18 hours ago
Panel: 16-18% chance of M7+ Japan Sea quake off Kinki, Hokuriku within 30 years
A Japanese government panel says the chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake or stronger striking in the Sea of Japan off from the Kinki to the Hokuriku regions within the next 30 years is 16 to 18 percent.
The estimate was released by the government's earthquake research committee.
The committee says the possibility for the western part of the waters is lower, at 4 to 6 percent, compared to 12 to 14 percent for the eastern part.
It also says that as the fault zone that lies north of the Noto Peninsula is believed to have caused a major earthquake on New Year's Day in 2024, the chance of such a quake occurring soon in that same fault zone is almost zero.
But as for a large quake hitting in the Sea of Japan off from the Kinki to the Hokuriku regions, University of Tokyo Professor Emeritus Hirata Naoshi, the head of the committee, said, "The probability is so high that it would not be surprising if a major earthquake were to occur in our lifetime."
He also said that in addition to strong tremors, high tsunami waves would come quickly on the Sea of Japan side. He said he hopes people will prepare for another earthquake like the one that hit the Noto Peninsula.
The committee plans to assess risks for waters off Niigata Prefecture through Hokkaido.
