Latest news with #HeraldVanDerLinde
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Good Prospects for Chinese Companies to Flourish, HSBC Says
HSBC's Herald van der Linde shares his outlook for Asian and Chinese equities on Bloomberg Television. He says "there is good prospects for these companies to flourish." For the Chinese stock market in particular, he advises looking at banks as well as "companies that will become global leaders in their respective industries," such as EVs and industrial robotics. (Source: Bloomberg)
Economic Times
23-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India emerges as Trump-proof safe haven as emerging markets rebound
India's domestic focus shields it from global trade uncertainty Live Events Manufacturing growth signals confidence Sector focus: Banks, Consumption, and Healthcare stand out India's valuation reset sparks renewed interest (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel India is emerging as a relatively Trump-proof haven amid the broader rebound in emerging market sentiment. According to Herald Van Der Linde, HSBC's Head of Asia Pacific Equity Strategy, the country's strong domestic focus and more attractive valuations are rekindling investor market investor sentiment improved on Wednesday as Asian equities rose and regional currencies softened against a firmer U.S. dollar, following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump that eased concerns over Federal Reserve independence and future China to Van Der Linde, interest in emerging markets had begun to revive even before the latest geopolitical developments. 'The growth outlook was starting to get better... particularly in China and some others, while India was a bit of an outlier,' he said in an interview with ET Now. However, with tariffs and policy uncertainty reshaping the global investment landscape, markets with strong domestic drivers are gaining Der Linde explained that India's relatively insulated position in the current geopolitical environment makes it a more attractive investment destination. "If you are a market that is largely domestically oriented, not so much exposed to trade, and... where valuations look more reasonable than a year ago, these start to look interesting," he said. Unlike other Asian economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, which are heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., India's economy is driven more by domestic consumption and global growth slowing down due to trade tensions, India's economy remains structurally sound. "Growth is slowing, but still the feeling is that structurally growth in India over the next couple of years should be okay,' Van Der Linde said. 'Earnings growth somewhere between 10% to 15%... in the current kind of global environment that does not look too bad.' This outlook is significantly more favourable than that for export-dependent markets, where the impact of tariffs has been more strong domestic story is further supported by robust economic data. The country's private sector showed robust growth in April, driven by strong demand, particularly from international markets, which further underscores the nation's domestic resilience. The HSBC flash India Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 60.0 in April, up from 59.5 in March. This marked the strongest pace of combined manufacturing and services growth since August, Reuters growth played a central role in the strong performance, with the index rising to 58.4 from 58.1, reaching its highest level in a year. Meanwhile, the services PMI index also showed positive momentum, climbing to a four-month high of 59.1 from 58.5 in March. The growth outlook for India continues to be positive, with strong demand from both domestic and international markets, Van Der Linde to sectors of interest within India, Van Der Linde highlighted that large liquid sectors with reasonable valuations are attracting foreign investor attention. 'The sectors that we talk about with mostly foreign investors are to a large extent large liquid sectors where valuations are reasonable,' he said. Specifically, private banks, as well as sectors with growth stories insulated from macroeconomic swings, are particularly appealing.'Think about, for example, rising consumption or demand for medical and healthcare in India, such as hospitals,' Van Der Linde said. The shift toward consumption-driven growth is one of the key factors that differentiate India from other emerging markets where export-driven sectors read | Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? HSBC's cautious stance on India in the past year has shifted, with Van Der Linde noting that market conditions now look more balanced. "Valuations are lower, and the realisation that earnings growth is not going to be as fantastic as it was over the last couple of years is now well priced into the market," he said. With some policy support potentially on the horizon, India's equity market looks increasingly attractive to investors seeking stability amidst global Van Der Linde emphasised that the broader market environment remains volatile. The uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and other global factors continues to create challenges for businesses trying to make investment decisions. "It's that uncertainty to investments primarily by firms that is really leading to a sort of dislocation in markets," he noted.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India emerges as Trump-proof safe haven as emerging markets rebound
