Latest news with #HinrichFoundation
Mint
29-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Tariff ruling is a setback for Trump but doesn't end trade war
SINGAPORE : Shortly after the news broke that a U.S. court invalidated almost all of President Trump's tariffs, one Vietnam-based furniture exporter responded with an astonished text: 'WHAT???" Wednesday's shock decision by a hitherto little-known U.S. federal court sows fresh uncertainty over the U.S. assault on global trade, the latest in a series of escalations and reversals over trade policy that have whipsawed financial markets and scrambled corporate decision-making. The bottom line, say trade experts, is that the global trade war is far from over. While a setback for the Trump administration, the ruling is unlikely to deter the president from seeking to rewrite the rules of global commerce in America's favor or lead him to abandon tariffs as the principal tool to do so. The administration has already said it will appeal the ruling, and trade experts and lawyers say it has a variety of other legal avenues to prosecute the trade war that are unaffected by Wednesday's decision. 'This is just one more bump in the tariff road that we are going to be on for as long as Trump remains in office," said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation, which advocates for free and open trade. 'He loves tariffs and he loves the idea of being able to impose them at will, and I don't think he's going to give that up easily." The New York-based Court of International Trade's ruled that the president overstepped his authority in invoking powers granted to the executive in an economic emergency to impose sweeping tariffs on all U.S. trade partners April 2. The judgment undermines the legal basis for those 'reciprocal" tariffs—which the administration paused for 90 days to allow time for negotiations—that are the centerpiece of Trump's effort to rein in the U.S.'s yawning trade deficit. The court also shot down special levies of 20% imposed on Canada, Mexico and China for their alleged role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis. The administration's plan to appeal could ultimately land the case in the Supreme Court. It is unclear if the tariffs affected by the judgment will remain in place while appeals are heard. Stocks in Asia rose Thursday following the ruling, with investors warming to the prospect of faster economic growth as trade tensions ease. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 1.35%, while Tokyo's Nikkei benchmark was up 1.88%. For now, business executives say they're unsure how to respond, given the legal fog. Jeffy Ma, a hat manufacturer in Guangzhou, China, said the ruling was good news, but he hadn't yet heard from his U.S. customers. 'After all, tariffs haven't been completely canceled," he said. New cars sit near the Port of Long Beach in California, where new tariffs have constricted the flow of imports. 'Some large retailers are asking us to see if we can ship more now," said William Su, who splits his time between Taiwan and New York as chief executive officer of Teamson, which sells China-made products, such as toys, through U.S. retailers. But he said muddiness about the future of tariffs on China could deter retailers from approving new production. Some executives expressed caution over the decision, saying that Trump will likely search for other ways to reimpose steep tariffs on China and potentially other Asian economies that run large and persistent trade surpluses with the U.S., including Vietnam, South Korea and Japan. 'I don't think it will change much as U.S. customers will keep on moving products out of China as the focus of Trump is clearly China. Just adding to more instability with everyone wondering what Trump's next step will be," said Michel Bertsch, who runs a furniture-manufacturing company in Vietnam that exports to the U.S. Trump's trade broadside and his frequent reversals have sent manufacturers, retailers and shippers around the world racing to respond, upending longstanding supply chains in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Importers from China canceled billions of dollars' worth of orders after Trump slapped 145% tariffs on the country earlier this year, only to rush to revive some of them when Washington and Beijing later reached a truce to lower duties. Companies have put investment on hold amid the uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. The court's decision doesn't affect a host of other tariffs imposed on U.S. imports, including 25% levies placed on steel, aluminum and cars. Those levies were imposed using alternative legal avenues to that questioned by the New York court. Those more conventional avenues, known as Section 232 and Section 301, still give the president substantial authority to impose new tariffs, though they tend to be used to target imports in specific sectors and don't confer the broad power to tariff all goods in the way the president had sought. The Trump administration says sweeping tariffs are necessary to counter what it says are unfair practices of U.S. trading partners that have contributed to the U.S.'s large and persistent deficit in trade in goods. The 90-day tariff pause announced not long after April 2 sparked a stampede by countries eager to strike trade agreements with Trump to avoid the new tariffs. The U.S. reached agreement with the U.K. over tariff reductions and a framework for further talks, and agreed with Beijing a marked de-escalation in a bilateral trade fight that saw Washington and Beijing push tariffs on each others' products above 100%. The truce brought new tariffs on most Chinese goods down to around 30%, though some products face additional levies. But progress with other trading partners including the European Union, South Korea and Japan has been slow. Trade experts say the court ruling complicates those negotiations, since it means countries might be less willing to make concessions on trade if the courts ultimately decide the basis for Trump's move was faulty. 'Do you still negotiate knowing the whole thing might get settled with the bang of a gavel?" said Paul Nadeau, an associate professor in international affairs at Temple University's Japan campus. Write to Jason Douglas at Jon Emont at and Hannah Miao at
