Latest news with #Hougan
Yahoo
30-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Veteran analyst who called 2024 rally poised to nail Ethereum ETF prediction
Veteran analyst who called 2024 rally poised to nail Ethereum ETF prediction originally appeared on TheStreet. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan is well-known for his sharp takes on the crypto markets as he combines enormous institutional experience with a forward-looking outlook. The veteran analyst predicted in September 2024 that he expected a crypto rally soon. Lo and behold, Donald Trump's presidential re-election in November indeed led to an astonishing rally. Now, Hougan has shared a note he wrote on June 24, 2024, a month ahead of the U.S. launch of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on July 23, 2024. A crypto ETF is a type of fund that provides indirect exposure to crypto assets such as ETH, allowing traders to buy and sell ETF shares on traditional stock exchanges. Crypto ETFs are designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies and offer indirect crypto exposure without the need to directly own virtual had predicted that Ethereum ETFs will attract $15 billion within 18 months of the launch. Ethereum ETFs surpass Bitcoin ETFs It has been more than 12 months since the launch of Ethereum ETFs, which saw Wall Street giants such as BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Franklin Templeton (NYSE: BEN), Fidelity, Grayscale, and Bitwise launching their offerings. As per Coinglass, the total net inflow into these funds over the last 12 months has surpassed $9.65 billion at the time of writing. If these ETFs accumulate around $5.5 billion over the next six months, Hougan's prediction will indeed come true. Invest in Gold American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA Notably, net inflow into spot Ethereum ETFs has risen sharply over the past few days, data shows. During July 21-29, these funds led with $2.1 billion in inflows. Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, saw an inflow of only $309.4 million during the same period. Comparing the price trajectories of the two leading cryptocurrencies is also crucial. While BTC fell 0.5% over the last seven days, ETH rose more than 4%. As BTC rose 9.6% over the last month, ETH rose a massive 53%. Over the past year, BTC soared more than 78% but ETH rose only 14% — underlining that the Ethereum rally is pretty recent. At press time, BTC was trading at $117,804.74 and ETH was trading at $3,804.65. Veteran analyst who called 2024 rally poised to nail Ethereum ETF prediction first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 30, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 30, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How Bitcoin's boom-bust cycles are changing
Bitcoin price has long followed a familiar rhythm: every four years, a halving slashes the new supply of coins, setting off a bull run. Then, when the price gets too frothy and sentiment a pinch too euphoric, traders take profit and the price nosedives into a bear market. That playbook is now dead, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. But not everyone agrees with him. 'The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker,' Hougan said on X on Friday. 'The halving is half as important every four years, the interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, and blow-up risk has attenuated.' For Hougan, the structural forces behind Bitcoin's classic boom-and-bust cycles — like the halving's impact on supply — are weakening. Meanwhile, a new macro and regulatory environment is working in Bitcoin's favour. The ETF boom The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024 kicked off a multi-year inflow trend that could reshape the entire asset class, said Hogan. And institutions are only just beginning to pile in. Pension funds, endowments, and national wealth platforms are still onboarding. At the same time, regulation is gaining clarity, Wall Street is laying infrastructure, and billions in capital are entering the space — fuelled by legislative breakthroughs like the Genius Act passed earlier this month. And that's not to mention the frothy Bitcoin treasuries, which have been on a shopping spree like none other. According to in the past 30 days, 22 public companies have joined the 138 that already held Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The total is now 160 and counting. 'The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic 'four-year cycle' forces,' said Hougan, 'and they don't sync with halving cycles.' New territory But some disagree. 'I think the exact opposite is true,' Nick Hansen, CEO of Bitcoin mining outlet Luxor, told DL News. 'When we're in the depths of a bear market, the treasury companies are not going to operate like die-hard bitcoiners that continue to stack bitcoin.' If Bitcoin suffers a 50% drawdown, treasury companies will be hard pressed to find capital like they do today, explained Hansen. They also have operational costs, and could face shareholder pressure to liquidate their holdings if their shares plummet alongside the Bitcoin they hold. And that's not to mention the potential for Bitcoin ETF holders to start selling, which 'would further decimate the price,' he said. The muted loop Some agree with Hougan, but take a more tempered approach. 'I'm somebody who thinks it's intact, but it's going to be muted,' James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said on the Kyle Chasse podcast on July 24. 'If you think of it like a rollercoaster, the amplitude won't be as bad.' The hallmark boom-and-bust swings — like Bitcoin's 80% crash in 2018, or its post-all-time-high dive in 2022 — are now being tempered by a maturing investor base, a growing roster of institutional allocators, and a more permanent class of buyers. Indeed, traditional volatility cycles, driven by speculative hype and harsh corrections, are being dampened by new forms of capital. 