2 days ago
What Australia's shift on Palestinian state means for politics and alliances across the Asia-Pacific region
Australia's move to recognise a Palestinian state marks a historic shift in its policy and brings it in line with many of its South-East Asian neighbours.
However, Australia's decision goes against many of its Pacific neighbours to the east, who tend to align themselves with the US and Israel because of aid, development, and religion.
So how will this decision affect Australia's regional relationships, and will it encourage countries who have yet to recognise a Palestinian state to follow suit?
The news of Australia's decision was welcomed by the Indonesian government, which called the shifted stance on Palestine "courageous".
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei have recognised Palestinian statehood since its Declaration of Independence in 1988.
A year later, the Philippines did the same.
But South-East Asia has never been entirely united on the issue.
"There are already some divisions within the bloc regarding Palestine, with countries like Myanmar and Laos being less vocal, while Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are strong supporters," said Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat from the Centre of Economic and Law Studies in Jakarta.
One of the strongest advocates for Palestinian statehood is Malaysia.
It has refused to have any diplomatic relations with Israel and has prohibited people travelling on Israeli passports from entering Malaysia, said Mary Ainslie from the University of Nottingham.
After Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was reported to have spoken to one of the leaders of Hamas.
"Its leaders have strong ties to Hamas, for which they have come under much international criticism," Dr Ainslie told the ABC.
Dr Rakhmat said countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, while perhaps not as vocal, have also formally recognised Palestine.
"Thailand, on the other hand, has historically maintained a more neutral stance, but its recognition of Palestine in the past indicates some level of support," Dr Rakhmat said.
Dr Rakhmat said that South-East Asia's early collective recognition of Palestine was based on the principles of "anti-colonialism and human rights".
However, South-East Asian countries have been careful not to heavily criticise Israel as they did not want scrutiny of their own human rights records, Dr Ainslie said.
She said they were less likely to take an "active" stance supporting the Palestinian cause because of strong but hidden economic links with Israel and their technology.
"The practice of non-interference by these nations has served them well and disrupting this would potentially destabilise relations."
Dr Rakhmat said Australia's recognition of a Palestinian state could strengthen solidarity among ASEAN countries or strain relations, depending on each country's national interests regarding Palestine.
Other countries including Japan, South Korean, and Singapore have expressed support but are yet to recognise Palestinian statehood.
Experts who have spoken to the ABC agreed it was unlikely Australia's decision to recognise the state of Palestine would change any other nation's position.
Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu, and Tonga do not recognise Palestinian statehood.
Many of these counties also traditionally rely on the US for foreign aid and security.
Further indication of the Pacific's strong ties to the US and Israel came during the United Nation General Assembly in June, when six Pacific nations joined the US and Israel to vote against a permanent and immediate ceasefire between Israel and Gaza.
Professor Derek McDougall from the University of Melbourne's school of social and political sciences said religion played an important factor in Pacific politics.
He said even though countries like Fiji had a majority Indigenous population — a demographic that often supported the Palestinian cause — it did not necessarily mean they were sympathetic to Palestinians because many Indigenous Fijians were also evangelical Christians.
"In the US it's the evangelical Christians, perhaps even more than the Jews, that provide significant political support for Israel," he said.
Although Australia has taken an opposing position to many Pacific nations, Sione Tekiteki a lawyer, and senior law lecturer at the Auckland University of Technology said it would not "significantly damage" its relationships with its Pacific Island neighbours.
"The region's long standing 'friends to all' foreign policy posture means that Pacific states rarely let partners' positions on distant conflicts determine the overall ambit of their bilateral and regional relationship," Dr Tekiteki said.
He said Australia would remain a key partner across the Pacific because of the substantial aid and development it provided.
Both Dr Tekiteki and Professor McDougall believed that the credibility of Australia's climate commitments along with its posture toward China and wider regional security environment will carry far greater weight in shaping Pacific perceptions than its stance on Palestine.