India is emerging as a resilient haven amid a rebound in emerging market sentiment, driven by its domestic-focused economy and more attractive valuations. HSBC's Herald Van Der Linde highlights India's insulation from global trade tensions and steady earnings growth as key factors drawing investor interest, especially in sectors like banking, consumption, and healthcare, despite ongoing global uncertainties. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads India's domestic focus shields it from global trade uncertainty Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Manufacturing growth signals confidence Sector focus: Banks, Consumption, and Healthcare stand out India's valuation reset sparks renewed interest Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads India is emerging as a relatively Trump-proof haven amid the broader rebound in emerging market sentiment. According to Herald Van Der Linde, HSBC's Head of Asia Pacific Equity Strategy, the country's strong domestic focus and more attractive valuations are rekindling investor market investor sentiment improved on Wednesday as Asian equities rose and regional currencies softened against a firmer U.S. dollar, following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump that eased concerns over Federal Reserve independence and future China to Van Der Linde, interest in emerging markets had begun to revive even before the latest geopolitical developments. 'The growth outlook was starting to get better... particularly in China and some others, while India was a bit of an outlier,' he said in an interview with ET Now. However, with tariffs and policy uncertainty reshaping the global investment landscape, markets with strong domestic drivers are gaining Der Linde explained that India's relatively insulated position in the current geopolitical environment makes it a more attractive investment destination. "If you are a market that is largely domestically oriented, not so much exposed to trade, and... where valuations look more reasonable than a year ago, these start to look interesting," he said. Unlike other Asian economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, which are heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., India's economy is driven more by domestic consumption and global growth slowing down due to trade tensions, India's economy remains structurally sound. "Growth is slowing, but still the feeling is that structurally growth in India over the next couple of years should be okay,' Van Der Linde said. 'Earnings growth somewhere between 10% to 15%... in the current kind of global environment that does not look too bad.' This outlook is significantly more favourable than that for export-dependent markets, where the impact of tariffs has been more strong domestic story is further supported by robust economic data. The country's private sector showed robust growth in April, driven by strong demand, particularly from international markets, which further underscores the nation's domestic resilience. The HSBC flash India Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 60.0 in April, up from 59.5 in March. This marked the strongest pace of combined manufacturing and services growth since August, Reuters growth played a central role in the strong performance, with the index rising to 58.4 from 58.1, reaching its highest level in a year. Meanwhile, the services PMI index also showed positive momentum, climbing to a four-month high of 59.1 from 58.5 in March. The growth outlook for India continues to be positive, with strong demand from both domestic and international markets, Van Der Linde to sectors of interest within India, Van Der Linde highlighted that large liquid sectors with reasonable valuations are attracting foreign investor attention. 'The sectors that we talk about with mostly foreign investors are to a large extent large liquid sectors where valuations are reasonable,' he said. Specifically, private banks, as well as sectors with growth stories insulated from macroeconomic swings, are particularly appealing.'Think about, for example, rising consumption or demand for medical and healthcare in India, such as hospitals,' Van Der Linde said. The shift toward consumption-driven growth is one of the key factors that differentiate India from other emerging markets where export-driven sectors read | Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? HSBC's cautious stance on India in the past year has shifted, with Van Der Linde noting that market conditions now look more balanced. "Valuations are lower, and the realisation that earnings growth is not going to be as fantastic as it was over the last couple of years is now well priced into the market," he said. With some policy support potentially on the horizon, India's equity market looks increasingly attractive to investors seeking stability amidst global Van Der Linde emphasised that the broader market environment remains volatile. The uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and other global factors continues to create challenges for businesses trying to make investment decisions. "It's that uncertainty to investments primarily by firms that is really leading to a sort of dislocation in markets," he noted.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Private banks lead India's sectoral narrative for global investors: Herald Van Der Linde
