Panel: 16-18% chance of M7+ Japan Sea quake off Kinki, Hokuriku within 30 years
A Japanese government panel says the chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake or stronger striking in the Sea of Japan off from the Kinki to the Hokuriku regions within the next 30 years is 16 to 18 percent.
The estimate was released by the government's earthquake research committee.
The committee says the possibility for the western part of the waters is lower, at 4 to 6 percent, compared to 12 to 14 percent for the eastern part.
It also says that as the fault zone that lies north of the Noto Peninsula is believed to have caused a major earthquake on New Year's Day in 2024, the chance of such a quake occurring soon in that same fault zone is almost zero.
But as for a large quake hitting in the Sea of Japan off from the Kinki to the Hokuriku regions, University of Tokyo Professor Emeritus Hirata Naoshi, the head of the committee, said, "The probability is so high that it would not be surprising if a major earthquake were to occur in our lifetime."
He also said that in addition to strong tremors, high tsunami waves would come quickly on the Sea of Japan side. He said he hopes people will prepare for another earthquake like the one that hit the Noto Peninsula.
The committee plans to assess risks for waters off Niigata Prefecture through Hokkaido.
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Japan Times
7 hours ago
- Japan Times
Megaquake may hit central Japan within next 30 years, government panel says
Marine active faults off Japan's Kinki western region and Hokuriku central region are projected to trigger an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or larger at a probability of 16% to 18% within the next 30 years, according to a government panel. The government's Earthquake Research Committee calculated the probability of such a temblor occurring in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometers in the Sea of Japan, it announced Friday. Following the massive Noto Peninsula earthquake in central Japan in January 2024, the committee released information on the locations and lengths of the marine active faults, as well as the estimated magnitudes of possible quakes from them, in August 2024. The probability of a quake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occurring in the western nine faults, mainly off the northern coast of the Kinki region, stood at 4% to 6%, while that for the eastern 14 faults, including off the Noto Peninsula, came to 12% to 14%. "About 10% in the next 30 years is a high figure, signaling that (a large earthquake) could happen while we are alive," said University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who heads the committee. "We hope people will take measures such as making homes earthquake-resistant and securing furniture." A fault zone to the north of the Noto Peninsula was projected to have nearly zero percent probability of causing a large quake in the next three decades, as it was the hypocenter of the 2024 earthquake. Meanwhile, a fault and parts of a fault zone to the west of the peninsula were assessed as being most likely to cause a large quake among the 23 sites, at 1% to 2% each. "An earthquake like that of last year may not occur in a fault zone on the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula for a while, but it's quite possible that such a quake will occur in another area," Hirata said. He stressed the need to prepare for possible tremors and tsunamis at a scale on par with last year's temblor. The committee newly recognized a fault off the coast of Toyama Prefecture, central Japan, as an active one, finding a 0.9% to 1% likelihood of causing an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0. It will assess three faults off the coast of Niigata Prefecture, central Japan, next time, due to geological differences with other faults. Along with the long-term evaluations, the panel also released data on expected seismic intensity from quakes in the 23 faults. It said that a quake in a fault off the coast of Fukui Prefecture, central Japan, is seen registering lower 6, the third highest, on the Japanese seismic scale in some areas of Fukui's capital city of the same name. Meanwhile, a quake in a fault off Ishikawa Prefecture is projected to measure lower 6 in some areas of the prefectural capital of Kanazawa.
NHK
10 hours ago
- NHK
Panel: 16-18% chance of M7+ Japan Sea quake off Kinki, Hokuriku within 30 years
A Japanese government panel says the chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake or stronger striking in the Sea of Japan off from the Kinki to the Hokuriku regions within the next 30 years is 16 to 18 percent. The estimate was released by the government's earthquake research committee. The committee says the possibility for the western part of the waters is lower, at 4 to 6 percent, compared to 12 to 14 percent for the eastern part. It also says that as the fault zone that lies north of the Noto Peninsula is believed to have caused a major earthquake on New Year's Day in 2024, the chance of such a quake occurring soon in that same fault zone is almost zero. But as for a large quake hitting in the Sea of Japan off from the Kinki to the Hokuriku regions, University of Tokyo Professor Emeritus Hirata Naoshi, the head of the committee, said, "The probability is so high that it would not be surprising if a major earthquake were to occur in our lifetime." He also said that in addition to strong tremors, high tsunami waves would come quickly on the Sea of Japan side. He said he hopes people will prepare for another earthquake like the one that hit the Noto Peninsula. The committee plans to assess risks for waters off Niigata Prefecture through Hokkaido.
a day ago
16-18 Pct Chance of Mega Quake Predicted off Central Japan
News from Japan Society Jun 27, 2025 20:35 (JST) Tokyo, June 27 (Jiji Press)--Marine active faults off Japan's Kinki western region and Hokuriku central region are projected to trigger an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or larger at a probability of 16 pct to 18 pct within the next 30 years, a government panel said Friday. The government's Earthquake Research Committee calculated the probability of such a temblor occurring in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometers in the Sea of Japan. Following the massive Noto Peninsula earthquake in central Japan in January 2024, the committee released information on the locations and lengths of the marine active faults, as well as the estimated magnitudes of possible quakes from them, in August 2024. The probability of a quake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occurring in the western nine faults, mainly off the northern coast of the Kinki region, stood at 4 pct to 6 pct, while that for the eastern 14 faults, including off the Noto Peninsula, came to 12 pct to 14 pct. "About 10 pct in the next 30 years is a high figure, signaling that (a large earthquake) could happen while we are alive," said University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who heads the committee. "We hope people will take measures such as making homes earthquake-resistant and securing furniture." [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.] Jiji Press