Kuwait Times
17-05-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
APEC trade ministers meet in South Korea amid trade tensions
JEJU: Trade ministers from the top economies that make up the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, began a two-day meeting in South Korea's Jeju Island on Thursday, as trade cooperation falters globally. US President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade war with China has shaken the export-dependent Asia-Pacific region, and countries were vying to meet the US representative for trade talks on the sidelines of the summit. What is APEC? The 21-member APEC group includes Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China, Russia, Japan, the United States, Canada, Mexico and Chile. Established in 1989, it aims to promote regional integration and economic cooperation. APEC members account for around 37 percent of the global population, 60 percent of the world's GDP and nearly half of global trade. But it has been unable to exert meaningful political influence in the face of Trump's tariffs, which have hit Asian economies hard. "APEC has always struggled to show relevance," said Deborah Elms, a trade analyst at the Hinrich Foundation, describing the group as an incubator for "non-binding ideas". Does it matter? "Growing uncertainties are placing a strain on the global economy and trade landscape," said South Korea's Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo in his opening speech. Experts say that now is the moment for the group to prove its worth, as trade tensions escalate along with increasing tariff disputes. "The APEC has never been more important," said Christopher Findlay, an honorary public policy professor at the Australian National University. In the face of Trump's tariffs, "APEC's role in articulating the continuing relevance of economic integration - and how to get there - is more important than ever," he added. What's happening to regional trade? Asian nations are "increasingly tied to China, both from a final demand perspective and via integrated supply chains", even as companies relocate to countries like Vietnam to avoid US tariffs, Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody's Analytics, told AFP. Yet the "US still remains a critical and large final destination for goods... making (Asian countries) vulnerable to the chaotic US trade policy because it relies on demand from the US consumer," she said. The organization's experts now expect a meager 0.4 percent growth in exports for the Asia-Pacific region this year, a sharp slowdown from the 5.7 percent surge in 2024. Despite their varied economic strengths and development levels, experts say that APEC members share a common interest in defending free trade. What can Jeju offer? "I hope today's meeting will lay a solid foundation for dialogue and collaboration to overcome the political and economic challenges as well as uncertainties that we encounter," said South Korea's minister Cheong. The Trump administration's protectionist moves are "an important stimulant for bilateral and multilateral negotiations outside of the US", added Moody's economist Ell. "Economies outside of the US have been scrambling to cement closer ties with each other, recognizing that the benefits of free trade have not been forgotten." However, she warned that Asian consumption, even if growing, "cannot completely replace US demand". What about the United States? It is one of US Trade Representative Greer's first international trips since taking office, and the Jeju meeting is likely to be "a critical platform for tariff negotiations beyond APEC", Korean officials have said. APEC trade ministers were hurrying to meet Greer as he entered the opening ceremony, AFP reporters saw. Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University, told AFP that "numerous negotiations could take place", particularly between South Korean and US officials. South Korean government officials told AFP that industry minister Ahn Duk-geun is expected to meet Greer on Friday. Will there be trade deals? Even a series of bilateral tariff talks between the United States and its partners would be significant, experts say. Greer met Chinese international trade representative Li Chenggang on Thursday on the sidelines of the summit, according to South Korean officials, who did not provide further details. But agreements on broader cooperation within APEC may be hindered not just by Trump's trade war, but by other ongoing tensions between the United States and China, as well as Russia. "I don't think the meeting will produce a clear outcome," warned Kim Yong-jin, a professor at Sogang University. It is more likely to result in "in a general message of cooperation" without substantive deals. Even agreeing on the rules of the game would be a step forward. "The important thing is for ministers to agree on a rational approach," said Kim. "But the United States seems focused solely on the trade deficit." - AFP
Japan Times
10-05-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
Trump's first trade pact offers faint glimpse of art of the deal