'Institutions are coming in, more stable money, more forced buyers like Bitcoin treasuries,' he said. 'Instead of 80% drawdowns, maybe we see 50%.' One open tap? Financial advisors buying Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Bitcoin ETFs buyers are relentless, even in the face of geopolitical tension. These now hold 1.2 million Bitcoin worth about $147 billion, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard. Seyffart explained that these wealth managers make up the bulk of spot ETF buyers, and have been allocating up to 5% of client portfolios. But those weights can balloon fast. What happens when Bitcoin's price rises and their allocations swell to 10%? 'Maybe they're not ready for that,' he said. 'They're going to sell.' Supercycle theory Talk of Bitcoin escaping its boom-and-bust fate isn't entirely new. In fact, former Kraken executive and long-time Bitcoiner Dan Held has been championing a 'super cycle' thesis since 2020. That's the idea that Bitcoin would eventually break free from its four-year halving rhythm and enter a prolonged, parabolic expansion driven by unprecedented global demand. Held argued that a unique mix of macro conditions — institutional interest, rampant money printing, global instability, and rising distrust in fiat — would combine to create a once-in-a-generation bull run with no dramatic bust on the other side. 'Never before has Bitcoin had so many tailwinds at once,' Held wrote at the time. 'This cycle could be the one that breaks the pattern.' But that theory hasn't fully materialised. Bitcoin peaked in late 2021, then collapsed more than 75% during the 2022 bear market, mirroring previous cycles almost exactly. Still, even believers in the four-year cycle reckon the Bitcoin economy is evolving. Fast. 'The funnel for institutional capital is completely full right now with more trying to get in,' Hansen told DL News. 'Where we go from here is new territory, for sure.' Pedro Solimano is DL News' Buenos Aires-based markets correspondent. Got at a tip? Email him atpsolimano@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitwise CIO on Ether's ‘Demand Shock': Why ETH's Rally Has Staying Power
Ether's recent price action may be fueled by more than just sentiment. According to Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan, the world's second-largest crypto asset is undergoing what he calls a 'demand shock,' driven by surging inflows into exchange-traded products and new corporate treasury strategies. In a thread posted Tuesday on X, Hougan broke down why he believes ether's rally is only getting started. Since mid-May, he estimates that spot ETH exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate treasuries have acquired a combined 2.83 million ETH — roughly $10 billion at current prices. That's 32 times greater than the amount of net new ETH issued during the same period. 'Sometimes, it really is that easy,' Hougan wrote, referencing the role of supply and demand in determining short-term prices. He noted that while bitcoin has benefited from this dynamic for more than a year, ETH only began experiencing the same effect recently. According to Hougan, spot ether ETPs launched in July 2024, but saw limited traction through the first half of 2025. By May 15, total inflows stood at just $2.5 billion, with ETPs acquiring about 660,000 ETH — closely matching the 543,000 ETH newly minted by the network. During this period, he says, ETH lacked the same support that drove bitcoin higher: 'There were no major Ethereum Treasury Companies to speak of.' That changed in the past two months. Hougan pointed to the emergence of publicly traded treasury holders like BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) and SharpLink Gaming (SBET), which have accumulated hundreds of thousands of ETH while staking for yield. With ETP momentum also accelerating, the combined pressure has created a structural supply imbalance. Looking ahead, Hougan predicts demand could rise even further. If treasury firms and ETPs purchase $20 billion in ETH over the next 12 months — as he believes they could — that would equate to roughly 5.33 million ETH at today's prices. By comparison, Etherfeum is projected to issue just 800,000 new ETH over the same timeframe. 'ETH is of course different from BTC,' he acknowledged. 'Its price is not set purely by supply and demand, and it doesn't share BTC's capped long-term issuance. But right now, that doesn't matter.' At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3,658, down 0.69% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk Data. Over the past seven, 14, and 30 days, it is up 15.8%, 40.1%, and 62.5%, respectively. Technical Analysis Highlights According to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data model, ETH traded in a $134.34 range from July 22 at 10:00 UTC to July 23 at 09:00 UTC, swinging between $3,763.70 and $3,629.35. Institutional resistance emerged near the $3,750–$3,760 zone during July 22's evening session, with volume peaking at 445,297 contracts. Ether slid 1% during final trading hours, closing at $3,661.35, as corporate sellers stepped in above $3,740. The $3,700 mark has become a key pivot, acting as both support and resistance as corporate positioning flattens. Volume spikes above $3,740 suggest large-scale distribution and potential near-term consolidation. Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crypto is Going Mainstream and 'You Can't Put the Genie Back in the Bottle,' Bitwise Says
