriate. Some amounts in this press release may not add due to rounding. Adjusted EBITDA We calculate Adjusted EBITDA as net income (loss) adjusted to exclude depreciation and amortization, stock-based compensation expense, interest expense, interest income, employer taxes related to employee transactions, other (income) expense net, which consists of foreign exchange rate gains and losses, income tax provision (benefit), and significant and non-recurring legal matters, net of insurance recoveries. Adjusted EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to net income (loss) or any other measure of financial performance calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. Beginning in the current fiscal quarter, we updated our definition of Adjusted EBITDA to include certain significant and non-recurring legal matters, net of insurance recoveries, that we consider to be non-recurring and not reflective of our ongoing operations. This change better aligns Adjusted EBITDA with how management evaluates our core operating performance. This change in definition is applied prospectively beginning with the three months ended June 30, 2025. Prior periods have not been recast, as there is no impact to any previously reported amounts. Some of the limitations of Adjusted EBITDA include (i) Adjusted EBITDA does not properly reflect capital spending that occurs off of the income statement or account for future contractual commitments, (ii) although depreciation and amortization are non-cash charges, the underlying assets may need to be replaced and Adjusted EBITDA does not reflect these capital expenditures and (iii) Adjusted EBITDA does not reflect the interest and principal required to service our indebtedness. In evaluating Adjusted EBITDA, you should be aware that in the future we expect to incur expenses similar to the adjustments in this release. Our presentation of Adjusted EBITDA should not be construed as an inference that future results will be unaffected by these expenses or any unusual or non-routine items. When evaluating performance, you should consider Adjusted EBITDA alongside other financial performance measures, including net income (loss) and other GAAP results. Adjusted EBITDA Margin Adjusted EBITDA Margin is defined as Adjusted EBITDA divided by net revenue. Because of the limitations described above, you should consider Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin alongside other financial performance measures, including net loss, net loss margin, and other GAAP results.