For global leaders puzzling over how to negotiate with Donald Trump, the U.S. president's inaugural pact with the U.K. offers a few clues on how much ground he's prepared to give. Thursday's announcement of their trade framework in the Oval Office shows Trump is willing to keen progress even without a final accord and that can buy political credit with the White House. There's also evidence that American levies can be talked down, but that may not be much more of a template, according to analysts. "If you thought you were going to have to have a real deal done in 90 days, you've now at least seen from the U.K. that that need not be true,' said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore. "You can have a sketch of an idea of a plan.' The framework Trump greeted as a "breakthrough' will, he says, fast-track U.S. items through U.K. customs and reduce barriers on "billions of dollars' of other exports. The British government meanwhile says tariffs on U.K. cars will drop to 10% and those on metals to zero. Final details need to be negotiated over coming weeks. Stay updated on the trade wars. Quality journalism is more crucial than ever. Help us get the story right. For a limited time, we're offering a discounted subscription plan. Unlimited access US$30 US$18 /mo FOREVER subscribe NOW That extended cliffhanger requires caution on making conclusions. Trump's insistence on preserving some proposed levies, his assent to specific carveouts, and the lack of any requirements regarding China are among highlights analysts point to. But the U.S. surplus with the U.K., as well as their longstanding ties may mean this skirmish in the president's trade war isn't much of a guide for exporters such as Japan or the European Union engaging in negotiations of their own. "You can't be optimistic just because of the U.S.-U.K. announcement,' said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management in Tokyo. "The U.S. doesn't have a trade deficit with U.K., so reaching a deal was easier.' Asian countries such as Japan, Vietnam and South Korea that have large trade surpluses with the U.S. have moved quickly to initiate talks, with few signs of progress. Speaking shortly after the deal announcement, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said negotiations with South Korea and Japan are taking "an enormous amount of time.' He added that India could be among the next countries to reach an agreement, while cautioning that work still needs to be done. The EU is also making limited headway in its own engagement with the administration. That's partly because of its sheer size, according to Sam Lowe, partner and head of international trade practice at Flint Global in London. "Whereas the option of retaliation was not really available to the U.K. due to its much smaller economy, the EU can inflict some damage on the U.S. via tariffs and other measures,' he said. "This potentially gives it more leverage, but also means any deal will probably take longer.' One component of the U.K. accord that will be analyzed closely in auto-making hubs was the cut in tariffs on British cars to 10% from 27.5% for 100,000 vehicles per year. Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's chief trade negotiator, speaks to members of the media at the Japanese Embassy in Washington on May 1. | BLOOMBERG Auto exports from Japan and South Korea to the U.S. are each more than 10 times larger than those from the U.K., and account for around one-third of their sales to America. While the deal offers some encouragement that 25% levies on Japanese and South Korean cars could be lowered, Tokyo insists on a complete removal. "We'll continue to seek a rethink of the string of tariff measures from the U.S.,' Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said Friday. Similarly, the U.K. agreement is unlikely to serve as a viable template in South Korea's talks because of the importance of cars there too, said Hyosung Kwon of Bloomberg Economics. "To secure lower U.S. tariffs on autos, South Korea may need to make concessions such as increasing imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and easing nontariff barriers on U.S. agricultural products,' he said. One way of looking at the U.S.-U.K. agreement is that the 10% baseline levy applied to all countries by the U.S. is largely fixed, some trade analysts said. The U.K. said it will keep trying to negotiate over that so-called reciprocal tariff. For other countries including Australia and Singapore, it may be the case that there's no real point in discussing going below the 10% level right now, said Elms at the Hinrich Foundation. In one exception, the U.K. was able to get U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum lowered to zero from 25% as part of what the U.S. called "a new trading union.' It was not immediately clear how this agreement might affect U.S. tariffs on the metals imposed on other countries. The framework didn't offer much insight into nontariff barriers to trade, including regulations and subsidies that U.S. officials have highlighted. The U.K. said it wouldn't loosen safety checks on food imports despite removing levies on beef and other agricultural products. Some analysts also noted the lack of any reference to China in the U.S.-U.K. framework despite indications given by U.S. officials that they want help in efforts to pressure Beijing. U.S. and Chinese officials are set to meet in Switzerland this weekend for their first round of negotiations.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's First Trade Pact Offers Faint Glimpse on Art of the Deal
(Bloomberg) -- Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks global trade. Sign up here. Is Trump's Plan to Reopen the Notorious Alcatraz Prison Realistic? As Trump Reshapes Housing Policy, Renters Face Rollback of Rights Vail to Borrow Muni Debt to Ease Ski Resort Town Housing Crunch NYC Warns of 17% Drop in Foreign Tourists Due to Trump Policies What's Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City's Streets? For global leaders puzzling over how to negotiate with Donald Trump, the US president's inaugural pact with the UK offers a few clues on how much ground he's prepared to give. Thursday's announcement of their trade framework in the Oval Office shows Trump is willing to celebrate progress even without a final accord — a move that can buy political credit with the White House. There's also evidence that American levies can be talked down, but that may not be much more of a template, according to analysts. 'If you thought you were going to have to have a real deal done in 90 days, you've now at least seen from the UK that that need not be true,' said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore. 