The U.S. is on the verge of passing landmark crypto legislation, and if it succeeds, the impact could be profound, not only by unlocking growth, but by significantly reducing risk, asset manager Bitwise said in a report on Monday. The growth story is straightforward according to Bitwise. Regulatory clarity would empower major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan (JPM), BNY Mellon (BK), Nasdaq (NDAQ), to fully build in crypto, the report said. That means billions in new investment and a path to migrate trillions of traditional assets onto blockchain rails. The infrastructure is ready; it just needs Washington's go-ahead, according to the asset manager. This week the House of Representatives is voting on the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill, and the GENIUS Act, which regulates stablecoins in the the top democrat of the Senate Agriculture committee said the market structure bill needs serious changes. If these bills pass through Congress, "you can't put the genie back in the bottle," wrote Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. The deeper, under appreciated shift will be in risk, wrote Hougan. Crypto's reputation has been battered by collapses including FTX, Terra/Luna, 3AC, Celsius, Mt. Gox. These weren't just failures of business models; they were failures of oversight. Without clear U.S. regulation, bad actors thrived in offshore shadows, and investors paid the price. Stronger laws wouldn't have prevented every scandal, but they would've stopped many, the report said. Bitwise notes that crypto's volatility, and previous 70%+ drawdowns, have kept institutions on the sidelines. If legislation eliminates the wildcard risk of offshore implosions, those extreme crashes may become far less frequent. And no, the political winds aren't likely to reverse, Bitwise said. The GENIUS Act passed the Senate 68–30, with bipartisan support including 18 Democrats. Wall Street wants in, and as major institutions deepen their crypto footprints, political support will only grow. When BlackRock, JPMorgan, and millions of Americans are invested, crypto becomes part of the system, too embedded to ignore, and too integral to unwind, the report in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Tokenization Market Has A 4,000x Growth Potential According Bitwise: Here's 'The Cleanest Way' To Invest In The Narrative
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The tokenization market is a potential 4,000x opportunity that is "having a moment," according to Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan. Hougan said this in a note to investors on Tuesday, citing statements from BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink and recent developments in the space. In Fink's annual shareholder letter this year, he wrote: "Every stock, every bond, every fund-every asset-can be tokenized." The move towards this future appears to be underway. Don't Miss: — no wallets, just price speculation and free paper trading to practice different strategies. Grow your IRA or 401(k) with Crypto – . In the past month, Bybit, Kraken and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) have all launched tokenized stock trading for non-U.S. clients and Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) has applied to launch the product for U.S. customers. Meanwhile, financial institutions have poured $135 million into Canton Network, a new Layer 1 blockchain purpose-built for stock and bond trading. Mercado Bitcoin has also announced plans to tokenize $200 million worth of assets on the XRP Ledger. Additionally, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins has expressed interest in fostering the sector's advancement. Amid these developments, Hougan said the tokenization market could represent a 4,000x opportunity if Fink is correct, pointing out that stocks and bonds alone are a $257 trillion market combined. Trending: New to crypto? on Coinbase. Hougan said "the cleanest way" to position for the potential tokenization wave is to hold "a basket of the top Layer 1 blockchains and infrastructure plays." He specifically named Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Chainlink as promising choices. "One could argue for concentrating your bets—especially since Ethereum is the current leader in tokenization and is well positioned to win market share—but that seems overly specific to me," he said. "Many different players are getting bites at the apple. It would be unfortunate to call the tokenization trend early only to bet on the wrong horse." Beyond these cryptocurrency assets, Hougan said investors could also gain from holding a mix of stocks that could benefit from tokenization. Examples cited by Hougan include Robinhood, Coinbase and Circle (NYSE:CRCL).The latest note from Hougan comes as he suggests that the tokenization wave may be set to impact the market prices of related assets soon. He said while it may take over a decade for the majority of stock and bonds trading to happen on-chain, there was a possibility of a 1-5% market penetration in a few years. "It would translate into trillions of dollars ... more than any other crypto application or asset, including Bitcoin," he said. Hougan said this outcome was inevitable due to the 24/7 nature of blockchain technology and the superior settlement speeds. He said it was just last year that the stock market moved from a two-day settlement system to a one-day settlement system for the first time in a century. "In what other industry would we celebrate matching the operating speed from 1934?" Hougan quipped. In contrast, trades can settle in seconds on the blockchain. Read Next: Named a TIME Best Invention and Backed by 5,000+ Users, Kara's Air-to-Water Pod Cuts Plastic and Costs — Image: Shutterstock This article The Tokenization Market Has A 4,000x Growth Potential According Bitwise: Here's 'The Cleanest Way' To Invest In The Narrative originally appeared on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
