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Business Recorder
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Soybean futures stabilise on US-China trade war truce; wheat dips on USDA report
BEIJING: Chicago soybean futures eased on Tuesday, after hitting a three-month high in the previous session following a temporary truce in the US-China trade war and a bullish US Department of Agriculture report. The most-active CBOT soybean contract eased 0.3% to $10.68 a bushel, as of 0248 GMT, following three sessions of gains. On Monday, China and the US reached a deal to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs, boosting hopes for revived Chinese demand for US farm goods. The USDA's supply and demand report estimated 2025-26 US soybean ending stocks at 295 million bushels, lower than analysts' 362 million bushels estimate. For 2024-25, US soy stocks were pegged at 350 million bushels, below April's forecast of 375 million bushels and analysts' expectations of 369 million bushels. China's benchmark Dalian soymeal futures rose 0.21% on the bullish USDA report, shrugging off news of a temporary truce in the China-US trade war, as analysts cautioned that uncertainty could persist ahead of the US soybean marketing season. The Asian nation projected a decline in soybean imports for the 2025/26 crop year due to reduced soymeal use in its livestock sector. Wheat fell 0.58% to $5.12 a bushel, near lifetime lows, pressured by high US and global wheat stocks in the USDA report, weak exports, and favourable weather. The USDA estimated both US and global 2025-26 wheat ending stocks above analyst estimates. Soybeans, corn up on US-China trade optimism; wheat flat 'We think that wheat has overshot to the downside enough and US wheat is the cheapest in the world so it will find solid demand at these levels,' said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney. Corn dipped 0.06% to $4.48 per bushel. 'Corn is trying to react to a bullish global USDA report longer term versus an increase in the US corn stocks and market doing very little as they balance each other out,' Houe added. The USDA projects US corn ending stocks at 1.415 billion bushels for September 1, 2025, down from 1.465 billion bushels in April, and below analysts' 1.443 billion bushels estimate.
Business Recorder
06-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Chicago soybeans dip as traders track Sino-US trade talks
BEIJING: Chicago soybean futures fell on Tuesday as traders weighed US-China trade developments, and concerns that President Donald Trump's proposed EPA funding cuts could reduce biofuel demand. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) slipped 0.29% to $10.43 a bushel, as of 0207 GMT. Markets are watching for signs of a thaw in US-China trade tensions, with China's commerce ministry saying on Friday that it is 'evaluating' a US offer to hold talks on tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Trump's proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding cuts have unsettled traders, who worry it could reduce demand for biofuels made from soy and other oils, weighing on soybean prices. Traders are also positioning ahead of next Monday's United States Department of Agriculture supply and demand report. 'Most expectations are for 'more of the same' in the sense that there will be about the same amount of wheat around, slightly more corn and slightly less beans - this has led to some initial pressure on the market' said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney. Houe added that signs are emerging that US grain is becoming affordable enough to spark demand, and he anticipates the markets will stabilize at current levels. Soybeans fall as traders await US-China trade talks The USDA's weekly crop progress report showed soybean planting was 30%, above the five-year average of 23%, but just shy of the 31% forecast. About 51% of US winter wheat rated good-to-excellent, the highest for this time of the year since 2020. US corn planting reached 40%, ahead of the five-year average of 39% but slightly below expectations of 41%. Wheat fell for a second consecutive session, dropping 0.24% to $5.30 a bushel, while corn rose 0.22% to $4.55 a bushel, after three days of losses. 'Corn was supported by some profit taking from the fall in prices the day before and by wheat/corn spreading,' Houe said. In Brazil, crop consultancy Celeres raised its 2024/25 total corn production forecast to 135.4 million metric tons, up from 134.6 million tons. Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade corn, soybean, wheat, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts on Monday, traders said.
Reuters
14-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
China set for rapeseed meal shortage after 100% duty on top supplier Canada
BEIJING, March 14 (Reuters) - China is likely to face a supply shortage of rapeseed meal by the third quarter of this year as Beijing's tariffs on shipments from top exporter Canada disrupt trade and as alternative sources are unlikely to make up the deficit. Rapeseed meal futures traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have jumped more than 8% since Beijing announced on Saturday a 100% retaliatory tariff on imports of rapeseed meal and oil from Canada effective March 20. "The introduction of this tax increase policy instantly broke the original trade balance," consultancy Mysteel wrote in a note. Chinese tariffs on rapeseed meal and oil came as a surprise to the industry which had been expecting higher duties instead on the oilseed since Beijing started an anti-dumping investigation in September into shipments from Canada. "Everybody was expecting authorities to announce duties on rapeseed but we were all taken by surprise when this announcement came on oil and meal," said one trader in Singapore. "It is going to hit feed processors hard as they were looking at importing larger volumes of Canadian meal instead of the oilseed." Rapeseed is an oilseed crop which is processed into oil for cooking and a variety of other products, including renewable fuels, while the remaining rapeseed meal is used as high-protein animal feed and fertilizer. China relies on top grower Canada for more than 70% of its rapeseed meal imports and nearly all of the oilseed imports. Rapeseed is also known as canola. For now, China has ample supply of rapeseed, meal and oil after hefty imports in the fourth quarter last year, buffering against an immediate supply shock. But traders and analysts warned of an impending shortage by the third quarter of this year when the stockpile depletes. LIMITED INTERNATIONAL AVAILABILITY Chinese customs allows rapeseed meal imports from 11 countries, including Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Japan, Ethiopia, Australia, India and Belarus, providing options for alternative supplies. But availability of the product is limited in the international market. In 2024, China imported 2.02 million metric tons of the meal from Canada, followed by 504,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates and 135,000 tons from Russia, according to customs data. Some of China's demand could shift to Russia, Ukraine or India, but these countries are unlikely to be able to fully satisfy Chinese appetite, traders and analysts said. "No country really has the scale Canada has," Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney, said. Australia, the world's second-biggest rapeseed exporter, does not have much surplus or the crushing capacity to significantly raise its rapeseed meal exports, Houe said. India is the world's second-largest rapeseed meal exporter and ships around 2 million tons of meal annually, although higher prices capped 2024 shipments to China at only 13,100 tons. In order to make up for the supply gap, the market may rely more on domestic rapeseed meal or turn to soybean meal, Rosa Wang, analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, said. The majority of animal feed producers in China rely on soymeal as a key protein source. However, some industries, particularly aquaculture, prefer rapeseed meal. China in its policy documents said that it will increase the planting of rapeseed this year.