'You can have a sketch of an idea of a plan.' The framework Trump greeted as a 'breakthrough' will, he says, fast-track US items through UK customs and reduce barriers on 'billions of dollars' of other exports. The British government meanwhile says tariffs on UK cars will drop to 10% and those on metals to zero. Final details need to be negotiated over coming weeks. That extended cliffhanger requires caution on making conclusions. Trump's insistence on preserving some proposed levies, his assent to specific carveouts, and the lack of any requirements regarding China are among highlights analysts point to. But the US surplus with the UK, as well as their longstanding ties may mean this skirmish in the president's trade war isn't much of a guide for exporters such as Japan or the European Union engaging in negotiations of their own. 'You can't be optimistic just because of the US-UK announcement,' said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management in Tokyo. 'The US doesn't have a trade deficit with UK, so reaching a deal was easier.' Asian countries such as Japan, Vietnam and South Korea that have large trade surpluses with the US have moved quickly to initiate talks, with few signs of progress. Speaking shortly after the deal announcement, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said negotiations with South Korea and Japan are taking 'an enormous amount of time.' He added that India could be among the next countries to reach an agreement, while cautioning that work still needs to be done. The EU is also making limited headway in its own engagement with the administration. That's partly because of its sheer size, according to Sam Lowe, partner and head of international trade practice at Flint Global in London. 'Whereas the option of retaliation was not really available to the UK due to its much smaller economy, the EU can inflict some damage on the US via tariffs and other measures,' he said. 'This potentially gives it more leverage, but also means any deal will probably take longer.' One component of the UK accord that will be analyzed closely in auto-making hubs was the cut in tariffs on British cars to 10% from 27.5% for 100,000 vehicles per year. Auto exports from Japan and South Korea to the US are each more than 10 times larger than those from the UK, and account for around one-third of their sales to America. While the deal offers some encouragement that 25% levies on Japanese and Korean cars could be lowered, Tokyo insists on a complete removal. 'We'll continue to seek a rethink of the string of tariff measures from the US,' Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Friday. Similarly, the UK agreement is unlikely to serve as a viable template in South Korea's talks because of the importance of cars there too, said Hyosung Kwon of Bloomberg Economics. 'To secure lower US tariffs on autos, South Korea may need to make concessions such as increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas and easing non-tariff barriers on US agricultural products,' he said. One way of looking at the US-UK agreement is that the 10% baseline levy applied to all countries by the US is largely fixed, some trade analysts said. The UK said it will keep trying to negotiate over that so-called 'reciprocal tariff.' For other countries including Australia and Singapore, it may be the case that there's no real point in discussing going below the 10% level right now, said Elms at the Hinrich Foundation. In one exception, the UK was able to get US tariffs on steel and aluminum lowered to zero from 25% as part of what the US called 'a new trading union.' It was not immediately clear how this agreement might affect US tariffs on the metals imposed on other countries. The framework didn't offer much insight into non-tariff barriers to trade including regulations and subsidies that US officials have highlighted. The UK said it wouldn't loosen safety checks on food imports despite removing levies on beef and other agricultural products. Some analysts also noted the lack of any reference to China in the US-UK framework despite indications given by US officials that they want help in efforts to pressure Beijing. US and Chinese officials are set to meet in Switzerland this weekend for their first round of negotiations. --With assistance from Zoe Schneeweiss, Toru Fujioka, Akemi Terukina, Hyonhee Shin, Shruti Srivastava, Sakura Murakami and Alberto Nardelli. US Border Towns Are Being Ravaged by Canada's Furious Boycott Maybe AI Slop Is Killing the Internet, After All Pre-Tariff Car Buying Frenzy Leaves Americans With a Big Debt Problem What the US Would Lose If Trump Pushes Out Legal Immigrants How the Lizard King Built a Reptile Empire Selling $50,000 Geckos ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Al Jazeera
18-04-2025
- Business
- Al Jazeera
Did Xi Jinping succeed in winning support against Trump's tariff war?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been on a three-nation tour of Southeast Asia. Xi is seeking to woo the region by projecting China as a source of stability in the face of global uncertainty caused by United States President Donald Trump's tariffs on 185 countries. Southeast Asia is China's largest trading partner. But many countries, including Vietnam and Cambodia, also have strong business relations with the US. Some have already reached out to the White House, hoping to negotiate a deal during the 90-day pause on tariffs. Experts say that by excluding China, Trump's conciliatory measure is aimed at isolating it globally. So, did Xi Jinping succeed in winning over the leaders of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, to rally against Trump's crippling trade barriers? Can Beijing fend off Washington's attempt to isolate it globally by using the tariff negotiations? Presenter: Dareen Abughaida Guests: Shaun Rein – Director, China Market Research Group Deborah Elms – Head of Trade Policy, Hinrich Foundation Paolo von Schirach – President, Global Policy Institute