"China, to a certain extent India was a bit of an outlier actually, but China and some of the other countries looked like things were starting to improve in those economies and the earnings growth was improving as well," says Herald Van Der Linde , HSBC. First up help us with the sentiment that is boarding for the emerging market specifically because of late we have seen that the whole worries with respect to the Trump tariff that seems to be abating a bit, but do you believe that the investors are once again considering the emerging markets in a deep sense and how is India placed overall? Herald Van Der Linde: Yes, clearly there seem to be some interest in the emerging markets. Actually, I think that was already rising to a certain extent prior to the announcements of the tariffs in the last two weeks or so. So, there was interest in emerging markets rising that is to a certain extent because the growth outlook was starting to get better. China, to a certain extent India was a bit of an outlier actually, but China and some of the other countries looked like things were starting to improve in those economies and the earnings growth was improving as well. Of course, since then a lot of things have changed. Tariffs have been imposed as of course you all know so very well and that has changed the rules of the games to a certain extent. We now see a weaker dollar that is generally positive for emerging markets. We see that outflows from the US and they have to go somewhere in the rest of the world and if you are a market that is largely domestically oriented, so not so much exposed to trade and you have a stock market that has already actually come off and where valuations look a little bit more reasonable than they were a year ago, then of course these things start to look quite interesting. So, emerging markets interest comes a little bit back but India within that looks actually pretty okay at the moment. Also, share with us your view on how much do you believe the Indian domestic growth stories insulated from the tariffs because given other emerging markets in Asia, case in point being South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, we are largely sheltered compared to all of these emerging markets from Trump's tariffs. Now, we understand that you are largely neutral on India. Given that we are so sheltered from the tariffs, what are the triggers that could move your view from neutral to positive on India? Herald Van Der Linde: So, the tariffs mean there is going to be less trade around the world. We have seen already economists, our own global economist as well they have reduced the size of the pie, the economies are not growing as fast anymore. Live Events So, in that sense this is a negative for everybody. But the ones that are more exposed, of course, the ones that export in particular a lot to the US and as you rightly point out Korea, Taiwan, Japan have much bigger exposure and not only in their economies, but in their stock markets as well, in particular Taiwan is very much exposed to selling products in for example the US. Now, what we have seen in India of course is that growth is actually slowing. So far the guidance has been a little bit better than I would have anticipated, but let us see what happens. But growth is slowing, but still the feeling is that structurally growth in India over the next couple of years should be okay, so maybe earnings growth somewhere between the 10% to 15% or so and in the current kind of global environment that does not look too bad. What do we need to see really to get more positive. Now, we actually were quite cautious on India 12 months ago, not too long ago we said listen, let us be neutral because we think that is a little bit more balanced because a lot of the things that we were worried about to certain extent had already been priced in by the market or had faded. You have, for example, valuations lower, the realisation, the earnings growth is not going to be as fantastic as it were over the last years is now well priced into the market, also that you have some policy support that can come through that can be good for the market. So, in that sense India starts to look a little bit better from here on. But any sectors that you wish to flag off because what we have seen is some of those segments which have the high ownership of the FIIs specifically, those are doing well when it comes to the Indian markets and of late the valuations have also seen to reset themselves for a bit. Help us understand that sectorally how do you see the picture shaping up for the Indian markets as well as where is your interest boarding up well. Herald Van Der Linde: The sectors that we talk about with mostly foreign investors is to a large extent large liquid sectors where valuations are reasonable. So, you end up with the banks very often, private banks in particular or where valuations are maybe a little bit more elevated but where at least the growth story is relatively macro insensitive in the sense that for example is dependent on demographic or slow shifts in society that even though interest rates go up or down do not really change that much. Think about for example rising consumption or for example demand for medical and healthcare in India such as hospitals and these sort of things. So, those are the sectors where we look at as well. So, bank, consumer and I would say selective but domestic healthcare. Help us understand this dislocation on the ASEAN markets, is it market driven, is it macro driven or is it a confluence of both of these factors? Herald Van Der Linde: The dislocation we see in markets is of course too large and driven by the uncertainties that we now have related to policymaking, not only in the US but in other places as well. It is highly uncertain sort of environment and it makes it very difficult for companies to make investments. If you are going to put an investment somewhere in the world, where are you going to put it now and does it mean if you think well the tariffs are going to be imposed x and y, for example you want to be in the US or Mexico, if you are going to go to the US, but the tariffs will be reduced, then you should have gone to Mexico. But if you go to Mexico and the tariffs are not going to be reduced, you should have been in the US. So, it is that uncertainty to investments primarily by firms that is really leading to a sort of yes, dislocation in markets.
