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Winnipeg Free Press
6 days ago
- Science
- Winnipeg Free Press
Satellite images reveal conditions that contributed to ‘catastrophic' wildfire season
WINNIPEG – Images from space and artificial intelligence can help detect areas prone to extreme wildfires, researchers suggest, after satellite photos showed dry parts of Manitoba ahead of its devastating wildfire season. Scientists from the University of Ottawa and Université Laval in Quebec used data collected by NASA, the European Space Agency and the Canadian Drought Monitor to review areas hit by fast-moving blazes in late spring. They found various climate anomalies, including a lack of winter snowfall and spring rain, contributed to 'cumulative vegetation stress,' or drier soil and vegetation. 'Canada is often seen as a land of endless water with countless lakes, rivers and wetlands, but … right now we face the situation of the drought. Drought is more than just no rain,' said project lead Hossein Bonakdari, an associate engineering professor at the University of Ottawa. In early May, severe wildfires broke out in various parts of Manitoba and spread rapidly due to hot, dry and windy conditions, leading to the province's worst wildfire season in 30 years. Flames also claimed the lives of two people near Lac du Bonnet, northeast of Winnipeg. The researchers used the data to track irregularities in snow coverage, precipitation, temperature and soil moisture. 'While each anomaly alone appeared moderate, the observed spatial and temporal overlap of moderate anomalies suggests a potential synergistic effect that significantly preconditioned the environment for ignition,' says the study published in the journal Earth. Researchers have said wildfire seasons are expected to become worse each year. The intensity of fires this year is a 'consequence' of drought conditions and the last few fire seasons, said Bonakdari. His team says the study underscores the importance of integrating climate and biosphere anomalies into wildfire risk monitoring, in order to be better prepared for wildfire seasons accelerating under climate change. They say using satellite imagery can help determine which areas are at risk of early-season fires. 'This is particularly important in a changing climate, where such compound conditions are expected to become more frequent, subtle and hazardous,' says the study. A spokesperson for the Manitoba government said in an email that the province 'already uses satellite data and drought monitoring when it prepares for each wildfire season.' However, Canada doesn't have its own satellite system to monitor active forest fires across the country, and instead relies on partners to access images from space. That's expected to change in 2029, when the federal government said it plans to launch seven satellites into orbit under the WildFireSat program. It's to collect daily data on active forest fires, allowing officials to determine which are the most dangerous and predict their behaviour. Wednesdays What's next in arts, life and pop culture. That information would help officials make better use of firefighters and equipment — and ultimately save lives, the president of the Canadian Space Agency said earlier this year. Infrared sensors are to be installed on the satellites to produce thermal imaging, allowing officials to assess the intensity of fires and track their progress. However, with Canada's current wildfire season now the second-worst on record, Bonakdari said governments need to act now. 'The conditions are ready to again have a type of catastrophic event.' This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 12, 2025.
CBC
7 days ago
- Science
- CBC
Satellites detected early hints of 'catastrophic' wildfire season in Manitoba, researchers say
There were multiple overlapping signs on the Prairies detectable from space that provided an early hint of the devastating wildfire season Manitoba's still fighting through, researchers say. An analysis of satellite imagery by University of Ottawa and Université Laval researchers suggests moderately low rainfall in April, a moderately early spring snow melt, moderately dry soil, moderately parched vegetation and a moderate decline in overall "greenness" of vegetation had a compounding effect that helped transformed Manitoba into a "highly flammable landscape." "All these drivers ... create such a catastrophic event in, around the area," said Hossein Bonakdari, associate professor in the department of civil engineering at the University of Ottawa. Bonakdari and his co-authors say their findings support more widespread use of of satellite imagery for wildfire forecasting and emergency preparedness planning as wildfire seasons grow longer and more intense due to climate change. Their work was published this month in the journal Earth. The researchers combined historical drought data from the Canadian Drought Monitor with a review of satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellites to look for precursors to wildfires. Canada has relied on the European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 for several years to help monitor wildfires from space. In 2029, the Canadian Space Agency hopes to launch its own satellite, WildFireSat, so emergency officials could become less reliant on collaborators outside Canada. Bonakdari his collaborators focused on identifying preconditions for wildfires in Manitoba this year — the worst wildfire season in three decades. Researchers found low soil moisture, an earlier warm-up in the spring with less precipitation and a big drop in snow coverage. Hint hidden in leaves They also looked at foliage from above — leaf coverage both from needled coniferous and leafy deciduous trees — as well as how green vegetation was in the lead-up to the fire season. The idea is if the vegetation is browner, it's holding less moisture. Less moist vegetation means more potential fuel for fire. Their analysis found that this April, the month before fires kicked off, Manitoba's forest canopies were less lush and less green than usual. That's in contrast to a number of dry Aprils in the past couple decades — in 2008, 2018 and 2023 — that didn't result in the scale or intensity of fires seen this season, the study states. They could also see where fires that rapidly spread in the north and east of the province started on May 4 and 14 amid pockets of warm and windy days. In hindsight, the stunted leaf development and green-up looks like an early sign that vegetation was under stress, maybe due to water scarcity and warmer temperatures earlier in the year, according to the study. That hypothesis is further bolstered when you consider the fact there was nearly eight millimetres less rainfall compared to the norm this April, and 40,000 square kilometres less snow pack in Manitoba in the winter lead-up to the fires. "Such early-season dryness leads to rapid fuel desiccation, particularly in fine fuels like grasses and small shrubs, which are critical to initial fire ignition and spread," the authors state. "Reduced snow insulation, combined with dry and stressed vegetation, likely amplified the vulnerability of Manitoba's landscape."' Slightly drier conditions start adding up The research suggests you don't need a record heat wave, drought, low precipitation or low leaf coverage or greenness all together in a given year to get the fire season Manitoba is having. You might just need several years with "a little less snow, a little less rain, slightly drier vegetation, slightly less wet soil" that compounds over time to make a place like Manitoba increasingly at risk of more severe and earlier wildfire seasons, said Bonakdari. With soil moisture levels "among the most negative in the historical record" in early 2025, the only other thing you may need is a few a warmer-than-usual days and a spark — whether through lightning, a poorly snuffed out campfire or cigarette, or some other human error. That's why Bonakdari would like to see more widespread use of remote sensing tech via satellites to help identify riskier zones and potentially focus on them more closely ahead of wildfire season. "We need to do some acceleration … of early warning systems," he said. "Satellite images and AI algorithms, etc, [are] opening new windows for us to benefit from." Climatologist Alex Crawford, who wasn't part of the study, said there are limitations to which conclusions can be drawn by focusing on pre-conditions for fires. He also said we don't necessarily "need AI to tell us that it was a drier April, or that there was less snow present." Crawford, assistant professor in the University of Manitoba's environment and geography department, was encouraged by the potential predictive value of another element of the study. "One thing we don't have as good of information about from the weather stations that we have is soil moisture," he said. "If we can get that from satellites, it's ... more directly relevant to how dry the plants are than say, 'What's the temperature? What's the snowpack? What's the precipitation."
