5 days ago
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
Negligible hope from Alaska summit
Sadly, there is little reason to be optimistic about the Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin summit in Alaska.
Ostensibly, the meeting between the United States and Russian presidents is about ending the war in Ukraine, or at least securing a ceasefire. In reality, minimal good can be expected.
Details of any potential deal remain undisclosed, though Mr Trump has said it would involve "some swapping of territories to the betterment of both".
In other words, if — and it is a huge if — an agreement was reached, Russia's invasion would be rewarded. The principle that international borders cannot be changed by force would be permanently violated.
This post-World War 2 consensus helps protect smaller nations such as New Zealand. Mr Trump has already blatantly disregarded it, and China would likely welcome a return to the more straightforward "might is right".
One analyst has called the summit "the first more or less realistic attempt to stop the war". The emphasis should be on the "less".
Mr Putin, pounding Ukraine down, seeks more than limited territorial gains. Ukraine, fighting for its life and soul, is in an impossible position.
The invaded country was not even invited, although Mr Trump spoke of meeting Mr Putin "first", and now talks about the possibility of three-way talks.
Mr Putin has refused several opportunities to hold direct talks with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Mr Zelenskyy has no choice but to insist that any deal without Kyiv is a "dead decision", while continuing to avoid alienating Mr Trump. As he learned from that disastrous meeting in the White House, sycophancy towards Mr Trump is mandatory.
The United States remains the key military supporter, vital for maintaining Ukraine's resistance to Russia's advances.
Long term, Ukraine might have to live without Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, and slivers of territory in the east. That will be insufficient for Mr Putin. There are suggestions that Ukraine would have to cede the entire Donbas region.
A parallel issue concerns guarantees for Ukraine against subsequent attacks, necessary for a "reliable peace", as Mr Zelenskyy's chief of staff said. Russia will not countenance what would be necessary: Western troops on the ground.
Mr Putin is not to be trusted. A Hitler-Chamberlain-style "piece of paper" agreement would only play into his hands.
Europe, bordering Russia and deeply entangled, has also been sidelined, even if US Vice-president JD Vance has been meeting European representatives.
While Europe insists the talks must include Kyiv and Europe, Mr Trump does his own thing.
The summit is already a triumph for Mr Putin. The policy of isolating him is damaged, and he has nothing to lose. Formerly characterised as an archenemy, he is accepted as meeting the US president on US soil. Instead of losing favour with Mr Trump through his obstinacy, as had begun to occur, he becomes the leader supposedly seeking peace.
Whatever happens, he helps Mr Trump revel in his cherished international spotlight.
Mr Putin has the chance to influence the US president one-to-one, a useful advantage given Mr Trump's susceptibility to the last person he speaks with. Remember, Mr Trump has openly expressed admiration for the powerful Mr Putin.
Mr Putin can also encourage the growing division within the Western security alliance between the US and Europe.
At a deeper level, Mr Trump cares little about Ukraine. Eventually, co-operation with Russia could become central to exploiting global resources, potentially drawing Russia away from China and closer to the US orbit.
The summit gives Mr Putin additional prestige in the eyes of Russians, who also see little prospect of Russia having to give up anything.
Given Mr Trump's comments about land swaps and his capricious nature, Ukraine must be dreading this summit as others contemplate its fate.
The greatest fear, which Mr Putin will fuel, is that the demands on Ukraine will be virtually impossible to accept.
If Mr Zelenskyy rejects them, the United States could withdraw its vital support.
The better scenario is simply talk and bluster. Meanwhile, the killing and destruction grind on.
